APBRmetrics

Having a disagreement with a friend, he claims the lack of top tier stars have artificially enhanced Brons stats. This his PER wouldnt be so dominant if he were in the 80's. Any truth to this? Is there a way to plug his statline into the 80's and come up with an adjusted PER?

First of all, PER is adjusted for league average so this is a non-issue. This means PER can be compared across all eras, and personally I give more credence to later eras than earlier ones.

Defensively this era is superior and has a slower paced, half-court style. Dwight Howard, Duncan, KG are superstars and have led the league in defensive rating 8 out of the past 8 seasons. With an average d-rating of 94, almost three points better than leaders in the 80's. In 1987 for instance, the NBA averaged 100.8 possessions a game, compared to 91.3 in 2012 and 91.7 in 2009.

As for top-tier perimeter stars, Chris Paul, Wade, Kobe, Durant, Paul Pierce, Mac, are superb players. All of them are more athletic than Bird, Magic. Chris has a higher prime than both. Wade is more athletic than any perimeter player I can think of aside from James/Jordan. Kobe Bryant is a legit superstar and in the conversation for best Laker ever. Prime T-Mac used to be a better version of Durant, even though Durant is better than Drexler. Your friend sounds bitter. Also PER shouldn't be the end-all anyway since it lacks a usage component and defensive prowess.


I think clearly James is the most athletic player I've ever seen, and relies less on jumpers than any perimeter MVP player I can think of. Far more people around the world like basketball and our world is more integrated too. The population of the Earth is probably quite relevant to the talent pool of the NBA.

LeBron led the league in fast-break scoring so the previous, pace-inflated era of the 80's suits him well stylistically. His game really takes off when he gets those breaks in transition. He's also a great rebounder because of his athleticism...

International competition seems far more sophisticated now too, which isn't really arguable at all. That's also another large indicator to me that more people care about this sport. There's so much more money to be made.

Z-scoring the PER (or Win Shares, or whatever) for each season might make things a little more clear, but my guess is that there are as many very good/great players now as there were in the 80s. I agree with heuvon though that the quality of play in general now is higher than the 80s; today's average player is probably better than the 80s' average player. That might suggest LeBron (and other current greats) is even better than the numbers suggest, instead of overrated.

huevonkiller wrote:First of all, PER is adjusted for league average so this is a non-issue. This means PER can be compared across all eras, and personally I give more credence to later eras than earlier ones.

Hes suggesting that because its accounting for the league at large and because the 2 environments are so different (one being comprised of more talent/stars) that one player is benefiting from it. Essentially, hes saying if there was another Bron caliber player putting up comparable #'s both of their PER's would drop despite the fact that they are still producing at the same rate and that the only difference would be the league in which they play. Thats the effect hes hinting at.

A simpler example would be to look at a Finals series, correct me if Im wrong but when you look at PER for any individual playoff series, the # accounts for production from both teams. So 1 player standing far above the rest would enhance his PER but if there was another player challenging him, despite no change in his own production, their PER would drop. Basically, there was a greater deviation from Star#1 and the other players in the series than there was between Star#1/Star#2 and other players in his Finals because, well, there were better players having better series in those Finals.

huevonkiller wrote: Defensively this era is superior and has a slower paced, half-court style. Dwight Howard, Duncan, KG are superstars and have led the league in defensive rating 8 out of the past 8 seasons. With an average d-rating of 94, almost three points better than leaders in the 80's. In 1987 for instance, the NBA averaged 100.8 possessions a game, compared to 91.3 in 2012 and 91.7 in 2009.

As for top-tier perimeter stars, Chris Paul, Wade, Kobe, Durant, Paul Pierce, Mac, are superb players. All of them are more athletic than Bird, Magic. Chris has a higher prime than both. Wade is more athletic than any perimeter player I can think of aside from James/Jordan. Kobe Bryant is a legit superstar and in the conversation for best Laker ever. Prime T-Mac used to be a better version of Durant, even though Durant is better than Drexler. Your friend sounds bitter. Also PER shouldn't be the end-all anyway since it lacks a usage component and defensive prowess.


I think clearly James is the most athletic player I've ever seen, and relies less on jumpers than any perimeter MVP player I can think of. Far more people around the world like basketball and our world is more integrated too. The population of the Earth is probably quite relevant to the talent pool of the NBA.

LeBron led the league in fast-break scoring so the previous, pace-inflated era of the 80's suits him well stylistically. His game really takes off when he gets those breaks in transition. He's also a great rebounder because of his athleticism...

International competition seems far more sophisticated now too, which isn't really arguable at all. That's also another large indicator to me that more people care about this sport. There's so much more money to be made.

I agree, I was just hoping for a way to see what his PER would look like under the parameters from a different league. Seems to me hes taking this more defensively dominant era as a sign of diminishing offensive producers. If that makes sense.

So 1 player standing far above the rest would enhance his PER but if there was another player challenging him, despite no change in his own production, their PER would drop.

I don't think this is true. It doesn't perturb LeBron's PER when Wade or Durant is almost as good in a series. It's just LeBron's production relative to his team's + the opponents'.
If anything, LeBron's productivity may be artificially high because his team lacks a lot of productive players. But if you put the 2012 Heat into the 1980's, they'd distribute the ball about the same, and LeBron would be about the same PER -- if the league environment is about the same.

There may also be more talent in the league today, but not necessarily on a per-team basis. That's what determines the competitive level. For most of the '80s, there were 23 teams. So even if there is now 30% more talent, or 1/3 more top-tier players, the average opponent could be about equivalent.

There's no way to determine the equivalency of the average NBA team in 1986 vs 2012. So it's whatever you want to believe.

Thx for the response, no need to respond at the other forum just dont know which board to post in so I went with both.