APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sun Mar 17, 2013 5:40 pm**

Could be diminishing returns of course - players who were on inferior teams last year so had marginally greater production.

Posted: **Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:30 pm**

Good suggestion; but what other teams? Philly was a better team last year.
Randolph fits the bill, from Minny. But he plays 3 mpg.

Posted: **Mon Mar 18, 2013 1:44 am**

Mike G wrote:Good suggestion; but what other teams? Philly was a better team last year.
Randolph fits the bill, from Minny. But he plays 3 mpg.

Yes, but was Philly last year better than Denver this year? Nope.

Posted: **Mon Mar 18, 2013 11:52 am**

Ha, OK. Both were/are 5th best team, by SRS.
By MOV, Den 4.91, Phl 4.24
The improvement from last year's Nuggets to this year's version is that average player-minutes have been replaced with above-avg minutes.

Posted: **Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:48 pm**

By SRS this year's Denver team is roughly four wins (in an 82 game season) better than Philly last year, which is a pretty large difference. However I don't disagree that the box-score numbers say the starters aren't the reason for that.

Posted: **Tue Apr 02, 2013 7:30 pm**

With 90% of the season completed:

Code: Select all

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.94 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .519   12.4   5.1   4.0    .81      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14
2.71 Westbrook,Russel Okl  .520   26.1   5.7   9.3   2.22      .529   26.2   5.0   6.2   1.73
2.70   Blatche,Andray Brk  .541   20.6  10.3   2.1   1.63  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
2.57   Sanders,Larry  Mil  .522   13.0  12.4   1.4   1.45      .458    8.4   7.6   1.5    .76
2.53   Harden,James   Hou  .591   26.5   4.8   5.7   1.89  Okl .642   21.1   4.7   4.1   1.44

2.50   Durant,Kevin   Okl  .628   31.0   7.9   4.7   2.45      .598   29.7   8.0   3.5   2.04
2.10   Bledsoe,Eric   LAC  .512   16.1   5.6   5.4   1.22      .446    8.8   4.7   4.1    .52
2.01  Vasquez,Greivis NOH  .500   15.8   5.2   8.8   1.28      .507   13.1   3.9   6.5    .89
1.93   Lopez,Brook    Brk  .556   25.0   9.2   1.2   1.79  NJN .516   26.0   5.1   1.6   1.34
1.89   Walton,Luke    Cle  .457    6.8   6.2   5.8    .60      .422    4.1   3.8   2.7   -.49

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.89   Evans,Reggie   Brk  .488    6.7  17.3    .9   1.20  LAC .484    4.2  11.8    .6    .68
1.87  Webster,Martell Was  .601   16.1   4.8   2.2    .88  Min .526    9.9   5.3   1.3    .44
1.72   West,David     Ind  .531   21.9   8.7   3.8   1.75      .524   17.4   8.6   3.1   1.39
1.70   Smith,J.R.     NYK  .511   19.7   5.8   3.3   1.30      .504   15.5   5.0   3.3    .96
1.69   Walker,Kemba   Cha  .508   18.3   3.7   5.1   1.17      .457   14.8   4.7   4.4    .86

1.67   Vucevic,Nikola Orl  .524   13.8  13.2   1.7   1.31  Phl .459   12.3  10.1   1.2    .97
1.63 Thompson,Tristan Cle  .507   13.0  11.5   1.4   1.10      .460   11.4   9.9    .6    .76
1.48   Hill,George    Ind  .556   17.8   4.2   5.4   1.33      .548   14.1   4.1   4.4   1.04
1.40   Lee,David      GSW  .550   19.5  11.2   3.7   1.65      .540   20.1   9.6   2.6   1.40
1.38   Robinson,Nate  Chi  .534   20.7   3.3   6.1   1.40  GSW .527   16.2   2.9   5.8   1.03

And biggest decliners in estimated equivalent wins contributed, in minutes played:

Code: Select all

.eW+     per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-3.21   Howard,Dwight LAL   .548   17.4  13.2   1.5   1.62  Orl .550   22.1  14.9   2.0   2.27
-2.79   Lin,Jeremy    Hou   .528   15.2   3.7   7.7   1.14  NYK .540   21.5   4.3   8.9   1.72
-2.37  Iguodala,Andre Den   .508   13.7   5.7   5.5   1.07  Phl .527   14.8   6.5   5.2   1.53
-2.25   Johnson,Joe   Brk   .514   17.4   3.3   3.8    .88  Atl .551   22.2   4.1   4.0   1.34
-2.24   Gortat,Marcin Phx   .535   13.3  10.3   1.3   1.05      .568   18.4  11.8   1.0   1.64

