APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Oct 31, 2025 12:59 am**

Season at 5.5%, eWins projected to the full 82 games, if players continue at their current minutes per team's game.

e82     per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
22.9   V Wembanyama  SAS   129  .667   41.7  16.7   2.9   1.6   1.7  5.4   4.19
21.4   Giannis A     Mil   131  .704   43.2  15.8   6.3    .8   3.7  1.4   3.85
17.3   Shai G-A      OKC   193  .596   36.0   6.1   4.7   1.3   2.3  1.3   2.65
16.6   Nikola Jokić  Den   137  .638   22.9  16.4  10.2   2.0   3.2   .5   2.87
16.2  Austin Reaves  LAL   191  .668   32.8   5.7   7.8   2.0   3.6   .0   2.50

14.4   Tyrese Maxey  Phl   172  .605   28.4   3.2   5.9   1.0   1.7   .6   1.98
13.7 Lauri Markkanen Uta   153  .651   31.3   6.8   2.2    .7   1.0   .7   2.11
12.9  Stephen Curry  GSW   152  .678   33.8   4.9   5.4   1.9   2.7  1.0   2.51
12.9  Jalen Brunson  NYK   139  .596   32.3   4.1   4.9   1.3   2.1   .0   2.19
12.3  Alperen Şengün Hou   152  .609   22.5   8.8   6.3   1.5   2.9   .7   1.90

e82     11-20         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
12.2   LaMelo Ball   Cha   130  .593   25.1   9.4   8.5   2.0   4.6   .3   2.21
12.1  Nikola Vučević Chi   130  .689   22.7  14.4   4.8    .9   2.3   .3   2.20
11.7   Jamal Murray  Den   134  .610   30.1   4.9   5.6   1.3   2.2   .0   2.06
11.7  Pascal Siakam  Ind   143  .510   22.2  10.2   4.5   1.9   2.1   .3   1.92
11.5  Julius Randle  Min   176  .662   26.6   7.0   4.5   1.4   2.3   .4   1.93

11.2   Jaylen Brown  Bos   163  .629   32.6   6.4   3.8    .4   4.1   .5   2.04
10.5  Walker Kessler Uta   125  .810   22.6  11.8   3.5   1.7   3.9  2.7   1.99
10.5   Kevin Durant  Hou   145  .636   27.9   6.7   1.8    .8   2.3  1.0   1.71
10.3  Anthony Davis  Dal   149  .575   23.9  12.2   2.3   2.1   2.7  1.5   2.05
10.3  Chet Holmgren  OKC   137  .708   30.0  11.5   1.7   1.3   3.2  1.3   2.21

e82     21-30         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
10.2   James Harden  LAC   127  .659   26.9   5.5   7.9   1.2   4.7   .3   1.90
10.0   Aaron Gordon  Den   119  .752   31.0   7.2   2.4    .9   1.9   .3   1.99
9.9    Luka Dončić   LAL    76  .713   46.0  11.7   6.6   1.1   2.9   .5   3.83
9.8 Donovan Mitchell Cle   166  .651   31.0   2.9   4.3   1.3   4.2   .4   1.74
9.7   Jimmy Butler   GSW   163  .686   25.6   5.6   4.8   1.0   1.8   .0   1.76

9.5   Evan Mobley    Cle   169  .523   16.9  10.8   4.4   1.7   2.8  2.2   1.67
9.5   Mikal Bridges  NYK   146  .667   18.6   6.5   4.2   1.5    .8   .8   1.54
9.4   Josh Giddey    Chi   125  .542   21.7   9.6   7.7    .5   4.7   .6   1.78
9.3   Jrue Holiday   Por   161  .624   20.6   6.4   7.4   1.6   3.7   .5   1.70
8.8  Kyshawn George  Was   132  .659   20.0   9.2   4.1   1.3   3.1  1.7   1.57

e82     31-41         tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.7   Norman Powell  Mia    93  .649   28.9   8.1   2.9   2.3   2.4   .4   2.22
8.7   Jaime Jaquez   Mia   112  .728   25.4   7.1   4.3   1.5   2.8   .0   1.83
8.6   Alex Sarr      Was   110  .609   22.4  10.5   4.4   1.0   4.1  2.7   1.84
8.6   Kawhi Leonard  LAC   128  .563   23.4   7.2   2.9   1.2   2.0   .6   1.58
8.3  Scottie Barnes  Tor   164  .631   20.8   7.1   3.6   1.8   2.5   .9   1.49

