Unclear how long it will take but some expansion seems inevitable.
If they price expansion fee appropriately it doesn't have to dilute current team total earnings (in league + expansion fees invested somewhere) or dilute that much and it enhances liquidity.
Most expect 2 expansion teams. I'd support 6+, though maybe phased.
18 man rosters are kinda whack imo in several ways. Non-producing assets, frustration. At 36 teams and 15 man rosters there would be no leaguewide job loss and more players get decent minutes. Probably lower team level salaries as required spending would be divided 36 ways would be another incentive.
Too late to price it in to upcoming national media rights but could become a leading rationale for next deal if national audience grows.
Local network deal climate is unclear. Deserves more attention. But more is probably more if done well.
IF they did 6 new, other 4 could go several ways. Canada, Mexico, London, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong... or perhaps target the growing south. Tampa, Birmingham, Raleigh, Louisville and Nashville. Or possibly Kansas City.
Stern substantially went away from competition with other pro teams in multi-team cities but I don't think that is the right strategy for next phase or perhaps even for the last one.
Building the national audience is not a completed project or anything but priority #1.
League benefits when it activates cities and regions not currently represented.
Expansion
Re: Expansion
I kinda like seeing teams with several good players. Add 6 teams, and it's a lot more likely that superstars will be trying to get decent help from scrubs in the starting lineup.
Partly I feel sorry for LeBron, Durant, Luka, Jokic, etc, who don't have decent backups, much less 5 starting-caliber players on their team.
I don't think we need another round (or extended play-in) of playoffs nor a larger field of terrible teams. Nor expansion into towns that can't support a team, which then moves or folds. Not only is there finite playing talent; managerial and coaching ranks are also limited.
Quality over quantity. Please.
Partly I feel sorry for LeBron, Durant, Luka, Jokic, etc, who don't have decent backups, much less 5 starting-caliber players on their team.
I don't think we need another round (or extended play-in) of playoffs nor a larger field of terrible teams. Nor expansion into towns that can't support a team, which then moves or folds. Not only is there finite playing talent; managerial and coaching ranks are also limited.
Quality over quantity. Please.
Re: Expansion
League with 6 more teams would still see almost all contenders with 2+ stars. Maybe fewer with 3+, but we are probably headed that way regardless.
6 more teams likely would heavily redistribute 16th to 18th men to other teams and nearly same irrelevance. Some 4th, 8th, 12th men and such might move to weaker teams but some contending teams and / or players will seek and perhaps sacrifice to prevent it. Exact impact is unknown and should be consider by teams and league office before proceeding but this is the necessary kickoff of the initial idea necessary before consideration.
If teams only use 8-9 more than minimally in playoffs, they won't miss the 11-18th men hardly at all and some of the 10th -12th men retained might do pretty similar to a lost 6th - 9th man. Contenders might lose 1-2 or their playoff rotation and modestly miss 1 but if it common it may not be that noticeable. A typical minutes qualified 4th man is in range of 0 to -1 on BPM.
If a lot of 4th men move that would be noticeable but not sure how much it would actually impact team performance.
I am absolutely not advocating another playoff round or bigger play-in. At 32 or 36 teams, the significance of making current format playoffs would go up, as imo it should.
Where do folks think the NBA will be in 20 years? I might guess closer to or beyond 36 than 32 or 30. If it eventually makes sense, get on with it, imo.
Expansion into towns should require meeting a realistic and traditional bar to support a team. If half of more of the 12 I mentioned can meet that bar, and I think they can, then you could responsibly do 6.
But they will do 2 or nothing in near or intermediate term and wait a decade or two for any more. So my specific idea will just be a passing wind for awhile, whether considered favorably by any or unfavorably by most or all.
Just my opinion for now. But maybe it will prove out in the long run, fwiw. Of course everyone else is welcome to their own view.
Silver and the owners will compare notes and take it from there. Fans more than 1-2 hours from a team may voice opinion / show potentially greater support or continue as is. The next next TV contracts may have a major new impetus, a smaller one or no change.
Managerial and coaching ranks are limited at the very good to elite levels now and may always be, unless the nets go out wider and with more skill / judgment... and incentive.
