APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Mar 21, 2025 5:51 pm**

Season at 85% and rookies projecting to 61 total eWins.
With at least 450 minutes:

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.0   Zach Edey     Mem  .609   15.3  14.1   1.3    .9   2.4  2.3  1.45
3.6   Alex Sarr     Was  .483   12.7   8.9   2.5    .9   2.0  2.1  1.03
3.4 Donovan Clingan Por  .568   10.4  14.7   1.6    .9   2.3  3.2  1.36
3.3   Yves Missi    NOP  .557   10.0  10.7   1.4    .7   1.6  1.9   .78
3.2   Kel'el Ware   Mia  .600   14.4  11.0   1.3   1.0   1.6  1.8  1.23

3.2  Stephon Castle SAS  .511   15.3   4.1   3.9   1.2   2.8   .3   .75
2.8 Kyle Filipowski Uta  .605   13.5   9.8   2.8   1.1   2.3   .3   .97
2.4   Za. Risacher  Atl  .538   14.3   5.7   1.5   1.1   2.0   .8   .65
2.4   Jaylen Wells  Mem  .555   13.1   4.8   1.9    .8   1.3   .2   .54
2.2  Dalton Knecht  LAL  .585   15.1   5.0   1.3    .6    .9   .2   .66

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.8  Bub Carrington Was  .511    8.6   4.8   4.0    .9   2.0   .3   .36
1.7   Tr. Da Silva  Orl  .524   10.3   6.0   2.2    .7   1.3   .4   .46
1.6   Quinten Post  GSW  .612   17.9   8.4   2.6   1.0   1.7  1.1  1.27
1.6  Isaiah Collier Uta  .478    8.2   4.8   7.1   1.3   4.2   .3   .42
1.6  Kyshawn George Was  .498    8.5   5.3   2.5   1.3   2.0  1.1   .38

1.5  Matas Buzelis  Chi  .535   11.8   5.9   1.3    .5   1.6  1.7   .52
1.4   Ryan Dunn     Phx  .513   10.4   6.2   1.3   1.0    .9  1.2   .53
1.3   Jared McCain  Phl  .583   18.1   3.4   3.0    .9   2.2   .0   .91
1.3   Ron Holland   Det  .537   11.3   5.7   1.6   1.4   1.8   .3   .50
1.2  Jonathan Mogbo Tor  .499    7.8   8.0   2.5   1.5   1.7   .9   .52

e82    per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.0   Adem Bona     Phl  .682   10.3   8.8    .7    .8   1.9  2.3   .71
1.0  Justin Edwards Phl  .558   10.7   4.5   1.7   1.3   1.3   .5   .46
.9   Karlo Matković NOP  .618   10.5   8.6   1.4    .8   2.0  2.0   .65
.8   Ajay Mitchell  OKC  .597   13.1   3.7   2.9   1.3   1.7   .2   .60
.8  Ja'Kobe Walter  Tor  .502   10.6   5.0   1.7   1.3   1.6   .3   .38

.8   Jamal Shead    Tor  .508    9.1   2.5   5.5   1.2   2.8   .3   .28
.8  Jamison Battle  Tor  .597   12.6   5.0   1.4    .4    .8   .4   .45
.6   Oso Ighodaro   Phx  .603    7.3   7.2   1.9    .9   1.3   .9   .35
.6  Rob Dillingham  Min  .506   11.9   3.3   5.4   1.2   3.3   .1   .51
.5  Tidjane Salaün  Cha  .441    6.7   7.6   1.6   1.0   1.6   .4   .24

e82   per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.4   Reed Sheppard  Hou  .426    7.9   4.2   2.8   1.7   1.7   .9   .34
.4   KJ Simpson     Cha  .422    8.2   4.8   3.6   1.4   2.3   .3   .31
.3   Pelle Larsson  Mia  .534    8.7   3.5   2.0   1.0    .9   .2   .22
.3  Keaton Wallace  Atl  .526    8.7   2.8   3.6   1.6   2.2   .6   .26
-.3  Cody Williams  Uta  .434    5.2   4.1   1.6    .8   1.6   .5  -.14

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... _2025.html

Posted: **Sun Apr 06, 2025 4:57 pm**

With the season at 95%, some 105 rookies have appeared, with 1/3 of them getting >500 minutes:

