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Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 12:13 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:14 pm
I am tied with Darko for variances from BRef current projection by 2 or less but have 5 more of 7 or greater.
You may be pleased to know that, while drko leads at exponents 1 and 2 and everything above; you have the lead at e<.15.
This is due to 4 direct hits -- on Bos, Brk, NYK, Den -- and a couple other near-best guesses.
It's an unstable position though. Whether these teams win or lose their next game, you've lost them as zero-errors.
UPDATE Nov 12
Here's the contest mixing everyone from within and without, plus 2 more 'dummies':
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 4.59 5.54 .50 EBPI 5.95 6.93 .31
LEBR 5.11 6.27 .37 4141 6.09 7.68
dtka 5.13 6.64 .37 vzro 6.14 7.44 .35
KPel 5.16 6.61 .32 ChKl 6.22 7.87 .30
ncs. 5.36 6.61 .36 eWin 6.38 7.75 .08
trzu 5.41 6.69 .35 vegas 6.39 7.52 .29
avgA 5.45 6.68 .36 emin 6.75 8.20 .33
Crow 5.51 7.01 .32 EExp 6.76 7.95 .28
23py 5.51 7.12 .18 IanL 6.94 8.50 .28
23re 5.68 7.03 .20 DQin 7.03 8.71 .17
medi 5.89 7.03 .46 NuFi 7.22 9.61 .16
is last year's win total regressed halfway to 41.
23re = (W+41)/2
23py is last year's Pythagorean "should have won" based on point differential; also averaged with 41.
UPDATE Nov.13 -- Darko's biggest lead yet.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 4.57 5.65 .52 23re 6.03 7.22 .22
dtka 5.16 6.71 .38 vzro 6.19 7.42 .37
trzu 5.22 6.73 .38 ChKl 6.25 7.81 .33
KPel 5.31 6.74 .34 vegas 6.32 7.61 .30
LEBR 5.32 6.45 .38 4141 6.59 8.05
ncs. 5.38 6.73 .37 EExp 6.67 7.99 .30
avgA 5.40 6.76 .38 eWin 6.79 8.06 .08
Crow 5.53 7.09 .34 IanL 6.83 8.47 .30
medi 5.75 6.82 .49 emin 6.97 8.26 .34
23py 5.87 7.28 .20 DQin 7.13 8.86 .18
EBPI 5.97 7.09 .32 NuFi 7.42 9.78 .16
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:04 pm
by Mike G
After knocking off the Nuggets -- their 6th straight win -- Houston Rockets now are projected to win 46 games. This is a full 14 wins more than our Average guess, making them by far the most overachieving team, by this definition.
Looking at their 2022-23 numbers, and even knowing their minutes this year, most analyses would not anticipate such improvement. So here they are, and in the 2nd table I've converted PER and BPM to "wins" and averaged with WS to get xyzWins:
Code: Select all
Hou 2023: mpg PER WS/48 BPM '24: mpg PER WS/48 BPM
VanVleet 31 17.0 .123 2.5 36 15.0 .120 0.2
Ja Green 32 14.5 .034 -2.1 32 14.6 .079 0.7
Şengün 26 19.7 .115 1.4 31 25.0 .241 7.4
Brooks 27 9.4 .034 -3.9 31 13.5 .133 -0.6