6 more teams likely would heavily redistribute 16th to 18th men to other teams and nearly same irrelevance. Some 4th, 8th, 12th men and such might move to weaker teams but some contending teams and / or players will seek and perhaps sacrifice to prevent it. Exact impact is unknown and should be consider by teams and league office before proceeding but this is the necessary kickoff of the initial idea necessary before consideration.
If teams only use 8-9 more than minimally in playoffs, they won't miss the 11-18th men hardly at all and some of the 10th -12th men retained might do pretty similar to a lost 6th - 9th man. Contenders might lose 1-2 or their playoff rotation and modestly miss 1 but if it common it may not be that noticeable. A typical minutes qualified 4th man is in range of 0 to -1 on BPM.
If a lot of 4th men move that would be noticeable but not sure how much it would actually impact team performance.
I am absolutely not advocating another playoff round or bigger play-in. At 32 or 36 teams, the significance of making current format playoffs would go up, as imo it should.
Where do folks think the NBA will be in 20 years? I might guess closer to or beyond 36 than 32 or 30. If it eventually makes sense, get on with it, imo.
Expansion into towns should require meeting a realistic and traditional bar to support a team. If half of more of the 12 I mentioned can meet that bar, and I think they can, then you could responsibly do 6.
But they will do 2 or nothing in near or intermediate term and wait a decade or two for any more. So my specific idea will just be a passing wind for awhile, whether considered favorably by any or unfavorably by most or all.
Just my opinion for now. But maybe it will prove out in the long run, fwiw. Of course everyone else is welcome to their own view.
Silver and the owners will compare notes and take it from there. Fans more than 1-2 hours from a team may voice opinion / show potentially greater support or continue as is. The next next TV contracts may have a major new impetus, a smaller one or no change.
Managerial and coaching ranks are limited at the very good to elite levels now and may always be, unless the nets go out wider and with more skill / judgment... and incentive.
Re: Expansion
Still nothing. Still waiting on Celtics sale.
Don't know for sure that it is not going well but don't know that it is going well either.
Don't know for sure that it is not going well but don't know that it is going well either.
Re: Expansion
Expansion by July 2027? After LeBron leaves? Other changes at same time?
Relocation of 2 or more with fees would give cash without further splitting the national TV revenue. It could another path.
Relocation of 2 or more with fees would give cash without further splitting the national TV revenue. It could another path.
Re: Expansion
They got the Celtics valuation validated.
So, expand if they are going to expand.
Domestic expansion and / or NBA Europe timing?
So, expand if they are going to expand.
Domestic expansion and / or NBA Europe timing?
Re: Expansion
if domestic expansion is deferred, perhaps in favor of the European project, the opportunity for an upstart domestic league would seem to improve. If any are up for it.
A world with 1-2 new European leagues, the same amount of existing ones, perhaps a new domestic league and a more professionalized college game. Would that be the worst outcome for the NBA? Would fans like some of the variety or be bothered by the potential chaos and dilution?
inevitable or largely self-created by NBA foot dragging and indecision?
possible impasse in WNBA, Unrivaled sitting there, and possibly a new euro rival too. Mo issues.
An agitated, impatient Vegas is probably somewhat worrisome.
What if some combination of the Euroleague, the new european tour talkers, US expansion cities and even the most professional of the college leagues got together in a grand alliance?
It probably won't get that wild... but... billions annually are up for possible reshuffling.
How good is the NBA's intel, estimation and projection of these other groups? How worried are they, if at all?
What if any game tweaks will these groups try (beyond location / new teams)?
Nothing to stop Euroleague or new european league from trying to have stronger teams in major cities. Except desire, money and commitment.
Who gets the best alliances with middle eastern money? What will Turkish team(s) do? Russians? Serbs? Chinese? Mexicans, Canadians, Argentines? Singapore in the proposed new league group or independent of it? Elsewhere?
All these things considered by NBA and / or rivals or anything new?
A world with 1-2 new European leagues, the same amount of existing ones, perhaps a new domestic league and a more professionalized college game. Would that be the worst outcome for the NBA? Would fans like some of the variety or be bothered by the potential chaos and dilution?
inevitable or largely self-created by NBA foot dragging and indecision?
possible impasse in WNBA, Unrivaled sitting there, and possibly a new euro rival too. Mo issues.
