APBRmetrics

What would I recommend for the Hawks?

Re-sign Capela at modest backup level or position sharing money or let him walk. Same for LeVert and Nance. If need to replace, look at players 26 and under.

Probably keep Trae Young at least til deadline but check what is out there for him. I am likely trading him within 18 months and are definitely not extending at or near the max.

Keep playing Gueye.

Foul less. Gamble for steals less.

Try to get J Richardson or trade down or out. Consider Danny Wolf if available, especially with 2nd selection.

I'd tell Synder to live on 100 lineups the first 8 weeks.

Get Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu to 100 and 200 and 400 minutes as fast as possible. Jalen Johnson played almost 1300 minutes and this lineup just played 16.

With acquisition of Porzingis, Capela is almost certainly gone.

Newell is probably a decent pick at 23.

Other acquisitions creating positive buzz.

Young hasn't got extension offer and is apparently not happy about it. I don't think he gets one. I wouldn't do a max or close.

Will anyone trade for him? Can be free agent next summer.

I 'd think an acquiring team would want to negotiate with him to take trade with plan to give up player option and extend at a lower to much lower number.

Hard to say who would go for that. Jazz could possibly but probably not if they are high on Clayton. Could Markkanen be involved? Mutli-team deal? I don't immediately see anything more plausible. Don't see a main contender doing it but will look further. Maybe Hornets would take in a deal, 2 way or more. Bucks if Giannis moves. Pelicans if Dumars / Weaver want to move D Murray, somewhere. Blazers involving Holiday. Heat involving Rozer.

Haven't seen smoke on it but would not be surprised if it is being worked on.

Hawks very much not ready to operate without Young. Time remaining to change that, but they will need to prepare better if that becomes the plan.

I should learn more about Krecji but currently am skeptical of him being the replacement, if the team aspires to anything beyond mid.

Positive off-season review has been followed by disappointing season start.

Risacher, negative so far on almost all stats year to year except FT%, turnovers and raw on / off.

Darko: Bottom 25% overall, bottom 20% on recent change. Slightly below average on O-Darko, bottom 6% on D.

-10 on BPM.

No known draft board was lower on him than me.

Risacher up slightly to 30th in draft class.

31st on my 2024 draft board.

Options with Young:

Back to running things

Make most of his minutes with bench units.

Trade him.

I wouldn't not favor the 1st option.

Try the second, explore the third.

With and without Young

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1995 ... 19947?s=20

Young, 4 years past his Darko peak.

No hints of return to peak.

Trade options are probably not good. Is there a team who would offer him a 3 year extension around $90 million with agreement to waive next season's option? Won't he get less in 2027? Maybe he makes more with option + next deal over this route but how much more and how much more risk?

Hawks slightly worse than average on offense and defense. Good at own shooting, elite on opponent turnovers, below average on all other factors. Priorities and non priorities seem pretty common.

No strong pairs in 12 most used. A handful of better ones in next 8, including 3 with Krejci.

5 of 6 most used lineups positive but also just 5 of 10 and 9 of 20. 3 lineups over 100 minutes is relatively concentrated but just 6 over 28. Haven't quite cracked 200 lineups so far but close and of course hurts in quality of testing. More rigorous use of 10-20 most used would probably help with sorting winners from losers.

Plenty of trade talk rumors. Will be watching what actually happens.

Speculated to be willing to let Young, Porzingis and Risacher go. I'd add Daniels to the pool of possibles.

Young traded.

Hawks can keep or try to flip McCollum and / or Kispert.

Lineup management:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2019 ... 26841?s=20

Roster adjustment. What exactly is the vision?

Landale and Kuminga will change lineup management. Disrupting Gueye is a concern to me. He has mixed stats and mixed lineup results. If they keep the best lineups and lose some of the test, ok. Lose the best? That would be a step back.