Analysis of basketball through objective evidence
http://apbr.org/metrics/
RAPM for quads and triplets is definitely not something I'll do in the near future considering that it performs worse in out of sample testing. That's not really something I want to invest time in.Crow wrote:Jerry, would you consider doing S3PM and / or RAPM for triplets or quads for this season? The bigger sample sizes might be desirable, though there is a trade off. Still with overall RAPM, S4PM and one or more of these, one have multiple snapshots and maybe some depth of vision.
I think those are good summations of the uses and limitations of the tool. Because it is so dependent on the quality of the player's teammates, I think it's use is limited to comparing players who are on the same team. As J.E. says, I'm thinking it's a way to present results that are plus-minus-ey in nature, without going whole hog for APM or RAPM. But I need to think about it some more, it's an intriguing way of thinking about things.J.E. wrote:It's certainly not meant for predictions. As already stated, I think it's a nice tool when explaining why player A is most likely better (in terms of influence on team points) than player B to someone who does not know regression or chose to ignore RAPM results. It's pretty straight forward and more intuitive. It's certainly useful when trying to make a point like Nowitzki being better than Marion(or Collison over Perkins) because it's a more straight forward way to compare players, without a complicated algorithm behind itmystic wrote: We can see that certain players are doing better than others, maybe it can show some chemistry issues for some lineups/players, but I'm hard pressed to see anything more in those numbers
Cool. Thanks for the update.J.E. wrote:I made updates to S4PM and (un)informed RAPM. Chris Paul is #1 in both RAPM versions. Garnett seems, again, to be playing quite well despite his age. James Harden seems to be the driving force behind OKC's offense (but his defense leaves much to be desired). The Bobcat's rookies, Biyombo and Walker, are in last and 10th to last place. Stoudemire should probably never play again, this season, if NY wants to win
Any reason why you removed the S4PM for prior seasons?J.E. wrote:I made updates to S4PM and (un)informed RAPM.
Quite amazing his performance level. Last night was a perfect example what the difference between someone like Garnett and someone like Kevin Love is.J.E. wrote:Garnett seems, again, to be playing quite well despite his age.
So true. I said that as they signed Tyson Chandler, that they should get rid of Stoudemire otherwise that signing is complete nonsense.J.E. wrote:Stoudemire should probably never play again, this season, if NY wants to win
They have $51.3m tied up next season for Afflalo, Harrington, Chandler, Andersen, Gallinari, Brewer, Koufos, Lawson, Faried, Hamilton plus $1.4m guaranteed for Mozgov and $1.2m as caphold for the #18 pick. These are 11 roster spots, we have to add $0.5m for one more caphold. That makes overall already $51.8m or about $6.2m in capspace (assuming the salary cap will not change, which is not unlikely). And to use that capspace they have to renounce the full MLE, the BAE, the rights to all players like McGee or Fernandez. If they want to keep Mozgov, we can reduce the capspace to $5m. Well, I don't see how they can sign any player close to Nene for that amount of money.EvanZ wrote:My guess is Denver is simply preparing to have cap space going into the off-season.
Well, I would like to know their reasoning behind that. There were rumors about them trying to trade Nene basically right after they signed him. So, it is an interesting development, especially when we keep in mind how great they handled the Anthony trade.EvanZ wrote: I don't see them re-signing McGee. They're not that dumb. I thought Nene has several good years left, but maybe they know something we don't?