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Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:00 am
by huevonkiller
I was reading an article on Dream Team ASPM. It is an "insider" article so I will not re-post it here (not that I believe in that stuff, but just out of respect to the author I'll keep quiet).
It is called "Settling the Dream Team debate" By Neil Paine from ESPN.com.
My overall conclusions:
1. If you use ASPM to calculate the talent level of the Dream Team, is it really fair to use David Robinson's metrics from the regular-season? He's clearly not the same player in his prime during the post-season. I know he's amazing in the regular season but I think Shaq has a better career statistically. Also I don't think one should use ASPM as an end-all.
2. Is it appropriate that after coming off his absolute weakest post-season title run ever, that MJ should be declared the best player by far in the 2012 vs 1992 debate? Nah I don't think so either. But indeed this is what Mr. Neil Paine has said in his series of (very well written otherwise) analyses. Sketchy boast, since 2012 LeBron crushes 92 Jordan. Also average player talent isn't the end-all since the league is 10+% larger than in 1992. In economics there's also a "catch-up effect" which helps inferior countries catch up to more capitalist countries. That's one of the reasons why point differential is lower now, in addition to Spain being a premium opponent.
3.I think the 2012 team is flawed because of their lack of size, but no need to aggrandize the Dream Team. They're within reach had Dwight, Bosh, or possibly Dwyane Wade played.
I enjoyed reading this piece though. The 95, 96, 97, and 98 Bulls played in a weak era and pumped up their wins so to speak, according to Neil Paine's calculations, so that was a fun non-revelation for me. I love reading APBRmetricians from ESPN, hopefully they pump out more stuff in the future.
Edit: His analysis of different eras is somewhat amorphous and might be incorrect, just wanted to correct that for the record.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 12:03 pm
by DSMok1
I think you are strongly over-weighting post season in your comments here. The sample size in post season is considerably smaller than the regular season.
Jordan was dominant in the post-season in 90, 91, and 93...just because he had a relatively down post-season in 92 doesn't mean he wasn't dominant. Just that he had a relatively poor post season, with a small sample size. Any number of reasons possible, including just "luck". His regular season was still dominant.
2012 Lebron crushes 92 Jordan? I find that quite a strong statement.
I don't know about your David Robinson CLEARLY not the same player in post season. I believe I saw a study on playoffs vs. regular season, and the reduction he saw wasn't unusual. He was plenty good in the '91 playoffs!
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 5:01 pm
by Mike G
The 95, 96, 97, and 98 Bulls played in a weak era and pumped up their wins so to speak...
What is the argument that it was a weak era? Relative to what era?
My own analysis concludes that 1993 was the low point of competitiveness in the Bulls era, and the weakest year since '83; but stronger than any year before 1983.
Meanwhile, 1997-98 looks like as strong a year as any; based on minutes and rebound rates by players who also played in prior seasons.
Jordan was dominant in the post-season in 90, 91, and 93...just because he had a relatively down post-season in 92 doesn't mean he wasn't dominant. Just that he had a relatively poor post season...
He was dominant; was he "relatively down"?
His scoring relative to opponent scoring was higher than for any other season or postseason in the Bulls' title years.
His playoff rebound and assist rates were essentially the same as his season's. Same TS%. For most players, these rates fall off in the playoffs.
The '92 Bulls were opposed by 2 of the 3 best defenses in the league (NY and Por) for 13 of their 22 playoff games. This may have something to do with depressed stats.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:05 pm
by Mike G
I don't know about your David Robinson CLEARLY not the same player in post season. I believe I saw a study on playoffs vs. regular season, and the reduction he saw wasn't unusual. He was plenty good in the '91 playoffs!
That postseason, all of 4 games, was the only one in his prime that matched his regular season. All others before Duncan arrived were sub-par, even relative to normal postseason dropoff.
Perhaps unrelated, for his whole regular season career, he was credited with 30% more blocks at home than on the road.
