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Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:15 am
by Mike G
Same method and another huge improvement by everyone:
Code: Select all
kmed 4.94 GK5. 5.68
shad 5.00 vegas 5.83
cali 5.32 emin 5.91
RyRi 5.33 538_ 5.97
sbs. 5.42 sndi 6.02
lnqi 5.43 Josh 6.10
gold 5.47 ncs. 6.20
ATCt 5.48 knar 6.45
avg* 5.50 Nath 6.51
Crow 5.57 Mike 6.85
AJBk 5.58 17PyR 7.21
is the aforediscussed
Pinnacle line via shadow.
17PyR is last season's Pyth Wins regressed halfway to 41.
Several improve by more than 1.00 in 2 days. Several teams have decided to be more as-expected.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:50 pm
by Mike G
Big shakeup as 538 surges from below-avg to the top.
Note kmedved did not get worse overnight, but everyone else looks better.
The list on the left is the avg of: our avg prediction; and the projection due to current performance (SRS+MOV)/2 record.
On the right, our group avg is ignored -- strictly current W-L and point differential applied to remaining games.
Code: Select all
(rec+pred)/2 record only
538_ 4.6 ATCt 9.4
Crow 4.6 cali 9.4
cali 4.7 Crow 9.5
shad 4.8 shad 9.6
ATCt 4.9 gold 9.7
kmed 4.9 AJBk 9.8
sndi 5.0 GK5. 9.8
gold 5.0 kmed 9.9
lnqi 5.1 sndi 9.9
avg* 5.1 vegas 9.9
AJBk 5.1 538_ 10.0
sbs. 5.1 sbs. 10.0
RyRi 5.2 avg* 10.2
GK5. 5.3 lnqi 10.2
emin 5.3 17PyR 10.3
Josh 5.3 Josh 10.3
knar 5.4 knar 10.3
vegas 5.5 emin 10.3
ncs. 6.0 RyRi 10.3
Nath 6.0 ncs. 10.7
Mike 6.1 Mike 10.7
17PyR 6.2 Nath 11.3
Previously, I had not entered SRS for teams whose W-L record was unchanged. But some SRS change dramatically overnight, even when the team didn't play.
UPDATE Oct 31
Code: Select all
(rec+pred)/2 record only
gold 4.9 gold 10.2
Crow 5.0 Crow 10.5
shad 5.1 kmed 10.5
kmed 5.4 shad 10.6
cali 5.4 cali 10.8
avg 5.5 AJBk 11.0
RyRi 5.5 sndi 11.0
sndi 5.6 RyRi 11.0
lnqi 5.6 lnqi 11.0
AJBk 5.6 avg 11.0
sbs. 5.6 vegas 11.1
vegas 5.6 ATCt 11.1
ATCt 5.8 sbs. 11.1
538_ 5.9 538_ 11.2
Josh 6.0 emin 11.3
emin 6.0 Josh 11.3
knar 6.3 knar 11.7
Nath 6.4 17PyR 11.8
GK5. 6.6 GK5. 11.9
ncs. 6.7 Nath 11.9
Mike 7.0 ncs. 12.1
17PyR 7.2 Mike 12.5
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:44 am
by Mike G
Just a handful of teams are performing within the range of our predictions.
Figuring
expected wins as current W + (82-W-L)*Pyth%
where Pyth% is based on (MOV+SRS)/2
... our avg errors lay out like this:
Code: Select all
avg tm xW hi low
25 Orl 58.3 37 28
16 Por 57.4 47 38
16 Ind 48.0 36 28
15 LAC 63.3 54 40
15 Mem 51.7 41 33
14 Det 49.7 41 33
12 Okl 63.0 56 46
11 Bos 59.1 52 42
9 Tor 56.9 56 45
8 Uta 51.0 50 38
8 LAL 35.8 32 22
3 NYK 33.6 34 26
2 Cha 46.4 47 42
2 Was 49.3 50 45
0 Phl 35.2 40 30
-1 Brk 27.5 32 25
-4 Phx 22.5 32 23
-4 Den 42.4 52 43
-6 NOP 35.5 48 38
-7 GSW 60.0 71 63
-9 Mil 36.4 50 40
-9 Hou 49.0 65 55
-10 Mia 33.4 46 38
-10 Atl 16.6 35 22
-11 Chi 14.7 31 21
-13 Sac 13.3 33 21
-14 Min 34.5 51 44
-14 SAS 39.5 58 47
-15 Dal 17.4 39 29
-32 Cle 23.0 60 51
So we are all 28 to 37 wins too high on the Cavs, and 21 to 30 low on the Magic, relative to their play thru 10% of the season.
