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Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Sat Jul 07, 2012 6:16 pm
by Mike G
Subjectively, it seems Ray Allen's career has been almost equal thirds with each team he's been on.
Actually, he played by far the most games and minutes in Milwaukee.
He had by far his best scoring rates, and played the most minutes per game, in Seattle.
He's had by far the most team success, and 70% of his playoff minutes, in Boston.
His regular season per-36-minute shot attempts and percents, followed by other per36 rates:
Code: Select all
From To Tm G mpg 3fga 3fg% 2fga 2fg% FTA FT% TSA TS% Pts
1997 2003 MIL 494 36.3 5.2 .406 10.0 .473 4.1 .879 17.0 .571 19.4
2003 2007 SEA 296 39.4 7.0 .386 10.7 .476 4.7 .899 19.7 .569 22.5
2008 2012 BOS 358 35.7 5.5 .409 7.1 .520 3.0 .914 13.9 .606 16.9
Tm ORb DRb Reb Ast Stl Blk TO PF
MIL 1.19 3.3 4.5 3.7 1.24 .19 2.4 2.5
SEA 1.00 3.2 4.2 3.8 1.20 .14 2.3 2.0
BOS .71 2.7 3.4 2.8 .91 .22 1.6 2.0
As a Celtic, he improved all his efficiencies while shooting less, and with less productivity elsewhere.
He's made 10 all-star teams: 3 times in Mil, 4 times in Sea, 3 in Bos.
He was 3rd team all-NBA one time in Mil, a 2nd team in Seattle.
His 4 highest scoring years -- per game and per minute -- were his 4 full Sonic seasons.
Here's the same rack of numbers for his playoffs. Again, per 36 minutes.
Code: Select all
From To Tm G mpg 3fga 3fg% 2fga 2fg% FTA FT% TSA TS% Pts
1997 2003 MIL 26 41.3 6.3 .463 11.7 .484 4.7 .884 20.0 .603 24.2
2003 2007 SEA 11 39.6 7.5 .378 12.1 .534 5.7 .889 22.1 .599 26.5
2008 2012 BOS 91 38.0 5.8 .387 6.2 .467 3.3 .880 13.5 .574 15.5
Tm ORb DRb Reb Ast Stl Blk TO PF
MIL 1.42 3.5 5.0 5.2 1.35 .42 2.4 2.4
SEA 1.09 3.2 4.3 3.9 1.27 .36 3.1 2.0
BOS .69 3.1 3.7 2.3 .98 .21 1.4 2.6
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2012 10:11 am
by huevonkiller
Ray Allen has been remarkably comparable to Paul Pierce in the playoffs the past few seasons, without the fanfare.
In the 2008 Finals he could have been the MVP, and had a higher Game Score per game.
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Sun Jul 08, 2012 9:58 pm
by Mike G
I had them ranked like this for the 2008 Finals:
Code: Select all
eWins '08 Celts mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk eW/48
.95 Garnett 38 .464 18.3 15.2 3.0 1.7 2.6 1.0 .199
.85 Pierce 39 .572 24.5 5.1 6.2 1.1 3.6 .3 .174
.75 Allen 41 .693 22.3 5.4 2.3 1.2 1.7 .6 .147
.56 Rondo 27 .421 13.2 6.4 9.6 2.1 2.1 .7 .164
No one else was over .086 eW/48 (House) or over .18 eWins (Posey)
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:53 pm
by Mike G
Most postseasons, Ray and Pierce have had almost identical effective shooting %.
But otherwise, Pierce looks like the better player every year.
Code: Select all
per36 yr G Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk eWins e480
RA 2008 26 38 .567 17.5 4.3 2.6 .9 1.4 .3 2.1 1.00
PP 2008 26 38 .557 23.4 5.6 4.3 1.1 3.1 .3 3.2 1.57
RA 2009 14 39 .545 17.3 3.9 2.2 1.0 1.7 .3 1.0 .90
PP 2009 14 39 .541 20.0 5.8 2.5 1.0 2.2 .3 1.4 1.20
RA 2010 24 39 .563 17.1 3.5 2.4 .9 1.4 .1 1.7 .88
PP 2010 24 39 .554 20.4 6.2 3.0 .9 2.5 .5 2.8 1.43
RA 2011 9 40 .706 20.9 3.7 2.4 1.1 1.0 .1 .9 1.24
PP 2011 9 38 .567 22.3 5.3 3.0 1.3 2.6 .4 1.0 1.41
RA 2012 18 34 .507 11.4 4.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 .1 .5 .43
PP 2012 20 39 .506 20.7 6.0 3.3 1.4 2.6 .8 2.3 1.39
Last year, Ray shot very well, but not frequently: just 11 shots per 36 minutes. And he didn't do much else.
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:26 pm
by huevonkiller
How did Pierce outplay Allen in 2011? That seems egregious.
However these are the figures for Ray from basketball-reference:
RA 2008-2012 playoffs: 3454 minutes, 13.9 PER, .574 TS%, 18.7% USG, 113 O-rating, 106 D-rating, 9.4 win shares, .131 WS/48.
PP 2008-2012 playoffs: 3597 minutes, 16.5 PER, .555 TS%, , 25.3% USG, 106 O-rating, 103 d-rating, 9.4 win shares, .125 WS/48.