Ja Smith 30 11.2 .037 -3.7 28 13.3 .107 -1.4
Ja Tate 8 12.2 .049 -3.5 20 15.8 .198 3.7
Je Green 13 11.0 .074 -3.4 15 17.7 .200 0.7
A Holiday 10 9.4 .053 -2.0 12 8.1 .046 -4.5
Landale 12 16.4 .132 -1.1 9 7.4 .020 -4.7
Thompson (17.0 .140 2.0) 7 7.1 -.009 -5.9
Hou 2023: mpg PER WS/48 BPM '24: mpg PER WS/48 BPM
Bullock 29 7.7 .056 -2.6 6 2.3 -.003 -5.1
Eason 22 15.2 .070 -1.7 5 14.9 .083 0.0
Whitmore (12.6 .052 -2.1) 3 0.9 -.164 -14.6
Boban M 2 23.4 .158 1.6 2 23.1 .224 3.3
J Williams 2 15.5 .120 -3.0 1 22.6 .159 5.1
. totals: 244 13.4 .070 -1.6 240 14.9 .125 0.4
mpg are minutes divided by team games -- 82 or 9
Code: Select all
Hou 2023: xyzW perW WS bpmW '24: xyzW perW WS bpmW
VanVleet 6.7 6.4 6.4 7.5 6.5 6.1 7.2 6.3
Ja Green 3.4 5.1 1.8 3.4 5.9 5.2 4.2 6.1
Şengün 5.8 6.8 5.1 5.5 12.0 11.1 12.7 12.1
Brooks 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 5.3 4.4 6.9 4.7
Ja Smith 2.2 3.0 1.9 1.8 4.2 3.9 5.0 3.6
Ja Tate .7 1.0 .7 .5 5.4 3.8 6.7 5.6
Je Green 1.3 1.3 1.6 .9 3.8 3.4 5.1 2.9
A Holiday .9 .7 .9 1.1 .6 .5 .9 .4
Landale 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.6 .3 .3 .3 .3
Thompson .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 -.1 .0
Hou 2023: xyzW perW WS bpmW '24: xyzW perW WS bpmW
Bullock 2.1 1.0 2.7 2.7 -.1 -.4 .0 .1
Eason 2.9 3.7 2.5 2.6 .9 .9 .8 .9
Whitmore .0 .0 .0 .0 -.5 -.2 -.7 -.7
Boban M .6 .7 .6 .4 .7 .7 .8 .6
Je Williams .2 .3 .3 .1 .4 .4 .4 .5
. totals: 30.3 33.6 28.1 29.2 44.6 40.3 50.3 43.3
"Wins" for this year (on the right) are multiplied by 82/9 to project to the full season, at current rates. Top 7 guys have not missed any games.
It seems PER relatively overvalues Rockets last year and undervalues this year. Their defense has been the main reason for improvement -- 11 fewer ppg allowed -- and there's no D in PER.
WS projected total is anomalously high this year, and I guess it's about point differential (+5.4) without regard for strength of schedule (-2.15 thus far).
BPM accounts for this stuff, so they look like a 43-39 team in that column: almost double last year's wins (22)
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2023 11:37 am
by Mike G
A great shakeup overnight. Not so great for some.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 4.74 6.10 .50 vzro 5.90 7.44 .40
trzu 5.14 6.87 .40 ChKl 5.95 7.54 .39
medi 5.16 6.63 .54 vegas 6.00 7.59 .34
Crow 5.26 6.99 .40 EExp 6.22 7.86 .35
avgA 5.36 6.88 .40 IanL 6.56 8.20 .36
dtka 5.36 6.97 .39 emin 6.75 8.19 .37
KPel 5.39 6.98 .36 4141 6.76 8.62
ncs. 5.39 7.05 .37 eWin 7.00 8.39 .10
LEBR 5.51 6.92 .36 DQin 7.02 9.10 .18
EBPI 5.77 7.09 .37 NuFi 7.53 9.93 .17
UPDATE Nov.16