Anyway, performance in the Olympics is a drastically different animal than either playoffs or regular seasons. Jordan was about the worst Dream Teamer in those non-competitive games.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:33 pm
by Mike G
Is it appropriate that after coming off his absolute weakest post-season title run ever, that MJ should be declared the best player by far in the 2012 vs 1992 debate? Nah I don't think so either. But indeed this is what Mr. Neil Paine has said in his series of (very well written otherwise) analyses. Sketchy boast, since 2012 LeBron crushes 92 Jordan...
I don't see how either player is either
far better or
crushes the other.
In 22 playoff games in 1992, Jordan outshot his opponents (TS%) 16 times. He also had a higher TS% than his own team in 14 of 22 games.
He had a higher ORtg than his team in 14 of 22, and higher than the opponent in 15.
His TS% was better than the opponent in 3 of 4 series-closing games.
His ORtg was better in all 4 series closers.
In 3 of 4 series, his TS% was better than the opposing team's (exception: Cle)
In all 4 series, his ORtg was better than opponents'.
In 20 of 22 games, Jordan scored at least 30% of what the opposing team scored for the game.
In 7 games, he scored at least 40% of what opponents scored.
In Game 7 vs the Knicks, he had 42, vs 81 for NY. That's 52% of what the whole other team scored.
In the Finals, his TS% was better than the Bulls' TS% in all 6 games; better than the Blazers' in 5 of 6. At least 18% higher in 4 of 6.
His ORtg/Opp.ORtg by series: 1.27 vs Mia, 1.01 vs NY, 1.05 vs Cle, 1.16 vs Por
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 3:19 pm
by Mike G
From the free intro to the pay-per-view article:
... Kobe Bryant's best squad, 2008's Redeem Team, would have about a 44 percent chance of toppling Michael Jordan and the legends of 1992 in a best-of-seven series on a neutral court. And, as I wrote last week, that number could actually be given a boost by the supposition that the average player in 2012 is better than his 1992-93 counterpart. After all, today's players are certainly stronger, faster and more athletic than players were 20 years ago.
But as it turns out, that assumption is faulty. From a pure basketball production standpoint, it appears the typical NBA player is actually no better in 2012, in an absolute sense, than he was in 1992.
Is Neil slipping? Of course
from a pure basketball production standpoint, the typical NBA player is going to be equal in any era. The average player is average, in other words. Average stats, average ASPM, whatever.
Is average player production absolute, or is it relative? Aren't we pretty sure that we do not know?
It's like asking, "Would da Bears beat da Bulls?"
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 3:27 pm
by xkonk
It's been my experience that the articles on ESPN Insider are rarely the best work of any given author.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 4:56 pm
by Mike G
Now that I have actually looked at the 2012 USA Olympic basketball lineup -- and recalling that every member of the 1992 Dream Team is in the Hall of Fame (other than the collegian, Laettner) -- the contrast is striking.
Tyson Chandler is not going to the HOF. Some are long shots. Others are possible/likely. Kobe, LeBron, Durant, Paul are certain.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:23 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote:Now that I have actually looked at the 2012 USA Olympic basketball lineup -- and recalling that every member of the 1992 Dream Team is in the Hall of Fame (other than the collegian, Laettner) -- the contrast is striking.
Tyson Chandler is not going to the HOF. Some are long shots. Others are possible/likely. Kobe, LeBron, Durant, Paul are certain.
Some of the 2012 Olympians were well past their prime, for what it's worth.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:49 pm
by kjb
Here's a way to look at relative team strength. Who would you replace on the 1992 team with players from the 2012 team?
The only "must haves" from the 2012 team are Lebron, Durant, and Chris Paul. I'd replace Laettner, Bird (age/back), and then either Mullin or Drexler. Who else? Maybe Kobe over Mullin or Drexler. Maybe.
I wouldn't take Westbrook or Williams over Magic or Stockton.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 11:01 am
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote:Some of the 2012 Olympians were well past their prime, for what it's worth.
Really? The only players beyond 30 were Bird and Magic. Magic was still in his prime at 31, but then suspended by HIV.
