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Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2025 2:54 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:50 am
Wizards have won 6% of games so far. BRef is projecting they win 24% of the remainder.
How strong a candidate for worst record in league history?
Of their top 11 players (as of a few days ago), 2 show major improvements: George and Sarr.
Another 3 are pretty stable, and 6 have experienced precipitous declines.
This 3:1 bad:good ratio might be expected to even out somewhat over time.
Their current SRS of -14.7 suggests a win% of about .100, so they should have won 1.6 games out of 16.
And this projects to 8 expected wins on the season, if nobody else steps up.
Thru 13 games, their net player improvement from last year summed to -.38, or about .03 per game.
Add that to their remaining 66 games, and expect another 2 wins. That's if everyone returns to last year's proficiencies.
If it's only the decliners recovering (while current improvers continue), expect 6 more wins, for a total of 14.
They've had the 2nd toughest schedule in the East, and their remaining SOS is about 1 ppg easier. Another couple of W there?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2025 1:16 am
by Crow
Wizards up 22 at half tonight.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2025 1:14 pm
by Mike G
EExp take a dive -- error up .22 while avgA sheds .19 and Darko .32
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
DRKO 6.34 8.41 .49 eWin 7.16 9.08 .41
vegas 6.60 8.16 .55 dtka 7.28 9.02 .42
bpmW 6.75 8.43 .49 WShr 7.45 9.42 .38
avgA 6.76 8.81 .44 Crow 7.49 9.85 .37
knar 6.82 8.50 .47 KPel 7.67 9.85 .37
Mgoo 6.92 8.87 .44 medi 7.72 9.73 .40
perW 7.00 9.83 .33 25pr 8.22 9.87 .33
EExp 7.05 8.53 .47 DQin 8.80 11.24 .28
Walr 7.10 8.55 .47
Just 3 games last night. Blowouts all : Was>>Atl and Orl>>Phl helped most or all of us; LAL>>LAC not so much.
UPDATE Nov. 29 -- new leader, and on all fronts
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.66 8.24 .56 eWin 7.51 9.24 .42
DRKO 6.69 8.67 .49 dtka 7.60 9.23 .42
bpmW 7.07 8.64 .49 WShr 7.77 9.58 .39
knar 7.16 8.74 .48 KPel 7.79 9.92 .38
avgA 7.17 8.98 .45 Crow 7.82 10.08 .36
Mgoo 7.23 9.04 .45 medi 7.88 9.86 .41
EExp 7.27 8.71 .48 25pr 8.62 10.07 .33
Walr 7.32 8.69 .48 DQin 8.86 11.27 .29
perW 7.40 9.94 .35
UPDATE to end the month
Code: Select all
W Atl W Bos W Brk W Cha W Chi W Cle W Det W Ind
46 DQ 50 DQ 33 WS 36 Wa 41 Cr 58 md 53 b-r 47 DQ
46 dt 48 WS 31 kn 34 kn 38 WS 57 DO 46 Cr 46 KP
45 md 46 DO 28 bW 32 eW 38 KP 56 dt 46 md 43 WS
45 b-r 46 b-r 28 DO 31 DO 37 b-r 55 DQ 45 eW 41 Cr
44 kn 46 Cr 27 pW 31 pW 36 kn 54 WS 44 DO 41 pW
44 KP 46 KP 27 eW 31 bW 36 md 53 Wa 44 WS 40 md
