APBRmetrics

The changes in the game and the improvements in training have always been incremental, so I don't think there have been material changes from one year to the next. It's more one generation to the next.

The point of looking at overall talent population is that we should be able to use that to estimate how much true talent has increased. If you're taking the right tail of a bell curve with 5 million young men versus 500 million young men... That's a big jump.

Now, there is an interesting nature versus nurture discussion here. There are only so many people naturally 6 ft 9 or above, with reasonable athletic capabilities. What percentage are then interested enough in basketball as a youth and have socioeconomic opportunities to get the training to reach their potential?

450-600 million, maybe, play pickup or shoot hoops occasionally in a year or once or say they do, as speculated by FIBA and others. Probably male and female. Perhaps 2/3rds in China, fwiw according to another source. Perhaps 20 million males in U.S.


A bit less than 600,000 male US high school team players. Starters of NBA size or close is probably a small subset.

4-5k in DI.

75,000+ professionals globally supposedly, though after the first 3-5-10k they are probably not remotely NBA prospects.

75-80% of NBA players are born in US and some additional fraction immigrated before reaching NBA prospect status.

17 from Africa currently, 100+ ever. That probably increases. Number from China may or may not. A dozen or so ever.



Whether there will ever be a female NBA player is a topic with several layers. 2 drafted, none played a real game. I'd guess there will be others considered. Play? Maybe someday. Stick? "Succeed"? I'd guess it will likely be a player 6-5+ with a good or great 3pt shot, at least 165 pounds (probably over 175), almost certainly a wing or converted to wing, good mobility, perhaps long arms, probably advanced handle & passing. Will they have played in boy's high school or NCAA or some other women's or men's pro league first? Probably. Better than Delle Donne. How much? 6-8+ would be interesting, if the perimeter skills are high level.