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.74 6.27 .59 DRKO 4.97 6.26 .51
trzu 5.17 6.79 .44 KPel 5.55 7.11 .37
avgA 5.34 6.80 .44 ChKl 5.63 7.07 .47
Crow 5.38 6.97 .42 vegas 5.70 7.31 .40
dtka 5.49 6.91 .43 LEBR 5.76 7.00 .39
ncs. 5.53 7.13 .39 EBPI 5.85 7.15 .39
vzro 5.88 7.30 .43 EExp 5.93 7.48 .41
emin 6.50 8.03 .40 IanL 6.09 7.63 .44
eWin 7.19 8.41 .14 4141 7.18 8.94
DQin 7.30 9.14 .20 NuFi 7.37 9.75 .20
UPDATE Nov.17
Code: Select all
.Atl Bos Brk Cha Chi Cle Det Ind
DQ 46 b-r 62 nc 45 em 36 DQ 42 med 53 eW 35 b-r 46
b-r 45 med 60 b-r 44 eW 36 nc 40 DQ 51 b-r 30 eW 39
Cr 44 vz 59 Cr 42 vz 33 vz 39 dt 50 dko 28 dt 38
dko 43 dko 57 dko 41 nc 33 Cr 39 tz 49 nc 28 tz 37
vz 43 nc 57 vz 41 dt 33 eW 39 vz 49 tz 28 Cr 35
dt 43 em 57 dt 40 tz 31 dko 39 em 49 Cr 27 vz 34
nc 42 Cr 57 med 40 dko 31 tz 37 Cr 49 dt 26 dko 34
tz 42 DQ 56 tz 40 b-r 31 dt 36 nc 48 DQ 25 nc 34
em 40 dt 56 em 39 Cr 31 med 36 dko 46 med 24 em 33
med 39 tz 55 DQ 38 DQ 30 b-r 34 eW 44 vz 22 med 33
eW 39 eW 52 eW 36 med 27 em 32 b-r 42 em 21 DQ 32
_Mia Mil NYK Orl Phl Tor Was
DQ 45 em 56 vz 56 b-r 41 DQ 54 dko 46 nc 34
tz 44 eW 53 med 51 med 41 b-r 54 dt 42 DQ 34
nc 43 vz 52 b-r 48 eW 40 vz 52 Cr 42 eW 33
vz 43 DQ 51 nc 48 DQ 40 nc 51 DQ 42 vz 33
b-r 42 dt 50 tz 47 em 37 med 50 vz 41 dko 32
Cr 42 med 49 dko 47 tz 37 dko 50 nc 41 Cr 31
dt 42 tz 48 dt 47 dko 37 tz 48 eW 40 b-r 30
dko 42 nc 47 Cr 46 dt 34 em 48 tz 40 tz 28
eW 42 Cr 47 DQ 45 Cr 33 dt 46 b-r 39 dt 28
em 41 dko 44 em 44 nc 33 Cr 44 em 38 med 28
med 41 b-r 43 eW 42 vz 33 eW 38 med 38 em 20
_Dal Den GSW Hou LAC LAL Mem Min
b-r 46 em 60 em 52 b-r 47 DQ 45 DQ 52 dt 47 em 53
dt 44 med 54 nc 50 med 39 eW 44 eW 45 tz 46 b-r 53
nc 43 b-r 54 dko 48 eW 36 med 44 tz 44 Cr 45 dko 49
DQ 42 Cr 53 dt 48 dko 36 Cr 43 med 43 eW 45 med 48
tz 41 tz 51 vz 47 dt 34 vz 43 em 43 DQ 45 Cr 48
med 41 vz 49 tz 47 Cr 32 dko 42 nc 42 em 44 dt 47
dko 41 dko 49 Cr 46 tz 31 dt 42 dt 41 med 44 nc 47
eW 40 DQ 48 b-r 45 vz 31 tz 41 dko 41 nc 43 vz 46
vz 40 dt 48 med 45 nc 31 nc 41 Cr 40 vz 43 tz 46
em 39 nc 48 eW 41 em 29 em 40 vz 39 dko 42 DQ 41
Cr 39 eW 45 DQ 37 DQ 25 b-r 38 b-r 36 b-r 25 eW 39
_NOP OKC Phx Por Sac SAS Uta
DQ 48 b-r 50 dt 49 eW 39 em 49 em 36 DQ 41
em 48 med 48 DQ 48 nc 33 Cr 47 eW 35 Cr 40
Cr 46 tz 44 tz 48 dt 32 med 45 dko 33 eW 39
eW 45 eW 44 med 48 tz 31 vz 43 nc 30 vz 39
vz 45 dt 41 vz 47 dko 31 b-r 42 dt 28 nc 38
tz 45 em 41 dko 47 Cr 29 nc 41 tz 28 dt 37
dt 44 Cr 40 Cr 46 DQ 29 eW 41 DQ 27 tz 37
med 43 vz 37 eW 46 vz 28 tz 41 Cr 27 dko 36
nc 43 dko 37 nc 45 em 28 dko 39 b-r 26 med 34
dko 41 DQ 35 em 45 b-r 27 DQ 39 med 24 em 32
b-r 39 nc 33 b-r 40 med 21 dt 37 vz 24 b-r 31
UPDATE Nov.18 -- it's a rout!