Bird was the old man at 35, on his last legs (though no one knew it). And in his last year he had Usg% > 24, TReb% > 14, and Ast% > 16. These 3 rates have only been matched by Garnett (2005), Grant Hill ('97 and '98), and Bird himself in '84 and '86.
Everyone else on the team was in or near their prime. Mullin and Drexler would soon decline, but they hadn't yet.
About half the players on that team were still going strong a decade later.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 12:39 pm
by DSMok1
Here's a link to a table comparing some of those players listed in the last couple of posts: Bird, Magic, Mullin, Kobe, Westbrook, Harden.
http://bkref.com/tiny/RXcd4
Code: Select all
Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Magic Johnson* 1990-91 31 79 2933 25.1 .623 .518 4.3 16.9 10.9 49.3 1.8 0.3 20.4 22.9 124 105 11.2 4.2 15.4 .251
2 James Harden 2011-12 22 62 1946 21.1 .660 .582 1.9 12.2 7.4 19.3 1.6 0.6 14.8 21.6 125 105 7.5 1.8 9.3 .230
3 Russell Westbrook 2011-12 23 66 2331 22.9 .538 .481 5.0 9.4 7.4 29.8 2.5 0.7 14.2 32.7 108 105 5.5 2.4 7.9 .163
4 Larry Bird* 1991-92 35 45 1662 21.0 .547 .500 3.2 24.6 14.4 26.9 1.3 1.2 13.1 24.7 112 104 3.0 2.5 5.5 .159
5 Chris Mullin* 1991-92 28 81 3346 19.9 .586 .544 4.2 10.4 7.4 12.2 2.4 1.1 10.2 23.6 118 110 8.1 2.7 10.8 .155
6 Kobe Bryant 2011-12 33 58 2232 21.9 .527 .462 3.5 11.8 7.8 23.7 1.6 0.6 11.7 35.7 105 106 4.2 2.0 6.2 .132
It's not like the '92 numbers were that dominant, outside of Magic.
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:04 pm
by DSMok1
Other than the collegiate players, here are the players in question:
Code: Select all
Tota Tota Tota Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Shoo Shoo Shoo
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G GS MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT%
3 Charles Barkley* 1990-91 27 PHI NBA 67 67 2498 28.9 .635 .589 11.8 18.6 15.3 20.6 2.2 0.8 12.6 29.1 123 106 10.3 3.1 13.4 .258 .570 .284 .722
1 Charles Barkley* 1991-92 28 PHI NBA 75 75 2881 24.5 .612 .567 10.9 22.0 16.5 18.1 2.4 0.9 14.3 25.1 119 106 8.6 3.7 12.3 .205 .552 .234 .695
2 Charles Barkley* 1992-93 29 PHO NBA 76 76 2859 25.9 .596 .545 9.5 26.3 18.1 21.2 2.0 1.6 12.5 26.9 120 103 9.6 4.8 14.4 .242 .520 .305 .765
4 Larry Bird* 1990-91 34 BOS NBA 60 60 2277 19.7 .530 .492 2.8 20.4 12.3 25.9 2.3 1.5 14.6 23.7 109 103 3.0 3.6 6.6 .140 .454 .389 .891
5 Larry Bird* 1991-92 35 BOS NBA 45 45 1662 21.0 .547 .500 3.2 24.6 14.4 26.9 1.3 1.2 13.1 24.7 112 104 3.0 2.5 5.5 .159 .466 .406 .926
7 Clyde Drexler* 1990-91 28 POR NBA 82 82 2852 22.1 .563 .505 8.3 12.8 10.6 25.7 2.4 1.3 12.9 25.7 117 103 8.0 4.5 12.4 .209 .482 .319 .794