44 pW 43 kn 26 DQ 31 Cr 35 DQ 53 bW 43 bW 39 Wa
44 bW 42 dt 26 Wa 31 b-r 35 bW 52 Cr 43 Wa 36 bW
43 eW 42 bW 25 dt 30 dt 35 DO 51 kn 43 KP 36 DO
43 DO 42 md 24 b-r 29 KP 34 dt 50 KP 42 pW 36 dt
42 WS 41 Wa 22 Cr 27 WS 34 pW 50 pW 41 kn 36 eW
42 Wa 39 pW 19 md 26 md 33 Wa 50 eW 41 dt 33 kn
39 Cr 37 eW 18 KP 23 DQ 32 eW 48 b-r 35 DQ 24 b-r
^ Atl ^ Bos ^ Brk ^ Cha ^ Chi ^ Cle ^ Det ^ Ind
W Mia W Mil W NYK W Orl W Phl W Tor W Was
53 b-r 45 KP 52 Wa 55 eW 47 md 50 b-r 25 DO
41 eW 44 Cr 52 b-r 52 Cr 43 pW 41 eW 24 Wa
41 WS 43 Wa 51 DO 52 b-r 42 b-r 41 KP 23 dt
40 KP 42 eW 50 pW 51 kn 38 KP 40 DO 23 kn
40 pW 42 dt 49 md 50 DO 38 eW 39 kn 22 eW
40 bW 42 DO 49 dt 50 md 38 Cr 38 pW 21 WS
38 Wa 42 md 48 kn 50 KP 37 dt 38 bW 21 pW
38 kn 40 DQ 48 Cr 49 Wa 37 DO 38 Wa 21 Cr
36 DQ 39 kn 48 WS 48 pW 35 bW 37 dt 19 bW
36 dt 38 pW 47 KP 48 bW 34 Wa 35 Cr 18 md
34 DO 38 bW 47 eW 46 dt 34 kn 32 WS 17 DQ
33 md 38 WS 47 bW 43 WS 33 DQ 32 md 17 b-r
29 Cr 36 b-r 43 DQ 42 DQ 32 WS 28 DQ 14 KP
^ Mia ^ Mil ^ NYK ^ Orl ^ Phl ^ Tor ^ Was
W Dal W Den W GSW W Hou W LAC W LAL W Mem W Min
54 pW 55 b-r 56 KP 59 b-r 53 dt 50 b-r 48 DQ 52 md
51 eW 55 pW 51 DQ 58 DQ 51 Cr 47 pW 47 WS 49 WS
50 DQ 54 md 51 Cr 53 Cr 51 kn 47 dt 46 md 48 DQ
46 Cr 52 KP 50 md 52 DO 50 DQ 47 eW 45 KP 48 Cr
45 bW 52 DO 50 dt 51 md 50 eW 46 bW 43 Wa 48 dt
44 DO 52 DQ 49 bW 50 kn 50 KP 46 KP 43 dt 47 bW
44 KP 52 Cr 48 kn 50 bW 50 DO 44 WS 43 bW 47 kn
44 WS 51 bW 47 WS 50 Wa 49 pW 44 Wa 42 eW 46 eW
43 kn 50 WS 47 Wa 49 dt 49 bW 43 md 41 pW 46 Wa
43 md 50 Wa 46 eW 47 WS 47 WS 42 Cr 41 kn 46 b-r
42 dt 48 dt 44 DO 47 KP 46 md 41 DQ 39 Cr 45 DO
39 Wa 47 eW 43 b-r 46 eW 46 Wa 41 kn 38 DO 44 KP
27 b-r 45 kn 42 pW 46 pW 30 b-r 39 DO 36 b-r 41 pW
^ Dal ^ Den ^ GSW ^ Hou ^ LAC ^ LAL ^ Mem ^ Min
W NOP W OKC W Phx W Por W Sac W SAS W Uta
36 kn 69 DQ 45 b-r 43 md 44 KP 52 b-r 29 b-r
35 pW 67 Wa 39 DQ 40 b-r 42 pW 50 pW 28 Wa
34 Wa 65 bW 37 WS 39 DQ 40 eW 45 eW 28 DO
34 Cr 65 WS 37 kn 38 WS 40 WS 45 DO 26 kn
33 bW 64 Cr 36 dt 38 bW 39 bW 43 kn 26 dt
33 DQ 64 md 35 KP 37 Wa 38 kn 42 Cr 25 eW
33 dt 64 b-r 35 bW 36 DO 37 dt 42 Wa 25 WS
33 KP 63 kn 33 eW 36 kn 36 Cr 42 bW 24 bW
33 md 61 dt 33 DO 36 Cr 36 Wa 40 KP 24 md
32 eW 60 eW 32 pW 36 dt 35 DQ 40 DQ 23 pW
32 DO 60 DO 32 Cr 36 KP 35 DO 40 dt 21 DQ
29 WS 59 KP 32 Wa 32 eW 34 md 40 md 20 KP
22 b-r 58 pW 27 md 30 pW 26 b-r 38 WS 19 Cr
^ NOP ^ OKC ^ Phx ^ Por ^ Sac ^ SAS ^ Uta
Last time we saw this chart, just 7 teams were inside the upper and lower bounds of our guesses.
Now there are 13 in contention, and at least one more (Den) on the edge.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2025 5:14 pm
by Crow
I went very low on Heat based on terrible last playoffs and pre-season, some key player trends and trade speculation.