An agitated, impatient Vegas is probably somewhat worrisome.
What if some combination of the Euroleague, the new european tour talkers, US expansion cities and even the most professional of the college leagues got together in a grand alliance?
It probably won't get that wild... but... billions annually are up for possible reshuffling.
How good is the NBA's intel, estimation and projection of these other groups? How worried are they, if at all?
What if any game tweaks will these groups try (beyond location / new teams)?
Nothing to stop Euroleague or new european league from trying to have stronger teams in major cities. Except desire, money and commitment.
Who gets the best alliances with middle eastern money? What will Turkish team(s) do? Russians? Serbs? Chinese? Mexicans, Canadians, Argentines? Singapore in the proposed new league group or independent of it? Elsewhere?
All these things considered by NBA and / or rivals or anything new?
Re: Expansion
Can't see NBA Europe and NBA expansion in same year. Even back to back years may be too quick. Fall 2027 and 2029 or 2030? Order remains a mystery.
CBA expires after '29-30 or a year before if either side opts out. That will take attention.
Adam Silver is supposedly under contract thru at least 2029. How long does he stick around? 62 now. Til 2032 or 2035? Wouldn't expect longer. 2029 or 2030 is possible. How much does he want to stay and do himself?
CBA expires after '29-30 or a year before if either side opts out. That will take attention.
Adam Silver is supposedly under contract thru at least 2029. How long does he stick around? 62 now. Til 2032 or 2035? Wouldn't expect longer. 2029 or 2030 is possible. How much does he want to stay and do himself?
Re: Expansion
Big expansion fees seem likely to be attractive to team owners wanting some liquidity- and the chance to invest in other things that promise a greater return than the lost share of national TV revenue.
It could depend on whether team owners think there is going to be another great leap at next TV deal and beyond. I am skeptical but others may be more optimistic.
If NBA expansion gets put off for 5 years AND appears to be, will any group try a rival US league? A rival US league might be more financially feasible / lucrative than an international touring league or an NBA Europe. Potential TV partner, untapped cities, player comfort, big arenas, fans willing to spend big money, plenty of potential owners.
I highly doubt the Euroleague would try a strike into North America but it might be worth considering. If NBA isn't interested in a partnership or grand alliance, perhaps EuroLeague plus international touring league could make beachheads in North America as a partnership. Or at least threaten it. Have they ever met? Ever spoken about joint venture? Would mlseem short-sighted not to explore or think about.
Vancouver, Seattle, Las Vegas, San Jose, San Diego, Mexico City, Austin, Tampa, Norfolk, Nashville, Louisville, Montreal, maybe Kansas City, Columbus OH, Birmingham, even Buenos Aires.
The key to getting ball rolling would be a network acting as a founding partner.
Could try for a US league, a European league, or a world league. One major region, 2 or 3.
Have to have a vision... and then act, preferably before others.
Background talk is a starting point.
It could depend on whether team owners think there is going to be another great leap at next TV deal and beyond. I am skeptical but others may be more optimistic.
If NBA expansion gets put off for 5 years AND appears to be, will any group try a rival US league? A rival US league might be more financially feasible / lucrative than an international touring league or an NBA Europe. Potential TV partner, untapped cities, player comfort, big arenas, fans willing to spend big money, plenty of potential owners.
I highly doubt the Euroleague would try a strike into North America but it might be worth considering. If NBA isn't interested in a partnership or grand alliance, perhaps EuroLeague plus international touring league could make beachheads in North America as a partnership. Or at least threaten it. Have they ever met? Ever spoken about joint venture? Would mlseem short-sighted not to explore or think about.
Vancouver, Seattle, Las Vegas, San Jose, San Diego, Mexico City, Austin, Tampa, Norfolk, Nashville, Louisville, Montreal, maybe Kansas City, Columbus OH, Birmingham, even Buenos Aires.
The key to getting ball rolling would be a network acting as a founding partner.
Could try for a US league, a European league, or a world league. One major region, 2 or 3.
Have to have a vision... and then act, preferably before others.
Background talk is a starting point.
Re: Expansion
If NBA determined that an NBA Europe was not feasible as an A level league, it could do something as an explicit B level league.
