Compared to past season averages, this season to date is Lebron James' worst since rookie season on efg%, ts%, pts / gm, BPM and probably more. Worst ever by far from 3. Worst ever raw team +/- on court and on / off.
Hey Russ, what do you recommend for LeBron to fix his game? James is still better than Westbrook and most other teammates on BPM, but at a pretty modest number.
'22-23 Commentary
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Mavs with by far most "Moreyball" shot distribution. 1st in frequency of shots at rim, first at ft rate, 3rd at 3pta rate.
Last season was strong on 3pta rate but only near average on the other two.
Who gets lead credits for these big changes?
For direct player shares:
Doncic down modestly on 3pta rate- and way down on 3pt fg%. Career highs on ft rate and at the rim rate. Did the 3pt troubles generate the other changes?
Christian Wood contributed significantly as did Josh Green. Brunson subtraction helped these numbers too. Probably some others.
Indirect credit shares? A few people know. I don't "know". Who was least a leader or even supporter for this direction, if any stand apart?
Last season was strong on 3pta rate but only near average on the other two.
Who gets lead credits for these big changes?
For direct player shares:
Doncic down modestly on 3pta rate- and way down on 3pt fg%. Career highs on ft rate and at the rim rate. Did the 3pt troubles generate the other changes?
Christian Wood contributed significantly as did Josh Green. Brunson subtraction helped these numbers too. Probably some others.
Indirect credit shares? A few people know. I don't "know". Who was least a leader or even supporter for this direction, if any stand apart?
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Raptors lineup management:
4 of 6 most used negative, including the most used.
Only 2 lineups used the equivalent of 3 plus minutes per game.
But 46% of lineups positive. I guess Nurse is somewhat above average at the dink lineup game. Had to be to recover from poor performance of most used.
4 of 5 worst player pairs over 100 minutes involve G Trent.
4 of 6 most used negative, including the most used.
Only 2 lineups used the equivalent of 3 plus minutes per game.
But 46% of lineups positive. I guess Nurse is somewhat above average at the dink lineup game. Had to be to recover from poor performance of most used.
4 of 5 worst player pairs over 100 minutes involve G Trent.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Lakers W 2 - L 9.
But... according to BRef projections, would only need to go 35 - 36 to get 8th seed. With there being a projected huge drop off from 7th to 8th seed. Competitive for 8th to 10th.
So, if accurate, they don't have to play well to make playoff rank, just near average. But that is almost 275% of current win rate. The later improvement begins, the greater change required.
But... according to BRef projections, would only need to go 35 - 36 to get 8th seed. With there being a projected huge drop off from 7th to 8th seed. Competitive for 8th to 10th.
So, if accurate, they don't have to play well to make playoff rank, just near average. But that is almost 275% of current win rate. The later improvement begins, the greater change required.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards, 8th in East by W-L, 12th by SRS and not close to play in level projection by that. Latest Beal contract decision stinking as expected, like earlier decisions not to trade. 10th on team for team +/- on court and on / off. Nothing to show from J Davis pick yet. Tons of really bad Hachimura and Barton pairs played heavily. Coaching, analytics... bad lineup data is on everyone involved.
Pistons 13th by W-L, 15th by SRS. Massive mistakes on player assessment, lineup management, shot distribution, defensive design...
Pistons 13th by W-L, 15th by SRS. Massive mistakes on player assessment, lineup management, shot distribution, defensive design...
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Heat, 7 most used lineups all positive and yet negative SRS overall. Must be losing badly on the dink lineup game.
Could try to dink better... and / or dink less or way less.
Lowry negative overall with 4 of the 5 others who've started. A lot of bad Lowry lineups or too many terrible ones.
Could try to dink better... and / or dink less or way less.
Lowry negative overall with 4 of the 5 others who've started. A lot of bad Lowry lineups or too many terrible ones.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Rockets, 15 most used pairs all negative, half horrible including all 3 between Porter, Green and Smith. Poor player play, poor coaching, poor player selection & fit? Most or probably all of the above.