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.30 5.87 .65 vzro 5.73 7.11 .48
trzu 5.00 6.59 .50 LEBR 5.76 7.02 .43
DRKO 5.06 6.31 .54 IanL 5.77 7.21 .50
avgA 5.23 6.64 .50 EExp 5.78 7.09 .48
Crow 5.34 6.95 .46 EBPI 5.82 7.03 .44
dtka 5.36 6.79 .48 23re 6.19 7.76 .31
KPel 5.40 7.15 .41 emin 6.57 7.87 .43
ChKl 5.49 6.77 .52 DQin 7.07 8.81 .26
ncs. 5.59 7.24 .41 eWin 7.08 8.37 .20
vegas 5.66 6.99 .47 NuFi 7.33 9.52 .24
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:41 pm
by mediocre
Thanks for updating daily, Mike!
I've been helped a lot by combined losing streaks of 31 games between CHA, WAS, DET, POR, and SAS.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 4:07 pm
by Mike G
Welcome!
You have the current best guess (or tied) for Bos, Cha, Chi, Mia, NYK, Orl, Was; GSW, Hou, and OKC.
Within 1 of best on Den, Mem, NOP, SAS, Uta.
Worst on Cle! near worst with Atl, Ind, Phx.
I don't update every day unless things change abruptly. The SOS factors have mostly stabilized by now, but a blowout -- or several -- can scramble things overnight.
Seems you have gotten benefit from all of them this week.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 3:10 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 3.86 5.30 .71 EExp 5.53 6.83 .53
trzu 4.97 6.46 .55 vegas 5.57 6.80 .52
DRKO 4.99 6.44 .56 ncs. 5.68 7.44 .41
avgA 5.16 6.55 .54 LEBR 5.75 7.11 .46
Crow 5.17 6.87 .50 EBPI 5.87 7.02 .47
ChKl 5.22 6.50 .57 23re 6.19 7.77 .36
dtka 5.26 6.83 .50 emin 6.45 7.73 .46
KPel 5.30 7.15 .45 DQin 6.98 8.67 .30
vzro 5.43 6.99 .51 eWin 7.23 8.47 .23
IanL 5.48 6.82 .56 NuFi 7.58 9.54 .26
UPDATE Nov.21 -- mediocre's lead drops from 1.11 to .43
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.22 5.45 .70 LEBR 5.46 7.16 .46
trzu 4.65 6.37 .57 ncs. 5.53 7.42 .42
dtka 4.95 6.64 .53 EExp 5.56 6.87 .53
DRKO 4.96 6.48 .56 EBPI 5.69 6.85 .50
avgA 5.00 6.50 .55 IanL 5.80 7.14 .53
Crow 5.14 6.86 .50 emin 6.29 7.57 .48
KPel 5.24 7.01 .48 23re 6.33 7.85 .35
ChKl 5.29 6.73 .55 DQin 6.65 8.59 .31
vzro 5.38 6.97 .51 eWin 6.94 8.47 .23
vegas 5.44 6.74 .53 NuFi 7.28 9.48 .27
UPDATE Nov.23
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.66 5.96 .66 vzro 5.79 7.73 .44
trzu 4.89 6.91 .52 EBPI 5.81 7.36 .46
avgA 5.30 7.08 .50 ncs. 5.86 8.08 .36
dtka 5.37 7.22 .48 LEBR 5.90 7.67 .41
DRKO 5.42 7.10 .49 IanL 6.15 7.32 .52
ChKl 5.56 7.20 .51 emin 6.60 7.97 .45
KPel 5.61 7.63 .42 23re 6.64 8.41 .29
vegas 5.65 7.12 .50 DQin 6.86 9.05 .28
Crow 5.66 7.58 .43 eWin 7.18 8.74 .23
EExp 5.68 7.27 .50 NuFi 7.50 9.90 .24
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 6:47 pm
by nbacouchside
My RMSE and r-squared looking embarrassingly bad at the moment. Yikes.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Nov 23, 2023 7:56 pm
by Mike G
On Nov. 13, mediocre was 1.18 behind the leader in MAE, and 6 days later they were 1.11 in front of the pack.
