APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sat May 26, 2012 1:57 pm**

C-F-F-G-G
1st team: Dwight, LeBron, Durant, Kobe, Paul
2nd: Bynum, Griffin, Love, Westbrook, Parker
3rd: Chandler, Dirk, Carmelo, Wade, Rondo

Based on Win Shares, we might have had this configuration:

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.    1st team               2nd team               3rd team   
C   Chandler  9.5      C   Noah      9.0      C   M Gasol   8.2
F   LeBron   14.5      F   Love     10.0      F   Anderson  8.9
F   Durant   12.2      F   Griffin   9.2      F   P Gasol   8.3
G   Paul     12.7      G   Westbrook 7.9      G   Iguodala  7.3
G   Harden    9.3      G   Wade      7.7      G   Parker    7.1

Rondo (4.9) is 21st in WS among guards, 62nd among all players. Kobe would make 5th team, by a nose over Lou Williams.
Among all players with at least Rondo's WS total (4.9), PER might pick these teams:

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.    1st team               2nd team               3rd team   
C   Dwight  24.2      C   Bynum     22.9      C   Duncan    22.5
F   LeBron  30.7      F   Love      25.4      F   Millsap   21.8
F   Durant  26.2      F   Griffin   23.4      F   Aldridge  22.7
G   Paul    27.0      G   Rose      23.0      G   Parker    22.0
G   Wade    26.3      G   Westbrook 22.9      G   Harden    21.1

If Al Jefferson is a F, his PER (22.8) bumps Millsap. Nash would be the next guard, by 0.1 over Lou Williams.
And with eWins leaders by position, we get this arrangement:

Code: Select all

.    1st team               2nd team              3rd team   
C   Dwight    9.8      C   Bynum    8.1      C   M Gasol  8.0
F   LeBron   12.7      F   Griffin  9.7      F   Love     8.6
F   Durant   10.7      F   J Smith  9.4      F   P Gasol  8.4
G   Paul      9.4      G   Kobe     7.4      G   Parker   7.2
G   Westbrook 8.3      G   Wade     7.2      G   Nash     7.0
.                                            G   Iguodala 7.0
.                                            G   Rondo    6.9

A virtual 3-way tie for that last guard spot.
eWins had Harden 14th among guards, 4th among SG.

Posted: **Sat May 26, 2012 3:01 pm**

By these metrics, the team still alive with the most top players is the Thunder with 3. Several have 2 on different metrics.

By non-prior informed RAPM it is clearly the Spurs with 3 (not including Duncan) and no one else alive with more than one.

By prior-informed RAPM it is still the Spurs with 3 (one of them being Duncan) to the Heat's 2 and no one else alive with more than one.

Posted: **Sat May 26, 2012 3:58 pm**

Of course, with any per-minute (or per-possession) metric, you kind of have to use a minutes minimum for such consideration as all-league teams -- for example, if your Top 3 Spurs includes Matt Bonner, who's averaging < 14 minutes in the playoffs.

Better is to just multiply minutes X per-minute effectiveness, as with WinShares and eWins.

Posted: **Sat May 26, 2012 4:25 pm**

Yes that would be better.

But the possession or minute information is not right beside the RAPM estimates. It could be constructed.

Bonner and Collison have low minutes but with their extreme high RAPM ratings they have a good chance of still making the top 15 when the ratings are minutes or possessions weighted.

Posted: **Sat May 26, 2012 9:10 pm**

Carmelo and Dirk made 3rd team despite missing the boat on all 3 of these measures.
'Melo was 35th in WS, 29th in eWins, and 28th in PER, among the top 100 in WS.
Dirk was 17th in WS, 23rd in eWins, and 20th in PER. But F is a competitive position, at the top.

Rondo was #62 in both WS and PER, but 27th in eWins.
eWins seems to love Josh Smith: His productivity made him 6th in the league. In WS he was 29th (6.8), and PER had him at 27th (21.1).

Posted: **Sat May 26, 2012 9:48 pm**

His productivity made him 6th in the league...

among all players or just PFs?...

eWins seems to love Josh Smith...

josh smith was one of the worst overall shooting starting PFs in the league. atlanta was also one of the league's worst offensive rebounding teams. so he missed alot of shots and alot of those misses (about 3/4 of them) ended up being zero point team possessions...

Posted: **Sat May 26, 2012 11:12 pm**

Josh Smith played .144 of Atlanta's total player-minutes.
He took .206 of their FGA and had .207 of their made FG. He also had 20% of their FT.
This shooting resulted in .194 of their points. He had .208 of their OReb and .232 of their total rebounds.
He had .174 of their assists and steals, and .384 of team blocks.
He led the team in every total but assists and steals, where he was a close 2nd (to Jeff Teague).

Players who have for a season averaged at least 18.7 points, 9.5 reb, 3.8 ast, 1.4 stl, and 1.7 blk:
Kareem (3 times), Garnett (3x), Webber (twice), Bob Lanier, David Robinson, and Josh Smith.

The Hawks played at the league's 9th-slowest pace, in a slow-paced season (91.3, about 94% of historic median since 1978).
Players with a season of 15.8 TReb%, 20.5 Ast%, 2.1 Stl%, and 3.7 Blk%: Josh Smith this year and Garnett in his MVP season.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Ryg5R
Relax these standards to 15-20-2-3, and you get one other KG season (1999), with even lower eFG% and TS% than Smoove this year.

He posted career highs in DReb%, Ast%, and Usg%, with career low TO%.
His poor shooting brought the team's TS% down by .010

Posted: **Sun May 27, 2012 12:37 pm**

bchaikin wrote: josh smith was one of the worst overall shooting starting PFs in the league. ..

There were 36 players listed as PF who started at least 50% of the games they were in.
Josh Smith ranks 26th in 2-pt FG% (.479), just ahead of Love and Bargnani.
Among these PF, his 3FG% (.257) ranks 14th, and only 6 of the 13 who hit better also attempted more.
His FT% (.630) was 30th of 36. (Griffin attempted 50% more and was .109 worse.)

The average of these 3 ranks is 23rd of 36 -- about the 39 percentile.
His TS% (.498) ranks 27th, better than just 30% of starting PF.
PF with better 2FG%, FT%, and 3FG% (10 or more attempts) : Dirk, R Anderson, Bosh, and Ilyasova.

Meanwhile, per 36 minutes he ranked: 2nd in Ast (to Boris Diaw), 4th in Stl (after Millsap, Nene, and Blair), 6th in Blk, 8th in Points, 10th in total Reb, 26th in OReb.
The only PF with more Reb and Blk (per 36) were Camby and Ibaka.
Those with more Reb and Pts: Love and Griffin
He stole twice as frequently as Diaw did.
With more steals and blocks per minute: none

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