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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:30 am Post subject: Current stars and their historic similars Reply with quote
Euclidean differences between some players' 2010-11 rates and others' entire career rates. Not surprisingly, many players are most similar to their own careers.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 James,Lebron 27.0 7.2 7.8 2.1 1.4 3.6 .4
.22 Lebron James 28.8 7.2 6.2 1.8 1.6 3.0 .8
.42 Dwyane Wade 27.9 5.2 6.1 2.5 1.8 3.7 .9
.52 Oscar Robertson 21.9 5.3 8.0 2.6 2.0 3.4 .7

.60 Tracy McGrady 24.0 6.6 5.1 2.0 1.4 2.5 1.0
.64 Kobe Bryant 27.0 5.5 4.5 2.7 1.5 2.9 .6
.68 Larry Bird 22.8 9.9 5.7 2.5 1.7 3.0 .8
.71 Michael Jordan 31.2 6.5 5.1 2.6 2.3 2.7 .8

The 'diff' number (other than 2011, which merely indicates this season -- the diff is really zero) sums the square roots of the differences in the square roots of the other categories.
LeBron is having a subpar year in scoring, TO, Blk; up in Ast.

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Wade,Dwyane 27.7 6.9 4.8 2.5 1.4 2.9 1.1
.18 Kobe Bryant 27.0 5.5 4.5 2.7 1.5 2.9 .6
.18 Lebron James 28.8 7.2 6.2 1.8 1.6 3.0 .8
.19 Tracy McGrady 24.0 6.6 5.1 2.0 1.4 2.5 1.0

.23 Paul Pierce 24.6 6.4 3.8 2.9 1.5 3.0 .6
.24 Michael Jordan 31.2 6.5 5.1 2.6 2.3 2.7 .8
.28 Dwyane Wade 27.9 5.2 6.1 2.5 1.8 3.7 .9
.29 Vince Carter 24.4 5.7 4.2 3.0 1.2 2.3 .7
Wade's become a bigger-rebounding, lesser-passing-and-TO version of himself. Who knew?

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Bryant,Kobe 29.5 5.7 5.3 2.3 1.4 3.2 .1
.29 Kobe Bryant 27.0 5.5 4.5 2.7 1.5 2.9 .6
.48 Lebron James 28.8 7.2 6.2 1.8 1.6 3.0 .8
.49 Gilbert Arenas 23.8 4.3 5.3 3.1 1.7 3.3 .2

.50 Michael Jordan 31.2 6.5 5.1 2.6 2.3 2.7 .8
.52 Dwyane Wade 27.9 5.2 6.1 2.5 1.8 3.7 .9
.52 Allen Iverson 25.1 3.5 5.6 1.8 2.0 3.2 .2
.57 Manu Ginobili 23.3 5.6 4.7 3.0 1.9 2.7 .4

Now for someone completely different --
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Howard,Dwight 23.9 14.5 1.3 3.5 1.2 3.6 2.3
.17 Dwight Howard 20.7 14.2 1.4 3.4 .9 3.1 2.2
.34 Moses Malone 21.0 13.2 1.3 2.6 .9 3.3 1.4
.37 Patrick Ewing 23.0 11.0 2.0 3.7 1.0 3.1 2.6

.52 George Mikan 26.6 13.1 2.9 4.4 1.3 3.6 2.0
.54 Bob Pettit 24.9 11.7 2.8 3.1 1.3 3.3 1.8
.54 Yao Ming 25.6 11.1 1.8 3.7 .4 3.0 2.1
.55 Hakeem Olajuwon 22.9 11.6 2.6 3.7 1.8 3.1 3.2
Mikan was a beast! He once scored something like 84% of his team's points in a game (16/19?). Pre-shot clock.
Stl and Blk are made up for years before 1974, TO before '78.

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Rose,Derrick 26.0 4.7 7.7 1.7 1.0 3.4 .6
.37 Dwyane Wade 27.9 5.2 6.1 2.5 1.8 3.7 .9
.47 Oscar Robertson 21.9 5.3 8.0 2.6 2.0 3.4 .7
.52 Lebron James 28.8 7.2 6.2 1.8 1.6 3.0 .8

.57 Allen Iverson 25.1 3.5 5.6 1.8 2.0 3.2 .2
.64 Tracy McGrady 24.0 6.6 5.1 2.0 1.4 2.5 1.0
.66 Jerry West 24.8 4.2 6.0 2.6 2.7 3.3 .9
.66 Kobe Bryant 27.0 5.5 4.5 2.7 1.5 2.9 .6
Rose is in territory new to him.

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Nowitzki,Dirk 27.3 8.2 2.6 2.6 .7 2.2 .8
.09 Dirk Nowitzki 25.7 9.1 2.6 2.6 .9 1.9 1.0
.27 Dominique Wilkins 24.7 7.0 2.5 2.0 1.3 2.6 .6
.35 Carmelo Anthony 25.1 6.5 2.8 3.1 1.2 3.1 .4

.46 Paul Arizin 23.2 6.3 2.3 3.7 1.1 2.6 .9
.46 George Yardley 21.9 7.7 2.0 3.3 1.0 2.6 1.2
.48 Karl Malone 27.1 10.9 3.5 3.1 1.4 3.0 .8
.52 Chris Bosh 21.3 9.8 1.9 2.6 .8 2.2 1.2

Dirk is most Dirklike so far; or more like previous self.
The career numbers do not contain this season.
Yardley was the first player to score 2000 in a season.
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Last edited by Mike G on Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:52 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Griffin,Blake 21.6 13.3 3.0 2.8 .7 2.6 .6
.11 Carlos Boozer 21.0 12.7 2.5 3.5 1.1 2.5 .5
.28 Charles Barkley 22.8 12.4 3.8 3.1 1.6 3.2 .8
.29 Brad Daugherty 19.6 10.1 3.6 2.7 .8 2.8 .8

.31 Walt Bellamy 18.4 11.0 2.3 3.4 .8 2.5 .7
.32 Zach Randolph 20.5 11.2 1.8 2.8 .9 2.6 .3
.40 Jeff Ruland 19.9 11.3 3.3 4.0 .8 4.0 .9
.48 Kevin Garnett 21.5 11.6 4.3 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.6
The new kid is the best rebounder of the bunch, so far. But these are career rates, and guys cool it on the boards after a while.
Bellamy's Stl/TO/Blk are based on his late years' stats, not affected by any reputation.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Love,Kevin 19.7 15.7 2.1 2.2 .6 2.3 .3
.48 Carlos Boozer 21.0 12.7 2.5 3.5 1.1 2.5 .5
.49 Zach Randolph 20.5 11.2 1.8 2.8 .9 2.6 .3
.69 Walt Bellamy 18.4 11.0 2.3 3.4 .8 2.5 .7
.79 Moses Malone 21.0 13.2 1.3 2.6 .9 3.3 1.4
.88 Swen Nater 14.1 13.6 2.0 3.7 .6 2.9 .7

