APBRmetrics

Spurs expected to get to .500 and some expect more. I have a lot of skepticism.

Jazz need plenty of changes. Unclear what the true timeliness is. Doubt it picks up much anytime soon.

Fair to assume Spurs want Wembenyama to be more like Tim Duncan than Giannis?
Wemby's FT rate was down almost 25% in yr 2 from yr 1. 3 presumed lead guards would seem to take the ball out of his hands more.

Fox as Parker, Castle and Harper aspiring to Ginobili or half Gibobili?

Who will be Diaw, D Green? Splitter, Belinelli, Mills, DeColo, Bonner, Mills, Baynes? 2013-14 Spurs were deep and based on vets.

Kornet and Olynyk can cover some of the vet big roles. Barnes can be Diaw for awhile I guess. McLaughlin can be P Mills. Maybe Waters can be Belinelli.

Who, if anyone, will take the Kawhi Leonard role? Maybe the better of Castle and Harper? Castle's defensive on / off was quite bad and the offense was weak. But see what happens. Do the players and coach / organization cling to PG label or will they be wings or undefined basketball players?

Does Wemby need to be Tim Duncan and / or Kawhi?

Who are Vassell and Sochan? Champagnie and K Johnson? Carter Bryant? Retain long-term or get better players for specific role fits?

How many roles to let guys grow into vs. getting now vets?

Stepping back from names and roles for just a moment, what is the team design? Last season Spurs were below average on both sides of court with the only factor strengths being ball security largely from Paul and not fouling. 6 factors in bottom 13.

What factors will Fox improve? Any? His FT rate was only slightly above league average and lowest since rookie season. What do the Spurs believe he will accomplish? Did they really want him or did they get taken by unexpected request / plan?

Who else besides Wemby will improve any? How much will having him back, presumably, help on which factors? In 2023-24, they were also weak on 6 factors. Good but not great on defensive rebounding instead of own turnovers.

Everything or almost everything Spurs has question marks, plenty to prove or improve. Turn corner this season? I don't see it yet. Not impressed by guard core or their expectation of prominence.

Only Giddey pair with Bulls that was good was with Huerter. On expiring contract.

What works with Giddey? Not what they have as used.

Needs to be a new era, with or without Giddey.

I'd say with new team leadership at every level but no expectation that is going to happen anytime soon.


Almost everything worked at team level with Giddey on Thunder in 2023-24 til the Mavs series. But it was not to continue. It could work with somebody else. Maybe, if well constructed and coached.

Heat done with changes before season? Underwhelming. Unwise.

Of 8 weakest teams how many will notably improve this coming season? I'd guess 2-3 is most likely.

On Raptors lineup management:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1970038136060387771

Zion's overall Darko projection has been recovering for awiile, entirely because of defensive improvement to mildly positive.
Offensive Darko peaked in middle of yr 2. Slow drift since.

Next season may well be different.

Lesser known stat & metric details about Wemby:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1975055399834566668

Kings:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1977100552468414615

Giddey with mild to moderate pairs with starters. Mostly negative with main bench rotation.



I ended up projecting Spurs at 42 wins. Hot start. Still have questions but reviewing data.

Wemby had high turnovers in pre-season but cut regular season turnover rate so far by over 50% from last season. Major changes in other areas including ts%, league leading defensive rebounding rate, more than doubling of ft rate and BPM. Assist rate continues to decline though.

Wemby used in 29 lineups so far. Only one much above 2 minutes per game. Less than half positive.

Bulls off to great start.

Buzelis with good scoring efficiency but very weak defensive rebounding and A-TO. 9th best team +/- on and on / off.

Alvarado Jones Murphy Williamson Queen is a neeed to test lineup.

Alvarado Queen is good. Williamson Queen great, in short samples.

Alvarado Williamson sucked as used. So use it differently.

Fears Jones Murphy Williamson Missi is a need to test more / good so far lineup. Try with Queen too.

Try other 1 change variations from these two lineups using these 7 guys or Bey.

Get hundreds of minutes of Williamson Queen as soon as possible. Either that is the future or it isn't.


Trading Poole is likely difficult to impossible but try with other guys and don't expect much but get something different. Poole with Jones or Bey or both.

Morant down to -6 BPM and another injury today. At the rim frequency has gone down every season, to less than 50% of career average and less than 40% of rookie peak. At the rim fg% is lowest of career and well below league average. That, abysmal 3pt shooting and career worst D-BPM pull him way down. Not much else has changed substantially but the combo is plenty.