APBRmetrics

I have generally not spent a lot of time talking the Lakers but there are some comments here and there.

I guess I'll add a topic to centralize new comments.


Doncic's "offensive rating" has gone down big month to month to month. Defense has slipped too from start to current.

Had 5 straight negative +/- before a big positive in last game.

3pt fg% started out at 35% in October. Down to 29% in December.

His raw team +/- on court and on / off are the least strong in 5 seasons. 7th and 5th best on team respectively.

Hitting 92.5% at rim but on less than 8% of shots, which is less than half of career average.

Has missed 23% of games this season so far. Right about his average.

Of 10 most used lineups, it is 4 positive (3 strong), 6 negative (3 terrible). Of 10 most used pairs, 9 are positive, though only 3 better than +2 (Reaves, Smart and Vincent). With LeBron is the massive exception at almost -10. Not more than +1.6 with Hachimura, Ayton and Hayes. +3.2 with LaRavia. Sure looks to me like they could benefit from new / different interiors. All 4 positive main lineups had 2-3 frontline guys. Not aware yet of team performance with just 1 frontline guy.

Team offensive efficiency is 7th highest, Defense 9th lowest. Barely positive net rating.

5 wins above expected. They would hope to maintain that but downside if that comes back to more expected.

Lakers went 15W-4L, then 5-7. Lost 4 of last 5.

What will the final record be? Pretty wide open.

Will 5 wins above expected fade?

Doncic - James went fron near -10 / 100p for season in about 10 minutes per game to near 20 min / gm at -21. Coaching against the numbers...

Lakers have their second 4 losses in 5 stretch.

Bench goes 4 for 19 tonight. Starters scored alright but defensive results / opponent success was overpowering.

5th seed but have folks on their tail. SRS is slightly negative.

Kennard added. Enough to matter?

Had a fair amount of Doncic posts on X if you want to look them up.

I'll put this one here:

LeBron stays at diminished salary / minutes / role or goes to Cavs, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers? Mavs? Wizards? Pacers?

Off-season revamp strategy:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2027 ... 44100?s=20

Finally admitting Lakers to my contender tier (10th team).

+7 actual wins vs expected. 10-1 in March.
Season SRS remains low at +1.5 but probably should not be sole basis for keeping them out.

Best winning % in clutch at 76%.

Thunder, Spurs, Pistons and Knick also high. Celtics, Rockets, Warriors below average. So are Hornets for season.

Doncic out for awhile.

6 of 8 seasons with games played under 70 and 2 barely in low 70s.

Was 36 minutes per game wise? Diesn't seem like it, for health. Maybe for seeding. And awards.

27 now.

Darko projection hit a peak to date late last season. Commentary being otherwise, defensive Darko on a significant, continous decline this season. Fwiw.

Doncic Reaves Smart was +20 / 100p in regular season for 475 minutes. With Hachimura, +22 but only in about 215 minutes.

James and Ayton each in one very strong quad with Doncic among 20 most used but only one.

Appears to be a case for far higher concentration on 4 quads but that didn't happen.

Without James would still have 3 if Ayton, Hachimura and Smart are retained along with Reaves. Without Reaves would have none of the full strong quads.

The gap between the 4 best and the rest was huge.

Playoffs lost with Doncic out; but if want a better future, I'd read the lineup data and concentrate far more on the best, at least in playoffs.

Instead Redick used 1205 different quads in regular season.

165 quads in the playoffs.

The number explodes quickly, unless you decide to not let it.

No guarantees, but the most powerful analytic advice in one word is probably CONCENTRATE.

Tons of uncertainty / options.

Will they get better?

Lakers said to want a lob big. A rim protecting big is equally or more important. What will they spend on either or both after they spend huge on perimeters?

Will they target Mitchell Robinson or Robert Williams? Will they get them? Offer enough money? Offer $10-14 mil and hear them say: Nawh man, got to be at least S20"?

If not, who else? Day'Ron Sharpe?

By Darko, LeBron is estimated with a tie for 88th best projection. Top 7% on offense, bottom 15% on defense. A slow general decline for 13 years. Defense iimproved in bubble title year and shortly thereafter but then a steeper decline began, pulling his defensive Darko down to lowest since a rookie.

By nbasalarymodel.xyz he was estimated worth about $37 million at last season's games & minutes.