The bigger minute positive pairs tend to involve Senguin, Eason, Garuba and Martin. More time for those pairs? Should be. Check shows 2 pairs with Garuba getting notably more time in last 5 games, 2 other pairs with Martin not much change and 2 pairs with Senguin not used much and bad respectively. So some change but not enough.
All the quads over 25 minutes that have 2 or more of these 4 are positive except one. None of the qualifying quads with 1 or less were positive. Pretty easy to see what to do if trying to win this season. Rockets analytic and coaching staff either know these facts or they don't but neither is a good look from a time allocation perspective.
Two of the 3 wings with one "center", both great in moderate minutes. All 4? Not a second of test. Too busy with 117 other quads, most revolving around design / salary favored assets.
The bigger minute positive pairs tend to involve Senguin, Eason, Garuba and Martin. More time for those pairs? Should be. Check shows 2 pairs with Garuba getting notably more time in last 5 games, 2 other pairs with Martin not much change and 2 pairs with Senguin not used much and bad respectively. So some change but not enough.
All the quads over 25 minutes that have 2 or more of these 4 are positive except one. None of the qualifying quads with 1 or less were positive. Pretty easy to see what to do if trying to win this season. Rockets analytic and coaching staff either know these facts or they don't but neither is a good look from a time allocation perspective.
Two of the 3 wings with one "center", both great in moderate minutes. All 4? Not a second of test. Too busy with 117 other quads, most revolving around design / salary favored assets.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Impact of Timberwolves "star" GM and big, early trade?
Too soon to say but their ranking has gone from 7th in West last season to 13th at the moment.
Too soon to say but their ranking has gone from 7th in West last season to 13th at the moment.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Outside of strong offensive rebounding, the Griz are not that special elsewhere at factor level.
+2 on actual - expected wins affects the look quite a bit right now.
Jackson's return will be a major event to monitor.
Extent of development time to the young guys and which ones is also something I am watching and related to the first point.
+2 on actual - expected wins affects the look quite a bit right now.
Jackson's return will be a major event to monitor.
Extent of development time to the young guys and which ones is also something I am watching and related to the first point.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Jazz, 5 strong factors, 3 weak. Strong on both own and opponent efg%, the most important factor; but things would not be as rosy if they had one fewer strength, one more flaw.
Not every 5-3 factor split will be good enough to be good overall. 4-4 splits will generally face an even tougher time, especially in certain game matchups / unfolds.
Not every 5-3 factor split will be good enough to be good overall. 4-4 splits will generally face an even tougher time, especially in certain game matchups / unfolds.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Currently 8 guys average 30 plus points per game. For full season over last 5 years, the average is 1.6 and the most is 3.
What's the most over 30pts per game in a season? Appears to be 4 in 1971-72.
Will record fall? (Will anyone else mention it and / or mention my mention?)
It appears Wilt Chamberlain was tied for being the first to go over 30 in 1959-60.
85 ever including the current ones.
Doncic's current season sits 16th best ever right now.
SGA, 39th best ever. .02 pts / gm behind Kobe's 2nd best. .04 pts / gm behind Westbrook's best.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eason.html
Ahead of best ever by LeBron and Jerry West. Half point behind KD's best.
(I thought I knew at least the name of every elite player in NBA history but I don't recall Charlie Scott and I definitely did not know Jack Twyman. They figure into the ties mentioned above for 1959-60 and 1971-72.)
What's the most over 30pts per game in a season? Appears to be 4 in 1971-72.
Will record fall? (Will anyone else mention it and / or mention my mention?)
It appears Wilt Chamberlain was tied for being the first to go over 30 in 1959-60.
85 ever including the current ones.
Doncic's current season sits 16th best ever right now.
SGA, 39th best ever. .02 pts / gm behind Kobe's 2nd best. .04 pts / gm behind Westbrook's best.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eason.html
Ahead of best ever by LeBron and Jerry West. Half point behind KD's best.