A B level European league could potentially be affiliated with G league, BAL and another league in east or south to form a super B league.
Does NBA really want an A league to be anywhere near NBA? I don't know the dynamics of various futures. Potential and possible peril. Can the greatest show stay as great when there are more shows with some stature?
A B level European league could potentially be affiliated with G league, BAL and another league in east or south to form a super B league.
Does NBA really want an A league to be anywhere near NBA? I don't know the dynamics of various futures. Potential and possible peril. Can the greatest show stay as great when there are more shows with some stature?
Re: Expansion
How much, if anything, will be decided in July board meeting?
Re: Expansion
Expansion? Not soon. Good chance not.
Re-location? Probably not wanted, so they can change their mind. But will a team or teams force the issue?
Does the Commissioner actually have a recommendation? Unclear. Not one he passed. Unknown if he even pushed.
NBA Europe looks like a deflection. Looks like a fantasy cash grab. Does it have to fail to get NBA expansion?
Does expansion have short term benefits for national media partner? Technically projected and / or believed by them? What does NBA think? Was Silver withholding it for the next jump in rights fees instead of lumping it in?
Going to assess the value of expansion further? Because the last 2 and 10 years weren't used adequately?
The story moves very slowly.
Either they are satisfied with size of national audience and / or current means of expanding or are willing to use team expansion for hoped for audience expansion and more future media money.
Re-location? Probably not wanted, so they can change their mind. But will a team or teams force the issue?
Does the Commissioner actually have a recommendation? Unclear. Not one he passed. Unknown if he even pushed.
NBA Europe looks like a deflection. Looks like a fantasy cash grab. Does it have to fail to get NBA expansion?
Does expansion have short term benefits for national media partner? Technically projected and / or believed by them? What does NBA think? Was Silver withholding it for the next jump in rights fees instead of lumping it in?
Going to assess the value of expansion further? Because the last 2 and 10 years weren't used adequately?
The story moves very slowly.
Either they are satisfied with size of national audience and / or current means of expanding or are willing to use team expansion for hoped for audience expansion and more future media money.
Re: Expansion
I am not aware of a single pwner who spoke publicly in favor of expansion at this time. None against for attribution either but the former is a bigger deal to me.
If it happens, probably 2029 or later.
If it happens, probably 2029 or later.
Re: Expansion
How long is everybody interested in basketball in Vegas willing to wait on NBA expansion?
It could be a core part of a rival league (new domestic or partner to international tour or EuroLeague), a rival league unto itself (casino teams, corporate teams and/or teams owned by those who can't get into NBA) or a new partner to elements of college basketball (continuous tournaments, possibly cross conference and brand new? NCAA vs global teams?)
Traditional season schedule / competition or takeover summer. There are plenty of players available and casinos looking for more traffic.
Itchy fingers, billions of dollars, new ideas...
LeBron wants to own a Vegas franchise or a league? If not with NBA, could do things without. One of the options or some combination of them.
It could be a core part of a rival league (new domestic or partner to international tour or EuroLeague), a rival league unto itself (casino teams, corporate teams and/or teams owned by those who can't get into NBA) or a new partner to elements of college basketball (continuous tournaments, possibly cross conference and brand new? NCAA vs global teams?)
Traditional season schedule / competition or takeover summer. There are plenty of players available and casinos looking for more traffic.
Itchy fingers, billions of dollars, new ideas...
LeBron wants to own a Vegas franchise or a league? If not with NBA, could do things without. One of the options or some combination of them.
Re: Expansion
NBA expansion probably on hold until NBA Europe is established, fails or never happens.
Never heard a,word on whether NBA Players Association is pro, con neutral on expansion or doesn't know or doesn't care. If they took a position,,I'd think that would be pretty important. Pros and cons of dividing pie more ways, expanding pie some, probably creating more jobs and creating rationale for more distant future media revenue. Next CBA with or without an opt out not too far off.
Never heard a,word on whether NBA Players Association is pro, con neutral on expansion or doesn't know or doesn't care. If they took a position,,I'd think that would be pretty important. Pros and cons of dividing pie more ways, expanding pie some, probably creating more jobs and creating rationale for more distant future media revenue. Next CBA with or without an opt out not too far off.