Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

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Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

At least 10 of 26 players on the Thunder's 2021-22 roster at some point are currently not on an NBA roster. Same number for 2020-21. Lots of fairly meaningless churn before. Transition from last season to this season saw a fair amount of change too, but fewer guys dropping out of NBA, at least at this time.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder beat last season's best regular season team and lose to the 3 worst. That's a wrap on pre-season.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder comments on lineups and other stats at https://x.com/bballstrategy/

if interested.

Some early leaguewide notes as well.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

More at twitter, fwiw.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder fall back to 25th on average home attendance per game.

19th on SRS with 7th easiest SOS.

Team efg% down to 10th.

Offensive rebounding rate about 25% worse than 29th place. Defensive rebounding rate down to 27th.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

If you go by the team performance data, you should play SGA - Holmgren with 3 of Dort, Joe, Wallace and Wiggins. Maybe sub in Bertans or JWill but less and no data on those possibilities.

Of the 4 main combos, Coach D has played one for 4 minutes (super fabolous). The others are less than 4 minutes or not played (didn't search to find the tiny data).

Giddey could be subbed in but doesn't have the sub-lineup data with the others to justify it.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

L.Dort - J. Giddey - C. Holmgren - J. Williams remains almost -6pts / 48 minutes and the worst quad in 5 most used.

All 6 pairs comprised by the 4 are negative and all are the worst pairs in the 12 most used. Even aided bemeath the surface with some amount of time with SGA.

All the trios comprised of the 4 are negative, without Dort being the worst at -8 and without Holmgen being the best at slightly below neutral.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder tied for 8th to 11th in west by win%, 12th by SRS.

Defensive efficiency down to 22nd.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

First game with Jaylin Williams back, zero minutes or seconds with Holmgren.

Wiĺ it be tried; and if so, what happens?

Not trying would be a mistake.


Huge contrast with Sarr. Way better on assists and turnovers. Way behind on ts%, or% and BPM. About 350% higher usage, with Sarr at an abnormal 5.5%.

J Will -13 +/- on the court in first outing. Sarr at +12.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

JDub way worse on BPM in early going than last season (almost -3 compared to slightly above neutral). Way less takeaways and modestly high own turnovers.


Giddey, maybe warming up but on average has garbage shooting stats and notably lower rebound and assist numbers. -6 BPM.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder about 15% above average games played. About 60% above average on lineups used.

Just 3 lineups more than slightly above 1 minute per game.

Starters are 2nd most used in league but worst performing among 9 most used.

Compared to the 18 lineups over 50 minutes, the Thunder starters are slightly above average on points / 100p, slightly below on assists and bottom 1/3rd on 3ptas. Dead last on offensive rebounding at a measly 4% and only 1/6th the best (Magic).
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Thunder could use a vet, team oriented PF shooter. Like Satic. Not retained and no known effort to retain.

Currently 41st best BPM of minutes qualified for Warriors. With big game to defeat Thunder last night.

But playing for 3 years from now, not now.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

Holmgren on vs. off, opponents moderately better on offense against him.

Thunder offense much better with him and the offensive impact is much bigger than the defensive negative but know (and follow) both parts of the story. Chet on the court, opponents shoot and score more efficiently even afterwthe blocks. They also rebound better on both baskets when he is on. His primary net impact is as a shooter / scorer.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

SRS slips to 21st. Negative is 290% as big as last season's 15th place.

Need some better game results to get moving up towards last season's level or above. Development, coaching, lineup syngery can do that. Not thus far.
Crow
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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

Post by Crow »

By BRef: SGA - Holmgren +9; Joe - Wallace +11; SGA - Joe +15, Joe - Holmgren +17 / 100p...

By NBA com, SGA - Joe +26, SGA - Wallace +9...

The quad? +47 pts / 100p... in 10 minutes.

Ridiculous.


Holmgren and 3 other starters besides SGA? Mild to moderately negative.

SGA and 3 other starters besides Holmgren? Neutral to barely positive.
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