This is pretty remarkable over the history of this contest, and part of this is that medi had a lot of "extreme" guesses -- highest or lowest among us -- and they quickly shifted from mostly bad to mostly good guesses.
Their r^2 dominance seems to have preceded their MAE and RMSE leads by a few days. So maybe it's a good predictor, in some sense.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 26, 2023 1:34 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.76 6.36 .62 ncs. 5.86 8.50 .30
trzu 5.22 7.33 .47 EBPI 5.91 7.68 .42
avgA 5.35 7.47 .45 vzro 5.93 8.13 .40
dtka 5.52 7.66 .42 IanL 6.08 7.43 .51
ChKl 5.54 7.28 .50 LEBR 6.08 7.95 .37
KPel 5.62 8.01 .36 23re 6.49 8.62 .26
DRKO 5.63 7.44 .45 emin 6.51 8.36 .41
vegas 5.70 7.44 .46 DQin 6.86 9.31 .25
Crow 5.75 7.97 .38 eWin 7.31 8.91 .21
EExp 5.75 7.54 .47 NuFi 7.67 10.33 .20
UPDATE Nov.28
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.79 6.4 .63 vegas 5.95 7.6 .46
trzu 5.36 7.4 .48 EExp 6.03 7.7 .46
avgA 5.50 7.5 .46 EBPI 6.13 7.8 .43
DRKO 5.60 7.4 .48 LEBR 6.16 8.0 .39
dtka 5.66 7.7 .43 IanL 6.41 7.7 .49
vzro 5.76 8.0 .42 emin 6.59 8.4 .42
KPel 5.77 8.1 .38 23re 6.65 8.7 .29
Crow 5.78 8.0 .40 DQin 7.03 9.3 .26
ChKl 5.85 7.6 .48 eWin 7.50 9.2 .20
ncs. 5.93 8.4 .33 NuFi 7.72 10.4 .20
Nov.29
Code: Select all
Atl Bos Brk Cha Chi Cle Det Ind
DQ 46 med 60 nc 45 em 36 DQ 42 med 53 eW 35 b-r 43
b-r 44 b-r 59 b-r 45 eW 36 nc 40 DQ 51 nc 28 eW 39
Cr 44 vz 59 Cr 42 vz 33 vz 39 dt 50 tz 28 dt 38
vz 43 nc 57 vz 41 nc 33 Cr 39 tz 49 Cr 27 tz 37
dt 43 em 57 dt 40 dt 33 eW 39 vz 49 dt 26 Cr 35
nc 42 Cr 57 med 40 tz 31 tz 37 em 49 DQ 25 vz 34
tz 42 DQ 56 tz 40 Cr 31 dt 36 Cr 49 med 24 nc 34
em 40 dt 56 em 39 DQ 30 med 36 nc 48 b-r 24 em 33
med 39 tz 55 DQ 38 b-r 27 em 32 b-r 44 vz 22 med 33
eW 39 eW 52 eW 36 med 27 b-r 30 eW 44 em 21 DQ 32
Mia Mil NYK Orl Phl Tor Was
DQ 45 em 56 vz 56 b-r 50 b-r 57 dt 42 nc 34
tz 44 eW 53 med 51 med 41 DQ 54 Cr 42 DQ 34
nc 43 vz 52 b-r 48 eW 40 vz 52 DQ 42 eW 33
b-r 43 DQ 51 nc 48 DQ 40 nc 51 vz 41 vz 33
vz 43 dt 50 tz 47 em 37 med 50 nc 41 Cr 31
dt 42 med 49 dt 47 tz 37 tz 48 eW 40 tz 28
Cr 42 b-r 48 Cr 46 dt 34 em 48 b-r 40 dt 28
eW 42 tz 48 DQ 45 Cr 33 dt 46 tz 40 med 28
em 41 nc 47 em 44 nc 33 Cr 44 em 38 b-r 25
med 41 Cr 47 eW 42 vz 33 eW 38 med 38 em 20
Dal Den GSW Hou LAC LAL Mem Min
dt 44 em 60 em 52 b-r 46 DQ 45 DQ 52 dt 47 b-r 56
b-r 44 med 54 nc 50 med 39 eW 44 eW 45 tz 46 em 53
nc 43 Cr 53 dt 48 eW 36 med 44 tz 44 Cr 45 med 48
