APBRmetrics

Crow wrote:Philly is 5th best on FT/FGA in the playoffs from some combo of change in their approach, ref impact, opponents, and randomness. I guess they can get to the line.

That is surprising, given their opponents. The Bulls had the 3rd-lowest opponent FT/FGA ratio, and the Celts were just average, during the season.

However, both teams were without starting players, and extended minutes to Asik, Watson, Gibson and Boozer -- relative to Rose and Noah -- surely brought more fouls from the Bulls.
Hollins is a foul machine and has become the Celts' 8th man (and #3 big).

One reasonable strategy for the Warriors would be to hire Stan Van Gundy in 6-18 months.

Crow wrote:One reasonable strategy for the Warriors would be to hire Stan Van Gundy in 6-18 months.

It would have been reasonable for them to hire Mike Malone (as head coach) or Dwane Casey last summer, but...

It was long-time player / good talker (to some ears) vs pretty much career assistants. No big names, no proven star coaches. I don't know Malone's work / talent level but he seems to have a good rep.

I don't think it will come together for Jackson. I don't think he will change / grow enough because he doesn't think he needs to.

What does he do well besides exude confidence? I don't see an obvious positive team impact in the stats other than a big cut in own turnovers. Rebounding tanked. The two may both be parts of small ball.

Did he change Curry any for the better? Any players try harder or smarter on D? RAPM and raw on/off suggest Curry got better on D for whatever reason. Self-improvement, playing with Udoh, coaching or whatever.

bump, fwiw, seeing what was said then vs what happened.

Warriors get better whenever they get a new coach.

Dave Berri in first link in first post was highly skeptical of Bob Myers.

I had some skepticism too, in particular about speed of change. It did take awhile after 2012 to become great. I said a few things that bore out re: Jackson, Ellis, Bogut, need for defense. Evan pegged Ezeli, trying to trade Lee and hinted at the need for another front court guy, that was to be Draymond Green. He made very good into great. Teams should be looking for more Draymonds. One poor version- Kelly Olynyk. I'd be trying to trade for him. (Have him in one sim league. May try to get in another. But sims unlikely to fully capture value of special high synergy impact guys.)

Crow wrote:Dave Berri in first link in first post was highly skeptical of Bob Myers.

I had some skepticism too, in particular about speed of change. It did take awhile after 2012 to become great. I said a few things that bore out re: Jackson, Ellis, Bogut, need for defense. Evan pegged Ezeli, trying to trade Lee and hinted at the need for another front court guy, that was to be Draymond Green. He made very good into great. Teams should be looking for more Draymonds. One poor version- Kelly Olynyk. I'd be trying to trade for him. (Have him in one sim league. May try to get in another. But sims unlikely to fully capture value of special high synergy impact guys.)

Royce White was supposed to be that guy, but anxiety issues & such really crushed his potential.

As for undrafted last season - nobody really gave Seth Tuttle a shot imo. I easily could see him being a player of that ilk (not nearly THAT good mind you, but of the ilk). Now, he wouldn't be able to defend like Draymond - but a hard nosed stretch 4 with nice court awareness. He's in Germany, currently at 9.4/5.3/3.5 splits w/ 64% 2pt, 28% 3pt, 89% ft

MSU's current star Valentine is a two inch shorter Draymond Green - a SF/SG Draymond.

Yeah, Valentine should get a lot of attention. Not sure what position he'll play mainly. Depends a lot on team / lineup needs. And level of strength. Has the length.

Heard of Tuttle but will want to take a closer look. Guess sucking at Portsmouth hurt him in draft review, though 10 teams still worked him out. 3pts, 3rebs in 13 minutes per game in summer league for Heat is not much but not as terrible as it sounds for a deep bench prospect. Somebody probably with give another look next summer.

Crow wrote:Yeah, Valentine should get a lot of attention. Not sure what position he'll play mainly. Depends a lot on team / lineup needs. And level of strength. Has the length.

Heard of Tuttle but will want to take a closer look. Guess sucking at Portsmouth hurt him in draft review, though 10 teams still worked him out. 3pts, 3rebs in 13 minutes per game in summer league for Heat is not much but not as terrible as it sounds for a deep bench prospect. Somebody probably with give another look next summer.

Yeah, when I finish my world database (including all the DOBs for everyone) - & finish every league to NBA conversion - I'll have a much better tab om what players could be overlooked. It has driven me crazy not to have internationals in my draft model - but since I am to detailed oriented about this stuff, I now am pulling data from every pro league I can possibly get so I don't miss anyone.

I'm curious how much my career projection will change for Tuttle (with the limited summer league & preseason data - & his data from Germany). He projected a bit better by my model than any guy ever that never played a minute in the NBA. From memory - I believe the guard Steve Logan out of Cincy was the best projected eventual none NBA'er.