They're nearly identical players in the post-season. Paul is clearly the better defender, but Allen has offensive peaks were he surpasses Dirk and Shaq in Win Shares. His playing style allows him to play at a comparable level but without the prestige.
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:33 pm
by huevonkiller
Now for the 2011 comparison:
RA: 361 minutes, 19.6 PER, .708 TS%, 17.2 USG%, 136 o-rating, 106 d-rating, 1.7 WS, .225 WS/48
PP: 343 minutes, 17.6 PER, .574 TS%, 26.1 USG%, 104 o-rating, 104 d-rating, 0.9 WS, .128 WS/48.
Ray is killing Paul in this post-season, and lead the league in TS%, EFG%. It shouldn't even be close.
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:45 pm
by Mike G
Of course you may compare one player's peaks to another player's averages, but that doesn't tell you anything.
You may also recall that Ray Allen could not hit the broad side of the barn in game 7 of the 2010 Finals.
If he could have made just
4 of 14, the Celts would have another title.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 70LAL.html
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:48 pm
by huevonkiller
Mike G wrote:Of course you may compare one player's peaks to another player's averages, but that doesn't tell you anything.
You may also recall that Ray Allen could not hit the broad side of the barn in game 7 of the 2010 Finals.
If he could have made just
4 of 14, the Celts would have another title.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 70LAL.html
No one is comparing peaks, I'm comparing their overall playoff careers in Boston. And their overall post-seasons in 2011.
In no way does Pierce stack up to Ray that year. It isn't even close, although other seasons are a different matter.
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2012 11:48 am
by Mike G
...Allen has offensive peaks were he surpasses Dirk and Shaq in Win Shares...
No one is comparing peaks...
In no way does Pierce stack up to Ray that year. It isn't even close, although other seasons are a different matter
Here are some ways Pierce seems to have been better than Ray in the 2011 playoffs:
Code: Select all
2011 PO mpg PPG RPG APG Reb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
Pierce 38.1 20.8 5.0 2.8 8.0 13.5 1.9 1.0
Allen 40.1 18.9 3.8 2.4 5.8 10.5 1.6 0.2
In the first round sweep of the Knicks, Ray shot 75% and Pierce shot 57%. Both averaged 22 pts/G
Losing 4-1 to the Heat, Ray shot 65% and Pierce 56%. Pierce averaged 20-6-3 and Ray 16-3-3.
Re: Ray Allen's 3 careers
Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 6:30 pm
by huevonkiller
Mike G wrote:...Allen has offensive peaks were he surpasses Dirk and Shaq in Win Shares...
No one is comparing peaks...
And like I said, you are still wrong. Shaq and Dirk's peaks are superior to Allen's peaks, but in 2001 Allen defeats a
not-quite-peak Shaq/Dirk in offensive win shares. You were a little careless with your prose, so I had to correct you there.
This is what you said earlier:
"Of course you may compare one player's peaks to another player's averages, but that doesn't tell you anything. "
Technically I am not comparing true peak seasons. Nor am I comparing Allen's peak to any player's averages either. Allen flat out led the league in offensive ws one year, never did I make a mention of any averages.
Here are some ways Pierce seems to have been better than Ray in the 2011 playoffs:
Code: Select all
2011 PO mpg PPG RPG APG Reb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
Pierce 38.1 20.8 5.0 2.8 8.0 13.5 1.9 1.0
Allen 40.1 18.9 3.8 2.4 5.8 10.5 1.6 0.2
In the first round sweep of the Knicks, Ray shot 75% and Pierce shot 57%. Both averaged 22 pts/G
Losing 4-1 to the Heat, Ray shot 65% and Pierce 56%. Pierce averaged 20-6-3 and Ray 16-3-3.
Allen actually usurps Pierce in ball handling, since his turnover rate is 5 points lower than Pierce's. Your assist rate is therefore invalid. Paul is definitely the better defender, but Allen crushes him in all rate stats, even PER. Having a higher PER with far less usage is very telling. Your ewins stat looks egregiously wrong for the 2011 season, and citing points per game is pretty useless I think. There's no point in pumping up high usage, low efficiency basketball players when there's such a gap in quality. Allen has a higher PER by
2 points, a
13.4% higher TS%, a
14.0% higher EFG%, a
19 point higher O-rating, a Turnover rate that is
5.1% better, a WS/48
97 points higher, and
has more total win shares by 0.6.
Pierce wins by
0.1% in offensive rebounding which is almost nothing, wins in steal rate by
0.3%, wins in block rate by
0.8%, wins in defensive rebounding by
4.3%. Because of this small magnitude in difference, Pierce is only two defensive points better. He also doesn't handle the ball nearly as careful as ray did in 2011
Just to summarize it all for you:
RA:
+2.0 PER with 8.9% less USG, +13.4 TS%, +14.0 EFG%, +5.1 Tov%, +19 points O-rating, +97 points WS48, +.6 WS.
PP:
+0.1 Oreb%, + 4.3 Dreb%, +3.0 AST%,+2 points D-rating.
And turnover rate is far more important than assist rate. Like I said Pierce is outclassed this post-season, your metric didn't adjust for opponent so it doesn't have that problem either. No one cares about points per game and rebounds per game.