8 Clyde Drexler* 1991-92 29 POR NBA 76 76 2751 23.6 .560 .509 6.6 13.2 9.9 29.9 2.4 1.6 12.4 28.7 117 103 8.3 4.5 12.8 .223 .470 .337 .794
6 Clyde Drexler* 1992-93 30 POR NBA 49 49 1671 20.7 .517 .448 8.0 12.4 10.1 26.2 2.8 1.4 10.9 26.1 112 104 3.4 2.5 6.0 .171 .429 .233 .839
12 Patrick Ewing* 1990-91 28 NYK NBA 81 81 3104 23.7 .561 .514 7.4 25.7 16.8 14.1 1.3 5.0 13.2 31.1 107 101 4.4 5.6 10.0 .155 .514 .000 .745
14 Patrick Ewing* 1991-92 29 NYK NBA 82 82 3150 22.8 .563 .522 8.4 24.9 16.8 8.5 1.4 5.0 10.7 27.2 112 98 6.1 6.9 13.0 .198 .522 .167 .738
13 Patrick Ewing* 1992-93 30 NYK NBA 81 81 3003 20.8 .546 .503 7.3 28.4 18.2 9.2 1.3 3.6 12.9 29.7 105 94 2.6 8.1 10.6 .170 .503 .143 .719
15 Magic Johnson* 1990-91 31 LAL NBA 79 79 2933 25.1 .623 .518 4.3 16.9 10.9 49.3 1.8 0.3 20.4 22.9 124 105 11.2 4.2 15.4 .251 .477 .320 .906
18 Michael Jordan* 1990-91 27 CHI NBA 82 82 3034 31.6 .605 .547 4.6 14.3 9.5 25.2 3.7 1.7 8.7 32.9 125 102 14.9 5.4 20.3 .321 .539 .312 .851
17 Michael Jordan* 1991-92 28 CHI NBA 80 80 3102 27.7 .579 .526 3.5 15.3 9.5 25.7 3.0 1.5 8.8 31.7 121 102 12.1 5.6 17.7 .274 .519 .270 .832
16 Michael Jordan* 1992-93 29 CHI NBA 78 78 3067 29.7 .564 .515 4.9 15.1 9.8 25.2 3.7 1.3 8.4 34.7 119 102 12.0 5.2 17.2 .270 .495 .352 .837
19 Karl Malone* 1990-91 27 UTA NBA 82 82 3302 24.8 .596 .528 9.0 24.5 17.2 14.7 1.4 1.5 10.9 30.1 117 102 9.9 5.6 15.5 .225 .527 .286 .770
20 Karl Malone* 1991-92 28 UTA NBA 81 81 3054 25.4 .599 .527 8.7 24.1 16.8 13.4 1.8 1.0 11.6 30.3 118 103 9.9 5.2 15.1 .237 .526 .176 .778
21 Karl Malone* 1992-93 29 UTA NBA 82 82 3099 26.2 .612 .554 8.6 24.6 16.9 16.9 2.0 1.8 11.7 28.4 120 103 10.4 5.0 15.4 .238 .552 .200 .740
31 Chris Mullin* 1990-91 27 GSW NBA 82 82 3315 21.4 .618 .550 4.7 10.0 7.4 14.9 2.4 1.1 12.6 23.5 121 110 9.7 2.4 12.2 .176 .536 .301 .884
30 Chris Mullin* 1991-92 28 GSW NBA 81 81 3346 19.9 .586 .544 4.2 10.4 7.4 12.2 2.4 1.1 10.2 23.6 118 110 8.1 2.7 10.8 .155 .524 .366 .833
29 Chris Mullin* 1992-93 29 GSW NBA 46 46 1902 19.0 .578 .542 2.5 11.2 6.8 14.0 1.7 1.3 11.9 25.1 113 111 3.6 1.3 4.9 .122 .510 .451 .810
41 Scottie Pippen* 1990-91 25 CHI NBA 82 82 3014 20.6 .561 .529 6.5 16.6 11.6 23.5 3.2 1.9 15.1 21.8 114 102 5.9 5.4 11.2 .179 .520 .309 .706
42 Scottie Pippen* 1991-92 26 CHI NBA 82 82 3164 21.5 .555 .511 6.9 15.8 11.5 25.8 2.5 1.8 14.0 24.6 114 102 7.1 5.5 12.7 .192 .506 .200 .760
40 Scottie Pippen* 1992-93 27 CHI NBA 81 81 3123 19.2 .510 .482 7.3 16.0 11.5 24.0 2.9 1.6 14.2 23.9 108 104 3.8 4.8 8.6 .132 .473 .237 .663
45 David Robinson* 1990-91 25 SAS NBA 82 81 3095 27.4 .615 .552 12.6 24.7 19.0 10.9 2.0 6.2 13.7 26.6 119 96 9.4 7.6 17.0 .264 .552 .143 .762