DQ 42 tz 51 vz 47 dt 34 Cr 43 med 43 eW 45 Cr 48
tz 41 vz 49 tz 46 Cr 32 vz 43 em 43 DQ 45 dt 47
med 41 b-r 49 Cr 46 tz 31 dt 42 nc 42 em 44 nc 47
eW 40 DQ 48 med 45 vz 31 tz 41 dt 41 med 44 vz 46
vz 40 dt 48 b-r 44 nc 31 b-r 41 Cr 40 nc 43 tz 46
em 39 nc 48 eW 41 em 29 nc 41 b-r 39 vz 43 DQ 41
Cr 39 eW 45 DQ 37 DQ 25 em 40 vz 39 b-r 24 eW 39
NOP OKC Phx Por Sac SAS Uta
DQ 48 b-r 53 dt 49 eW 39 em 49 em 36 DQ 41
em 48 med 48 DQ 48 nc 33 Cr 47 eW 35 Cr 40
Cr 46 tz 44 tz 48 dt 32 med 45 nc 30 eW 39
eW 45 eW 44 med 48 tz 31 vz 43 dt 28 vz 39
vz 45 dt 41 vz 47 Cr 29 b-r 43 tz 28 nc 38
tz 45 em 41 Cr 46 DQ 29 nc 41 DQ 27 dt 37
dt 44 Cr 40 eW 46 vz 28 eW 41 Cr 27 tz 37
med 43 vz 37 nc 45 em 28 tz 41 med 24 med 34
nc 43 DQ 35 em 45 b-r 26 DQ 39 vz 24 em 32
b-r 42 nc 33 b-r 44 med 21 dt 37 b-r 22 b-r 28
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:43 pm
by mediocre
I don't think this is the right thread, but I had a few data questions:
1) What is the best public source of raw play-by-play data?
2a) Is there any public play-by-play source that also has shot location and/or closest defender data?
2b) Or is there a public play-by-play source that has expected eFG%?
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:19 pm
by Mike G
I don't know any of these answers, but:
pbp is a well known abbreviation, saving many hyphens.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:23 pm
by Mike G
mediocre's lead over the #2 (trzu) hit 1.11 on Nov. 20; dipped to .23 in the next 2 days; and has bobbed around in the .50-.80 range since.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.50 5.9 .68 Crow 5.80 7.6 .45
avgA 5.13 7.0 .53 EBPI 5.83 7.3 .50
trzu 5.14 6.9 .55 ncs. 5.84 8.1 .38
dtka 5.47 7.3 .50 IanL 6.08 7.2 .55
vegas 5.50 7.1 .52 emin 6.08 7.8 .49
vzro 5.50 7.6 .47 LEBR 6.15 7.8 .42
ChKl 5.53 7.1 .53 23re 6.28 8.2 .37
DRKO 5.66 7.3 .50 DQin 6.86 8.9 .31
KPel 5.68 7.7 .44 eWin 7.08 8.8 .27
EExp 5.72 7.1 .53 NuFi 7.32 9.8 .26
UPDATE Dec.7 -- the field averages .17 worse than yesterday.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.57 5.9 .68 KPel 5.97 7.8 .44
trzu 5.41 7.0 .55 ncs. 6.04 8.1 .39
avgA 5.42 7.1 .53 Crow 6.11 7.7 .45
vegas 5.51 7.1 .53 IanL 6.13 7.2 .55
dtka 5.61 7.3 .51 emin 6.35 7.9 .48
EExp 5.68 7.2 .54 LEBR 6.46 7.9 .43
ChKl 5.71 7.2 .53 23re 6.53 8.3 .37
vzro 5.75 7.7 .47 DQin 6.95 9.0 .31
EBPI 5.93 7.3 .51 eWin 7.21 8.9 .26
DRKO 5.95 7.3 .50 NuFi 7.25 9.7 .28
The separation of #1 and #2 is greater than from #2 to #14 !
