More on Pistons
Super huge commitment to 1 lineup, unrewarded. Cunningham Ivey Bey Bogdanovic Stewart almost -7 pts / 48 min.
Nothing else over about 2 minutes per game for season. Hayes in for Cunningham has ok results but too small a sample to believe.
Just 1 of 49 most used player pairs is positive.
Bottom 4 offense and defense. Worst shooting team. Worst defensive rebounding team.
Cunningham with a mildy negative BPM and few signs of improvement over last season.
'22-23 Commentary
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Knicks lineup management:
6 most used 5 man lineups all negative, from pretty bad to horrendous.
90% of 20 most used trios are negative. Brunson Barrett Randle is by far most used and 3rd worst in group at -8pts / 100p. It is used a bit over half the game. It has gotten much worse recently but the playing time is only barely diminished. The Knicks win the time this is not on the court pretty big. They can continue to ignore this or change.
80% of 20 most used pairs are negative. The positives are composed of Brunson Rose Quickley Toppin and Hartenstein. Just 1.5 starters, but 5 of the 6 best overall team +/-s on the court. These are the players to consider playing more and together more. Currently the most used trio composed from these 5 players is only 16th most used at less than 20 minutes per game. I'd use several of these trios 20 plus minutes per game.
Barrett continues to perform poorly. Contract decision was and is a crock. His peers' pick of him as best in draft class was and is a crock. The Knicks and ESPN rank of him 3rd in draft was and is a crock.
DARKO projection has him with 310th best rating and bottom 20% on rate of change this season.
6 most used 5 man lineups all negative, from pretty bad to horrendous.
90% of 20 most used trios are negative. Brunson Barrett Randle is by far most used and 3rd worst in group at -8pts / 100p. It is used a bit over half the game. It has gotten much worse recently but the playing time is only barely diminished. The Knicks win the time this is not on the court pretty big. They can continue to ignore this or change.
80% of 20 most used pairs are negative. The positives are composed of Brunson Rose Quickley Toppin and Hartenstein. Just 1.5 starters, but 5 of the 6 best overall team +/-s on the court. These are the players to consider playing more and together more. Currently the most used trio composed from these 5 players is only 16th most used at less than 20 minutes per game. I'd use several of these trios 20 plus minutes per game.
Barrett continues to perform poorly. Contract decision was and is a crock. His peers' pick of him as best in draft class was and is a crock. The Knicks and ESPN rank of him 3rd in draft was and is a crock.
DARKO projection has him with 310th best rating and bottom 20% on rate of change this season.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
There are 10 positive trios in Knicks 50 most used (over 50 minutes for season) that could pretty easily be cobbled together into a full rotation.
2 5 mans that incorporate 5 of the trios each. The 3rd and 11th most used. I'd probably make them 1, 2 by a large margin and see what happens.
Use 5-20 3 & 4 man variations to fill in minutes as needed overall and by situation. And use little else without compelling reason.
2 5 mans that incorporate 5 of the trios each. The 3rd and 11th most used. I'd probably make them 1, 2 by a large margin and see what happens.
Use 5-20 3 & 4 man variations to fill in minutes as needed overall and by situation. And use little else without compelling reason.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Timberwolves 3 point game way worse than last season. Defensive rebounding got worse.
Jaden McDaniels taking fewer 3s and pathetic on defensive boards. Part of both team issues.
4 of 5 most used lineups negative. By far biggest one, slightly negative, then only one other used clearly over the equivalent of 1 minute per game. Losing the dink game slightly on average too.
Lots not working, lots to change. Lots appears decided wrong. Plenty of time but plenty of competition too.
2 strong factors, 4 meh, 2 bad. Probably have to fix problems to improve. Kinda doubt they have much room to improve the strengths.
Play Russell with more precise lineups... or less... or trade him. Remote, trade or cut other guards. Probably play Prince more, possibly more in small-ball lineups.
Towns - Gobert is -2.7 pts / 100p. 11 most used pairs all negative. Towns - Gobert in middle of that pack but a lot worse than the non Towns - Gobert time.
Good number of lineups with just one are working in too small tests. There is a lineup with both but not Russell that is working in too small test. So start testing them more!
Jaden McDaniels taking fewer 3s and pathetic on defensive boards. Part of both team issues.
4 of 5 most used lineups negative. By far biggest one, slightly negative, then only one other used clearly over the equivalent of 1 minute per game. Losing the dink game slightly on average too.
Lots not working, lots to change. Lots appears decided wrong. Plenty of time but plenty of competition too.
2 strong factors, 4 meh, 2 bad. Probably have to fix problems to improve. Kinda doubt they have much room to improve the strengths.
