APBR-DraftExpress 2016 NBA Draft Project

[kjb]

Didn't have time to get to every player, and with work travel and an article deadline looming...this is as far as I'm going to get before the draft.

1. Ben Simmons
2. Brice Johnson
3. Brandon Ingram
4. Denzel Valentine
5. Jakob Poeltl
6. Chinanu Onuaku
7. Matt Costello
8. Jamal Murray
9. Deyonta Davis
10. Tyler Ulis
11. Derrick Jones, Jr.
12. AJ Hammons
13. Daniel Ochefu
14. Buddy Hield
15. Thomas Walkup
16. Domantas Sabonis
17. Pascal Siakim
18. Caris LeVert
19. Wade Baldwin
20. Jameel Warney
21. Diamond Stone
22. Patrick McCaw
23. Cheick Diallo
24. Egidijus Mockevicius
25. Malik Beasley
26. Kay Felder

I've evaluated some other guys, but these are the ones I'd consider as having draftable grades. I don't watch college hoops very much at all, so this is production numbers and combine measures. All publicly available information.

Probably my biggest disagreements with the DX mock are Marquese Chriss and Jaylen Brown. They're both considered lottery picks: I have Chriss with a borderline draftable grade; I have a "don't draft" on Brown.

This list doesn't include international players at all, which is a huge weakness. I need to start working with those numbers.

[Crow]

The article

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/201 ... case-5600/

[NeilMJ]

Thanks for posting Crow, and thank you Nick and Jesse for contributing!

[Crow]

Players where the average of two analytical models are most more favorable about them than the DX scouting models:

B Johnson, D Murray, Felder, Whitehead, Brogdon, Wiltjer, Niang, Paige, S Long.


Players where the average of two analytical models are most less favorable than that of the DX scouting models:

Chriss, Hield, D Jones, Bembry, McCaw, Baldwin, Damion Lee, Selden, Ibeh, Zimmerman, Bolomboy.

[Dr Positivity]

Absolutely love the Rockets draft night, grabbing two players rated in my top 10 in Onuaku and Zhou who along with Capela gives their frontcourt unreal defensive upside. Payton II has some weaknesses but for being the best defensive guard in college last year would have be an acceptable late 1st pick

[Dr Positivity]

Ranking drafts:

Using this basketball-reference chart http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2740 each pick is assigned an "expected value" in Win Shares produced.

Players are given a "predicted" value based on where they ranked in my model, with their net value the difference between this and expected value. For example say a team has the 15th pick and takes the 5th ranked player in my model. Since the 15th pick in the basketball reference chart has 26 expected Win Shares and the 5th pick has 46.6, the team is given a +20.6 for the pick.

Any rank 60 or higher is assigned a value of 0 (I say 60 instead of 61, because pick 60 is listed as -0.1 on the chart). UDFAs are not accounted for.

Code: Select all

1. HOU +71.7
2. BKN +33.5
3. MIN +17.3
4. LAC +13.4
5. MEM +11.1
6. CLE +7.6
7. DAL +5.7
8. GSW +4.5
9. CHA N/A
9. MIA N/A
9. NYK N/A
9. WAS N/A
13. IND -3.4
14. UTA -4.2
15. POR -4.5
16. CHI -4.6
17. ORL -7.1
18. SAS -8.7
19. LAL -16.5
20. OKC -17.4
21. ATL -19.5
22. PHI -20.4
23. DET -21.0
24. TOR -21.9
25. MIL -23.3
26. SAC -30.2
27. NOP -33.9
28. BOS -41.8
29. DEN -44.4
30. PHX -53.3

Signed UDFAs who rated top 60 in my model includes Baker (14) to NYK, Ochefu (18) to WAS, Carter (23) to GSW, Payton II (35) to HOU. To above chart they would add +27.3 to NYK, +22.6 to WAS, +18.0 to GSW, +10.1 to HOU

[Dr Positivity]

Top 60, didn't take the purist approach of just punch in the numbers and live with whatever comes out, but on the whole overwhelmingly data/retrodiction driven:

Code: Select all

1. PF Ben Simmons
2. PG Kris Dunn
3. SG Isaiah Whitehead
4. PG/SG Wade Baldwin
5. C Chinanu Onuaku
6. C Ante Zizic
7. PF/C Zhou Qi
8. PF Brice Johnson
9. SF Taurean Prince
10. PF Dragan Bender
11. C Georgios Papagiannis
12. C Ivica Zubac
13. SF Brandon Ingram
14. SG Ron Baker
15. SG Patrick McCaw
16. SF/PF Juan Hernangomez
17. PG/SG Alex Caruso
18. C Daniel Ochefu
19. C Jakob Poeltl
20. SG Thomas Walkup
21. PF/C Jameel Warney
22. SG Denzel Valentine
23. PF/C Robert Carter
24. PF/C Gracin Bakumanya
25. PF/C Thon Maker
26. PF Domantas Sabonis
27. PG/SG Jamal Murray
28. SG Buddy Hield
29. SG Terry Tarpey
30. SF Jaylen Brown
31. PF Marquese Chriss
32. SF Derrick Jones, Jr.
33. SG Furkan Korkmaz
34. C A.J. Hammons
35. PG/SG Gary Payton II
36. PG Kahlil Felder
37. PF Guerschon Yabusele
38. PG Nikola Ivanovic
39. SF Paul Zipser
40. C Diamond Stone
41. PF Pascal Siakam
42. C Deyonta Davis
43. C Cheick Diallo
44. SF/PF Jordan Fouse
45. PF/C Henry Ellenson
46. PG/SG DeJounte Murray
47. SG Caris LeVert
48. PF Stefan Jankovic
49. PF Petr Cornelie
50. SG Malcolm Brogdon
51. SF Damion Lee
52. SF Jarrod Uthoff
53. SG Malik Beasley
54. SG A.J. English
55. SF Troy Williams
56. SF Timothe Luwawu
57. PG Demetrius Jackson
58. SF DeAndre Bembry'
59. PG Fred VanVleet
60. PG Tyler Ulis

Going by BPM, very early evaluating of my model

- Siakam, Brogdon and Finney-Smith are 3 of the highest 4 from this class in BPM for qualified players, along with Juan Hernangomez. Certainly I wish they'd been higher on my board

- While Dunn's scoring game has been ghastly, with a good steal, rebound rate and ast/tov for a guard he's still the 5th highest BPM for this class. There have been some players in the past who did the non-scoring things first and then caught up, just ask Draymond or Lowry, although hopefully he picks it up some time this year

- McCaw has 6th highest BPM among qualifieds and knowing GSW's luck that pick seems on track to work out.

- Whitehead's offensive numbers also one of the weakest in the league for a guard and has lowest BPM among qualified, not a good sign for my 3rd highest rated player, though his efficiency has trended up from early December and it seems the Nets are encouraged by some eye test things which has led to more minutes this season than Dunn, Chriss, Brown, etc.

- I like Onuaku's progress in the D League after a disappointing summer as he is one of the best rebounders there and very efficient, he could end up playing for the Rockets this year with Nene sure to miss some games

- My model faded Brandon Ingram's perimeter shooting because of his low FT% and so far that has been on point, his overall stats are very poor with one of the lowest BPMs in the class, although Lakers fans seem to like his defense and passing potential. Bender has been a little better as of late and his defense and shooting potential remains appealing although his overall stats are still poor. Other lottery picks like Murray, Hield, Chriss, Brown have been bad and I don't regret ranking them low.



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