UPDATE Dec.8 -- Even with medi in our midst, the self-submitted now avg .18 worse than the outsiders.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.71 6.0 .67 vzro 6.07 7.9 .45
trzu 5.53 7.1 .53 KPel 6.14 7.9 .42
vegas 5.58 7.2 .52 ncs. 6.17 8.2 .37
ChKl 5.61 7.1 .54 Crow 6.34 7.9 .42
EExp 5.65 7.2 .53 emin 6.53 8.1 .46
avgA 5.65 7.3 .51 23re 6.58 8.4 .36
dtka 5.91 7.4 .49 LEBR 6.62 8.0 .41
EBPI 5.93 7.3 .50 DQin 6.99 9.1 .30
DRKO 5.96 7.4 .49 eWin 7.28 9.0 .25
IanL 6.05 7.2 .55 NuFi 7.33 9.8 .27
UPDATE Dec.9 -- The whole field averages .40 worse than yesterday and worst of the season.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 5.02 6.4 .65 KPel 6.48 8.4 .40
EExp 5.87 7.7 .50 vzro 6.50 8.4 .42
ChKl 5.87 7.6 .52 ncs. 6.62 8.7 .35
vegas 5.91 7.7 .50 Crow 6.72 8.4 .40
trzu 6.08 7.7 .50 emin 6.79 8.5 .44
avgA 6.13 7.8 .48 23re 6.90 8.9 .34
IanL 6.27 7.6 .53 LEBR 7.04 8.5 .38
dtka 6.37 8.0 .46 DQin 7.47 9.6 .28
EBPI 6.39 7.9 .48 eWin 7.73 9.5 .23
DRKO 6.46 8.0 .46 NuFi 7.77 10.3 .25
UPDATE Dec.12 -- more mayhem
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
medi 4.95 6.5 .66 vzro 6.62 8.6 .42
EExp 5.90 7.7 .52 KPel 6.70 8.7 .39
ChKl 5.91 7.6 .54 DRKO 6.74 8.2 .45
vegas 5.96 7.8 .51 Crow 6.75 8.6 .40
IanL 6.14 7.6 .55 ncs. 6.83 9.0 .35
trzu 6.23 7.8 .50 23re 7.13 9.1 .34
avgA 6.26 8.0 .49 LEBR 7.26 8.7 .39
dtka 6.58 8.2 .45 DQin 7.68 9.7 .29
EBPI 6.60 8.1 .47 eWin 7.87 9.7 .24
emin 6.62 8.5 .46 NuFi 7.89 10.4 .25
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2023 12:58 pm
by Mike G
Update on how teams are looking compared to how we expected them to.
Ranked by difference between our (APBR) guess avg and the current b-r.com projection.
Code: Select all
over tm AvgA b-r over tm AvgA b-r
15.8 Hou 31.9 47.7 -18.8 Mem 44.7 25.9
14.4 Orl 36.3 50.7 -13.3 Uta 37.4 24.1
13.8 OKC 40.3 54.1 -8.5 Was 29.8 21.3
11.6 Ind 35.0 46.6 -8.3 SAS 28.7 20.4
8.8 Phl 47.9 56.7 -7.5 Det 26.1 18.6
8.3 Min 46.0 54.3 -5.1 Cle 49.3 44.2
6.1 Brk 39.9 46.0 -4.9 Chi 37.7 32.8
5.6 Dal 41.0 46.6 -4.9 Phx 46.9 42.0
3.6 LAC 42.6 46.2 -4.8 Cha 32.3 27.5
2.9 Bos 56.5 59.4 -3.8 Por 30.1 26.3
1.7 LAL 43.2 44.9 -3.4 Tor 40.4 37.0
1.1 Sac 42.5 43.6 -2.9 GSW 45.8 42.9
0.4 Mia 42.4 42.8 -2.5 NOP 45.2 42.7
. -2.0 Atl 42.0 40.0
. -1.8 Mil 50.3 48.5
. -0.8 Den 50.7 49.9
. -0.8 NYK 47.2 46.4
When any of the top 10 overachievers wins a game, everyone's error is dinged.
