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Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 3:10 am
by Crow
Lin is the only guy in the poll who will be a free agent this summer. RFA.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:06 am
by Mike G
With 92% of the season finished, it may well depend on who gets minutes.
You can change your vote in this poll. I just did.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.82 Monroe,Greg Det .556 19.7 12.4 2.5 1.84 .563 12.9 10.9 1.6 1.13
2.74 Mullens,Byron Cha .473 14.4 8.2 1.1 .97 Okl .357 6.8 8.8 .0 -.06
2.67 Gortat,Marcin Phx .578 19.0 11.6 1.0 1.81 .584 14.3 10.9 1.2 1.15
2.61 Lin,Jeremy NYK .540 21.4 4.3 9.0 1.73 GSW .450 6.8 3.5 4.1 .39
2.58 Pekovic,Nikola Min .596 19.2 9.7 .9 1.39 .561 12.6 7.3 .9 .29
2.42 Hayward,Gordon Uta .550 14.8 4.5 3.6 .89 .568 11.1 4.1 2.2 .27
2.30 Cousins,Demarcus Sac .488 20.3 13.3 1.8 1.94 .474 16.7 12.1 3.0 1.31
2.23 Seraphin,Kevin Was .541 12.9 8.6 .9 .95 .474 6.6 7.4 .4 -.09
2.15 Smith,Josh Atl .486 21.2 10.6 4.1 2.22 .531 19.3 10.1 3.5 1.74
2.12 George,Paul Ind .548 16.4 7.1 3.3 1.25 .534 13.1 6.2 1.8 .68
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.06 Lucas,John Chi .480 18.0 3.5 5.0 1.11 .250 4.0 .0 3.1 -.44
1.82 Vasquez,Greivis NOH .518 13.4 3.9 6.2 .79 Mem .488 8.8 2.9 5.4 .22
1.80 Ilyasova,Ersan Mil .566 17.7 11.5 1.4 1.59 .511 14.8 9.3 1.3 1.03
1.71 Jefferson,Al Uta .520 21.7 10.8 2.5 2.17 .522 19.4 11.0 1.9 1.75
1.61 Harrington,Al Den .528 18.1 8.1 1.8 1.19 .521 14.6 6.8 2.1 .73
1.57 Harden,James Okl .632 20.2 4.7 4.2 1.31 .583 16.4 4.2 2.8 .91
1.56 Bradley,Avery Bos .539 13.2 3.3 2.3 .42 .356 7.9 3.2 2.0 -.21
1.51 Pachulia,Zaza Atl .543 11.3 10.8 1.7 .92 .543 9.6 9.2 1.4 .47
1.51 Jack,Jarrett NOH .533 18.4 4.6 5.7 1.27 .494 14.3 3.7 4.5 .79
1.50 Dragic,Goran Hou .557 16.5 3.6 6.8 1.12 .515 13.0 3.8 5.3 .65
#21-30: Maxiell, Hibbert, Jason Smith, Ibaka, Evan Turner, A Bynum, M Gasol, Durant, Teague, Joel Anthony (+1.21)
31-40: Frye, Nate Robinson, Splitter, Gee, Favors, Daniel Green, DeAndre Jordan, Brandan Wright, Mayo, Chalmers (+0.98)
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 7:15 am
by Mike G
Players whose production drops have led to fewer eWins in their minutes.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-2.05 Hayes,Chuck Sac .443 5.1 7.8 2.3 .12 Hou .545 10.5 11.2 3.8 1.16
-2.01 Odom,Lamar Dal .417 11.2 7.0 2.8 .64 LAL .581 18.1 10.1 3.6 1.61
-1.85 Salmons,John Sac .468 9.3 3.9 2.5 .20 Mil .503 16.1 4.1 3.6 .91
-1.70 Martin,Kevin Hou .544 21.0 3.3 3.0 1.16 .586 28.4 3.9 2.9 1.81
-1.68 Miller,Andre Den .509 12.4 4.6 8.4 .94 Por .520 15.7 4.9 8.2 1.42
-1.68 Felton,Raymond Por .488 13.5 3.1 7.5 .85 Den .517 14.7 3.6 8.7 1.28
-1.58 Bryant,Kobe LAL .518 28.8 5.3 3.9 2.08 .538 30.5 6.0 5.5 2.43
-1.56 Butler,Caron LAC .494 15.8 4.8 1.5 .75 Dal .517 20.0 5.5 2.1 1.18
-1.50 West,David Ind .521 16.8 8.4 3.2 1.38 NOH .549 22.6 9.1 2.5 1.79
-1.49 Scola,Luis Hou .522 19.5 8.2 2.7 1.31 .531 20.8 9.9 3.1 1.69
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.42 Stevenson,Desha NJN .405 5.2 4.0 1.5 -.27 Dal .545 13.3 3.6 2.6 .51
-1.39 Harris,Devin Uta .549 15.3 2.3 6.4 .89 .532 18.5 3.1 7.7 1.30
-1.33 Battier,Shane Mia .497 7.7 3.7 2.1 .15 Mem .562 10.0 6.0 3.0 .62
-1.32 Augustin,D.J. Cha .485 13.2 3.0 6.2 .68 .532 17.0 3.5 6.3 1.17
-1.32 Matthews,Wesley Por .539 15.5 3.9 1.8 .77 .572 19.8 3.9 2.2 1.08
-1.29 Nash,Steve Phx .619 15.6 3.5 12.3 1.45 .591 17.3 4.0 12.7 1.79
-1.26 Gasol,Pau LAL .542 18.6 10.5 3.4 1.78 .577 21.5 10.8 3.6 2.04
-1.23 Martin,Kenyon LAC .434 8.2 7.1 .7 .40 Den .520 12.5 9.7 3.7 1.14
-1.17 Thomas,Tyrus Cha .398 9.4 7.4 .9 .54 .525 16.3 9.4 1.0 1.13
-1.12 McRoberts,Josh LAL .500 6.2 8.1 2.1 .24 Ind .597 13.3 9.0 3.5 1.09
#21-30: Amar'e, Nelson, Ray Allen, D Collison, Kidd, Nowitzki, R Evans, Holiday, Nazr, Zach (-0.87)
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 5:04 pm
by YaoPau
I think I'd go Gortat for most improved. It's amazing how many guys who broke out offensively this year struggle on defense... I'm not sure guys like Monroe or Pekovic are particularly good at this point.