Boozer doesn't resemble either Love or Griffin, but whatever. Big rebounders who don't block shots.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Duncan,Tim 18.1 12.2 4.0 2.2 .9 2.2 2.5
.32 Jerry Lucas 15.5 11.9 3.1 2.8 1.4 2.6 1.8
.33 Kevin Garnett 21.5 11.6 4.3 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.6
.42 Bill Walton 15.7 12.8 4.0 3.5 1.0 3.6 2.7

.42 Derrick Coleman 17.9 10.3 2.8 2.9 .8 2.8 1.5
.44 Elton Brand 20.5 10.4 2.5 3.1 .9 2.4 2.0
.46 Pau Gasol 21.0 9.5 3.1 2.4 .6 2.4 1.8
.50 Larry Nance 18.3 9.0 2.7 3.2 1.0 2.0 2.4
Tim used to be a much bigger scorer.
Note that he's better than Coleman at everything, but not by a lot at any.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Westbrook,Russel 22.3 5.6 8.5 2.5 1.9 3.7 .4
.06 Oscar Robertson 21.9 5.3 8.0 2.6 2.0 3.4 .7
.29 Chris Paul 21.5 5.0 8.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 .1
.33 Bob Cousy 19.1 4.1 7.8 2.5 2.4 3.0 .4

.33 Magic Johnson 19.4 7.5 10.4 2.4 1.9 3.9 .4
.37 Steve Francis 19.2 6.0 6.3 3.2 1.5 3.5 .4
.44 Isiah Thomas 18.4 3.7 8.8 3.1 2.0 3.8 .3
.45 Kevin Johnson 19.0 3.6 9.0 2.3 1.5 3.3 .3
Hoo-wee, that's very close!
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Stoudemire,Amare 24.5 9.1 2.9 3.6 .9 3.5 2.3
.15 Kareem AbdulJabbar 24.7 10.6 3.4 3.1 1.0 3.0 2.7
.15 Bob McAdoo 22.5 9.9 2.3 3.6 1.1 3.3 1.7
.16 Neil Johnston 23.8 10.2 2.8 3.4 1.3 3.1 1.6

.22 Patrick Ewing 23.0 11.0 2.0 3.7 1.0 3.1 2.6
.26 Bob Pettit 24.9 11.7 2.8 3.1 1.3 3.3 1.8
.30 Bob Lanier 20.9 10.5 3.3 3.5 1.2 3.0 1.7
.32 Dolph Schayes 21.0 10.1 3.1 3.6 1.4 2.9 1.6
Amare' is passing and blocking more than usual. In fact, more like these guys.
Preponderance of pre-74 players his indicates Stl/TO/Blk are just about par considering his other rates.
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kjb



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 865
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 10:25 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Not a star, but what says your statistical doppleganger machine about Nick Young?

And what's the official name of your "similars" machine? I'd like to use the info for a blog entry I'm doing about Young at the Wash Post.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:56 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
It's the Euclidean Similizer, and this is unusual to compare season rates with career rates. But it occurred to me that some players may be having 'breakout' seasons that are going to end up being close to their career rates.
And so, it's a "what if" situation. Blake Griffin may be the next Barkley, and Derrick Rose may be the 2nd Oscar.

It's a bit dicier for a 29 mpg player such as Nick Young. But he's among my Most Improved, so maybe he'll stick. In which case ...
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Young,Nick 20.1 3.4 1.3 2.5 .8 1.5 .3

.15 Dale Ellis 18.8 4.4 1.7 2.5 1.0 1.8 .2
.18 Kiki Vandeweghe 21.2 4.0 2.1 2.3 .7 1.9 .4
.29 Glen Rice 20.1 4.9 2.2 2.5 1.0 1.8 .3
.31 Jeff Malone 20.1 3.0 2.5 2.1 .7 1.9 .1
.35 Peja Stojakovic 20.1 5.3 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.5 .2

.40 Allan Houston 20.8 3.4 2.7 2.6 .7 2.3 .2
.45 Dell Curry 17.1 3.8 2.6 2.5 1.4 1.8 .3
.45 Cazzie Russell 18.0 4.0 2.7 2.7 1.2 2.1 .4
.47 Michael Redd 22.7 4.6 2.3 1.9 1.0 1.8 .1
.51 Wally Szczerbiak 18.1 5.0 2.7 2.5 .7 1.8 .3


Ha -- I expected to see Jeff Malone. And due to Young's nearly nonexistent assist rate, he resembles as many forwards as guards. Non-rebounding forwards, that is.

How one-dimensional is Nick Young? If I insert him among my All-time 650 'substantial' careers, these are the lowest in my 'versatility index':
Code:
.52 Young,Nick (2011 only)
.56 Chris Dudley
.57 Mark West
.57 Mark Eaton
.57 Eddy Curry
.58 Greg Ostertag
.58 Samuel Dalembert
.58 Jeff Malone
.58 Steve Kerr

VI = (Sco*(Reb+Blk)*(Ast+Stl))^(1/2)/T
where T is the sum of the others (-TO)

Jeff Malone's lowest Ast/36 was 1.8, his last year in Utah. A veritable passing whiz next to Nick Young.
I see Young has had picked up his assists of late. Good for him.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:54 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Randolph,Zach 20.6 14.1 1.6 2.2 .7 1.9 .4
.27 Zach Randolph 20.5 11.2 1.8 2.8 .9 2.6 .3
.38 Carlos Boozer 21.0 12.7 2.5 3.5 1.1 2.5 .5
.54 Walt Bellamy 18.4 11.0 2.3 3.4 .8 2.5 .7

.59 Moses Malone 21.0 13.2 1.3 2.6 .9 3.3 1.4
.67 Chris Bosh 21.3 9.8 1.9 2.6 .8 2.2 1.2
.75 Al Jefferson 18.9 11.7 1.2 3.5 .9 2.0 1.6
.77 Drew Gooden 15.8 11.2 1.3 3.5 .9 2.1 .9


Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Gasol,Pau 19.1 10.9 4.2 2.2 .7 1.8 1.9
.22 Pau Gasol 21.0 9.5 3.1 2.4 .6 2.4 1.8
.27 Kevin Garnett 21.5 11.6 4.3 2.6 1.3 2.4 1.6
.35 Derrick Coleman 17.9 10.3 2.8 2.9 .8 2.8 1.5

.37 Elton Brand 20.5 10.4 2.5 3.1 .9 2.4 2.0
.42 Brad Daugherty 19.6 10.1 3.6 2.7 .8 2.8 .8
.43 Chris Webber 20.4 9.9 4.2 3.3 1.4 2.8 1.4
.43 Larry Nance 18.3 9.0 2.7 3.2 1.0 2.0 2.4


Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Paul,Chris 19.3 4.6 9.6 2.6 2.8 2.5 .1
.12 Chris Paul 21.5 5.0 8.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 .1
.31 Tim Hardaway 18.3 3.6 8.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 .2
.33 Bob Cousy 19.1 4.1 7.8 2.5 2.4 3.0 .4