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.2   Zach Edey      Mem  .610   14.8  14.1   1.4    .9   2.2  2.2  1.47
3.7   Kel'el Ware    Mia  .603   14.7  11.5   1.3   1.0   1.5  1.8  1.29
3.6   Yves Missi     NOP  .557   10.0  11.0   1.4    .6   1.5  1.9   .85
3.5  Stephon Castle  SAS  .508   14.8   4.7   4.3   1.2   2.9   .3   .79
3.5   Alex Sarr      Was  .480   12.5   8.4   2.4    .9   2.3  2.1   .93

3.4  Donovan Clingan Por  .559    9.9  14.3   1.7   1.0   2.0  3.0  1.27
2.9  Kyle Filipowski Uta  .583   12.9  10.1   2.6   1.1   2.4   .4   .96
2.6   Za. Risacher   Atl  .541   14.6   5.5   1.4   1.0   1.9   .7   .68
2.5   Jaylen Wells   Mem  .555   12.9   4.8   1.9    .8   1.3   .1   .56
2.3   Dalton Knecht  LAL  .587   15.6   4.9   1.4    .6    .8   .1   .73
2.1   Matas Buzelis  Chi  .554   13.1   6.1   1.4    .6   1.7  1.8   .68

e82    11-20          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.9  Bub Carrington  Was  .516    8.8   4.8   4.0    .8   2.1   .3   .38
1.7  Isaiah Collier  Uta  .486    8.3   4.7   6.9   1.3   4.1   .3   .43
1.7   Quinten Post   GSW  .593   16.6   7.9   2.5    .8   1.8   .9  1.16
1.6 Tristan Da Silva Orl  .519   10.4   5.9   2.2    .7   1.2   .4   .49
1.6  Kyshawn George  Was  .496    8.5   5.4   2.6   1.4   2.0  1.0   .42

1.6   Ron Holland    Det  .551   12.1   6.0   1.8   1.4   2.0   .4   .61
1.5   Ryan Dunn      Phx  .511   10.3   6.3   1.2   1.0   1.0  1.1   .55
1.5   Adem Bona      Phl  .694   11.7   9.4    .9   1.0   2.1  2.6   .90
1.4  Jonathan Mogbo  Tor  .498    7.9   8.1   2.6   1.5   1.9   .9   .58
1.4  Karlo Matković  NOP  .635   12.3   8.9   1.6    .9   1.9  1.8   .89

e82    21-30          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.4  Justin Edwards  Phl  .555   11.6   4.7   1.8   1.4   1.5   .5   .54
1.3   Jamal Shead    Tor  .503    9.6   2.7   5.7   1.4   2.7   .3   .43
1.2  Ja'Kobe Walter  Tor  .516   11.6   5.0   2.0   1.4   1.6   .3   .52
1.1   Jared McCain   Phl  .583   17.8   3.4   2.9    .9   2.2   .0   .83
1.0  Jamison Battle  Tor  .592   12.8   5.2   1.4    .5    .9   .3   .52

.8   Tidjane Salaün  Cha  .459    7.3   7.9   1.6    .9   1.6   .4   .33
.8   Oso Ighodaro    Phx  .609    7.5   7.2   1.8    .9   1.2   .9   .39
.8   Ajay Mitchell   OKC  .597   13.1   3.9   2.9   1.4   1.7   .2   .63
.7   Pelle Larsson   Mia  .530    9.5   3.9   2.5   1.3   1.1   .3   .40
.6   Jaylen Clark    Min  .589   10.6   3.4   1.4   2.6    .5   .1   .57

e82    31-35          tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.6   Reed Sheppard   Hou  .456    9.0   4.5   2.9   1.7   1.7   .9   .49
.6   Gabe Vincent    LAL  .540    9.5   2.1   1.9   1.2   1.0   .3   .19
.6   Rob Dillingham  Min  .503   11.5   3.2   5.5   1.4   3.3   .1   .50
.5   KJ Simpson      Cha  .440    8.3   4.6   3.7   1.3   2.3   .3   .33
-.4  Cody Williams   Uta  .415    5.0   3.9   1.6    .8   1.5   .5  -.16

Rookies should total ~ 66 eWins.

Posted: **Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:06 pm**

6 of top 7 are centers.

Posted: **Sun Apr 06, 2025 9:43 pm**

#1 rookie Zach Edey attempted a pair of 3-pointers late in his senior season at Purdue, making one.
Averaging almost one per game this year, he's hit them at the league avg %.
I notice it's the exception among this year's centers (and PF playing mostly C) to not have a long distance shot.