-2.19   Nash,Steve    LAL   .597   15.4   3.2   7.6   1.08  Phx .617   16.0   3.6  12.3   1.74
-2.09 Williams,Marvin Uta   .506   11.0   5.9   1.5    .50  Atl .532   15.1   7.5   1.7   1.12
-2.08  Wallace,Gerald Brk   .486   10.4   6.5   3.3    .75  NJN .519   15.8   7.4   3.1   1.27
-2.02   Smith,Josh    Atl   .490   18.8   9.0   4.4   1.55      .490   21.2  10.7   4.2   1.95
-1.84   Noah,Joakim   Chi   .521   13.3  11.7   3.9   1.44      .551   14.6  12.4   3.1   1.83

-1.75 Haywood,Brendan Cha   .434    5.7   8.9    .8    .23  Dal .509    9.2  10.4    .6    .96
-1.75  Stuckey,Rodney Det   .492   14.6   3.7   3.8    .67      .536   19.5   3.5   4.1   1.11
-1.61   Hawes,Spencer Phl   .509   15.3   9.8   2.5   1.19      .512   15.7  10.7   3.6   1.60
-1.54   Bass,Brandon  Bos   .514   11.3   7.2   1.3    .64      .517   15.9   7.4   1.1   1.02
-1.53   Gee,Alonzo    Cle   .491   11.7   4.7   1.8    .42      .505   12.7   6.5   1.9    .74

Posted: **Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:01 pm**

Lance Stephenson's .23 eW+ lead over the field is the largest of the year.
The top 5 from each installment so far:

Code: Select all

eW+    Nov25 @ 15%    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.58   Morris,Marcus  Hou  .543   14.9   7.6   1.3    .84      .345    7.9   3.9    .7   -.16
.55 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .591   14.0   4.2   4.0    .88      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14
.54   Kidd,Jason     NYK  .763   15.1   4.6   5.2   2.07  Dal .521    8.7   5.4   7.3   1.23
.48   Dragic,Goran   Phx  .575   19.6   3.2   8.1   1.74  Hou .558   16.8   3.6   7.0   1.27
.47  Aminu,Al-Farouq NOH  .553   13.7   9.5   2.5   1.17      .471    9.5   7.7   1.3    .58

eW+    Dec13 @ 26%    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2012  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.93   Blatche,Andray Brk  .534   21.2  11.7   2.0   1.66  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
.89   Bledsoe,Eric   LAC  .551   20.4   5.3   5.1   1.56      .446    8.8   4.7   4.1    .52
.77   Williams,Mo    Uta  .540   17.7   2.5   8.2   1.35  LAC .526   16.9   2.5   3.5    .76
.76   Mayo,O.J.      Dal  .613   24.2   4.3   3.5   1.36  Mem .507   17.0   4.3   3.3    .90
.75 Varejao,Anderson Cle  .519   15.0  16.3   3.1   1.97      .533   12.9  14.1   1.9   1.54

(At this point, Stephenson has dropped to #11, at +.68 eWins)

eW+    Dec24 @ 33%    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.02  Blatche,Andray Brk  .534   20.5  10.7   1.9   1.56  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
.95   Morris,Marcus  Hou  .561   13.4   6.6   1.3    .68      .345    7.9   3.9    .7   -.16
.93   Randolph,Zach  Mem  .531   19.9  14.7   1.5   1.81      .492   16.1  11.4   2.4   1.33
.91 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .564   12.3   4.2   3.8    .78      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14
.90   Lee,David      GSW  .570   21.0  11.5   3.7   1.79      .540   20.1   9.6   2.6   1.40

eW+     Jan14 @ 46%    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.50  Morris,Marcus   Hou  .536   13.3   6.4   1.7    .70      .345    7.9   3.9    .7   -.16
1.46  Blatche,Andray  Brk  .527   20.2  11.1   1.9   1.58  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
1.45 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .547   12.3   4.7   3.5    .85      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14
1.28  Sanders,Larry   Mil  .547   11.9  11.8   1.3   1.46      .458    8.4   7.6   1.5    .76
1.13  Randolph,Zach   Mem  .538   19.9  13.6   1.6   1.77      .492   16.1  11.4   2.4   1.33