I will be off substantially but the final amount might not as bad as currently projected.
Spo was motivated enough to blow up the offense. I did not see that coming. Does that keep working as well? Time will tell. Herro off to a strong return but long-term questions will remain for me until there is a bigger sample.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2025 3:48 pm
by Mike G
Vegas now leads at any exponent <4.8
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.42 7.94 .59 eWin 7.40 9.14 .44
DRKO 6.66 8.55 .51 dtka 7.40 9.08 .45
bpmW 6.85 8.47 .52 perW 7.42 9.85 .37
knar 6.98 8.68 .50 Crow 7.56 9.82 .40
avgA 7.03 8.79 .48 WShr 7.72 9.37 .42
Mgoo 7.05 8.89 .47 medi 7.73 9.54 .44
Walr 7.14 8.41 .53 KPel 7.86 9.78 .40
EExp 7.21 8.53 .51 25pr 8.60 9.88 .36
. DQin 8.71 11.04 .32
Vegas, or EBET, currently has the worst (lowest) guess on Chi and Uta, but with the Bulls fading fast.
Meanwhile best guess (or tied) on NY, Det, LAL (all highest); also Phl and Orl.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 4:31 pm
by Crow
BPM among the leaders, by this target so far.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 5:00 pm
by Crow
95% win Thunder expected to regress to about 70% for remaining schedule by BRef.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 8:24 pm
by Mike G
OKC remaining schedule expects to be tougher than to-date by 4.34 points per opponent.
If they aren't especially motivated to win every game down the stretch, .700 might be pretty close. Or if injury should strike.
vegas is leading by this much:
Code: Select all
top: 6.39 8.10 .56
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas .00 .00 .00 dtka .96 .96 .13
DRKO .24 .40 .07 eWin .98 .95 .13
bpmW .42 .36 .06 perW 1.11 1.72 .22
knar .55 .46 .08 WShr 1.18 1.16 .15
avgA .59 .69 .10 Crow 1.21 1.82 .19
Mgoo .63 .78 .11 medi 1.37 1.52 .14
Walr .73 .36 .07 KPel 1.49 1.80 .19
EExp .73 .48 .08 25pr 2.06 1.71 .21
. DQin 2.25 2.93 .26
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2025 10:49 pm
by Crow
On Nov. 9, BRef projected Thunder to win 62% of remaining games. Now 70%. Will likely actually be 80+%. Maybe that projection gets there in a month or two.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2025 1:52 pm
by Mike G
Walrus surges and along with DARKO, bpmW, and DQuinn, having their lowest errors so far.*
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.47 8.00 .57 eWin 7.31 8.88 .45
DRKO 6.52 8.28 .52 perW 7.39 9.64 .37
bpmW 6.71 8.29 .52 dtka 7.45 8.92 .44
Walr 6.97 8.34 .51 WShr 7.48 9.15 .42
avgA 6.97 8.62 .48 Crow 7.75 9.71 .39
Mgoo 7.01 8.71 .47 medi 7.79 9.53 .43
knar 7.04 8.37 .51 KPel 8.02 9.82 .38
EExp 7.21 8.49 .49 25pr 8.36 9.71 .36
. DQin 8.49 10.79 .33
* - "so far" = since mid Nov. at least
UPDATE Dec. 5 -- avg errors up .17. Largest to date for EExp, PER, dtka, and KPel
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.57 8.10 .57 eWin 7.54 9.01 .45
DRKO 6.75 8.40 .52 perW 7.56 9.74 .37
bpmW 6.96 8.40 .52 dtka 7.62 9.02 .45
Mgoo 7.17 8.83 .47 WShr 7.71 9.24 .42
Walr 7.20 8.47 .51 Crow 7.89 9.80 .39
avgA 7.21 8.71 .48 medi 7.90 9.55 .44
knar 7.29 8.52 .50 KPel 8.08 9.87 .38
EExp 7.34 8.59 .50 25pr 8.48 9.75 .37
. DQin 8.60 10.82 .33
The West>East imbalance is recently kicking in; just two days ago, the West had caught the East in the b-r.com projections; now they are up by 42-40 on avg.
(Last night, Phl over a depleted GSW by 1. Versus 7 wins by West/East, just one at home, in 2 days.)
All entries favored the West by at least this much -- least being DARKO at 42-40 -- and on up to DQuinn at nearly 45-37.