Code: Select all

2025         3fg  3fga   3fg%
Alex Sarr    100   315   .317
K Filipowski  72   201   .358
Quinten Post  71   173   .410
Kel'el Ware   34   105   .324
Br Carlson    20    51   .392
Zach Edey     18    50   .360
K Matkovic    17    53   .321
J Mogbo       16    58   .276
D Clingan     13    44   .295
.            361  1050   .344

2024         3fg  3fga   3fg%
Holmgren     129   349   .370
Wemby        128   394   .325
.            257   743   .346

That's as far as I got in quantifying a 'trend', in rookie C coming to the NBA ready to shoot the long ball.
Someone with a StatHead subscription could probably look into this some more.

Posted: **Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:17 am**

Gathering the last 5 years' rookies who got at least 1.0 eWin in their first year, by (b-r.com) position totals:

Code: Select all

pos   eW     Min   e484
SF   65.1   43598   .72
SG   50.7   37551   .65
PF   57.6   32350   .86
PG   41.6   31074   .65
C    73.9   27616  1.29

120 such players in 5 years = 25 per year avg.
Centers total the fewest minutes but are twice as good/effective/proficient as guards, at this beginning of career.

Top 10-11 at position. Bigs:

Code: Select all

eWin   Center     tm   yr   e484      eWin  Power F    tm   yr   e484
9.1   Wembanyama SAS   24   2.09      5.9  P Banchero Orl   23   1.17
8.6   C Holmgren OKC   24   1.73      5.9   S Barnes  Tor   22   1.09
5.5   W Kessler  Uta   23   1.57      5.8   E Mobley  Cle   22   1.21
4.2   Zach Edey  Mem   25   1.55      3.9   T J-Davis GSW   24   1.66
3.9   J Duren    Det   23   1.14      3.7  Tari Eason Hou   23   1.01
3.8   I Stewart  Det   21   1.27      3.6   J Smith   Hou   23    .71
3.7  Kel'el Ware Mia   25   1.36      2.8   H Jones   NOP   22    .57
3.6   Yves Missi NOP   25    .91      2.5  GG Jackson Mem   24    .99
3.5   Alex Sarr  Was   25    .99      2.2   X Tillman Mem   21    .98
3.4   D Lively   Dal   24   1.28      1.9  P Williams Chi   21    .46
3.4   D Clingan  Por   25   1.33

Wings:

Code: Select all

eWin   Small F    tm   yr  e484     eWin   Shooting G   tm   yr  e484
4.8   F Wagner   Orl   22   .95      4.6   J Williams  OKC   23   .97
3.9  Am Thompson Hou   24  1.36      4.1   A Edwards   Min   21   .86
3.8   B Miller   Cha   24   .78      3.1  B Podziemski GSW   24   .76
3.5   K Murray   Sac   23   .71      3.0   Jaden Ivey  Det   23   .62
3.5   B Mathurin Ind   23   .75      2.9   Josh Giddey OKC   22   .83
3.4   Saddiq Bey Det   21   .86      2.9   Jalen Green Hou   22   .65
3.2   J Jaquez   Mia   24   .73      2.5   J Wells     Mem   25   .59
3.2   J'S Tate   Hou   21   .75      2.3   C Duarte    Ind   22   .72
2.9   J Kuminga  GSW   22  1.18      2.3   D Bane      Mem   21   .72
2.7   C Whitmore Hou   24  1.49      2.0   T Maxey     Phl   21  1.06
2.7  Deni Avdija Was   22   .65

Point Guard:

Code: Select all

eWin   Point G     tm   yr   e484
4.1  C Cunningham Det   22    .94
3.9   LaMelo Ball Cha   21   1.30
3.5   S Castle    SAS   25    .85
3.3   I Quickley  NYK   21   1.28
2.7   B Hyland    Den   22   1.01
2.7  T Haliburton Sac   21    .74
1.9  B Carrington Was   25    .41
1.7   I Collier   Uta   25    .46
1.7   C Anthony   Orl   21    .64
1.7   D Mitchell  Sac   22    .39

Posted: **Tue Apr 15, 2025 12:57 am**

Rookies totaled 71 eWins, split equally between east and west.
With >500 minutes:

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.3   Zach Edey      Mem   66  21  .614   14.5  14.6   1.3    .9   2.3  2.2  1.46
3.8   Kel'el Ware    Mia   64  22  .598   14.4  11.6   1.3   1.0   1.4  1.8  1.28
3.8  Stephon Castle  SAS   81  27  .513   15.6   4.7   4.4   1.2   3.0   .4   .85
3.6  Donovan Clingan Por   67  20  .565   10.1  14.5   1.7   1.0   2.0  3.0  1.29
3.5   Alex Sarr      Was   67  27  .477   12.6   8.4   2.6    .9   2.3  2.1   .93

