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Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:49 pm
by Crow
SGA is a superstar. JDub and Holmgren were modest stars in last regular season... and playoffs but mainly on defense in playoffs. This season JDub is still a modest star and entirely on defense by BPM splits. Holmgren is currently playing like a 2 way superstar. What will it look like in next playoffs?
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2024 4:33 pm
by Crow
Thunder rotation has 2 above league average on FT rate, 8 below. On at the rim shot frequency it is 6 above, 4 below but 3 of the 6 are well below at at the rim fg%, including Caruso currently at 27% but also Wallace at 48% and Mitchell at 50%.
On mid-range fg% SGA and Joe are generally good, while a few others currently have good marks at 1-2 distances.
JDub and Mitchell high on mid-frequency: league average is about 33%, Mitchell 42%, Williams 46%. Williams above average fg% from 16-23 feet but not the other distances, Mitchell the reverse.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2024 12:26 pm
by Crow
Mitchell Joe Williams Wiggins Holmgren is on fire... in 25 minute test.
20 of 20 most used pairs are positive, all but 1 pushing +10 to over +30. 20 of 20 trios are positive, though a few only modestly. 17 of 20 most used quads are positive but the number not strong rises to 7. 15 of 20 5 mans are positive and 7 are not strong. Some improvements are probably possible but this is a very good set.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2024 6:21 pm
by Crow
At factor level, it is now 3 super-elite, 1 slightly below average, 4 in bottom 10.
Opp FT/FGA started out amazing low but now has slightly back in bottom 10. Sluggtly worse in absolute terms than last season, slightly better by rank.
Offensive efficiency finally cracks above average but ts% remains slightly below.
Long way to April but offense probably has to improve further to go deep. Balanced elite is the best posture.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 5:41 pm
by Crow
At least 7 possible first round opponents.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:14 am
by Crow
122 lineups used in 12 games. Just one in half the games. Only 7 in more than a quarter of the games, do 94% for 3 or less. 58% used in 1 game.
Exactly half positive is high.
Two of the least positive pairs are Dort - Joe and Wallace - Caruso. But there are a handful of other non strong pairs.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:03 am
by Crow
Thunder probably will have more difficult time in playoffs against strong defenses and good rebounding.
Rockets, Mavs, Warriors, Griz and Clippers have good defenses. Rockets, Warriors and Griz also have good offensive rebounding. Of these, only Rockets have good defensive rebounding.
Hope for other playoff opponents. Perhaps especially not Rockets in first round. Geiz or Clips more likely. Prefer Suns or Timberwolves? Hard to say that but maybe.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 6:54 pm
by Crow
At factor level, it is still 3 super-elite, 1 slightly below average, 4 in bottom 20% (more than just bottom third). Pretty close to being 3-0-5.
This raises questions about the dominance of some things and lack of achievement and perhaps focus on many others, by players, Coach and Presti.
How often do teams win a title split between two tails?
Will have to look farther back. But in last 6 seasons, the champ on average have 3.7 factors in top third, 2.4 in middle and 1.9 in bottom third. 1 had 3 in bottom third but none 4 or 5.
In 7 seasons before that it was
3.3 factors in top third, 2.1 in middle and 2.5 in bottom third. 1 had 4 in bottom third, making it 1 in 13 seasons or about 8% of recent champs did it with that many weaknesses.
Compared to prior 7 seasons, the most recent 6 seasons has seen champs increase top tier strengths by an average of about 10%, middling factors by 15% and reduced weaknesses by 25%.
The overall trend is away from many weaknesses.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 10:35 pm
by Mike G
At this point in the season, if we reduce the 4*2 Factors to just 4 -- being the ratios of team/opponent -- it looks like there are 2 that are important to point-differential and 2 that are not.