.40 Isiah Thomas 18.4 3.7 8.8 3.1 2.0 3.8 .3
.40 Gary Payton 17.5 4.4 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.4 .2
.42 Kevin Johnson 19.0 3.6 9.0 2.3 1.5 3.3 .3
.43 Terrell Brandon 17.6 4.0 7.7 2.2 1.9 2.3 .4


Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Williams,Deron 22.4 4.0 9.3 2.8 1.1 3.2 .2
.18 Deron Williams 19.1 3.7 8.1 2.8 1.1 3.1 .2
.23 Kevin Johnson 19.0 3.6 9.0 2.3 1.5 3.3 .3
.24 Stephon Marbury 19.6 3.1 7.7 2.4 1.2 3.0 .1

.27 Steve Nash 18.9 3.5 8.8 2.0 .8 3.3 .1
.28 Sam Cassell 19.5 4.0 7.1 3.3 1.2 2.9 .2
.33 Tim Hardaway 18.3 3.6 8.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 .2
.37 Isiah Thomas 18.4 3.7 8.8 3.1 2.0 3.8 .3


Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Durant,Kevin 26.9 6.3 2.8 1.9 1.0 3.1 .9
.14 Dominique Wilkins 24.7 7.0 2.5 2.0 1.3 2.6 .6
.26 Carmelo Anthony 25.1 6.5 2.8 3.1 1.2 3.1 .4
.30 Paul Pierce 24.6 6.4 3.8 2.9 1.5 3.0 .6

.31 George Gervin 24.3 5.5 2.6 3.3 1.3 3.2 1.1
.40 Kobe Bryant 27.0 5.5 4.5 2.7 1.5 2.9 .6
.41 Vince Carter 24.4 5.7 4.2 3.0 1.2 2.3 .7
.43 Adrian Dantley 24.7 5.9 2.8 2.8 1.0 3.0 .2


Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Ginobili,Manu 23.5 4.8 5.6 2.1 2.1 2.8 .5
.16 Manu Ginobili 23.3 5.6 4.7 3.0 1.9 2.7 .4
.19 Jerry West 24.8 4.2 6.0 2.6 2.7 3.3 .9
.19 Rick Barry 22.1 5.5 4.5 3.0 2.1 2.8 .5

.20 Gilbert Arenas 23.8 4.3 5.3 3.1 1.7 3.3 .2
.22 Allen Iverson 25.1 3.5 5.6 1.8 2.0 3.2 .2
.30 Kobe Bryant 27.0 5.5 4.5 2.7 1.5 2.9 .6
.30 John Havlicek 19.5 5.2 4.7 2.7 1.8 2.6 .7

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erivera7



Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 184
Location: Chicago, IL

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 5:13 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
This is pretty cool, Mike. Thanks for sharing.

Is it possible you could do these similarities for stars in previous years?
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deepak



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Posts: 665


PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 6:35 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
How did you arrive at steals and blocks and turnovers for players from the 50s/60s?
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:36 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
erivera7 wrote:
Is it possible you could do these similarities for stars in previous years?

I have done these for a few years on another forum.
2010 - http://apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3157
2009 - http://apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2337
2008 - http://apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1838 -- just a handful
2007 - http://apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=398

deepak wrote:
How did you arrive at steals and blocks and turnovers for players from the 50s/60s?

Very crudely: Per36 --
Stl = sqrt(Ast) - 0.4
Blk = sqrt(Reb) - 1.6
TO = .08*Sco + .07*Reb + .16*Ast + .05*Stl + .10*Blk - .005*Min/G

The advantage of having something other than zero in these categories, of course, is that we can at least imagine comparable players across eras.
The drawback is that if a modern player happens to have Stl/Blk/TO close to what these estimators produce, he'll be guessed to be similar to a lot of old-timers.

Sometimes I list most similar player-season from each decade.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:06 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Moving toward borderline All-Star types.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Nash,Steve 18.6 4.3 11.9 1.2 .7 3.9 .0
.41 Steve Nash 18.9 3.5 8.8 2.0 .8 3.3 .1
.68 Kevin Johnson 19.0 3.6 9.0 2.3 1.5 3.3 .3
.73 Mark Price 19.0 3.2 7.9 1.6 1.4 3.0 .1

.88 Tim Hardaway 18.3 3.6 8.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 .2
.89 Deron Williams 19.1 3.7 8.1 2.8 1.1 3.1 .2
.90 Stephon Marbury 19.6 3.1 7.7 2.4 1.2 3.0 .1
.96 Rod Strickland 15.0 4.5 8.6 2.2 1.7 3.1 .2

The Nashster is now the most-unique player seen thus far. Extremely high Ast, along with high TO and extremely low PF, Stl, Blk.
This is the highest Reb rate he's ever had.

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Pierce,Paul 22.8 6.2 3.6 3.0 1.1 1.9 .6
.09 Vince Carter 24.4 5.7 4.2 3.0 1.2 2.3 .7
.12 Alex English 21.3 5.9 3.6 2.9 1.0 2.7 .8
.15 Mark Aguirre 22.2 6.0 3.4 3.3 .9 2.9 .4

.19 Paul Pierce 24.6 6.4 3.8 2.9 1.5 3.0 .6
.21 Marques Johnson 20.4 7.5 3.6 2.7 1.4 2.5 .8
.21 Ed Macauley 20.4 6.4 3.4 2.6 1.4 2.6 .9
.24 James Worthy 19.3 5.8 3.1 2.4 1.3 2.2 .7
Classic SF -- 48 similars within .50 diff.

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Millsap,Paul 19.6 9.4 2.6 3.8 1.5 1.6 1.0
.11 Terry Cummings 19.3 9.3 2.2 4.0 1.3 2.3 .7
.20 Dan Issel 20.7 8.5 2.2 3.1 1.1 2.3 .6
.23 Rasheed Wallace 17.7 8.1 2.1 3.4 1.1 1.7 1.5

.24 Josh Howard 18.5 7.6 1.9 3.1 1.2 1.8 .7
.24 Vern Mikkelsen 18.2 8.5 2.4 4.6 1.2 2.5 1.3
.24 Bailey Howell 19.1 8.2 2.0 4.2 1.0 2.4 1.3
.25 David West 19.1 8.8 1.9 2.9 .8 1.9 .9
The classic PF -- 58 players within .50 diff.

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 West,David 22.1 8.2 2.5 3.1 .9 2.0 .9
.08 Dan Issel 20.7 8.5 2.2 3.1 1.1 2.3 .6
.09 George Yardley 21.9 7.7 2.0 3.3 1.0 2.6 1.2
.12 Shareef AbdurRahim 20.1 8.5 2.8 3.0 1.1 2.7 .8

.16 Chris Bosh 21.3 9.8 1.9 2.6 .8 2.2 1.2
.18 David West 19.1 8.8 1.9 2.9 .8 1.9 .9
.19 Dirk Nowitzki 25.7 9.1 2.6 2.6 .9 1.9 1.0
.21 Paul Arizin 23.2 6.3 2.3 3.7 1.1 2.6 .9
West has moved into rather elite Sco/Reb territory.