8.2   Ja Morant      Mem   140  .539   25.1   5.1   7.0   1.6   3.7   .0   1.73
8.2  Cade Cunningham Det   176  .493   19.5   5.5   7.2    .8   4.6  1.3   1.37
8.2   Zach LaVine    Sac   183  .661   28.5   3.1   1.2    .3   2.2   .2   1.32
8.1   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   161  .578   17.3   5.2   4.2   1.7   1.8   .5   1.19
8.1   Deni Avdija    Por   162  .598   22.8   7.5   4.0    .7   4.3  1.1   1.48
8.0   Jalen Duren    Det   113  .643   24.8  15.6   1.7   1.0   5.0  2.7   2.08

#42-50: Keyonte George, Tre Jones, Booker, Adebayo, Zubac, Je Grant, Clingan, Towns, Banchero
51-60: F Wagner, Ajay Mitchell, Kuminga, M Porter, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Johnson, J Allen, Pritchard, DeRozan, Castle

Posted: **Fri Oct 31, 2025 2:06 pm**

Vučević, Barnes, Keyonte George and Castle are among the bigger "surprises" to me based on last season impressions.

Posted: **Sat Nov 08, 2025 7:09 pm**

At 11% of the season.

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
20.2   Nikola Jokić   Den   274  .709   30.2  13.8  10.6   2.0   2.7   .9   3.48
17.8   Giannis A      Mil   256  .658   38.5  15.4   6.0   1.2   3.2  1.3   3.69
17.5   Shai G-A       OKC   348  .629   38.7   5.4   5.8   1.0   1.9  1.3   2.97
16.0   V Wembanyama   SAS   273  .583   26.8  14.2   3.2   1.3   3.3  4.2   2.76
14.8   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   330  .618   28.3   4.8   6.3   1.1   2.6   .9   2.12

13.0   Julius Randle  Min   306  .664   28.8   8.1   5.6   1.3   3.3   .4   2.25
12.5  Alperen Şengün  Hou   293  .557   22.0  10.5   6.6   1.3   3.5   .9   2.01
12.1 Donovan Mitchell Cle   262  .690   36.8   3.5   4.8   1.8   3.7   .6   2.45
12.0   Jalen Duren    Det   241  .689   29.6  15.2   1.8   1.2   2.9  1.7   2.65
11.9   Luka Dončić    LAL   195  .619   36.0  11.5   7.1   1.9   3.8   .6   3.24

e82     11-20          tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
11.8  Cade Cunningham Det   322  .554   25.1   4.7   8.4   1.0   3.8   .8   1.95
11.5   Josh Giddey    Chi   274  .574   22.2   9.9   8.3    .8   3.9   .3   1.99
11.3   Jaylen Brown   Bos   317  .614   33.0   6.0   4.1    .9   4.2   .4   2.11
11.3   Jalen Brunson  NYK   272  .568   27.6   4.0   5.7   1.3   2.5   .0   1.96
11.3   Austin Reaves  LAL   265  .637   29.8   5.5   7.4   1.4   3.3   .0   2.26

11.1   Devin Booker   Phx   331  .625   29.2   4.2   5.7    .7   4.1   .3   1.79
10.4  Scottie Barnes  Tor   293  .573   20.6   8.1   4.6   1.9   2.2  1.8   1.89
10.4   Pascal Siakam  Ind   285  .509   21.9   7.7   5.1   1.9   3.0   .4   1.72
10.2   Jamal Murray   Den   265  .591   25.1   5.8   5.3   1.3   2.4   .4   1.82
10.0  Nikola Vučević  Chi   255  .677   22.3  12.5   3.1    .7   2.2   .4   1.86

e82     21-30          tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.9   Paolo Banchero  Orl   312  .542   20.5   9.8   4.0    .9   2.7  1.2   1.69
9.9   Karl-A Towns    NYK   265  .558   19.4  13.7   3.1    .7   3.4  1.3   1.76
9.7   Evan Mobley     Cle   301  .537   18.7  10.0   3.9   1.9   3.0  1.8   1.71
9.7  Lauri Markkanen  Uta   318  .580   25.9   6.2   1.8   1.0   1.4   .5   1.61
9.6  Is. Hartenstein  OKC   300  .683   18.5  14.6   3.8   1.8   2.5   .7   1.89

