APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sun May 27, 2012 7:17 pm**

OKC and San Antonio neck and neck on rankings for the quality of the shot distribution and overall efficiency. Miami a step or two back. Boston way way behind with the worst shot distribution of the 4. In fact if you look at the sum of their rankings on the best three offensive weapons (at the line, at the rim and from 3 pt land), they had the 3rd worst shot distribution in the league. A big name coach, a prominent front office assisted by extensive databases run by IT experts and multiple all-stars / hall of famers and yet they have such a poor shot distribution. Their FG%s help partly offset this in the overall eFG% and overall offensive efficiency but not enough to be in the same range as these other three teams. They had a really lousy shot distribution in 2007-8 too so the current shot distribution is not a result of deterioration because of age or personnel changes. They had to win it with defense and shot accuracy to compensate for their very poor shot distribution. There has been no apparent learning or at least change on that front.

Posted: **Mon May 28, 2012 11:08 am**

Here's that chart, hope I didn't butcher it too much:

Code: Select all

Team          Bos  Mia    SA  Okl   
At Rim    A    23   10    13   14   
.        FG%   15   12     5    4   
3-9 Feet  A    30   21     5   24   
.        FG%   27    9    10   16   
10-15 Ft  A     5   10    19   13   
.        FG%    4    1     3   23   
16-23 Ft  A     3   18    27   24   
.        FG%    3   12     7    1   
Threes    A    23   22     7   12   
.        FG%    7   10     1   11   
FT/FGA    A    17    4    19    1   
.        FT%    5    7    19    1   
overall eFG%   10    5     2    1   
offens. eff.   25    8     1    2

These appear to be rankings among NBA teams, such that 1 is most or best, 30 is least or worst; for the regular season.
The Thunder are best in the league from 16-23', but they seldom take those shots. Presumably even being the best at that range makes for worse scoring than going to the rim and other things that get them to the FT line.
How unusual is it to lead the league in FT and in FT% ? (They were 2nd in FTA)

The Celtics are old, and older players don't get as many FTA as when they were younger. Still they're almost average in FT/FGA.
In 2008 they ranked 3rd, and after that 6th, 6th, 8th, and now 17th.
They live on 10-23' shots and they're among the best at them.
This year they were 29th in 3FGA; last year 28th despite above avg 3FG%

Posted: **Mon May 28, 2012 6:05 pm**

Ok, thanks for finding that they did deteriorate on one part of the shot distribution, getting to the line.

They still had a lousy overall shot distribution in 2007-8.

1 is most (usually best but not always on frequency). High number from mid-range is bad.

P.S. Thanks for the chart formatting. I can't get the code thing to work right for me and don't want to mess with it again.

APBRmetrics

Shot distributions and efficiency for conference finalists

Shot distributions and efficiency for conference finalists

Re: Shot distributions and efficiency for conference finalis

Re: Shot distributions and efficiency for conference finalis