APBRmetrics

Thunder outside free agent targets could include imo: Bol Bol, Kornet, Jalen Smith, Hartenstein, Olynyk, Saric, Bitadze...

But at least one internal free agent (Wiggins) is more likely the priority, along with future internal free agents.

Almost 60 games played, Thunder have 1 lineup over 1.5 minutes over game for season.

Starters at about +6 in 10.5 minutes per game. 14th best +/- among lineups used over 200 minutes. There are only 29 of those lineups averaging over 3.5 minutes per game, less than 1 per team. Among the 9 above 400 minutes, it is 7th. 5 top contenders have biggest lineups that are +9 to +17. Thunder short of that. The 5 are Bucks, Celtics, Clippers, Nuggets and Timberwolves. Nuggets are only team with 2 lineups over 300 minutes, both over +10.


440 total lineups used by Coach D. Almost 46% positive though. In regular season.

Dieng yr to yr stat trends:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1763 ... 83762?s=20

Thunder probably least want to see Lakers in 1st round based on season record. Lakers might prefer Thunder to TWolves, depending on possible KAT return based on their matchup records.

Just 2 Thunder lineups used in even 1/3rd of games. Just 5 in 25+%. Just 31 in 10+ games. 459 in less than 10 games. Only 15% in more than 3 games.

% of total time given to 5 most used lineups went from 29% earlier to 41% during last 10 games. It can be done, that far or further. Intentionally or not.

Only 3 of the 5 were positive in last games but they provided 98% of the total net margin.

Only free agent outside their own this summer that I would focus on is Jalen Smith.

SGA - Holmgren is almost +11pts / 100p. SGA without Chet only loses a small fraction. Holmgren, no SGA loses almost 8 pts. Time with neither on court is lost at -6 rate.

SGA- JDub is equally good as SGA - Holmgren. Take out JDub, SGA without loses 1 pt more vthan with Holmgren. Take out SGA and JDub without SGA loses 11pts. Without either, loses but by only 3 pts

Clear that SGA is worth a lot. Not as clear on the other two.

System runs with SGA. Is there any other system?

SGA - Giddey is similar to the other pairings. Without Giddey, SGA does 1 pt better. But Giddey, no SGA essentially breaks even, better than the other two withouts.without.

SGA with Dort modestly less effective than these other primary pairs. SGA without Dort is nearly twice as good as with Dort. Dort without SGA is +6. Dort to bench? They won't consider it but the numbers lend support to it massively.

SGA with Dort and Giddey modestly less effective than the specified pairs. SGA without these 2, over 50% better team results. But "why" want that? Stick to the design.

SGA - Giddey, no Dort the best combo checked yet at +18.

Could arrange rotation to be SGA - Giddey / no Dort, SGA with none and Giddey - Dort (a nice enough +5) or Dort without either (+8). On paper that would have gains everywhere over current practice.

Context has some affect, would have to prove a new rotation. But th we choice is test a new rotation or don't.

Build around SGA of course. But is anybody else absolurely essential to retain? Not by this data.

With all of my top 3 draft prospects likely to be available to Thunder at or around 12th, imo they should probably take one of them (Edey, Holmes or Broome).

Thunder coaching and ultimate achievement comparisons:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1780718240945287567

A win is a win but that was pretty weak.

Pelicans were +10 on offensive rebounds.

Thunder in 12th place on or%, below league playoff and regular season averages and their own regular season average.


Thunder had smallest margin of victory of first games. Below playoff average on offensive rating, efg%, ts%, fta rate, 3pta rate, both rebound rates.

Defense was barely enough for the win. Pelicans without their biggest star.

Game 1:

3 biggest minute lineups, +16
Other 11, -14.

39 Thunder lineups used in 3 games. 17 positive.

Starters are only 11th most used lineup in playoffs but by far the best performing to date. Only 1 of the 10 most used is more than half as good.

6th best offensive efficiency so far, best defense.

6th best offensive efficiency is unlikely to win a title.

Timberwolves, 1st and 3rd.
Nuggets, 8th and 8th.
Celtics, 4th and 7th.

Thunder getting about 83% of playoff points from 5 starters.

Zero so far from Hayward.