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Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:48 pm
by Crow
Current Kings starters are horrible together. Hield's overall player pairs with 2 starters are bad, 1 horrible, 1 barely negative.

It will change. And should.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:43 am
by Crow
Morant - Clarke -Valanciunis is the 7th best of the 100 most used trios for Griz but is 79th in usage at less than 2 minutes per game for season because...

Ask them.

I'd use / test it a lot more.

Clarke in 4 of the other strong 6. Morant in just one other top but very lightly used trio (with Jackson and Melton). Probably could combine those trios, entirely or with one change. Test all those things. Have they tried all 5 together? Of course not. Not a single second. 4 of the 5? A couple dink lineups of 5 minutes and less FOR SEASON.

They either have an explanation for not testing these lineups that I'd need to hear (and doubt would sway me) or they don't have an explanation or maybe don't even know they are not doing this. When coaches go from one lineup to the next and have strong assumptions / patterns that they don't examine and don't look enough at the big picture, it is easy for them to miss things, perhaps some important options.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:22 am
by Crow
Half the teams have used a lineup 250 plus minutes. That is equivalent to about 6 minutes per game for season. 80% got positive results. Only case of more than mild negative is with the Cavs.

Jazz have 2 such lineups over plus 10 / 100 possessions. Bucks, Nuggets and Heat also have one. Rockets fairly close. Everyone else, no. Lower the criteria to 200 minutes and the Raptors sneak in. Sixers get close. Lakers meet time criteria but with an only slightly positive lineup. Clippers don't meet criteria, though they do have a good lineup at 175 minutes (or about 4 minutes per game).

50-75% game usage is pretty common. I assume mainly related to availability. 10-12 minutes of use in games used is typical. A few used 15 minutes / gm per game used. One at about 20 min. 15-20 minute use probably should be more common, though full rotation must be considered to determine optimal strategy.

20% of teams don't have a lineup used over 150 minutes. Celtics are the only such team with a winning record. Not a good group to be in. A couple real close to 150 min. but that is low minute for biggest minute lineups.

For lineups over 100 minutes about 70% are positive. And should generally be played more. If not now, then in the playoffs. 6 pretty bad performers, including ones by Nuggets and Raptors. Both appear to be injury responses to some degree but probably should be avoided with or without the absences.

1.7 per team. Raptors and Pacers lead with 3. Almost 99.5% of all lineups used don't meet this modest use level and most are nowhere close to it. Or even a tenth of it (10 minutes for season). Game still run mostly on near dink, dink and sub-dink lineups. Imo it should be commonplace for teams to have 5 or more lineups over 100 minutes by this point in season. If you have strong opinions about what a good lineup is and act on that belief. The lineup chaos we see may either indicate lack of such conviction or execution or a lack of belief that quality of lineups varies / matters enough to call for more care in selection. Whatever the thinking or lack of thinking, it sure looks sub-optimal (or preposterous) to me.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:05 pm
by Crow
Spurs starting lineup has increased use in last 10 games by about 25-30% but it has gone from positive to -7 in this recent time frame. Meanwhile the super sub lineup with Walker has gone from neutral to strong +11. Alas, Pop still using it less than 3 minutes per game. Cuz...

Pop's 20 most used lineups for season: 8 positive, 12 negative. 10 and 10 in last 10 games. Mediocre.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:27 am
by Crow
Nets' 3 most used lineups (over 2 minutes per game) are all meh. Probably need to try a few of the best in the next tier (1 minute or less per game) way more and try to make something significant out of them. Or stay in Mehville.

Almost all the most used pairs are meh. The best is Irving - Dinwiddie at moderately good.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:19 pm
by Crow
Young - Teague -3 pts / 100 p in 60 minutes. Not thrilling but way better than the norm.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:34 am
by Crow
Wizards last season, 1 lineup used over 4 minutes per game and 6 of 7 most negative, modestly. Same this season but now 6 of 7 are bad to horrible.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2020 1:26 am
by Crow
Sixers with 1 lineup tested over 3 minutes per game for season. It is fine.

What else works? The evidence is thin, thinner than it should be. I'd want to know my next 5 lineups much better before playoffs.

Mike Scott works with most. I dunno if I'd change the starting lineup; but if I did. it would probably be to put him in over Horford. That would be the least drastic change.

Brown staying Milton tonight. They are winning but not because of him. 2-4 in previous recent starts.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:19 pm
by Crow
How much 2 true big lineups will Hawks play? Either they do that and that better than what they were doing or they overbought on bigs. Only 6 of their 20 most used lineups this season so far were 2 true bigs imo.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:33 pm
by Crow
All of Anfernee Simmons' player pairs with main rotation are moderately negative or worse. Some 5 man lineups are positive but not in more than dink minutes for season.

So nothing positive proven. Beware.

500th on LA-RAPM. Negative both ways. RPM estimates him at 3rd worst impact for SGs.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:16 pm
by Crow
Every coach plays more lineups than "needed". Most are weak on dink lineups. Many have glaring results in their 5 - 10 most used. Few organizations seem to work / fight that hard to change these patterns.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:07 pm
by Crow
Only 6 of 20 most used Spurs lineups are more than marginally positive. Sliding down.

With all the chaotic mixing of players, 16 of 20 most used pairs are negative.

Is this the best that could have been gotten from this roster? I doubt it.

Shake things up or expect more of same or worse.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:56 am
by Crow
Coby White pairs are all negative- mild to terrible. What does work in moderate testing is a different 3 PG trio of Arcidiacono Dunn and White.

Maybe someone will look at what plays, passes and shots three PG lineups get compared to "normal".

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:57 am
by Crow
Clippers trade away part of only lineup over 2 minutes per game. What lineups will be emphasized in playoffs? I dunno. Do they? Will be interesting, likely decisive.

Re: 2019-20 lineup analysis

Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:08 am
by Crow
LaVine has bad pairs with multiple bench players. Starting lineup should been used 18 plus minutes per game instead of 6.