APBRmetrics

http://basketballprospectus.com/article ... cleid=2336

"Houston's Goran Dragic looks like the perfect fit for the Blazers."

Perfect fit? That is pretty strong language with just a very brief surface case made for him. Will he help elevate them? He hasn't elevated his previous teams really. Given freedom to play his game, he got nice numbers individually and even had good on /off and counterpart numbers this year, but for some reason has never had a positive RAPM estimate. But go ahead and be the third team in 5 years to think he might be their future answer. Maybe third time is the charm. More likely he will be close to average.

There are worse players to invest in but maybe better ones too. If you are wrong and the first to pay him pretty big bucks long-term it will hurt the planned "retool" in several ways. So I'd also be considering other options with a better estimated impact and / or cheaper & less committing. Or maybe a younger guy with less track record but with the perceived 'potential' to exceed a neutral team impact.

Felton, oddly, has never had a RAPM estimate below neutral and this season was his best on that metric. Maybe RAPM is wrong about one or both. I'd slow down and give Dragic a closer, tougher look using everything, especially after the flight to and from Felton.

I'm not sure what they actually mean by answer. Is he going to be the next Chris Paul or Deron Williams? I doubt it personally. So if that's what they are expecting by signing the guy, they will be disappointed IMO.

I'm a Rockets fan though, so I can say a few things about what his accomplishments were. He had shown flashes of being a solid player in Phoenix. Had a few series in the playoffs where he played well and got some attention as a key role player. He was traded for Aaron Brooks in what seems a case of both players needing a change in scenery. Brooks had gotten injured and lost his starting job to Lowry, who was having a breakout year. Brooks came back and didn't seem to be the same player, and he was also on the last year of his rookie deal... so there was the potential issue of us having a PG controversy. Dragic had an extra year on his deal so we would have a cheap player for just a little bit longer. I don't know why Phoenix did the deal... maybe they thought at the time Brooks was the better player because he had played a year as a starter and was coming off an injury.

The year Houston got Dragic wasn't anything special. Although when Lowry was injured for a few games, Dragic stepped in as a starter and earned himself a triple double and had high assist numbers in general the 2-3 games he played. Then of course, when Lowry got injured it was the same thing towards the end of the year. He stepped in and contributed well. So I think he's earned a starting job on a team, wherever he ends up being.

Ironically, it's looking like Morey is looking to potentially deal Lowry or Martin during the offseason and sign Dragic, making him the 3rd guard to earn the starting job after being a backup for Houston in the past 5 years (Brooks, Lowry, Dragic). I think Dragic would stay in Houston if he was given the starting job.