Oddly, the teams with narrowest spread in our guesses -- Wiz and Hornets -- are among those performing within predictions.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:06 pm
by kmedved
I'll update the BetOnline picks sometime this weekend with a better set of Vegas picks (probably the Pinnacle ones posted earlier). As mentioned, BetOnline's format makes beating the number somewhat easier since they juice the payouts a lot instead.
Remarkably little relationship between RMSE/Absolute Error rankings and record vs. BetOnline at the moment.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:16 pm
by nbacouchside
Getting crushed. Smh.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:33 pm
by Mike G
OKC is 4-4, and Phx is 4-5, and they're expected to win 54 and 27 respectively.
I know why this is so; it just seems funny.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:35 pm
by Mike G
Now giving current records -- Wins, (MOV+SRS)/2 -- twice as much weight as 'our average prediction'.
2nd column is still averaging MOV+SRS, and we've all improved in that one.
Code: Select all
rec2+1pred record only
gold 5.6 gold 8.8
shad 5.9 shad 9.1
Crow 6.1 538_ 9.3
vegas 6.2 Crow 9.3
538_ 6.3 vegas 9.4
Josh 6.3 sndi 9.5
lnqi 6.4 lnqi 9.5
cali 6.4 Josh 9.5
sndi 6.4 cali 9.6
sbs. 6.4 sbs. 9.7
AJBk 6.5 AJBk 9.8
RyRi 6.5 emin 9.8
avg- 6.6 kmed 9.8
kmed 6.6 RyRi 9.8
emin 6.8 avg- 9.8
ATCt 6.9 17PyR 10.1
Nath 7.1 ATCt 10.1
GK5. 7.1 Nath 10.2
knar 7.4 GK5. 10.3
17PyR 7.6 knar 10.6
ncs. 8.0 ncs. 11.3
Mike 8.2 Mike 11.4
I don't recall a previous contest, nor think of a reason, that our
avg is doing so poorly.
It's as if a student is given 1/3 of the test answers and still gets a C-
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:44 pm
by kmedved
Mike correctly guessed that the "wins vs. BetOnline" column looked off. I found a fat finger error there, and now the results as much more reasonable:
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:04 am
by Crow
Just to be sure Mike, you mean MOV plus SRS and not plus SOS? To average the first two?
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:15 am
by Mike G
Yes. And since MOV + SOS = SRS, the formula could be stated as: (MOV*3 + SOS)/4
I just don't think either MOV or SRS can be fully trusted right now; averaging them lends some stability.
Meanwhile, I am dropping the
community average factor, so we will be on a smooth continuum; with hopefully not too abrupt a shift when b-r.com Playoff Probabilities page comes online.
Code: Select all
avg error avg error
gold 7.7 RyRi 8.8
shad 8.1 Josh 8.9
Crow 8.1 kmed 9.0
vegas 8.2 Nath 9.0
lnqi 8.6 emin 9.1
sbs. 8.6 ATCt 9.2
538_ 8.7 knar 9.5
sndi 8.7 GK5. 9.7
cali 8.7 ncs. 10.1
AJBk 8.7 Mike 10.2
These errors are now a continuation of the
record only column.
update Nov 7:
Errors are relative to these win projections:
Code: Select all
West W East W
GSW 65 Bos 61
Okl 57 Tor 54
Hou 57 Det 52
Por 55 Was 48
LAC 55 Orl 45
Mem 51 Ind 42
Min 44 Phl 41
SAS 42 NYK 40
Uta 40 Cha 38
LAL 40 Mil 34
Den 38 Mia 34
NOP 38 Brk 27
Phx 19 Cle 27
Dal 17 Chi 24
Sac 14 Atl 20
West teams avg 42.7, East 39.3
Update Nov 8
Code: Select all
shad 7.4 sndi 8.2
gold 7.5 AJBk 8.3
Crow 7.8 kmed 8.4
vegas 7.9 Nath 8.4
sbs. 7.9 emin 8.5
cali 8.0 ATCt 8.6
lnqi 8.0 GK5. 8.9
538_ 8.1 knar 9.0
Josh 8.1 Mike 9.4
RyRi 8.1 ncs. 9.5
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:28 pm
by Mike G
Dallas is killing me. I picked them to win 39, a full 3 wins more than the next highest and 6.3 above our avg. I wondered about this but stuck to my guns.
Last year they were the 8th oldest team at 27.6. This is one year above NBA avg. This year they are 6th oldest at 28.0
They have hardly any personnel changes from the end of last season, other than the addition of #9 draft pick Dennis Smith.
Here are some last year's and this year's stats; I used Kevin Pelton's suggested minutes, and they are shown as
mpg? , as in minutes/82. Actual 2017-18 minutes/12 are shown as MPG thru 12.
Last year rates are also uncapitalized and with the question mark.
Code: Select all
Dal'18 mpg? MPG per? PER ws/48? WS/48 bpm? BPM rpm?