44 David Robinson* 1991-92 26 SAS NBA 68 68 2564 27.5 .597 .552 11.2 24.0 17.7 11.3 3.1 7.4 12.1 24.7 118 94 7.0 6.9 13.9 .260 .551 .125 .701
43 David Robinson* 1992-93 27 SAS NBA 82 82 3211 24.2 .569 .503 8.6 24.8 17.1 15.0 2.0 5.1 12.5 26.4 113 100 6.7 6.4 13.2 .197 .501 .176 .732
51 John Stockton* 1990-91 28 UTA NBA 82 82 3103 23.4 .604 .537 1.9 6.8 4.5 57.5 3.8 0.3 20.3 20.9 120 104 9.4 4.7 14.0 .217 .507 .345 .836
50 John Stockton* 1991-92 29 UTA NBA 82 82 3002 22.8 .590 .527 2.7 7.3 5.1 53.7 4.1 0.4 20.6 19.9 120 104 8.8 4.6 13.4 .215 .482 .407 .842
49 John Stockton* 1992-93 30 UTA NBA 82 82 2863 21.3 .584 .526 2.6 6.7 4.7 49.8 3.5 0.5 20.1 19.9 118 107 7.2 3.4 10.6 .177 .486 .385 .798
Tota Tota Tota Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Shoo Shoo Shoo
Rk Player Season Age Tm Lg G GS MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT%
6 Carmelo Anthony 2011-12 27 NYK NBA 55 55 1876 21.1 .525 .463 5.4 15.9 10.6 21.0 1.7 1.0 10.8 31.8 106 102 3.7 2.6 6.2 .160 .430 .335 .804
14 Kobe Bryant 2011-12 33 LAL NBA 58 58 2232 21.9 .527 .462 3.5 11.8 7.8 23.7 1.6 0.6 11.7 35.7 105 106 4.2 2.0 6.2 .132 .430 .303 .845
18 Tyson Chandler 2011-12 29 NYK NBA 62 62 2061 18.7 .708 .679 11.8 22.7 17.2 4.3 1.4 3.4 17.1 13.0 130 99 5.8 3.6 9.5 .220 .679 .000 .689
27 Kevin Durant 2011-12 23 OKC NBA 66 66 2546 26.2 .610 .547 1.9 20.4 11.8 17.5 1.8 2.2 14.0 31.3 114 101 8.5 3.7 12.2 .230 .496 .387 .860
40 James Harden 2011-12 22 OKC NBA 62 2 1946 21.1 .660 .582 1.9 12.2 7.4 19.3 1.6 0.6 14.8 21.6 125 105 7.5 1.8 9.3 .230 .491 .390 .846
49 Andre Iguodala 2011-12 28 PHI NBA 62 62 2209 17.6 .537 .514 2.8 16.4 9.6 23.7 2.6 1.0 13.8 17.7 108 98 3.1 4.2 7.3 .158 .454 .394 .617
52 LeBron James 2011-12 27 MIA NBA 62 62 2326 30.7 .605 .554 5.0 19.7 12.6 33.6 2.6 1.7 13.3 32.0 118 97 10.0 4.5 14.5 .298 .531 .362 .771
61 Kevin Love 2011-12 23 MIN NBA 55 55 2145 25.4 .568 .497 11.6 26.4 19.0 10.0 1.1 0.9 9.2 28.8 117 104 7.6 2.3 10.0 .223 .448 .372 .824
73 Chris Paul 2011-12 26 LAC NBA 60 60 2181 27.0 .581 .522 2.3 9.4 5.8 43.8 3.8 0.2 10.8 24.3 126 104 10.4 2.3 12.7 .278 .478 .371 .861
88 Russell Westbrook 2011-12 23 OKC NBA 66 66 2331 22.9 .538 .481 5.0 9.4 7.4 29.8 2.5 0.7 14.2 32.7 108 105 5.5 2.4 7.9 .163 .457 .316 .823
89 Deron Williams 2011-12 27 NJN NBA 55 55 1999 20.3 .527 .467 1.3 9.6 5.3 46.6 1.8 0.8 16.7 30.1 106 111 3.7 0.4 4.1 .099 .407 .336 .843
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 1:19 pm
by DSMok1
Here are the stats of the nearest previous season for each player, sorted by WS/48. Definitely looks like the Dream Team had a bit of an edge, but the 2 best players are from the 2012 team (by a hair).