Play Russell with more precise lineups... or less... or trade him. Remote, trade or cut other guards. Probably play Prince more, possibly more in small-ball lineups.
Towns - Gobert is -2.7 pts / 100p. 11 most used pairs all negative. Towns - Gobert in middle of that pack but a lot worse than the non Towns - Gobert time.
Good number of lineups with just one are working in too small tests. There is a lineup with both but not Russell that is working in too small test. So start testing them more!
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards move from 23rd on SRS last season to 18th currently. Where will they go from here?
Offense ranked 24th and lower than last season. Defense way higher. Does it last? Is this combo enough to make playoffs? Unlikely to be enough to do anything there. Ride with current roster or make significant changes? We'll eventually see.
Offense ranked 24th and lower than last season. Defense way higher. Does it last? Is this combo enough to make playoffs? Unlikely to be enough to do anything there. Ride with current roster or make significant changes? We'll eventually see.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards waive Schakel. 36 minutes on NBA test over close to a year.
Will he get a shot somewhere else?
Will he get a shot somewhere else?
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Sochan updated: Still 15% from 3, free throw now up to almost half of league average, meh rebounding, 0.55 A/TO, still negative DBPM, modest improvement to -5.5 BPM overall. Now down to 33rd on BPM in draft class though. (More played and some got better.)
Drafted 9th. 25th on my big board.
Drafted 9th. 25th on my big board.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Banchero compared to almost a month ago:
Efg% up... from 48% to 49%.
BPM down from +2.6 to +0.5.
Raw +/- on court and on / off both much better but on court is still -3 and on / off is less than +1.
Efg% up... from 48% to 49%.
BPM down from +2.6 to +0.5.
Raw +/- on court and on / off both much better but on court is still -3 and on / off is less than +1.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Dyson Daniels, the effective leader in draft class by BPM for those who have played more than brief minutes.
But... DRIP projection is -2 and DARKO projection is -1.5.
AJ Griffin, effectively 2nd there. Couple of skills (3pt fg%, steals, low turnovers) but very weak rebounding and passing. 15th on team by DRIP at -2.3.
By per counting stats, some might be impressed by Jaden Ivey. By BPM, DARKO and DRIP, he is performing and is expected to perform like a pretty typical negative impact high drafted rookie at around -1.5. I guess the higher end of the typical range but not special, yet.
But... DRIP projection is -2 and DARKO projection is -1.5.
AJ Griffin, effectively 2nd there. Couple of skills (3pt fg%, steals, low turnovers) but very weak rebounding and passing. 15th on team by DRIP at -2.3.
By per counting stats, some might be impressed by Jaden Ivey. By BPM, DARKO and DRIP, he is performing and is expected to perform like a pretty typical negative impact high drafted rookie at around -1.5. I guess the higher end of the typical range but not special, yet.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Barrett, 10-11th on Knicks by BPM, DRIP and DARKO.
Quickley 3rd, 4th and 7th. Quickley floated in trade rumors.
Similar with Toppin.
Quickley 3rd, 4th and 7th. Quickley floated in trade rumors.
Similar with Toppin.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Lillard - Hart and Simons - Winslow are best of 20 most used pairs on team +/- while on court... but not in 20 most used as a quad and not good to date.
Should it be used more? Why or why not? What does the tape show, what do the stats show? It is a feasible quad PG to PF.
Most of the other pairs within the quad are positive... but not the big money Lillard - Simmons, the worst of the group. Negative last season and worse this season. How to fix? Who would help? Play adjustments?
Add J Grant at Center to this quad... and it is +50 pts / 100p in a limited 17 minutes of test. Test more? Yes, please. No 5 man over 10 minutes use has performed better and yet it is 10th in trial.
Should it be used more? Why or why not? What does the tape show, what do the stats show? It is a feasible quad PG to PF.
Most of the other pairs within the quad are positive... but not the big money Lillard - Simmons, the worst of the group. Negative last season and worse this season. How to fix? Who would help? Play adjustments?
Add J Grant at Center to this quad... and it is +50 pts / 100p in a limited 17 minutes of test. Test more? Yes, please. No 5 man over 10 minutes use has performed better and yet it is 10th in trial.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Durant 21st on all-time NBA scoring list. Probably 12-14th by season's end if things go smoothly. Should pass Shaq for 10th next season.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Two ways to look at Spurs:
Lots of semi-plausible players with some upside potential. But as whole they're the worst team in league and likely to be weak for years.
I'd retire / fire the 3 principals, sooner than they will.
There is no clear design and very little to like at team level.
I'd try to trade or cut at least half the team.