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Smith,Josh 18.0 10.1 3.8 2.9 1.4 2.8 2.0
.14 Chris Webber 20.4 9.9 4.2 3.3 1.4 2.8 1.4
.18 Bob Lanier 20.9 10.5 3.3 3.5 1.2 3.0 1.7
.18 Derrick Coleman 17.9 10.3 2.8 2.9 .8 2.8 1.5

.20 Arvydas Sabonis 18.3 10.8 3.0 3.9 1.1 2.4 1.4
.21 Jerry Lucas 15.5 11.9 3.1 2.8 1.4 2.6 1.8
.22 Dolph Schayes 21.0 10.1 3.1 3.6 1.4 2.9 1.6
.26 Josh Smith 15.5 8.9 2.7 3.2 1.4 2.7 2.5
Smoove's career keeps evolving. More scoring and rebounding, less shotblocking.
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kjb



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 865
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 10:20 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Thanks for the info on Nick Young. Good to know that Young is one of the least versatile players ever. Smile

The consensus among Wizards fans seems to be that Young has arrived as a player. I feel like Crash Davis in Bull Durham. Yeah, he scores, and he will play defense a bit. But he doesn't do anything else.
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acollard



Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 56
Location: MA

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 3:47 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Thanks for that!

I did some Euclidean distance similarities for teams this year in an old Daily Thunder post.

Just curious as to your reasoning for /36min stats instead of /100 possessions, which could help compare players from different eras and differently paced teams. Also, FG% 3PT% and other scoring efficiency metrics seem like they'd be easy to add, and would help when comparing players. Westbrook and Paul have similar normal stats, but Russ has a much different scoring efficiency compared to Paul, and that makes a huge difference.

Each player's third season, for example: http://bkref.com/tiny/i679G
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3604
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:56 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Per36, unless I specify 'raw' or 'undadjusted' refers to per 36 minutes, per 100 points per team, per 44 rebounds per team. These are the standards (historic norms) to which these numbers are scaled.

The numbers don't care if they were accrued in high-pace and low-efficiency, or high-eff and low-pace. Just as rebounds as a % of all rebounds are indicative of rebounding ability, points as a % of all points are indicative of scoring ability.

While it's arguable that high% shooting is better than lesser % shooting, it's also arguable that just being able to score in a defensive milieu, when others can't, is worth something: 45% is very good when others are shooting 40%.

So 15 pts/36 Min/100 pts/team is average. Whether your coach pursues a high pace or high efficiency, it's the fraction of points you score that determines your effectiveness.

Shooting % is built into the scoring (Sco) portion of these per36 rates. But the more factors you include in these similarities, the less each factor can count. Since I've endeavored to capture production, I don't care about the means of achieving these productions.

It's quite possible that if you traded Paul for Westbrook, CP would shoot more, at a lower %, and vice versa. Both their Sco stats would likely not change much.
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acollard



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
apologies! that explains a lot, and makes a lot of sense.
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acollard



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:18 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:


The numbers don't care if they were accrued in high-pace and low-efficiency, or high-eff and low-pace. Just as rebounds as a % of all rebounds are indicative of rebounding ability, points as a % of all points are indicative of scoring ability.



Whoa wait... I just read it again. How does that make sense? If you're on a team with other bad scorers, that would effect the per 100 pts calculation. Also, shouldn't we care if someone scores high-pace low efficiency compared to high efficiency and low pace? Those are fundamentally different, almost the opposite in fact.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 22, 2011 7:57 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Good point, and you've caught me oversimplifying the explanation.
I've refined Reb% to be closer to % of opponent rebounds. Even though you aren't literally grabbing the opponents' rebounds, your rebounds (a number) are still a known fraction of that total.

The theory is that rebounds grabbed by your teammates are not 'available'; you should be vying for those the opposition is vying for.

Same deal for scoring. Scoring 20 in a 100-90 win is better than scoring 20 for the losers. One is .200 of the opponent total, and the other is .222 .

Basically, every player's Sco rate includes the factor (100/OppPPG).

Yes, a coach should prefer high pace or high efficiency players to match his style. Different players will flourish or languish, depending. David Lee isn't flourishing in GS, for example. Amare' loves NY, etc.

Michael Beasley shoots .530, averaging 22.3 Pts per 36 min. for a team that allows 108.4 ppg.
David West shoots .562, 19.5 Pts/36, for a team giving up 91.4 .

Given that these team PPG allowed are what the NBA at large scores in the games these guys are in, it makes some sense to scale their scoring to these parameters.

This adjustment for West is = 19.5 * 100/91.4 = 21.3 Pts/36/100ppg
For Beasley, its 22.3 * 100/108.4 = 20.6

In the simplest terms, I'd expect West to outscore Beasley in a game between their teams. I'd say he's the better scorer vs anyone.
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 746


PostPosted: Sat Jan 22, 2011 6:30 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
So Kobe Bryant's most similars include himself, Lebron James, Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade but also Manu Ginobili, Gilbert Arenas and Allen Iverson. Yeah that mix of names sound about right for him for this year.


Bryant, James and Wade are all top similars to each other (naturally for one, then for all). Rose has all three right now too. I haven't really followed him much or gotten on his hype train but this similarity helps explain the hype train in several ways- top level performance and this specific type of performance though he is doing officially and full-time at PG.


Stoudemire's most similars are all throwbacks from earlier times. Lots of others listed here only have 1 or 2 recent most similar.
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acollard



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 11:53 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
Michael Beasley shoots .530, averaging 22.3 Pts per 36 min. for a team that allows 108.4 ppg.
David West shoots .562, 19.5 Pts/36, for a team giving up 91.4 .

Given that these team PPG allowed are what the NBA at large scores in the games these guys are in, it makes some sense to scale their scoring to these parameters.

This adjustment for West is = 19.5 * 100/91.4 = 21.3 Pts/36/100ppg
For Beasley, its 22.3 * 100/108.4 = 20.6

In the simplest terms, I'd expect West to outscore Beasley in a game between their teams. I'd say he's the better scorer vs anyone.


I apologize if this method has been hashed out elsewhere, but it still bothers me that defense is factored into the Sco equation. OppPPG is affected a lot by team defense, and shouldn't have an impact on how well a player scores. The Bulls and Raptors play at almost the same pace, but the Raptors give up almost 13ppg more than the Bulls. I don't see the rationale for having every Raptors player's Sco rating 14% lower.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 12:47 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Toronto also averages 3 PPG more than the Bulls, in those same possessions.
So, either Tor has 'better' scorers than Chi, or the average Chi player is putting more energy into defense, or some of each.

If you just look at their points per possession, you might guess that Tor players are going to outscore those of Chi when they meet. But adjusting by this 14%, you arrive at the conclusion that Chi will tend to score 11% more than Tor.

