APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Oct 31, 2025 1:13 am**

Projected to the full season, now at 5.5% complete, rookie eWins are projecting to a total of 57.
With no change in their current minutes per game :

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.1   VJ Edgecombe   Phl  161  .578   17.3   5.2   4.2   1.7   1.8   .5   1.19
6.5   Dylan Harper   SAS  104  .557   20.3   7.4   5.9   1.2   2.6   .0   1.48
6.4   Cedric Coward  Mem  122  .800   23.6   5.4   2.3   1.6   1.1   .8   1.54
4.6 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha  106  .905   14.5  10.2    .8   1.4   2.1  1.4   1.03
3.8   Kon Knueppel   Cha  118  .696   18.1   5.3   1.9    .6   2.5   .0    .76

3.7   Cooper Flagg   Dal  161  .496   12.8   6.8   2.7   1.0   2.3   .7    .68
2.9   Sion James     Cha   79  .868   15.5   3.9   2.0   1.3    .4   .9    .86
2.5   Tre Johnson    Was  107  .578   15.1   4.0   1.9    .3   1.6  1.0    .56
2.4  Jeremiah Fears  NOP  104  .546   15.1   2.4   3.1   1.6   3.1   .0    .55
2.0   Derik Queen    NOP   85  .500   10.2   8.7    .3   1.1   2.0  1.2    .56

e82    per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.9   Will Richard   GSW   71  .711   13.2   5.0   2.9   2.4   1.9   .0    .79
1.8  Walter Clayton  Uta   78  .536   10.8   6.3   4.4   1.2   3.0   .0    .55
1.2  Collin M-Boyles Tor   62  .593   14.3   3.6   1.2   1.9   1.7   .6    .58
1.1   Egor Demin     Brk   82  .625    9.9   7.2   3.1    .9   3.3   .0    .38
0.9   Javon Small    Mem   89  .516    9.4   2.7   6.4    .0   2.6   .4    .28

0.3   Hugo González  Bos   45  .375    3.3   4.0    .7   3.0    .0   .8    .17
-.1   Ace Bailey     Uta   63  .320    4.8   5.1   2.7    .0   1.1   .5   -.04
-.3   Ben Saraf      Brk   91  .308    3.3   5.0   4.9    .9   3.3   .0   -.09
-.5 Brooks Barnhizer OKC   41  .429    3.9   4.9    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.34
-.6  Tyrese Proctor  Cle   47  .313    4.0   3.0   1.8   1.3   2.8   .0   -.38

These are all the rookies with >40 minutes total.
30 eWins among West rookies to 27 in the East.

Posted: **Fri Oct 31, 2025 2:00 pm**

Kalkbrenner and S James are my biggest good draft calls so far.

Posted: **Fri Oct 31, 2025 5:12 pm**

I see we both put Charlotte down with 31 wins in the contest. I used Pelton minutes and applied them to 4 different stats.
Hornets are using 4 rookies, all drafted in the top 34. Last night 3 of them started, and they got shellacked.
Here I'm comparing their projected Wins with their predicted wins contributed:

Code: Select all

.  Hornets   predicted based on draft number      current, projected to 82 G
. rookies   dr#  mpg   perW   WS  bpmW    eW     mpg   perW   WS  bpmW   eW*
K Knueppel    4   26   5.0   5.3   4.9   4.7      29   2.5   1.0   1.1   3.7
L McNeeley   29    7    .8    .8    .7    .7       6   1.2   2.0   1.4    .3
Sion James   33    3    .3    .3    .3    .3      21   4.0   5.3   5.0   3.1
Kalkbrenner  34   17   1.7   1.7   1.6   1.5      27   6.6   6.5   4.5   4.8
.   totals        53   7.7   8.1   7.5   7.2      84  14.3  14.8  12.0  12.0
                                    
. rookies    min    PER   WS/48   BPM  e484       min   PER   WS/48    BPM  e484
K Knueppel  2128   16.1   .123    0.6  1.08      2378   10.5   .021   -4.1   .76
L McNeeley   608   11.5   .065   -2.2   .56       525   15.8   .190    1.6   .31
Sion James   228   11.3   .063   -2.3   .54      1755   15.9   .149    2.0   .86
Kalkbrenner 1368   11.3   .063   -2.3   .53      2247   18.8   .143   -0.2  1.03
. totals    4332   13.7   .093   -0.9   .81      6904   15.0   .106   -0.8   .84

Minute totals on the left are KPel; on the right, current*82/5
* - eWins rate does not include last night's game: McNeely was great, Kalk good, James meh, Kneup terrible.
Kneuppel largely cancels overachievement by the other 3.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 00CHO.html

Posted: **Sat Nov 08, 2025 7:23 pm**

At .107 of the season, rookies project to total 53 eWins.
With at least 90 minutes:

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.1   Cedric Coward  Mem   265  .688   18.9   7.3   3.0   1.4   1.4   .4   1.36
5.9   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   309  .544   14.3   5.6   3.8   1.4   1.8   .2    .90
5.0 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha   246  .806   13.0   9.6    .6   1.6   2.4  3.5   1.09
4.4   Cooper Flagg   Dal   291  .500   13.6   7.3   2.5   1.3   2.4   .8    .80
4.3   Kon Knueppel   Cha   284  .597   16.4   7.1   2.2    .7   2.5   .1    .81

3.8   Dylan Harper   SAS   140  .575   19.6   6.1   4.9    .9   2.6   .0   1.30
3.2  Jeremiah Fears  NOP   202  .510   15.0   4.2   3.8   1.9   3.1   .0    .75
3.0   Will Richard   GSW   136  .745   19.9   5.0   2.7   2.1   1.2   .0   1.29
2.8   Derik Queen    NOP   149  .532   11.8   9.6   1.8   2.1   2.6   .9    .88
2.1   Sion James     Cha   227  .784   13.2   4.3   1.6    .8   1.2   .5    .49

e82    per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.5  Collin M-Boyles Tor   146  .532   11.7   5.7   1.7   1.6   2.2   .7    .55
1.5  Walter Clayton  Uta   148  .568   10.2   4.8   5.5   1.2   2.6   .2    .52
1.2   Tre Johnson    Was   233  .561   12.4   3.7   1.4    .3   2.0   .9    .26
1.1   Egor Demin     Brk   155  .489    6.9   5.5   4.2   1.9   2.6   .4    .36
.3   Nique Clifford  Sac   108  .423    4.5   5.9   2.5    .9    .6  1.0    .17

.3   Hugo González   Bos   110  .472    5.7   5.6   1.5   1.8    .9   .3    .18
.3   Javon Small     Mem    99  .515    8.7   2.5   5.8    .0   2.5   .3    .18
.3   Tyrese Proctor  Cle    92  .507    9.7   2.9   2.9   1.3   2.0   .0    .17
-.1   Ace Bailey     Uta   166  .414    7.0   5.7   2.3    .6   2.3   .2   -.03
-.1   Ben Saraf      Brk    94  .350    4.6   5.0   4.9    .8   3.5   .0   -.08

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