eW+     Feb17 @ 64%    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.11   Morris,Marcus  Hou  .531   13.6   7.0   1.6    .72      .345    7.9   3.9    .7   -.16
2.11   Bledsoe,Eric   LAC  .516   17.0   5.4   5.6   1.34      .446    8.8   4.7   4.1    .52
2.06   Durant,Kevin   Okl  .641   30.5   7.4   4.6   2.50      .598   29.7   8.0   3.5   2.04
2.05   Blatche,Andray Brk  .524   19.8  10.7   2.0   1.65  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
1.88 Westbrook,Russel Okl  .512   24.6   5.5   9.8   2.19      .529   26.2   5.0   6.2   1.73
1.84 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .532   12.1   4.9   3.7    .74      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14

eW+     Mar11 @ 77%    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.74   Durant,Kevin   Okl  .628   30.2   7.9   5.1   2.56      .598   29.7   8.0   3.5   2.04
2.62 Westbrook,Russel Okl  .523   25.8   5.6   9.5   2.27      .529   26.2   5.0   6.2   1.73
2.45   Blatche,Andray Brk  .529   19.9  10.4   2.0   1.66  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
2.33 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .530   12.4   5.0   3.7    .77      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14
2.31   Harden,James   Hou  .590   25.9   4.8   5.7   1.89  Okl .642   21.1   4.7   4.1   1.44

eW+     Apr02 @ 90%    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2012 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.94 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .519   12.4   5.1   4.0    .81      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14
2.71 Westbrook,Russel Okl  .520   26.1   5.7   9.3   2.22      .529   26.2   5.0   6.2   1.73
2.70   Blatche,Andray Brk  .541   20.6  10.3   2.1   1.63  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
2.57   Sanders,Larry  Mil  .522   13.0  12.4   1.4   1.45      .458    8.4   7.6   1.5    .76
2.53   Harden,James   Hou  .591   26.5   4.8   5.7   1.89  Okl .642   21.1   4.7   4.1   1.44

Durant's recent "slump" has dropped him from 2.56 eWins/484 min. to 2.45, as his play has been below last year's level.
Anything that should disqualify Stephenson from some people's consideration? He's just 22. He hardly played at all for 2 years, and not a bit impressively.
Win Shares has him improving from minus-.031 to .119 -- more than twice the improvement that eWins assesses.

Posted: **Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:28 pm**

Looking around the internet for others' Most Improved suggestions, more recent than January, I found these:

Opposing Views, Mar.21
Paul George, Ind (#23 in my list)
JJ Hickson, Por (#41 now, much higher earlier in the season)
Larry Sanders, Mil (#4)
Earl Clark, LAL (#35)
Omer Asik, Hou (#30)

They also have 10 "most surprising" players: Sanders, Jeff Green, Lillard, Isaiah Thomas, Hickson, Jimmy Butler, Valanciunas, Pekovic, Vucevic, and Tobias Harris.

Pick and Pop Diaries
1 - James Harden (5th, according to me)
2 - Omer Asik (30)
3 - Jrue Holiday (36)
4 - Nikola Vucevic (16)
5 - Larry Sanders (4)

"Other candidates include Greivis Vasquez, Kemba Walker, Chandler Parsons, and OJ Mayo. Of that group, Greivis has a realistic shot to win. As well as Eric Bledsoe and Robin Lopez have played I don't think they belong on the list."

Vasquez, Bledsoe, and Brook Lopez are in my top 10. Kemba in the next 10, and RLopez at 21.
Parsons is not quite top 50, and Mayo is long gone from the top 100.

Posted: **Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:36 am**

Lin's decline caught by eye.

Posted: **Fri Apr 19, 2013 3:36 pm**

Ranked by difference between this year's and last year's eW/484 minutes * (this year's) minutes /484

Code: Select all

eWin+   per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2012: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
3.10 Stephenson,Lance Ind  .523   12.4   5.0   3.9    .80      .397    7.0   3.7   3.6    .14
2.95   Blatche,Andray Brk  .538   20.4  10.1   2.1   1.59  Was .410   11.4   8.6   1.4    .68
2.89 Westbrook,Russel Okl  .522   25.9   5.7   9.1   2.21      .529   26.2   5.0   6.2   1.73
2.71   Sanders,Larry  Mil  .517   13.0  12.2   1.5   1.44      .458    8.4   7.6   1.5    .76
2.64   Durant,Kevin   Okl  .631   30.2   7.8   4.9   2.45      .598   29.7   8.0   3.5   2.04