Top-bottom distance is smallest since season low on Nov. 26
UPDATE Dec. 6 -- best numbers to date for Walr; worst for medi and KPel
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.52 7.93 .59 perW 7.39 9.73 .38
DRKO 6.67 8.29 .54 dtka 7.55 9.00 .46
bpmW 6.87 8.37 .53 WShr 7.76 9.14 .44
Walr 6.95 8.32 .54 Crow 7.77 9.66 .41
Mgoo 6.99 8.83 .48 medi 7.97 9.35 .46
EExp 7.13 8.47 .52 KPel 8.19 9.85 .39
avgA 7.15 8.64 .50 25pr 8.42 9.64 .39
knar 7.21 8.50 .52 DQin 8.64 10.72 .35
eWin 7.28 9.04 .45
Vegas has now matched DARKO's 8-day stretch at #1
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Dec 07, 2025 3:51 am
by Crow
After going 13W-6L, Heat have followed up with 1W-4L. They have 5 of next 6 on road and simultaneously 5 of 6 against .500+ teams.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Dec 07, 2025 3:41 pm
by Mike G
No change in the standings, but everyone improves by .10 to .23
The top 5 plus eWin and DQin with season low errors.
Here's the over-under ranking by teams:
Code: Select all
over west avgA proj. over east avgA proj
11.4 Phx 33.9 45.2 12.3 Mia 37.3 49.6
8.5 Hou 49.7 58.2 10.6 Det 42.8 53.4
7.8 SAS 42.5 50.3 9.0 Tor 36.8 45.8
5.6 Uta 24.0 29.6 8.4 Bos 43.1 51.5
4.2 LAL 44.0 48.1 6.3 NYK 48.3 54.6
3.7 Por 36.1 39.8 6.3 Phl 37.2 43.5
2.9 Den 50.6 53.5 3.3 Orl 48.9 52.2
2.6 OKC 62.7 65.3 0.4 Brk 25.7 26.1
0.9 Min 46.7 47.6 0.2 Cha 30.2 30.4
-5.7 GSW 48.3 42.5 -0.7 Atl 43.4 42.7
-6.0 Mem 42.8 36.8 -2.5 Chi 35.4 32.9
-11.5 Sac 38.2 26.6 -4.9 Was 20.5 15.6
-12.7 NOP 32.8 20.1 -6.3 Cle 53.0 46.7
-13.1 Dal 45.6 32.5 -7.1 Mil 41.2 34.1
-19.0 LAC 49.3 30.3 -15.4 Ind 39.3 23.9
Clipps and Bucks in free fall.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Dec 07, 2025 5:21 pm
by Crow
73% of teams vary by more than 3 wins from APBR average projection.
53% by more than 6.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2025 1:35 pm
by Mike G
Again no change in the order, but the total avg error is lowest yet.
The same 7 as yesterday, plus WShr, again with their smallest errors.
Vegas just jumped out to the biggest 1-2 lead since DARKO a month ago.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 . avg err rmse r^2
vegas 6.09 7.62 .62 perW 7.18 9.32 .42
DRKO 6.41 8.06 .56 dtka 7.25 8.66 .49
bpmW 6.56 7.96 .57 WShr 7.43 8.69 .49
Walr 6.59 8.02 .57 Crow 7.56 9.35 .44
Mgoo 6.80 8.43 .52 medi 7.80 9.08 .49
avgA 6.84 8.26 .54 KPel 7.87 9.43 .43
EExp 6.89 8.21 .54 25pr 8.04 9.29 .42
knar 6.90 8.20 .55 DQin 8.27 10.32 .38
eWin 6.97 8.65 .49
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Dec 09, 2025 12:30 am
by kmedved
Mike G wrote: ↑Wed Oct 22, 2025 9:22 pm
Feel free to check your numbers and report any discrepancies.
The bottom row is
average deviation from 41, and we are in order of boldest to most timid.