Maybe if these teams traded coaches, Chi would have avg scores of 107-101 (rather than 97-91), and Tor would avg 90-95 (rather than 100-105). The Bulls would still be 11 PPG better than Tor, AND they'd be seen to have 'better' scorers.
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kjb



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 1:49 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:

VI = (Sco*(Reb+Blk)*(Ast+Stl))^(1/2)/T
where T is the sum of the others (-TO)



What do you mean by "others"? And (-TO)? I'm want to run your VI for the league this year to see where Young ranks.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 6:33 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Meant by this is T = the sum of Sco+Reb+Ast+Stl+Blk-TO rates

Since you cannot possibly calculate some of these, I'll just tell you that of the top 360 players in minutes (12 per team), there are 11 players with lower VI than Young: Dampier, JGraham, Okafor, Kwame, Morrow, Ibaka, RLopez, Meeks, Anthony, BHaywood, Diogu.
Of these, only Okafor has played more minutes than Nick Young.
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kjb



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 10:28 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Thanks again, Mike. You da man.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 7:57 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Continuing, with updated current stats.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Horford,Al 18.3 11.0 3.6 2.7 .8 1.5 1.2
.27 Brad Daugherty 19.6 10.1 3.6 2.7 .8 2.8 .8
.29 Arvydas Sabonis 18.3 10.8 3.0 3.9 1.1 2.4 1.4
.29 Derrick Coleman 17.9 10.3 2.8 2.9 .8 2.8 1.5

.30 Dave Cowens 16.1 11.9 3.5 3.8 1.1 2.2 .9
.36 Pau Gasol 21.0 9.5 3.1 2.4 .6 2.4 1.8
.36 Brad Miller 14.9 9.4 3.4 3.5 .9 2.0 .9
.36 Jack Sikma 16.1 10.7 3.2 3.9 1.1 2.5 1.0
Playing mostly C, Horford resembles mostly centers.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Anthony,Carmelo 23.5 8.6 3.3 2.8 .9 2.9 .7
.18 Shareef AbdurRahim 20.1 8.5 2.8 3.0 1.1 2.7 .8
.22 Marques Johnson 20.4 7.5 3.6 2.7 1.4 2.5 .8
.24 Dirk Nowitzki 25.7 9.1 2.6 2.6 .9 1.9 1.0
.24 Carmelo Anthony 25.1 6.5 2.8 3.1 1.2 3.1 .4

.24 Glenn Robinson 21.1 6.6 2.8 2.7 1.2 3.1 .6
.25 Paul Pierce 24.6 6.4 3.8 2.9 1.5 3.0 .6
.25 Brad Daugherty 19.6 10.1 3.6 2.7 .8 2.8 .8
.26 Dan Issel 20.7 8.5 2.2 3.1 1.1 2.3 .6
.26 Dominique Wilkins 24.7 7.0 2.5 2.0 1.3 2.6 .6
Melo's Reb, Ast, and Blk are up this year.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Parker,Tony 20.8 3.7 8.3 1.9 1.5 2.8 .0
.13 Mark Price 19.0 3.2 7.9 1.6 1.4 3.0 .1
.15 Stephon Marbury 19.6 3.1 7.7 2.4 1.2 3.0 .1
.19 Tim Hardaway 18.3 3.6 8.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 .2
.20 Steve Nash 18.9 3.5 8.8 2.0 .8 3.3 .1

.21 Tony Parker 21.2 3.6 6.2 2.1 1.0 2.8 .1
.22 Kevin Johnson 19.0 3.6 9.0 2.3 1.5 3.3 .3
.26 Chauncey Billups 20.3 3.6 6.4 2.3 1.2 2.3 .2
.27 Chris Paul 21.5 5.0 8.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 .1
.28 Deron Williams 19.1 3.7 8.1 2.8 1.1 3.1 .2
Other than the enhanced Ast, he looks just like Parker.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Scola,Luis 20.5 9.6 2.8 3.4 .8 2.1 .8
.09 Dan Issel 20.7 8.5 2.2 3.1 1.1 2.3 .6
.10 Shareef AbdurRahim 20.1 8.5 2.8 3.0 1.1 2.7 .8
.13 Terry Cummings 19.3 9.3 2.2 4.0 1.3 2.3 .7
.14 Walt Bellamy 18.4 11.0 2.3 3.4 .8 2.5 .7

.15 Brad Daugherty 19.6 10.1 3.6 2.7 .8 2.8 .8
.17 David West 19.1 8.8 1.9 2.9 .8 1.9 .9
.18 Chris Bosh 21.3 9.8 1.9 2.6 .8 2.2 1.2
.18 Mehmet Okur 17.8 9.8 2.0 3.5 .7 1.9 .9
.20 Cliff Robinson 18.2 9.9 2.2 3.5 1.2 2.9 .8
That's Cliff R I.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Aldridge,Lamarcus 20.8 9.2 1.9 2.7 1.0 2.1 1.1
.03 Chris Bosh 21.3 9.8 1.9 2.6 .8 2.2 1.2
.06 David West 19.1 8.8 1.9 2.9 .8 1.9 .9
.11 Dan Issel 20.7 8.5 2.2 3.1 1.1 2.3 .6
.13 Spencer Haywood 19.6 9.6 1.8 3.0 .7 2.9 1.3

.14 George Yardley 21.9 7.7 2.0 3.3 1.0 2.6 1.2
.19 Shareef AbdurRahim 20.1 8.5 2.8 3.0 1.1 2.7 .8
.22 Mehmet Okur 17.8 9.8 2.0 3.5 .7 1.9 .9
.22 Terry Cummings 19.3 9.3 2.2 4.0 1.3 2.3 .7
.23 Keith Van Horn 18.7 8.1 1.9 3.4 .9 2.5 .6
That's Bosh's career average line. LA isn't in the 'alltime careers' database yet.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Bosh,Chris 20.9 8.9 2.2 2.4 .8 1.8 .7
.09 David West 19.1 8.8 1.9 2.9 .8 1.9 .9
.11 Chris Bosh 21.3 9.8 1.9 2.6 .8 2.2 1.2
.12 Dan Issel 20.7 8.5 2.2 3.1 1.1 2.3 .6
.17 Antawn Jamison 19.1 8.3 1.6 2.5 1.0 1.7 .4

.18 Cedric Ceballos 20.0 7.8 1.6 2.5 1.1 2.3 .4
.19 Rudy Tomjanovich 18.3 8.2 2.1 2.7 .7 1.8 .3
.22 Shareef AbdurRahim 20.1 8.5 2.8 3.0 1.1 2.7 .8
.24 Calvin Natt 18.6 7.8 2.2 2.6 1.0 2.4 .4
.26 Josh Howard 18.5 7.6 1.9 3.1 1.2 1.8 .7

Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Odom,Lamar 17.9 10.7 3.3 2.7 .6 2.0 .9
.14 Brad Daugherty 19.6 10.1 3.6 2.7 .8 2.8 .8
.19 Derrick Coleman 17.9 10.3 2.8 2.9 .8 2.8 1.5
.20 Walt Bellamy 18.4 11.0 2.3 3.4 .8 2.5 .7
.25 Mehmet Okur 17.8 9.8 2.0 3.5 .7 1.9 .9

.26 Dave Cowens 16.1 11.9 3.5 3.8 1.1 2.2 .9
.26 Brad Miller 14.9 9.4 3.4 3.5 .9 2.0 .9
.26 Lamar Odom 15.5 9.6 4.0 3.3 .9 2.7 1.0
.26 Arvydas Sabonis 18.3 10.8 3.0 3.9 1.1 2.4 1.4
.27 Jack Sikma 16.1 10.7 3.2 3.9 1.1 2.5 1.0
Odom's Sco and Reb are up, Ast, PF, TO, Stl are down.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3474
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 8:32 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Martin,Kevin 26.8 3.7 2.6 2.4 1.0 2.6 .2
.27 Reggie Miller 22.7 3.4 3.1 2.1 1.1 1.9 .2
.29 Ben Gordon 22.1 3.5 3.1 3.1 .9 2.7 .2
.32 Adrian Dantley 24.7 5.9 2.8 2.8 1.0 3.0 .2
.33 Ray Allen 22.5 4.6 3.6 2.3 1.2 2.3 .2

.35 Michael Redd 22.7 4.6 2.3 1.9 1.0 1.8 .1
.43 Allan Houston 20.8 3.4 2.7 2.6 .7 2.3 .2
.43 Mitch Richmond 21.4 4.2 3.5 2.7 1.3 2.8 .3
.45 Richard Hamilton 21.5 3.9 3.9 2.9 .9 2.5 .2
.46 Bill Sharman 21.1 3.4 3.2 3.0 1.4 2.4 .2
It's likely KM's scoring rate is near its career zenith. Most of these topped out in that range.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Jefferson,Al 17.3 10.4 1.8 3.2 .6 1.3 2.0
.25 Antonio McDyess 16.0 10.3 1.6 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.4
.28 Robert Parish 17.5 11.4 1.5 3.4 .9 2.5 1.8
.28 Zydrunas Ilgauskas 18.5 10.7 1.5 4.3 .6 2.4 2.1
.28 Al Jefferson 18.9 11.7 1.2 3.5 .9 2.0 1.6

.28 Jermaine O'Neal 19.0 10.1 1.9 3.7 .6 2.5 2.4
.29 Mehmet Okur 17.8 9.8 2.0 3.5 .7 1.9 .9
.29 Zelmo Beaty 17.2 9.3 1.6 4.0 .9 2.3 1.4
.30 Rasheed Wallace 17.7 8.1 2.1 3.4 1.1 1.7 1.5
.30 Larry Nance 18.3 9.0 2.7 3.2 1.0 2.0 2.4

Al's over the hill.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Bogut,Andrew 14.5 12.7 1.9 3.4 .7 1.8 2.9
.15 Dikembe Mutombo 13.0 12.7 1.3 3.3 .5 2.1 3.3
.19 Nate Thurmond 13.4 11.9 2.7 2.8 .6 2.4 2.6
.21 Marcus Camby 11.9 12.3 2.1 3.4 1.2 1.7 3.0
.22 Mel Daniels 14.5 11.5 1.7 3.8 .9 2.3 1.8

.25 Elmore Smith 14.2 10.7 1.6 3.9 1.0 2.6 3.5
.30 Emeka Okafor 15.0 12.3 0.8 3.3 .8 1.9 2.0
.38 Benoit Benjamin 13.7 9.8 1.6 3.6 .8 2.9 2.5
.39 Chris Kaman 14.4 10.9 1.4 3.7 .6 2.8 1.7
.39 Robert Parish 17.5 11.4 1.5 3.4 .9 2.5 1.8
Benoit! But seriously, that's some elite rebounding.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Johnson,Joe 21.4 4.6 5.2 1.7 .7 1.9 .1
.25 Tony Parker 21.2 3.6 6.2 2.1 1.0 2.8 .1
.27 Chauncey Billups 20.3 3.6 6.4 2.3 1.2 2.3 .2
.30 Ray Allen 22.5 4.6 3.6 2.3 1.2 2.3 .2
.31 Joe Johnson 17.9 4.4 4.0 2.0 1.0 2.2 .2

.34 Richard Hamilton 21.5 3.9 3.9 2.9 .9 2.5 .2
.36 Jamal Mashburn 19.0 5.6 4.2 2.5 1.0 2.6 .2
.42 Jason Terry 18.9 3.1 5.1 2.3 1.4 2.2 .2
.42 Rolando Blackman 19.0 3.8 3.2 1.8 .8 2.1 .3
.45 Geoff Petrie 19.5 2.6 4.3 2.3 .7 2.3 .1
Not having a great year, but JJ's Sco and Ast are up.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Hilario,Nene 18.1 9.2 2.6 3.8 1.2 2.1 .9
.07 Terry Cummings 19.3 9.3 2.2 4.0 1.3 2.3 .7
.11 Cliff Robinson 18.2 9.9 2.2 3.5 1.2 2.9 .8
.11 Vin Baker 16.8 9.0 2.2 3.6 .8 2.5 1.1
.11 Vern Mikkelsen 18.2 8.5 2.4 4.6 1.2 2.5 1.3

.12 Christian Laettner 16.2 8.6 3.1 3.8 1.3 2.7 .9
.14 Neal Walk 15.9 9.6 2.8 4.4 .9 2.4 .7
.14 Kenyon Martin 15.9 8.6 2.3 4.0 1.4 2.2 1.3
.14 Bailey Howell 19.1 8.2 2.0 4.2 1.0 2.4 1.3
.15 Xavier McDaniel 18.0 7.7 2.4 3.6 1.1 2.6 .6
Career Nene comes in at #16.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Gordon,Eric 23.6 3.3 3.8 2.1 1.2 2.5 .3
.10 Reggie Miller 22.7 3.4 3.1 2.1 1.1 1.9 .2
.14 World B Free 21.6 3.2 4.1 3.0 1.2 2.9 .3
.16 Mitch Richmond 21.4 4.2 3.5 2.7 1.3 2.8 .3
.16 Ray Allen 22.5 4.6 3.6 2.3 1.2 2.3 .2

.19 Richard Hamilton 21.5 3.9 3.9 2.9 .9 2.5 .2
.19 Ben Gordon 22.1 3.5 3.1 3.1 .9 2.7 .2
.19 Bill Sharman 21.1 3.4 3.2 3.0 1.4 2.4 .2
.21 Walter Davis 22.1 3.7 4.3 3.0 1.5 3.1 .2
.24 Jerry Stackhouse 20.2 4.0 4.0 2.2 1.0 3.2 .5