Code: Select all
Tota Tota Tota Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Shoo Shoo Shoo
Player Season Age Tm Lg G GS MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48 FG% 3P% FT%
LeBron James 2011-12 27 MIA NBA 62 62 2326 30.7 0.605 0.554 5.0 19.7 12.6 33.6 2.6 1.7 13.3 32.0 118 97 10.0 4.5 14.5 0.298 0.531 0.362 0.771
Chris Paul 2011-12 26 LAC NBA 60 60 2181 27.0 0.581 0.522 2.3 9.4 5.8 43.8 3.8 0.2 10.8 24.3 126 104 10.4 2.3 12.7 0.278 0.478 0.371 0.861
Michael Jordan* 1991-92 28 CHI NBA 80 80 3102 27.7 0.579 0.526 3.5 15.3 9.5 25.7 3.0 1.5 8.8 31.7 121 102 12.1 5.6 17.7 0.274 0.519 0.270 0.832
David Robinson* 1991-92 26 SAS NBA 68 68 2564 27.5 0.597 0.552 11.2 24.0 17.7 11.3 3.1 7.4 12.1 24.7 118 94 7.0 6.9 13.9 0.260 0.551 0.125 0.701
Magic Johnson* 1990-91 31 LAL NBA 79 79 2933 25.1 0.623 0.518 4.3 16.9 10.9 49.3 1.8 0.3 20.4 22.9 124 105 11.2 4.2 15.4 0.251 0.477 0.320 0.906
Karl Malone* 1991-92 28 UTA NBA 81 81 3054 25.4 0.599 0.527 8.7 24.1 16.8 13.4 1.8 1.0 11.6 30.3 118 103 9.9 5.2 15.1 0.237 0.526 0.176 0.778
Kevin Durant 2011-12 23 OKC NBA 66 66 2546 26.2 0.610 0.547 1.9 20.4 11.8 17.5 1.8 2.2 14.0 31.3 114 101 8.5 3.7 12.2 0.230 0.496 0.387 0.860
James Harden 2011-12 22 OKC NBA 62 2 1946 21.1 0.660 0.582 1.9 12.2 7.4 19.3 1.6 0.6 14.8 21.6 125 105 7.5 1.8 9.3 0.230 0.491 0.390 0.846
Kevin Love 2011-12 23 MIN NBA 55 55 2145 25.4 0.568 0.497 11.6 26.4 19.0 10.0 1.1 0.9 9.2 28.8 117 104 7.6 2.3 10.0 0.223 0.448 0.372 0.824
Clyde Drexler* 1991-92 29 POR NBA 76 76 2751 23.6 0.560 0.509 6.6 13.2 9.9 29.9 2.4 1.6 12.4 28.7 117 103 8.3 4.5 12.8 0.223 0.470 0.337 0.794
Tyson Chandler 2011-12 29 NYK NBA 62 62 2061 18.7 0.708 0.679 11.8 22.7 17.2 4.3 1.4 3.4 17.1 13.0 130 99 5.8 3.6 9.5 0.220 0.679 0.000 0.689
John Stockton* 1991-92 29 UTA NBA 82 82 3002 22.8 0.590 0.527 2.7 7.3 5.1 53.7 4.1 0.4 20.6 19.9 120 104 8.8 4.6 13.4 0.215 0.482 0.407 0.842
Charles Barkley* 1991-92 28 PHI NBA 75 75 2881 24.5 0.612 0.567 10.9 22.0 16.5 18.1 2.4 0.9 14.3 25.1 119 106 8.6 3.7 12.3 0.205 0.552 0.234 0.695
Patrick Ewing* 1991-92 29 NYK NBA 82 82 3150 22.8 0.563 0.522 8.4 24.9 16.8 8.5 1.4 5.0 10.7 27.2 112 98 6.1 6.9 13.0 0.198 0.522 0.167 0.738
Scottie Pippen* 1991-92 26 CHI NBA 82 82 3164 21.5 0.555 0.511 6.9 15.8 11.5 25.8 2.5 1.8 14.0 24.6 114 102 7.1 5.5 12.7 0.192 0.506 0.200 0.760