Same for the bottom 10 losing; or (Chi, Was, Por) only one of us may be happy.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2023 3:26 pm
by Crow
Pistons, Wizards and Spurs not only very bad but 3 of 5 worst versus are expectations.
Cavs with major under-performance, need review. I'll look for it, maybe do it.
Haven't followed Nets over-performance.
Re: 2023-24 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:38 pm
by Mike G
After 19 games, the Nets looked like an all-improved team.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.58 Lonnie Walker .626 23.8 4.3 2.2 1.37 LAL .564 16.3 3.0 1.4 .63
.53 Cam Thomas .555 26.3 4.3 2.1 1.70 .556 20.7 3.5 2.4 .95
.42 Mikal Bridges .580 22.1 6.3 3.3 1.49 .579 19.5 4.5 2.8 1.22
.33 Dorian F-Smith .617 12.0 6.2 1.4 .53 .525 8.6 5.8 1.5 .29
.20 Royce O'Neale .549 8.7 6.4 3.4 .52 .535 9.0 5.7 3.5 .38
.15 Tr. Watford .587 15.7 9.0 3.6 1.09 Por .615 12.7 7.4 3.2 .75
.12 Nic Claxton .668 17.3 11.3 1.6 1.75 .677 16.2 11.1 1.9 1.58
.12 Dennis Smith .477 10.2 5.9 5.7 .74 Cha .469 9.6 4.1 5.2 .51
.06 Day'R Sharpe .582 13.5 13.9 1.4 1.23 .572 13.4 12.4 1.9 1.18
.00 Ben Simmons .513 6.3 12.0 6.2 .77 .552 8.8 8.5 6.8 .80
eW+ per36 rates Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.00 S Dinwiddie .556 15.4 4.5 6.0 1.01 .567 16.8 3.7 5.8 1.05
-.08 Cam Johnson .576 17.2 7.1 3.0 1.17 .609 19.2 5.6 1.9 1.33
These guys are all going 14+ mpg. I don't know who they lost, and rookies aren't doing much.
Basically from about 4 avg-or-better players to about 8 ?
Cavs' "improved" also data from a week ago:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.43 Max Strus .573 13.9 5.6 3.4 .83 Mia .553 13.4 4.4 2.4 .57
.12 Evan Mobley .596 16.9 11.5 2.6 1.51 .581 17.1 10.2 2.6 1.46
.10 Caris LeVert .500 15.0 4.3 3.4 .84 .539 13.8 4.9 3.9 .78
.04 Isaac Okoro .573 10.3 5.3 2.1 .50 .604 10.9 4.3 1.6 .45
-.04 Do. Mitchell .564 26.1 5.4 4.3 2.04 .606 29.7 4.6 3.8 2.12
-.07 Damian Jones .500 5.1 6.6 1.6 -.11 Uta .736 10.9 8.8 .9 .60
-.08 Georges Niang .534 11.6 6.2 1.5 .48 Phl .607 14.6 4.6 1.5 .60
-.09 Jarrett Allen .702 18.6 9.8 2.3 1.44 .658 17.3 11.7 1.6 1.58
-.14 Dean Wade .476 4.3 7.1 1.2 .06 .546 7.8 6.4 1.3 .36
-.18 Sam Merrill .480 9.0 2.7 2.2 .05 .543 14.0 5.7 2.5 1.24
-.55 Da. Garland .555 19.5 2.9 5.2 .89 .578 22.2 2.9 6.8 1.45
Garland has def. picked up recently; Strus appears to have cooled.