APBRmetrics

on Pritchard... and Simons:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1969563708377743802

0W-3L. Ranked in 20s on offensive and defensive efficiency and net rating.

Detailed review postponed til later.

A Simons is about the same on BpM as last season. But his raw team +/- is 12 pts worse than team average and 24 pts worse than his subs.

Jaylen Brown +/- numbers are almost as bad. Boucher's are somewhat worse.

The big minute lineup units look quite good but there must be significant trouble lower down.

And there is.

6 most used lineups average +24pts / 48 min. The remaining 66 lineups average -9.4.

"Flexibilty", "creativity", "warfare" deception is not working on average in the dink lineups and not close.

Modestly more pairs are negative than positive. Simons - Brown is -38pts / 48 min. at 15 minutes per game and the worst of non-trivial minute lineups.

Brown scores 32 but has team worst +/- total of -21. Magic score big from 3.

Celtics lineup analysis after earlier loss:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1985 ... 11745?s=20


Last night, the starters were bad and 2 of next biggest horrendous and overall 14 pf 21 lineups picked by Mazzulla negative or neutral.

Up to 146 different lineups after 10 games.
61% non-positive.

Jaylen Brown good boxscore stats tonight. But about -25 pt / 48 min.team +/- on court. Celtics without him about +75 / 48 min in remaining minutes.

Celtics go from least FT / FGA allowed last season to 3rd highest. 8th best at defensive rebounding to 24th. Shot defense still great. Opponent turnover rate jumps from 23rd to 9th.

Offensively, own turnover rate remains great. Own FT/ FGA remains dead last. Offensive rebounding got better. Shooting got a lot worse.

Overall 4 top 10 factors, 4 bottom 10 this season. Last season 5 top, 1 middle, 2 bottom.



Jaylen Brown -7 on / off so far for season. 4 main subs at SF all positive, from mild to wild.

20 most used pairs include 5 weak Simons' pairs and 4 for Hauser. One or both in all all the weak pairs except one.

J Brown essentially leads team on BPM (minus one tiny minute guy).

10th on raw team +/- on court and on / off.

Offense up a modest amount. Defensive Darko plunges to career low. Somehow incremental improvement on Darko. I am guessing overall Darko is a separate calculation and not the sum of o & d Darko.

5 year high on 3pt fg% at this point. Career highs on assists and turnovers per game. 1.33 A/TO.

A Simons should be tradeable though not hearing any chatter. BPM is close to y year liw but only -1.0. Assists way down. Nearly doubled his long 2 rate from last season, back to early career preference, but unfortunately he is currently terrible on them.

Brown better than I expected... on individual stats. Career best O-BPM but near career worst on D-BPM. (Only very modestly above neutral on D-BPm twice in 10 years.). 10th on team +/- on court, 11th on / off at almost -6. Leader? Complicated case. But the sum of everything is better than expected for team. Joe doing pretty well his way.

On the road for 6 of next 7 but pretty easy slate of opponents.

Celtics factors are 4 in top 10, 1 middle, 3 bottom 10, with both own efg% and opponent efg% in top 10. Not much change there. 4th best offensive efficiency, 15th on defense.


3rd in east. BRef gives as much chance to move to 1st or 2nd as fall to 4th or 5th. I doubt they move up, but it is possible.

3rd best chance at winning title at 5.9%? Assume that is without Tatum. What should it be if Tatum returns healthy?

1W-1L against Knicks, 1-2 against Pistons. 1-0 against Heat, 2-1 against Magic, 2-0 against Raptors. Should be expected to get to 2nd round at least. 2nd best SRS. With Tatum back, should they be expected to make finals? Finals? Untested yet against Thunder, 1 bad loss to Rockets.

What will they do before trade deadline? They probably should try something to improve FT frequency or defensive rebounding but those are probably design / system weaknesses.



30th on pace is something to consider. Is it an issue? 8 possession difference with Heat if they met in 1st round. Almost 4.5 less than Pistons, almost 3 less than Knicks. Would help to find offensive and defensive pace. Low on fast break points but even lower on what they give up. More study of matchup dynamics is warranted, if they are expected to have major chances.

There was a pace discussion here almost 10 years ago. https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?t=9139
Anybody have anything new on the topic.?

I'd think certain gamblers would make an intense study of pace and pace interactions. This is best resource I see so far: https://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/ssn ... &order=ASC

This fantasy site is paying attention to pace: https://fantasyteamadvice.com/dfs-nba-p ... vironments
Pace boost would be interesting to see more about.

Draftees Celtics could have had since 2019:

Alexander-Walker
Bitadze
Jerome
B Clarke
Claxton
Keldon Johnson
Gafford
K Porter

Maxey
Quickley
Bane

Bassey
Mamukelashvili
Aaron Wiggins

Camara
Jackson - Davis

Ajay Mitchell
Kolek
Post
C Spencer

Kalkbrenner
Penda
W Richard


Most or all teams passed frequently on better players, but this is their list of the bigger names.

Projecting Celtics with metrics:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2007 ... 49832?s=20

Celtics complete salary cap transformation. For now.

Add Vucavic, subtract others.

Tatum return?

Mazzulla 4th lowest active Coach on coaching RAPM. At least at last update. Doesn't seem "right".

Brown: https://x.com/sports_mediocre/status/20 ... 19628?s=20

Lots of Brown commentary on twitter recently. By me and others.