.24 Sam Jones 20.9 4.3 3.0 2.6 1.3 2.4 .5
.25 Earl Monroe 19.8 3.0 4.1 3.0 1.2 2.3 .3
.29 Allan Houston 20.8 3.4 2.7 2.6 .7 2.3 .2
.32 Otis Birdsong 19.3 3.5 3.5 3.0 1.4 2.5 .2
.35 David Thompson 22.6 4.3 3.3 3.0 1.1 3.1 .9
Some Hall of Famers here.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3474
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:06 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
A few more
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Rondo,Rajon 11.4 5.0 12.9 1.8 2.3 3.9 .2
.47 Mark Jackson 11.2 4.8 9.4 2.1 1.5 2.9 .1
.69 Jason Kidd 13.8 7.0 9.1 1.9 2.0 3.1 .3
.76 Johnny Moore 11.2 4.0 9.0 3.5 2.6 3.0 .3
.77 John Stockton 16.1 3.3 11.8 3.0 2.4 3.2 .2

.80 Rod Strickland 15.0 4.5 8.6 2.2 1.7 3.1 .2
.84 Jamaal Tinsley 12.1 4.3 8.3 3.4 2.0 3.4 .4
1.00 Brevin Knight 9.7 3.6 8.7 3.6 2.4 2.6 .2
1.00 John Bagley 10.4 3.5 7.5 2.2 1.5 3.0 .1
1.01 John Lucas 12.5 2.9 8.2 2.3 1.7 2.7 .1

Even the heaviest assist guys tend to get more points than assists.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Curry,Stephen 20.1 4.0 5.8 3.7 2.0 3.1 .3
.11 Dave Bing 18.9 3.4 5.9 3.0 2.0 2.6 .2
.15 Richie Guerin 17.3 4.1 5.3 3.7 1.9 2.5 .4
.17 Charlie Scott 18.3 3.6 4.7 3.8 1.4 3.4 .3
.20 Sam Cassell 19.5 4.0 7.1 3.3 1.2 2.9 .2

.20 Reggie Theus 18.1 3.6 6.2 3.2 1.3 3.7 .2
.22 Baron Davis 17.7 4.3 7.3 3.0 2.0 2.9 .5
.23 Gail Goodrich 19.0 2.9 4.8 3.1 1.5 3.0 .2
.23 Gilbert Arenas 23.8 4.3 5.3 3.1 1.7 3.3 .2
.24 Ray Williams 17.1 4.5 6.6 4.1 2.2 4.0 .4
.24 Pete Maravich 22.1 3.8 5.2 2.9 1.4 4.1 .3
The Pistol!
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Granger,Danny 21.6 5.6 2.7 2.9 1.1 2.6 .9
.08 Alex English 21.3 5.9 3.6 2.9 1.0 2.7 .8
.11 Jack Twyman 20.3 5.7 2.5 3.9 1.2 2.4 .8
.11 Chet Walker 19.5 6.3 2.2 2.9 1.1 2.3 .9
.11 Glenn Robinson 21.1 6.6 2.8 2.7 1.2 3.1 .6

.11 Ed Macauley 20.4 6.4 3.4 2.6 1.4 2.6 .9
.12 Paul Arizin 23.2 6.3 2.3 3.7 1.1 2.6 .9
.14 George Gervin 24.3 5.5 2.6 3.3 1.3 3.2 1.1
.14 James Worthy 19.3 5.8 3.1 2.4 1.3 2.2 .7
.15 David Thompson 22.6 4.3 3.3 3.0 1.1 3.1 .9
A whole bunch of Hall of Famers. And they're calling this a down year for Danny.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Lopez,Brook 21.6 6.7 1.3 3.4 .7 2.5 1.6
.16 George Yardley 21.9 7.7 2.0 3.3 1.0 2.6 1.2
.21 Danny Granger 20.1 5.9 1.9 3.4 1.1 2.1 1.1
.24 Bob Love 19.5 6.0 1.6 3.0 .9 2.2 .8
.24 Kevin McHale 20.8 8.6 1.8 3.3 .4 2.2 2.0

.25 Rik Smits 19.7 8.3 1.8 4.6 .6 2.4 1.6
.29 Paul Arizin 23.2 6.3 2.3 3.7 1.1 2.6 .9
.31 Bailey Howell 19.1 8.2 2.0 4.2 1.0 2.4 1.3
.32 Chet Walker 19.5 6.3 2.2 2.9 1.1 2.3 .9
.33 Eddy Curry 20.1 7.8 0.8 4.2 .4 3.2 1.0
Odd mix of SF, PF, and C who don't rebound much.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Brand,Elton 16.5 9.5 1.5 3.3 1.3 1.6 1.2
.07 Donyell Marshall 15.1 9.3 1.9 3.1 1.1 1.8 1.2
.12 Antonio McDyess 16.0 10.3 1.6 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.4
.13 Shawn Marion 17.6 9.7 1.9 2.5 1.7 1.6 1.3
.15 Rasheed Wallace 17.7 8.1 2.1 3.4 1.1 1.7 1.5

.17 Zelmo Beaty 17.2 9.3 1.6 4.0 .9 2.3 1.4
.17 Drew Gooden 15.8 11.2 1.3 3.5 .9 2.1 .9
.18 Joe Smith 14.3 9.0 1.3 3.9 .8 1.7 1.1
.18 Armon Gilliam 16.5 8.7 1.4 2.7 .9 2.3 .8
.19 Willie Naulls 16.9 8.0 1.8 3.8 .9 2.2 1.2
Sort of a 2nd-tier bunch.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Miller,Andre 15.8 4.7 7.9 2.1 1.8 2.8 .1
.08 Rod Strickland 15.0 4.5 8.6 2.2 1.7 3.1 .2
.10 Andre Miller 16.1 4.7 7.3 2.6 1.4 2.8 .2
.13 Damon Stoudamire 15.0 4.2 7.1 2.2 1.2 2.6 .1
.13 Terry Porter 15.7 3.9 6.6 2.2 1.5 2.6 .2

.16 Kenny Anderson 14.5 3.7 7.3 2.7 1.7 2.4 .2
.16 Gary Payton 17.5 4.4 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.4 .2
.20 Tim Hardaway 18.3 3.6 8.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 .2
.21 Michael Adams 14.9 3.3 6.6 2.1 1.9 2.5 .1
.21 Terrell Brandon 17.6 4.0 7.7 2.2 1.9 2.3 .4
Several All-Stars here.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Harris,Devin 18.6 3.1 7.8 2.9 1.2 3.3 .1
.05 Stephon Marbury 19.6 3.1 7.7 2.4 1.2 3.0 .1
.07 Deron Williams 19.1 3.7 8.1 2.8 1.1 3.1 .2
.09 Nate Archibald 18.3 2.3 7.3 2.4 1.2 3.2 .1
.10 Tim Hardaway 18.3 3.6 8.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 .2