Code: Select all
tm DQin medi EBET Crow KPel DRKO EExp Mgoo dtka eWin bpmW WShr perW Walr
Atl 46 45.4 46.5 39 44.3 42.5 48.0 42 46 43.1 43.5 42.2 43.8 42.1
Bos 50 41.5 40.5 46 45.6 46.2 40.1 39 42 37.4 41.8 47.7 38.7 40.9
Brk 26 18.5 20.5 22 17.6 27.5 24.7 25 25 26.8 28.1 33.4 27.1 25.8
Cha 23 26.1 26.5 31 28.5 31.4 29.6 31 30 32.0 31.0 27.5 31.0 36.2
Chi 35 36.1 31.5 41 38.0 34.6 32.7 34 34 32.0 34.8 38.2 33.6 32.6
Cle 55 57.7 56.5 52 50.1 56.9 54.9 52 56 49.6 52.7 54.0 49.7 52.9
Dal 50 42.7 40.5 46 43.6 44.2 41.9 48 42 50.8 45.0 43.6 53.7 39.4
Den 52 53.9 53.5 52 52.2 52.1 50.3 50 48 47.0 50.8 50.2 54.8 50.1
Det 35 45.6 45.5 46 42.6 44.3 43.6 45 41 44.7 42.8 43.8 42.1 42.8
GSW 51 50.3 46.5 51 56.1 44.1 45.5 46 50 46.1 48.8 47.5 42.1 46.9
tm DQin medi EBET Crow KPel DRKO EExp Mgoo dtka eWin bpmW WShr perW Walr
Hou 58 51.1 53.5 53 46.9 52.2 50.1 47 49 46.0 50.3 47.4 45.8 49.5
Ind 47 39.9 38.5 41 45.9 36.2 38.2 38 36 35.9 36.5 42.7 40.8 38.9
LAC 50 46.3 47.5 51 49.7 49.7 48.3 50 53 49.7 48.8 47.2 48.8 46.1
LAL 41 42.5 48.5 42 45.8 38.9 47.6 45 47 46.8 46.0 44.2 47.3 44.2
Mem 48 46.1 40.5 39 44.6 38.2 42.3 42 43 42.0 42.7 46.7 40.7 43.1
Mia 36 33.2 38.5 29 40.3 33.8 38.2 40 36 41.3 39.5 40.8 40.0 37.8
Mil 40 41.5 42.5 44 44.5 41.8 43.8 43 42 42.0 38.4 37.9 38.5 43.4
Min 48 51.8 49.5 48 43.7 44.8 46.8 47 48 46.0 47.2 48.8 41.3 45.6
NOP 33 32.5 30.5 34 32.6 31.8 32.9 31 33 32.1 33.1 28.5 34.5 34.1
NYK 43 49.4 53.5 48 47.2 50.5 50.8 48 49 46.8 46.7 47.8 50.5 52.4
tm DQin medi EBET Crow KPel DRKO EExp Mgoo dtka eWin bpmW WShr perW Walr
OKC 69 63.7 62.5 64 59.2 60.0 57.8 62 61 60.3 64.8 64.5 57.7 66.8
Orl 42 49.9 51.5 52 49.9 50.5 47.9 52 46 55.2 47.7 42.9 48.3 48.9
Phl 33 47.4 42.5 38 38.4 36.5 45.9 37 37 38.2 35.3 31.7 42.5 34.2
Phx 39 27.3 31.5 32 34.7 32.6 31.8 33 36 33.5 34.6 37.0 32.2 31.7
Por 39 43.4 33.5 36 35.8 36.3 33.9 33 36 31.5 37.5 37.7 29.9 37.1
Sac 35 33.7 34.5 36 43.5 34.5 35.1 41 37 40.3 39.4 39.7 42.4 35.5
SAS 40 39.6 44.5 42 40.1 44.7 41.8 46 40 45.0 41.6 38.5 49.7 41.7
Tor 28 31.5 38.5 35 40.7 40.2 38.2 40 37 40.8 37.9 32.2 38.3 37.7
Uta 21 23.7 18.5 19 20.2 27.9 23.6 23 26 25.4 23.8 24.5 23.0 28.0
Was 17 17.7 20.5 21 14.2 25.0 23.8 20 23 21.6 18.8 21.3 21.1 23.7
tm DQin medi EBET Crow KPel DRKO EExp Mgoo dtka eWin bpmW WShr perW Walr
tot 1230 1230 1229 1230 1237 1230 1230 1230 1229 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230
avdev 9.00 8.81 8.67 8.13 7.57 7.36 7.35 7.27 7.17 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.76
EDIT 10-22 at 7.35 pm to update DRKO column (see kmedved, next post).
It looks like this accidentally flipped the Charlotte and Chicago numbers for the Walrus Projections (they had Chicago at 36.17 and Charlotte at 32.55).