(I thought I knew at least the name of every elite player in NBA history but I don't recall Charlie Scott and I definitely did not know Jack Twyman. They figure into the ties mentioned above for 1959-60 and 1971-72.)
Re: '22-23 Commentary
In 1972, Charlie Scott was leading the ABA at 34.6 ppg thru 73 games. Then he abruptly jumped to the NBA Suns, where he got 18.8 over the last 6 games.
Next 3 seasons in Phx, he averaged 25, 25, and 24, then 2 years at 18 in Bos, then 12, 9, and done at age 31.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... tch01.html
Next 3 seasons in Phx, he averaged 25, 25, and 24, then 2 years at 18 in Bos, then 12, 9, and done at age 31.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... tch01.html
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Scottie Barnes at 0.0 on BPM. "Untouchable".
Raptors very low on own efg% and opponent allowed efg%. Strength in creating possessions. Except just average at defensive rebounding, the most common way to start a new possession. Looks like a good team. Not seeing greatness but just have to play a little better than the opponents.
Raptors very low on own efg% and opponent allowed efg%. Strength in creating possessions. Except just average at defensive rebounding, the most common way to start a new possession. Looks like a good team. Not seeing greatness but just have to play a little better than the opponents.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Best team in west? SRS has Suns well ahead.
#2? SRS shows Pelicans. Will that last? Couple teams could end up 2 or 3.
#2? SRS shows Pelicans. Will that last? Couple teams could end up 2 or 3.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Comments on The Athletic's
"Each NBA team’s biggest concern right now..."
Bulls
GM was in a hurry early but not lately. Coach has not been. Both need to go beyond what they have done so far. Both probably won't do enough to achieve ambitions. Bulls may have tough time staying even mediocre.
They don't have enough 3pt shooters. They don't defend the shot well enough while fouling too much.
They bought DeRozan and got DeRozan. The good and bad. 14 seasons, just 2 with a positive raw on / off. Went from career best last season to extreme by far worst this season (-15 pts / 100p). I'd trade him. By deadline if Ball isn't back and things aren't working better or in off-season if playoffs are not a success.
I'd trade LaVine too. Just 2 of 9 seasons with a positive on / off and not this one. Time's up imo, if serious about a contender.
Never was a Pat Williams fan and am still not. Certainly not excited to pay him big soon or give him a bigger role.
I'd totally re-work. And get a new Coach.
Detroit Pistons
"Can the Pistons develop amid injuries?"
Shorten it to... can the Pistons develop. Wrong GM, wrong Coach, wrong draft picks, wrong support pieces. So many things wrong, total disaster. Start completely over.
Heat
Not a single word about the disappointment of Kyle Lowry here or in Hollinger's recent piece.
Maybe more later.
"Each NBA team’s biggest concern right now..."
Bulls
GM was in a hurry early but not lately. Coach has not been. Both need to go beyond what they have done so far. Both probably won't do enough to achieve ambitions. Bulls may have tough time staying even mediocre.
They don't have enough 3pt shooters. They don't defend the shot well enough while fouling too much.
They bought DeRozan and got DeRozan. The good and bad. 14 seasons, just 2 with a positive raw on / off. Went from career best last season to extreme by far worst this season (-15 pts / 100p). I'd trade him. By deadline if Ball isn't back and things aren't working better or in off-season if playoffs are not a success.
I'd trade LaVine too. Just 2 of 9 seasons with a positive on / off and not this one. Time's up imo, if serious about a contender.
Never was a Pat Williams fan and am still not. Certainly not excited to pay him big soon or give him a bigger role.
I'd totally re-work. And get a new Coach.
Detroit Pistons
"Can the Pistons develop amid injuries?"
Shorten it to... can the Pistons develop. Wrong GM, wrong Coach, wrong draft picks, wrong support pieces. So many things wrong, total disaster. Start completely over.
Heat
Not a single word about the disappointment of Kyle Lowry here or in Hollinger's recent piece.
Maybe more later.