APBRmetrics

Posted: **Tue May 29, 2012 2:28 pm**

I have been following this forum for a while now and have learned a ton of metrics based on an individual player level as well as a team level. However, it seems as most metrics cannot predict future performances, only allow me to evaluate PAST performances. I am trying to find a way to predict matchups between different teams but I have no clue what statistics and metrics are useful for forecasting performances and scores. I know people here post projected player stats but it is hard to sort of put that into a model to see which team is more probable to win. If anyone has any suggestions or comments feel free to post.

Posted: **Tue May 29, 2012 4:33 pm**

Pretty much every metric can be converted to forecast game point differential (or win%).

There are a couple that don't need much/any conversion like (R)APM, ORtg+DRtg (bbref), ASPM, eZpm(?), and those that need it like eWins and WP.

The most recent thread on forecasting/retrodicting is here http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f ... 4&start=15

Posted: **Tue May 29, 2012 8:12 pm**

A good start:

1) Find the percent of game-minutes each player plays (or estimate/predict). An OK rule-of-thumb is (MinutesPerGame/48)*(Games/66) unless the player is a heavy rotation/starter that was injured, in which case the (Games/66) should = 1 if they are healthy now.

2) Multiply this percentage by their RAPM (which is unfortunately not updated

- http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

Sum of (Team A RAPM*Minutes%) minus (Team B RAPM*Minutes%) is a rough estimate for the team's predicted efficiency differential. If you want point differential, you'll have to predict pace, which is more of an NCAA thing to do

Posted: **Wed May 30, 2012 1:57 pm**

bbstats wrote: 2) Multiply this percentage by their RAPM (which is unfortunately not updated - http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

bbv is not updating their matchupfiles. No idea if it will stay that way forever, but I guess not.
Should Aaron never update again, I can fall back to crawling ESPN