2.51   Evans,Reggie   Brk  .488    6.9  17.5    .8   1.30  LAC .484    4.2  11.8    .6    .68
2.37   Vucevic,Nikola Orl  .529   14.4  13.4   1.7   1.41  Phl .459   12.3  10.1   1.2    .97
2.31   Lopez,Brook    Brk  .557   25.4   9.0   1.3   1.84      .516   26.0   5.1   1.6   1.34
2.30   Harden,James   Hou  .584   25.6   4.8   5.7   1.82  Okl .642   21.1   4.7   4.1   1.44
2.28   Smith,J.R.     NYK  .515   20.5   6.1   3.2   1.38      .504   15.5   5.0   3.3    .96

eWin+   per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2012: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
2.08 Thompson,Tristan Cle  .507   13.4  11.5   1.4   1.15      .460   11.4   9.9    .6    .76
2.08   Bledsoe,Eric   LAC  .506   15.4   5.5   5.4   1.17      .446    8.8   4.7   4.1    .52
1.94  Webster,Martell Was  .591   15.8   4.9   2.2    .87  Min .526    9.9   5.3   1.3    .44
1.89   Walton,Luke    Cle  .450    6.6   6.1   5.8    .58      .422    4.1   3.8   2.7   -.49
1.74   Butler,Jimmy   Chi  .561   13.2   5.7   1.8    .85      .509   10.0   4.7   1.2    .45

1.73   Walker,Kemba   Cha  .509   18.3   3.7   5.1   1.16      .457   14.8   4.7   4.4    .86
1.67  Vasquez,Greivis NOH  .498   15.2   5.0   8.5   1.19      .507   13.1   3.9   6.5    .89
1.65   West,David     Ind  .536   21.4   8.6   3.6   1.72      .524   17.4   8.6   3.1   1.39
1.61   Bynum,Will     Det  .525   18.7   2.9   6.0    .98      .451   12.4   3.7   3.6    .34
1.60   Lopez,Robin    NOH  .565   16.6   8.5   1.0   1.12  Phx .513   11.9   7.4    .7    .75

eWin+   per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2012: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.57  Aminu,Al-Farouq NOH  .512   10.0  11.2   1.6    .95      .471    9.5   7.7   1.3    .58
1.53   Randolph,Zach  Mem  .498   18.5  13.0   1.6   1.61      .492   16.1  11.4   2.4   1.33
1.46   Jackson,Reggie Okl  .525   13.5   5.9   5.0   1.01      .403    8.1   3.3   4.6    .30
1.45   Lee,David      GSW  .553   19.0  11.2   3.5   1.64      .540   20.1   9.6   2.6   1.40
1.45  Anthony,Carmelo NYK  .550   30.6   7.2   2.7   2.03      .515   26.2   7.2   4.3   1.75

1.43 Williams,Derrick Min  .506   17.7   8.4    .9   1.06      .490   13.4   7.5    .9    .70
1.36   Hill,George    Ind  .551   17.3   4.1   5.4   1.29      .548   14.1   4.1   4.4   1.04
1.33   Bryant,Kobe    LAL  .559   26.6   5.3   5.6   1.83      .517   28.5   5.4   4.0   1.61
1.32   Robinson,Nate  Chi  .534   20.4   3.3   5.8   1.34  GSW .527   16.2   2.9   5.8   1.03
1.31   Carter,Vince   Dal  .563   18.9   5.5   3.1   1.25      .513   15.2   4.9   3.3    .95

Posted: **Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:10 pm**

Here's that same list alongside Win Shares per 484 minutes (to be on the same scale).
WS+ = (2013ws484 - 2012ws484) * minutes /484

Code: Select all

.Improved                         eWins/484              Win Shares/484
.2012 to 2013     tm   G   Min   2012   2013   eW+       2012   2013   WS+
Stephenson,Lance Ind   78   29    .14    .80   3.10      -.31   1.16   6.93
Blatche,Andray   Brk   82   19    .68   1.59   2.95      -.11   1.54   5.32
Westbrook,Russel Okl   82   35   1.73   2.21   2.89      1.64   1.97   1.91
Sanders,Larry    Mil   71   27    .76   1.44   2.71       .73   1.50   3.11
Durant,Kevin     Okl   81   39   2.04   2.45   2.64      2.32   2.93   3.97

Evans,Reggie     Brk   80   25    .68   1.30   2.51       .80   1.06   1.07
Vucevic,Nikola   Orl   77   33    .97   1.41   2.37      1.10   1.07   -.16
Lopez,Brook      Brk   74   30   1.34   1.84   2.31       .92   1.93   4.70
Harden,James     Hou   78   38   1.44   1.82   2.30      2.32   2.08  -1.49
Smith,J.R.       NYK   80   33    .96   1.38   2.28      1.23   1.21   -.11