.14 Sam Cassell 19.5 4.0 7.1 3.3 1.2 2.9 .2
.15 Kevin Johnson 19.0 3.6 9.0 2.3 1.5 3.3 .3
.16 Steve Nash 18.9 3.5 8.8 2.0 .8 3.3 .1
.17 Reggie Theus 18.1 3.6 6.2 3.2 1.3 3.7 .2
.20 Mark Price 19.0 3.2 7.9 1.6 1.4 3.0 .1
This is DWilliams before this year. And Nash.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Ellis,Monta 21.2 3.0 4.5 2.5 2.0 3.0 .2
.10 Walter Davis 22.1 3.7 4.3 3.0 1.5 3.1 .2
.13 World B Free 21.6 3.2 4.1 3.0 1.2 2.9 .3
.14 Gail Goodrich 19.0 2.9 4.8 3.1 1.5 3.0 .2
.15 Paul Westphal 20.4 2.5 5.6 2.8 1.7 3.2 .4

.16 Fred Brown 18.6 3.5 4.2 2.7 1.8 2.3 .3
.19 Earl Monroe 19.8 3.0 4.1 3.0 1.2 2.3 .3
.20 Otis Birdsong 19.3 3.5 3.5 3.0 1.4 2.5 .2
.21 Jason Terry 18.9 3.1 5.1 2.3 1.4 2.2 .2
.21 Dave Bing 18.9 3.4 5.9 3.0 2.0 2.6 .2
.22 Bill Sharman 21.1 3.4 3.2 3.0 1.4 2.4 .2
Love a good throwback player. Actually, some of these guys also scored 25 ppg in 115-110 contests.
Code:
diff career per36 Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
2011 Nelson,Jameer 16.6 3.7 8.6 3.6 1.0 2.9 .0
.26 Deron Williams 19.1 3.7 8.1 2.8 1.1 3.1 .2
.28 Scott Skiles 13.3 3.2 7.7 2.8 1.0 3.1 .1
.29 Sam Cassell 19.5 4.0 7.1 3.3 1.2 2.9 .2
.31 Norm Nixon 14.7 2.7 7.8 2.7 1.6 3.2 .1

.32 Tim Hardaway 18.3 3.6 8.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 .2
.32 Andre Miller 16.1 4.7 7.3 2.6 1.4 2.8 .2
.34 Damon Stoudamire 15.0 4.2 7.1 2.2 1.2 2.6 .1
.35 Stephon Marbury 19.6 3.1 7.7 2.4 1.2 3.0 .1
.35 Steve Nash 18.9 3.5 8.8 2.0 .8 3.3 .1

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greyberger



Joined: 27 Sep 2010
Posts: 34


PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:58 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
2011 Rondo, Rajon
.47 Mark Jackson


Geez, is there anybody who has to look farther for a comparable than Rondo?
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:42 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Yeah, Kobe and Love are right there. See page 1.
But Nash takes the cake. He's about 2/3 of the way down.
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Crow



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:56 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I understand Sco does not care how you score and that has its place and value.

A version of your system that broke the parts of scoring out (from the line and on 2 and 3 point shots or even to inside shots) would weed out some of similars on overall stats who are not similar on scoring style. That can be done after the fact with the current method too though.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:16 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Yes, then you'd see players judged as more similar because of how they score their points, even when their rebounding, assists, and etc. are less similar.

'How you score' is only important relative to other players on your team, and how they score. But points all count the same. Fancy assists and easy assists are of equal value. Box-out rebounds and sky-high rebounds are equal.

Style doesn't affect the scoreboard, so I prefer to ignore it.
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kjb



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:45 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike: Who are the similars for John Wall?
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3474
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:44 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Closest season for each player.
Code:
dif yr per-36 rates Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
.00 2011 John Wall 13.9 4.2 7.8 2.5 1.7 3.6 .3
.08 1995 Eric Murdock 15.0 3.8 7.7 2.3 1.8 3.2 .2
.08 2000 Rod Strickland 12.9 4.5 8.7 2.4 1.5 3.1 .3
.08 2006 Jamaal Tinsley 13.4 4.6 7.6 3.1 1.6 3.5 .2
.09 2006 Andre Miller 14.8 4.6 8.4 2.7 1.3 3.2 .2

.09 1989 Sleepy Floyd 14.9 3.9 8.6 2.6 1.6 3.3 .1
.10 2004 Brent Barry 14.5 4.2 6.9 2.4 1.7 2.7 .3
.11 1994 Micheal Williams 15.5 3.8 8.2 3.1 1.9 3.3 .4
.11 1991 Brian Shaw 13.3 4.9 7.4 2.7 1.4 3.0 .5
.11 1993 Kenny Anderson 15.4 4.2 8.1 2.6 1.8 2.8 .2

.11 2000 Mike Bibby 12.8 4.0 8.2 2.0 1.6 3.0 .2
.12 1987 Terry Porter 13.0 4.6 8.3 2.6 2.1 3.4 .1
.13 1990 Tim Hardaway 13.1 4.1 8.0 3.2 2.3 3.6 .2
.13 1998 Darrel Armstrong 12.7 4.7 7.2 2.6 1.6 3.1 .1
.14 1995 Robert Pack 15.2 3.7 8.7 3.1 1.8 4.1 .2

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kjb



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:10 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Not exactly a murderer's row. Thanks, Mike.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:50 am Post subject: Reply with quote
One could do worse than resembling TPorter, THardaway, and KAnderson as rookies 2-3 years older.
http://bkref.com/tiny/tm93X

Of the 4, Wall has the highest Ast% and the lowest Stl%; the lowest eFG% and the highest FTA/36; highest DRb% and lowest ORb%.
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kjb



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:42 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Yeah -- there are some good players on the list. I just didn't like seeing Murdock 1st. Smile

bump

Number of top 5 historic similars (besides themselves) for nearly all of the top stars detailed above who won NBA titles (didn't count ABA):

James 4
Wade 3
Bryant 2
Howard 3
Rose 2
Nowitzki 1
Griffin 0
Love 0
Boozer 4
Westbrook 4
Stoudemire 3
Randolph 1
P Gasol 1
Paul 3
D Williams 1
Durant 2
Ginobli 3
Horford 2
Anthony 2
T Parker 0
Scola 0
Aldridge 1
Bosh 3
Odom 1
K Martin 1
A Jefferson 1
Bogut 1
J Johnson 4
Rondo 1

Of course using a different number of similars for the cutoff might change the results some and not very "similar" contributed had equal opportunities to win titles or made equal contributions to them. The number of title winners among the top similars may or may not be of much significance.

If it has some significance then things may look fairly good for James and Bosh, Westbrook and Boozer. Howard, Stoudemire and Paul look alright on their own, a shortfall may be more about the rest of team than them.

Same with even Joe Johnson; perhaps if he got to a better team he might be able to enough of a contribution to produce a team victory. But would his stats be similar or change? Could he make a significant difference for Orlando or San Antonio or possibly the Lakers in a bigger deal or another team? I'm not a fan of his and haven't studied his possible value to these teams closely but I toss it out there because I was a bit surprised his similar list did that well.

For more than a dozen other stars listed above, the track record of their most similars with regards to titles is not that encouraging (those with from 0-2 of 5 winning titles).