9.4   Deni Avdija     Por   267  .600   24.6   7.4   4.2    .8   4.3  1.0   1.66
9.2   James Harden    LAC   235  .655   25.9   6.0   7.8   1.2   4.6   .2   1.85
8.7   Stephon Castle  SAS   266  .586   21.2   7.1   6.6   2.1   5.6   .6   1.55
8.7   Jalen Johnson   Atl   256  .630   23.5   9.2   4.6   1.6   3.3   .3   1.80
8.6   Aaron Gordon    Den   236  .691   28.0   6.7   1.7   1.0   2.0   .2   1.71

e82     31-40          tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.5   Alex Sarr       Was   253  .599   20.8   9.5   3.7    .9   3.5  3.2   1.79
8.5   Kevin Durant    Hou   284  .589   24.8   5.3   2.4   1.0   3.1   .9   1.41
8.4   Stephen Curry   GSW   249  .617   30.0   4.4   4.3   1.7   3.4   .7   1.99
8.4   Mikal Bridges   NYK   281  .660   16.8   4.9   4.7   1.5   1.2  1.2   1.40
8.3   RJ Barrett      Tor   292  .634   22.8   5.5   3.3   1.4   2.2   .5   1.52

8.3   Franz Wagner    Orl   311  .594   22.3   5.8   3.2   1.2   2.4   .4   1.42
8.1   Brandon Ingram  Tor   295  .602   22.3   6.8   3.6   1.1   3.3   .8   1.46
8.0   Kawhi Leonard   LAC   201  .616   25.5   6.5   3.2   2.2   2.0   .7   1.89
8.0   OG Anunoby      NYK   271  .607   18.3   6.3   2.2   2.8   1.9   .8   1.39
7.7   Jrue Holiday    Por   264  .577   17.2   5.6   7.2   1.5   3.4   .3   1.37

41-50: Keyonte George, Claxton, LaMelo, Butler, Adebayo, Jaquez, Miles Bridges, Zubac, Amen Thompson, Jarrett Allen
51-60: M Porter, Ausar Thompson, Rollins, McDaniels, Oubre, Jerami Grant, Ajay Mitchell, Ayton, Andrew Wiggins, Pritchard

Posted: **Sat Nov 08, 2025 7:33 pm**

Andrew Wiggins 59th here.

+1.2 BPM. 67th among qualifiers. 122nd overall. 6th best on team.

7th and 8th best on team +/- on court and on / off. On is barely positive. On / off is -16.5.

257 on Darko. Lowest in 4 years, mostly down for 3 years. Rate of change getting worse entire career apart from 2.5 season uptick. O-DPM worst since rookie season. D -DPM slightly below neutral and a clear tier lower than his peak period a few years ago. Some recent improvement in 3pta rate and fta rate but at the rim fga rate is near career low.

109th on actual EPM. 211 on expected EPM.

Recent past RAPM was bad.

LeBron not yet available to my knowledge. Same for craftedPM.

Wiggins estimated worse everywhere else than here.

Posted: **Sun Nov 09, 2025 1:12 am**

Andrew Wiggins is at 1.20 eWins/484 min, about the same as 1.2 BPM.
At b-r.com there are 199 'qualifiers' for rate stats. When I sort my list by minutes, among the top 199, his e484 ranks 74th.
His 1.2 BPM ranks 67th. WS/48 of .103 ranks #108, and 15.6 PER is #92.

With 0.6 Win Shares he is #82, and his 0.2 VORP is 57th. eWins 64th.
He plays the same position (SF) as Jacquez and Fontecchio, both of whom are playing great off the bench. That may have something to do with his on-off?

Career high TS%, Stl and Blk%, above avg Reb% yields career high BPM and ~WS/48.

Posted: **Sun Nov 09, 2025 1:34 am**

His story benefits from depth and there are 2 sides of his current case.

His +1.2 BPM is surprisingly career best and that highlights how overpaid he has been relative to impact.

Offensive rebounding is pretty good for position. Defensive rebounding is slightly above career average but has been higher in 8 seasons and for 10 team stints.
I believe it would rank below league average for SFs and way below for part-time PFs.