.Improved                         eWins/484              Win Shares/484
.2012 to 2013     tm   G   Min   2012   2013   eW+       2012   2013   WS+
Thompson,Tristan Cle   82   31    .76   1.15   2.08       .38    .99   3.21
Bledsoe,Eric     LAC   76   20    .52   1.17   2.08       .22   1.16   3.01
Webster,Martell  Was   76   29    .44    .87   1.94       .65   1.39   3.39
Walton,Luke      Cle   50   17   -.49    .58   1.89      -.77    .45   2.16
Butler,Jimmy     Chi   82   26    .45    .85   1.74      1.45   1.59    .62

Walker,Kemba     Cha   82   35    .86   1.16   1.73       .09    .81   4.23
Vasquez,Greivis  NOH   78   34    .89   1.19   1.67       .65    .68    .17
West,David       Ind   73   33   1.39   1.72   1.65      1.48   1.80   1.63
Bynum,Will       Det   65   19    .34    .98   1.61      -.22    .68   2.26
Lopez,Robin      NOH   82   26    .75   1.12   1.60      1.16   1.27    .49

.Improved                         eWins/484              Win Shares/484
.2012 to 2013     tm   G   Min   2012   2013   eW+       2012   2013   WS+
Aminu,Al-Farouq  NOH   76   27    .58    .95   1.57       .44    .74   1.25
Randolph,Zach    Mem   76   34   1.33   1.61   1.53      1.36   1.47    .60
Jackson,Reggie   Okl   70   14    .30   1.01   1.46       .11   1.22   2.27
Lee,David        GSW   79   37   1.40   1.64   1.45      1.14   1.51   2.24
Anthony,Carmelo  NYK   67   37   1.75   2.03   1.45      1.61   1.86   1.24

Williams,Derrick Min   78   25    .70   1.06   1.43       .59    .77    .68
Hill,George      Ind   76   35   1.04   1.29   1.36      1.53   1.78   1.37
Bryant,Kobe      LAL   78   39   1.61   1.83   1.33      1.33   1.75   2.64
Robinson,Nate    Chi   82   25   1.03   1.34   1.32      1.12   1.37   1.09
Carter,Vince     Dal   81   26    .95   1.25   1.31       .91   1.38   2.04

. averages            76.4 29.2  1.31   1.80   1.94      1.26   1.80   2.06

Posted: **Thu Apr 25, 2013 2:58 pm**

Paul George wins MIP. I had him as the 5th most improved on the Pacers, after #1 Stephenson, West, Hill, and T Hansbrough. Per minute, he'd also be behind Pendergraph.
Here's my take on his consecutive seasons:

Code: Select all

.yr     mpg    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk    3s   e484
2013   37.6   .524   19.3   7.6   4.4   2.8   1.7   2.8   .5   170   1.51
2012   29.6   .547   16.5   7.2   3.3   3.6   2.0   2.2   .7    90   1.37

These are standardized per36 rates. His modest improvement of .14 eWins per 484 minutes totals .84 eWins more than he'd have produced last year, in 2970 minutes. Just 49 players added more.

His PER, 16.5 to 16.8, and his WS/48, .148 to .145, were virtually unchanged.
With Granger out all year, he got more minutes and took a lot more shots. His 3fg% dropped from .385 to .362, and his 2fg% from .472 to .457
His other rates are just about a wash. Go figure.

Posted: **Thu Apr 25, 2013 3:37 pm**

Mike G wrote:Paul George wins MIP. [...]
His other rates are just about a wash. Go figure.

Can someone explain what did happen with this vote?
He got credit for Pacers defense/record without Granger? First all star selection impressed everybody?
I can't find a single reason in which he came up on top as a most improved.
I mean, even among such players Harden had a better case.

Posted: **Thu Apr 25, 2013 5:12 pm**

MIP seems to be heavily influenced simply by per game point increase and moving close to 20 pt per game and "star" status. 83% of the time the winner has averaged about the apparently desired / "critical" for this award 16+ pts per game. http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mip.html The few that didn't generally didn't miss on pts / gm by much and / or had a larger than usual season to season point increase.

I mostly ignore all the official voting. Nearly half of the winners were less than .120 on winshares per 48 minutes. I haven't checked the RAPM performance but I doubt it is particularly strong for these guys vs the competition and it might be generally poor. It is for a lot of scorers and maybe particularly for scorers that are pressing hard to do that more than they have in the past.

Posted: **Thu Apr 25, 2013 9:41 pm**

First-place votes: George 52, Vasquez 13, Sanders 10, Vucevic 10, Holiday 10, Asik 9, Harden 8; another 8 guys got 1 vote.

Sanders, Vucevic, and Harden made my top 10. Vasquez top 20.
WS/48 has Vucevic and Vasquez stalling, and Harden dropping significantly.

My man Lance Stephenson got 1 nth-place vote.

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