Wembanyama? Trying for him but chances are they probably don't get him. How much would he help early? I think less than the mainstream thinks. Long-term, can't say.
Lots of semi-plausible players with some upside potential. But as whole they're the worst team in league and likely to be weak for years.
I'd retire / fire the 3 principals, sooner than they will.
There is no clear design and very little to like at team level.
I'd try to trade or cut at least half the team.
Wembanyama? Trying for him but chances are they probably don't get him. How much would he help early? I think less than the mainstream thinks. Long-term, can't say.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Beal on court today, team is -28. Slightly below neutral on and on / off for season before today but now deeper into the negative after.
Update: -3 on, -4 on / off. 12th on team for each.
+0.5 on DRIP. +1.2 on DARKO, lowest projection in about 5 years.
Update: -3 on, -4 on / off. 12th on team for each.
+0.5 on DRIP. +1.2 on DARKO, lowest projection in about 5 years.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Doncic ranks very high on some per game stats, influenced by 37.4 minutes per game, 38% usage and also a large role passing and rebounding.
Here are some shooting stat ranks not mentioned recently:
Efg%, 114th in league
3pt fg%, 164th
FT% 284th
TS% 60th
3pt fg% of 31.5% is at career low. FT% is pretty close to career low. Efg% and TS% at career highs but neither is super elite on the surface.
FT rate is at career high and 44th in league among all players.
The legend is heavily dependent on the huge minutes & monster role.
4 straight losses before last night (and before I saw last night's result) put Mavs tentatively in 9th playoff position. Team with Doncic on the court just +1 over those 4 games. Better than when he was off but worse than his on and on/off season averages. Last night worked out in the end.
He and / or rest of team will have to do better in places to achieve much this season. As much as last season? Currently looking unlikely. Too heliocentric? An enduring question.
As a team, Mavs are 20th on 3pt fg%, 7th on efg% and 11th on ts% and 13th on overall offensive rating. 11th on defensive rating.
What seeding do they end up with? Do they make it out of first round? Will find out in 5 months. 8th best SRS gives some hope. 30th on pace is something that might have an impact. Positive or negative.
Mavs are more than just a Doncic story. Ultimately more important, at least for some.
Doncic, negative overall results with 2 starters (weakest with Dinwiddie), barely positive with, very strong with Powell overall. Doncic Dinwiddie Powell works well, Doncic Powell no Dinwiddie is only mildly positive. Small samples can cause confusions. But they'll need to figure out this matter and other lineup matters.
Doncic Dinwiddie no Powell is currently a total dog though at -19pts / 100p in over 200 minutes of use. I'd stop that. Some might want to try to fix it but as the only combo of the 3 on or off that is negative besides Dinwiddie without the other two, I'd take that clue and just stop. But they made it the 3rd most used of the combos. Stubborn, not caring? I dunno the rationale.
Here are some shooting stat ranks not mentioned recently:
Efg%, 114th in league
3pt fg%, 164th
FT% 284th
TS% 60th
3pt fg% of 31.5% is at career low. FT% is pretty close to career low. Efg% and TS% at career highs but neither is super elite on the surface.
FT rate is at career high and 44th in league among all players.
The legend is heavily dependent on the huge minutes & monster role.
4 straight losses before last night (and before I saw last night's result) put Mavs tentatively in 9th playoff position. Team with Doncic on the court just +1 over those 4 games. Better than when he was off but worse than his on and on/off season averages. Last night worked out in the end.
He and / or rest of team will have to do better in places to achieve much this season. As much as last season? Currently looking unlikely. Too heliocentric? An enduring question.
As a team, Mavs are 20th on 3pt fg%, 7th on efg% and 11th on ts% and 13th on overall offensive rating. 11th on defensive rating.
What seeding do they end up with? Do they make it out of first round? Will find out in 5 months. 8th best SRS gives some hope. 30th on pace is something that might have an impact. Positive or negative.
Mavs are more than just a Doncic story. Ultimately more important, at least for some.
Doncic, negative overall results with 2 starters (weakest with Dinwiddie), barely positive with, very strong with Powell overall. Doncic Dinwiddie Powell works well, Doncic Powell no Dinwiddie is only mildly positive. Small samples can cause confusions. But they'll need to figure out this matter and other lineup matters.
Doncic Dinwiddie no Powell is currently a total dog though at -19pts / 100p in over 200 minutes of use. I'd stop that. Some might want to try to fix it but as the only combo of the 3 on or off that is negative besides Dinwiddie without the other two, I'd take that clue and just stop. But they made it the 3rd most used of the combos. Stubborn, not caring? I dunno the rationale.