Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

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This season start vs. last season:

3 above average factors / 5 below for each

Last season 2 top 10, 3 bottom 10s. This season 2 and 4.

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Better than most on team, but so far Cason Wallace is mainly a low usage shooter by the stats & metrics. Joe is mostly just an average usage shooter. Neither is getting more than low levels of assists and rebounds. Too early to be definite about Wallace's defense. Joe on the other hand is probably well below average on defense.

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Jalen Williams' big drop-off on BPM from slightly positive to -3 was unexpected and not talked about. It is a handful of things. Shooting, turnovers, defense.

While most locked him in as a long-term core piece / starter long ago and the Thunder did too; I don't consider him deserving to be a locked in starter at this point. Top 7 unless pushed out by later draft picks but not a locked in starter if team results don't improve.

Player pairs are 50/50 mild positives and negatives with other starters and full rotation. Best in limited minutes with Wiggins and Sarr (bench players).

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SGA - Dort - Holmgren is the core right now. By results. +9 / 100p. Best of biggest minute trios, but only 7th most used. Probably should see at least a 50% increase in minutes.

Giddey and Williams part of insider design but not a clear design and not particularly effective / justified at this point.

Bring on the better big to partner with Chet at minimum. If you add another key perimeter is should be mainly about synergy, not personal stats.

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Thunder go to 3-1 against East but are 0-3 against the west, largely a repeat of last season's pattern and problem.

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Giddey with -6 BPM on Saturday. Almost -7 today.

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Still zero minutes of Holmgren - Jaylin Williams.

An ESPN story yesterday suggests it is coming.

Why not try tomorrow against Cavs?



Starters have crept up to a mild positive at the moment.

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A few days ago, BRef gave the Thunder a quite low chance of making playoffs outright. Now they say 82%. I know not to take either very early mark seriously, but the swing is huge and would probably be lessened if the projection was regressed or more regressed.

But I guess Pelicans and Kings could improve and the Thunder would still be in unless someone else below them did the same. That could be Griz but not looking like it at the moment.

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Thunder have used 104 lineups in 8 games. Averaging 13 brand new lineups every game.

Only 3 used 1+ minutes per game for season.

102 pairs. Top 10 (used 15-25 minutes per game) are exclusively filled with 5 players. SGA-Giddey has risen to 2nd best in that group.

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SGA now leads Holmgren by 5% on BPM.

SGA with 30% lead on Holmgen by DPM. Holmgren added by high draft rank but also moderated by lower expectations of rookies. Shai 25th in league right now, Holmgren 48th by DPM.


Jalen Williams, 188th, Dort 172, Giddey 414. None of those say starter, average or good starter for a good team.

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Thunder with league best / perfect so far 5-0 record against East. Winless 0-3 against West. Only Pistons have a worse record against West in terms of more losses (0-5).

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Still winless against West.

5-4 but SRS 35% below last season at the moment.

Fouling rate has increased to 11th most.

Defensive rebounding is now 29th to go alongside 30th on offensive rebounding.

Own FGAs per game are down 6% from last season while opponent's are up 5%.
Own FG% is up but makes are down.

Plethora of ballhandlers but assists are down almost 2%.

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Saric, 13th best defensive rebounding rate in league among minutes qualified. 15th on offensive rebounding rate. Not retained.

Holmgren ranked slightly better than 50th on both. 50th is effectively a below average #2 rebounder in the rotation of an average team.

Talk about planning to play Holmgren some at PF with a Center? How about doing it?

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Micic trade options beginning Dec. 15? Bulls should be one.

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Starting unit back to about neutral. Next 3 biggest lineups are all terrible. Rest under 1 minute per game.

Holmgren negative with all other starters but SGA. Great with Joe and Wiggins.