3.5   Yves Missi     NOP   73  27  .560   10.1  11.1   1.5    .7   1.6  1.9   .88
3.2  Kyle Filipowski Uta   72  21  .585   13.3  10.4   2.5   1.1   2.4   .5  1.01
2.7   Za. Risacher   Atl   75  25  .552   15.1   5.5   1.5   1.0   1.9   .8   .73
2.3   Jaylen Wells   Mem   79  26  .553   12.6   5.0   1.9    .8   1.3   .1   .52
2.2   Matas Buzelis  Chi   80  19  .565   13.4   6.1   1.4    .6   1.7  1.8   .71

eWin   per36 rates    tm   G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
2.1   Dalton Knecht  LAL   78  19  .589   14.9   5.0   1.3    .6    .9   .2   .66
2.0  Bub Carrington  Was   82  30  .510    9.0   4.7   4.2    .8   2.1   .3   .38
1.8  Jonathan Mogbo  Tor   63  20  .490    8.1   8.4   3.1   1.6   1.9   .9   .68
1.8   Adem Bona      Phl   58  16  .696   12.5   9.4    .8   1.0   2.3  2.6   .90
1.8  Isaiah Collier  Uta   71  26  .487    8.8   4.7   6.9   1.3   4.1   .3   .46

1.6 Tristan Da Silva Orl   74  22  .518   10.3   5.9   2.2    .8   1.2   .4   .47
1.6   Ryan Dunn      Phx   74  19  .515    9.9   6.7   1.2   1.1   1.0  1.0   .55
1.5  Kyshawn George  Was   68  27  .498    8.6   5.3   2.6   1.4   1.9  1.0   .41
1.5   Quinten Post   GSW   42  16  .591   16.0   7.8   2.5    .8   1.7   .9  1.09
1.5   Ron Holland    Det   81  16  .547   11.7   6.0   1.8   1.4   1.9   .4   .56

eWin   per36 rates    tm   G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.4  Karlo Matković  NOP   42  19  .632   12.4   8.8   1.5    .9   1.9  1.8   .88
1.3   Jamal Shead    Tor   75  20  .495    9.7   2.7   5.8   1.5   2.7   .2   .45
1.2  Justin Edwards  Phl   44  26  .555   11.3   4.7   1.8   1.4   1.5   .5   .48
1.2  Ja'Kobe Walter  Tor   52  21  .517   11.5   5.1   2.0   1.5   1.6   .3   .53
1.0   Jared McCain   Phl   23  26  .583   18.0   3.4   2.9    .9   2.2   .0   .80

1.0  Jamison Battle  Tor   59  18  .588   12.1   5.1   1.4    .6    .9   .3   .48
.8   Oso Ighodaro    Phx   61  17  .601    7.3   7.0   1.9    .9   1.3   .9   .37
.7   Ajay Mitchell   OKC   36  17  .581   12.9   3.6   3.1   1.3   1.6   .2   .60
.7   Tidjane Salaün  Cha   60  21  .450    6.9   7.7   1.7    .8   1.6   .4   .26
.7   Reed Sheppard   Hou   52  13  .464    9.1   4.3   3.2   1.7   1.9   .9   .46

eWin   per36 rates    tm   G  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.7   Pelle Larsson   Mia   55  14  .537    9.5   3.9   2.4   1.3   1.0   .3   .38
.6   KJ Simpson      Cha   36  23  .433    8.2   4.6   3.9   1.5   2.4   .3   .33
.5   Jaylen Clark    Min   40  13  .588   10.1   3.5   1.5   2.4    .5   .1   .49
.5   Rob Dillingham  Min   49  11  .501   11.7   3.3   5.4   1.3   3.4   .1   .49
.5   Antonio Reeves  NOP   44  15  .574   12.8   3.2   1.5   1.0   1.5   .2   .37

.4   Keaton Wallace  Atl   31  16  .501    8.4   3.4   4.3   1.8   2.2   .6   .40
.3   Dillon Jones    OKC   54  10  .459    6.4   6.9   3.0    .9   1.7   .2   .28
.1   AJ Johnson      Was   22  27  .473    8.5   2.9   3.2    .7   1.9   .2   .10
-.4  Cody Williams   Uta   50  21  .415    4.7   3.9   1.6    .8   1.5   .5  -.19

Posted: **Sat Jun 28, 2025 7:09 pm**

32 total rookies in last 5 years with +3 or better eWin as rookies.

7 of them 2024-25 rookies. Close to average.

APBRmetrics

2025 Rookies

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