Yes team average 20 pts better results with Jaquez and 12 pts better with Fontecchio.

It is good he is playing better in some areas. He is just not top 60 to me. Is he top 2 on Heat? No. Has he ever been top 2 on a team? I don't think so. There aren't many teams he'd be top 2 on.

Just a case I felt like re-familarizing myself with.

Posted: **Sun Nov 09, 2025 1:52 am**

I won't do a whole song & dance on Jaylen Brown at the moment. I check him periodically. Among BPM qualifiers he is 23rd. On Darko, 39th, with 3 seasons of mostly down.

Alternate takes. The more takes seen and considered, the better.

Hartenstein 25th and Avdija 26th are worth noting and probably reviewing in depth.

Castle 28th? I'll probably get to him in more detail later. For now I'll say 232nd on Darko. Improving on offense, sliding low on defense.

Posted: **Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:01 am**

You probably know that BPM and eW/484 are per-minute rates, while eWins and VORP are rates*minutes. Wiggins leads his team in minutes, and most or all boxscore stats don't capture much defense. For whatever reason, the coach plays him the most minutes on the team. His D-WS and DBPM are both well higher than his O-rates.

I would guess the SAS coach is pretty pleased with Castle stepping up to basically fill the PG role, and not so badly. Fox is back now, and both can play with or without the ball. Wemby may see more daylight.

Posted: **Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:29 am**

Wiggins on vs. off: offensive rating almost 7.5 pts lower on, defense almost 10 pts worse. Heat shoot and rebound worse with, opponents improve on both, especially on shooting.

Wiggins defensive estimates across 11 metrics are pretty evenly split between positive, neutral and negative.

Castle has improved considerably over his over-rated rookie season in a number of ways but he is 12th on team for +/- on court and on / off (close to -6).

Posted: **Mon Nov 10, 2025 2:59 am**

I think it's typical of teams with a so-so starting 5 and a supercharged bench unit, that it will appear as if "opponents improve" vs the starters. The bench guys aren't going against 4 opponent starters on avg, but more like 2 or 3.
So if a coach wants to have 2 or 3 of his top 5 scorers on the floor all the time, they can't all start. It's smart coaching; not everyone can shoot, and you have some defending, rebounding and distributing guys out there.
Or maybe the coach is an idiot.

Posted: **Mon Nov 10, 2025 3:12 am**

Coaches can be very good or off or a mix of good and not with their lineup decisions.

Spo's 20 most used lineups are 10 positive, 1 neutral, 9 negative. The 2 biggest minute lineups are bad and terrible with Wiggins in the latter. Wiggins 10 most used lineups are 5 positive, 5 not. 10 most used pairs are 4 positive, 6 negative. All the positives with bench players.

Against mostly starters is tougher and raw +/- is not completely satisfactory for comparisons because of the difference. But it is a quick draw and reality in its simplest form.

RAPM is the more equitable approach. Wiggins has been rated negative on 4 versions, from time decayed, xrapm and 2 and 3 year RAPM. Mildly to moderately negative. The most recent 2 year RAPM estimate (probably from before this season) reached a career worst -3.4.

Will probably check Heat lineups and Wiggins performance later in season.

There are lots of things to check and checking everything is not that common. Even if one checks everything, different perspectives and summation are possible.
More information is better but may not end up with everyone taking the same view. Detail presented for consideration.

Last playoffs was the worst version of Wiggins. Bad shooting, weak rebounding and a poor A/TO lead to a -5.5 BPM. By far his worst playoffs but 3 of 4 have had a negative BPM. The title playoffs was positive but only +0.8.

Playoffs after this season? Time will eventually tell of opportunity, utilization and individual and team results.

Last playoffs Spo used Wiggins in 22 lineups. Outside 3 lineups used for 1-2 minutes, they were all non-positive and more than 50% of time horrible. Despite most things not working then, 4 of 6 biggest lineups without Wiggins were non-negative. 3 positive, 1 neutral. Small samples. Maybe too small. Hard to imagine being worse than with Wiggins starting and most playing big minutes. Final game his time was cut by a third but not before he had a team +/- of -27. Others were very bad that game but only one was clearly worse per minute. For series, he was 9th best on court, 10th best on / off and horrendous and bad respectively.

But their call to rely on him now or later.

APBRmetrics

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