Ranked by "points" = TmPts/OppPts
Code: Select all
points tm eFG% TO FT/FGA ORb
1.115 OKC 1.09 1.71 .79 .67
1.110 Cle 1.14 1.20 1.03 .79
1.092 Bos 1.05 1.20 1.36 1.01
1.087 GSW 1.12 1.12 .82 1.10
1.074 Hou 1.01 1.19 .87 1.38
1.069 Mem 1.06 .97 1.09 1.06
1.051 NYK 1.05 .98 .93 1.02
1.046 Orl .99 1.08 1.09 1.24
1.035 Dal 1.05 1.07 .90 .90
1.028 Sac 1.03 1.10 1.10 .88
points tm eFG% TO FT/FGA ORb
1.025 Min 1.06 .95 1.00 .89
1.008 LAL 1.00 1.10 1.31 .84
1.008 Mia .97 1.24 1.15 .94
1.005 Den .99 1.05 1.36 1.04
1.001 LAC .99 .88 1.08 1.22
.991 SAS 1.01 .89 1.18 .94
.989 Det 1.00 .80 .91 1.19
.986 Phx 1.00 .92 1.16 .97
.981 Mil 1.03 .96 .99 .76
.973 Ind 1.02 .99 .84 .73
points tm eFG% TO FT/FGA ORb
.972 Atl .96 1.04 1.06 1.01
.971 Brk .98 .98 .85 .99
.954 Cha .94 .84 .73 1.37
.949 Tor .97 .80 .74 1.16
.944 Chi .99 .76 1.04 .95
.940 Por .90 1.03 .94 1.13
.924 NOP .90 .88 1.19 1.20
.920 Phl .89 1.17 .91 1.04
.905 Uta .92 .71 1.39 1.00
.882 Was .92 .89 .79 .76
points eFG% TO FT/FGA ORb
correlations .88 .67 .03 -.09
TO are really "TO forced" ratio = OppTO/TmTO
Is that OKC TO factor an alltime record? Last year it was 1.24
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2024 12:42 am
by Crow
Interesting.
Correlations of the 8 factors separately would be worth knowing too to get a sense of how using the ratios change correlations.
Not that I am calling for or expecting it but correlations at game level might be different than season to date and season to date to full season.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:32 pm
by Crow
Thunder 14th on at the rim frequency and 15th on atr fg%. Thought this was a philosophical priority. Not a practical achievement. Most playerd can't / don't want to. SGA trending down.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2024 7:00 am
by Crow
Thunder slipping on pace. Now 8th highest and not much more than 1 possession higher than average.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Mon Nov 25, 2024 4:45 am
by Crow
At factor level, the Thunder took a massive step between the end of the Donovan era and the start of the Daigneault era. It took 4 years to slowly get back to the same mix of tiers.
And by this simple perspective, the Thunder added a bottom tier factor this season beyond last season.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:47 pm
by Crow
188 lineups used in 17 games. Almost all the most used lineups and pair are positive. One lineup over 3 minutes per game, then 6 from 1 to 2.5 per game. Very little definition to the lineup rotation.
Re: Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary
Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2024 2:13 pm
by Mike G
Once Alex Caruso returns, the Thunder's top 8 players will be listed as SG.
SG Williams plays C, SG's Shai and Wiggins play F, SG Joe is now PG
A summary of career minutes% before this season, and now. Middle two columns are 1 thru 5 position averages then and now.
Code: Select all
OKC SG min PG SG SF PF C to24 2425 PG SG SF PF C
Shai 618 56 34 10 0 0 1.54 3.21 0 12 57 29 2
JWill 569 4 36 17 41 1 2.96 4.24 0 0 5 66 29
Dort 533 8 36 44 12 0 2.60 2.29 9 55 34 2 0
Wallace 459 29 36 34 1 0 2.07 1.63 45 50 6 0 0
Wiggins 377 7 44 41 8 0 2.50 3.53 0 4 47 46 4
Joe 363 34 60 6 0 0 1.72 1.01 99 1 0 0 0
Mitchell 294 rookie, no previous ... 2.09 18 56 25 1 0
Caruso 256 52 46 2 0 0 1.50 1.35 67 34 0 0 0
all 8 3469 24 37 21 10 0 2.00 2.59 23 25 24 21 6