Barnes 33 35 16.3 15.2 .079 .052 -1.9 -2.8 - .3
Matthews 32 34 11.9 10.6 .060 .033 .1 -1.0 .3
Smith * 24 24 13 11.2 .07 -.074 -1 -4.3 -1.
Curry 23 0 15.5 .109 1.4 .5
Nowitzki 23 24 17.1 11.4 .084 .015 -1.3 -4.2 .3
Noel 22 17 20.4 16.3 .182 .123 3.3 - .1 1.3
Ferrell 19 28 13.2 12.3 .072 .078 - .7 - .5 -2.2
Barea 18 22 17.3 17.5 .080 .060 - .6 .3 -1.4
F-Smith 14 6 7.7 7.1 .041 .003 -1.5 -3.9 -2.2
Harris 14 12 13.8 15.4 .096 .115 - .4 - .8 .7
Mejri 11 8 14.9 21.1 .159 .181 .2 4.0 1.0
Powell 5 16 17.7 9.8 .166 .028 1.4 - .9 -1.2
Kleiber * 3 6 10 18.4 .04 .166 -3 2.2 -3.
Withey 0 2 18.8 7.3 .205 -.062 1.6 -12.9 - .9
Clavell * 0 5 8 7.5 .02 .037 -5 -2.4 -5.
totals 240 240 14.8 13.2 .092 .049 -.25 -1.6 - .3
This season's RPM are not yet available at ESPN.
Rookie
? stats are invented and don't seem too radical or influential.
A team with PER=14.8, WS/48 = .092, BPM and RPM = -1.0 to -1.3 (multiply by 4.2?) should be a nearly average team, yes?
So Curry doesn't show, and most everyone else has horrific dropoffs in play. How am I the only one to not anticipate this?
Applying last year's RPM to actual minutes, we get a team RPM of -2.6
This is still a team that should win 34 games -- not 15 to 20.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:35 am
by J.E.
What value are you using for rookies? Seems like Dennis Smith is hurting them - 46% TS% with 4.5 TO/36 - and he plays lots of minutes
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:28 am
by Mike G
In the above exercise, I used .70 for DSmith; pre-season I had used .80, but it matters little.
Given the Mavs' needs, it kinda seems like they require minutes from someone who can do the things he does.
It looks like there's not much correlation between rookie performance and draft pick. I've included my guess at their rates, based entirely on pick order, shown as
e484?, in which 1.00 is average. Then their rates to date (e484 as of yesterday).
Code: Select all
pic rookie tm e484? e484 PER WS/48 BPM
1 Simmons Phl 1.20 1.83 20.0 .147 4.2
1 Fultz Phl 1.20 .00 3.9 -.081 -9.1
2 Ball LAL 1.15 .78 8.9 -.022 -1.4
3 Tatum Bos 1.10 1.35 17.6 .215 3.7
4 Jo Jackson Phx 1.05 .40 8.3 -.038 -5.5
5 Fox Sac 1.00 .88 12.9 -.009 -3.6
6 Isaac Orl .95 .52 10.9 .080 -.1
7 Markkanen Chi .90 1.11 16.1 .131 .3
8 Ntilikina NYK .85 .52 8.5 -.023 -3.1
9 D Smith Dal .80 .79 11.2 -.074 -4.3
pic rookie tm e484? e484 PER WS/48 BPM
10 Z Collins Por .75 -.87 -13.4 -.248 -12.8
11 Monk Cha .70 .51 9.5 -.006 -3.4
12 Kennard Det .65 .04 5.5 -.032 -6.0
13 Mitchell Uta .60 .76 9.4 -.040 -4.3
14 Adebayo Mia .55 .81 14.3 .141 -5.1
15 Ju Jackson Sac .50 .13 10.4 .044 -4.0
17 Wilson Mil .45 -.03 6.6 -.014 -12.3
18 Leaf Ind .425 .28 10.2 .039 -4.1
19 J Collins Atl .40 1.32 20.5 .146 -1.1
22 Allen Brk .34 .42 10.9 .055 -1.4
23 Anunoby Tor .315 .78 13.5 .124 2.7
26 Swanigan Por .255 .64 8.4 .016 -3.1
27 Kuzma LAL .22 1.03 15.2 .117 -.7
I assigned .
20 to all picks after 27.
Correlations to draft pick (inverted):
.09 - eWins
.01 - BPM
-.07 - PER
-.18 - WinShares
If one goes beyond the 1st round, it might get worse.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:43 am
by kmedved
Shadow has now taken the projected lead using regressed SRS as a baseline for future wins.
I feel like we're seeing bigger gaps between RMSE and absolute error than before, but that may be an early season effect.
Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:49 am
by Mike G
How does the Cavs' SRS of -5.0 project to 42 wins?
Orlando at +2.5 is headed to 40 wins?