I'd go as far to say that Gortat and Nash are probably in my top 20 for MVP this year. I can't even believe they are in the playoffs... their bench is horrible, 3/5ths of their starting lineup is average, and yet their starting lineup is the most successful lineup in the NBA this year (+209 overall, +13.6 per 100 poss in 750 minutes). A 21.4 PER with good defense for Gortat is near-elite stuff. I guess Gortat was pretty good last year too (and so maybe I'd put Paul George in the discussion), but it's a significant jump imo going from 6th man to star player for a playoff team.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Wed Apr 18, 2012 6:49 pm
by Mike G
The Suns aren't in the playoffs yet. They are 8th in the West by likelihood, according to b-r.com, with a 56% chance of getting in.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi
Their chances are 1.1% of winning the West and 0.5% of winning the lottery. No other team has as good a chance at both.
Byron Mullens went from below replacement level to above median, in some measures. It's hard to compare such players' absolute improvement.
In fact this year is anomalous, with quite a few top contenders, all with drastically different stories.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 7:56 pm
by Mike G
MIP winner Ryan Anderson was hot early, last popped into the top 20 on Feb.16, and winds up behind 40-some others. His improvement is estimated (by eWins) to have given Orlando almost 1 more win than they'd have if he hadn't improved. A dozen or so players had twice that much improvement impact.
Poll results at this moment: Pekovic (3), Lin (2); Harden, Gortat, and Mullens (1 each)
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 11:31 pm
by Crow
It is very unlikely to have influenced any voting but Ryan Anderson had the 21st best prior-informed RAPM and the 14th best prior-informed RAPM. Another case were impact estimates from boxscore metrics vary sharply from RAPM. In part because RAPM has shot defense and impact on the offense of teammates beyond assists in it and boxscore metrics don't.
3 of the 5 rated highest on eW+ were estimated in the bottom third of the league on prior-informed RAPM and in 2 of those cases they were quite a bit lower.
Pekovic had by far the best RAPM estimate of the top 5 on eW+. Andre Miller marked as having the 5th biggest decline by eW+, but RAPM estimates still have him as a top 50 positive impact player. (Kobe at about 50th too.)
One can use one metric or another or use both.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 12:10 am
by Mike G
Ryan Anderson had the 21st best prior-informed RAPM and the 14th best prior-informed RAPM.
He was 21st last year and 14th this year?
... 3 of the 5 rated highest on eW+ were estimated in the bottom third of the league on prior-informed RAPM...
Are you referring to improvement from last season? Or just this year's RAPM?
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 12:18 am
by Crow
Mike G wrote:Ryan Anderson had the 21st best prior-informed RAPM and the 14th best prior-informed RAPM.
He was 21st last year and 14th this year?
YES
... 3 of the 5 rated highest on eW+ were estimated in the bottom third of the league on prior-informed RAPM...
Are you referring to improvement from last season? Or just this year's RAPM?
JUST THIS SEASON. RAPM IMPROVEMENT COULD BE FOUND, BUT THERE COULD BE MAJOR IMPACT FROM GOING FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE ERROR.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 2:45 am
by EvanZ
Changes in A4PM and RAPM (calculated by me) from 2011 to 2012:
Delta is A4PM12-A4PM11.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 3:29 am
by Crow
file currently requires permission to view.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 11:43 am
by EvanZ
Crow wrote:file currently requires permission to view.
Does it work now?
Mike, there are possessions in that spreadsheet, if you want to do that calculation (copy the data to a new file). I'd rather leave that spreadsheet alone, since it's in one of my blog posts.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 3:55 pm
by Crow
The file is visible now.
Only 9 of 117 players had their A4PM change by more than 2 points. Less than 40% of players changed by more than 1. That does not seem that volatile to me. The average absolute change was a bit under 0.9. Per 100 possessions. Per game the change will be a good deal less in most cases.
Same is basically true with RAPM change.
Average absolute difference between A4PM and RAPM is 0.44 per 100 possessions. Only 11 varied by more than 1. About 40% varied by less than 0.2. Andre Miller had the biggest discrepancy. Westbrook 4th biggest. In fact PGs had 10 of the 11 biggest discrepancies and 16 of the top 21. Wonder why. A detail worth keeping in mind and perhaps pursuing further.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 4:12 pm
by EvanZ
Here's a graphical depiction:
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 4:24 pm
by Mike G
Does this display that the 3 best players in the league are Beno, Manu, and Bonner?