Russell Westbrook 2011-12 23 OKC NBA 66 66 2331 22.9 0.538 0.481 5.0 9.4 7.4 29.8 2.5 0.7 14.2 32.7 108 105 5.5 2.4 7.9 0.163 0.457 0.316 0.823
Carmelo Anthony 2011-12 27 NYK NBA 55 55 1876 21.1 0.525 0.463 5.4 15.9 10.6 21.0 1.7 1.0 10.8 31.8 106 102 3.7 2.6 6.2 0.160 0.430 0.335 0.804
Larry Bird* 1991-92 35 BOS NBA 45 45 1662 21.0 0.547 0.500 3.2 24.6 14.4 26.9 1.3 1.2 13.1 24.7 112 104 3.0 2.5 5.5 0.159 0.466 0.406 0.926
Andre Iguodala 2011-12 28 PHI NBA 62 62 2209 17.6 0.537 0.514 2.8 16.4 9.6 23.7 2.6 1.0 13.8 17.7 108 98 3.1 4.2 7.3 0.158 0.454 0.394 0.617
Chris Mullin* 1991-92 28 GSW NBA 81 81 3346 19.9 0.586 0.544 4.2 10.4 7.4 12.2 2.4 1.1 10.2 23.6 118 110 8.1 2.7 10.8 0.155 0.524 0.366 0.833
Kobe Bryant 2011-12 33 LAL NBA 58 58 2232 21.9 0.527 0.462 3.5 11.8 7.8 23.7 1.6 0.6 11.7 35.7 105 106 4.2 2.0 6.2 0.132 0.430 0.303 0.845
Deron Williams 2011-12 27 NJN NBA 55 55 1999 20.3 0.527 0.467 1.3 9.6 5.3 46.6 1.8 0.8 16.7 30.1 106 111 3.7 0.4 4.1 0.099 0.407 0.336 0.843
Re: Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2012 6:16 pm
by schtevie
Perhaps I am getting overly grumpy in my old age, but how can a serious conversation on these intertemporal comparisons be had without, in advance, laying bare the specific assumptions about how the take into account the highly relevant changes seen in the NBA/FIBA game over time? Egads!
The 1992 team was composed of players (and coaches) who matured, basically considering the 3 point shot to be an affectation. Not so much for the current team. Might that maybe have an effect on the counterfactual? And then there are all other adaptations to rule changes and (net positive) defensive innovations over the two decades that would swing mightily to the current generations advantage. Might these considerations overturn any "calculated" differential, not taking these factors into account? I wonder.
If the exercise is to determine whether 1992's players were somehow, "in total", farther/or less far out on the tail of a distribution of some offensive-biased measure than 2012's crop, implicitly assuming a notional competition between the two would take place abstracting from the actual evolution (i.e. improvement) of the game over time, what is the point? And why should one care?