APBRmetrics

Neil Paine wrote:As for why I scaled everyone to an average record of 41-41 -- I think it's silly to dock people for rounding errors or if the totals don't add up exactly to 1,230 wins. It takes literally no predictive skill to guess that there will be 1,230 games won in the upcoming season, so why not put everyone there as a starting point?

There were less than 1230 games won this year... ;->

But seriously speaking, I think your assumption is wrong that all of those are errors! Vegas' over/under lines 5th year in a row don't match with total possible wins [and some of them are off by 10+!] so either they can't count or they do it ON PURPOSE.

BTW, I tried again to expand this contest to include more than APBR people but this year I didn't find another winner: http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/ ... ojections/

wilq wrote: There were less than 1230 games won this year... ;->

But seriously speaking, I think your assumption is wrong that all of those are errors! Vegas' over/under lines 5th year in a row don't match with total possible wins [and some of them are off by 10+!] so either they can't count or they do it ON PURPOSE.

BTW, I tried again to expand this contest to include more than APBR people but this year I didn't find another winner: http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/ ... ojections/

Putting it very simply: predictions which don't add up to total wins are cheating, and should either be scaled or discarded. Bookies know this as overround.