APBRmetrics

Okay, everybody: how much was each player/chip in the trade worth monetarily, and how would you expect each team's efficiency differential to change next season?

Here are the details:
EDIT: Updated with Duhon, Clark, and Second Round Pick. Salaries from http://storytellerscontracts.com/ and http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages ... /index.jsp

EDIT 2: Added Eyenga and another Second Round Pick.

EDIT 3: Removed Eyenga & second round pick, added McRoberts.

EDIT 4: Updated with final details from http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/ken-b ... s-overhaul

Going to make a bunch of assumptions here, Smokey.

Dwight: Let's assume this back stuff is moot. Maybe he just took it easy in the 2nd half of the season, because, well, why jeopardize anything? He'll be 27 this season, so probably done improving. Solid plateau stage. He's paid 19.5m. I'd say he's worth about 27mil*, for a real value of +7.5 mil.
*Depends on your projection for wins * value of a win, obviously... I figured loosely he's worth about 16 wins, mainly looking at his RAPM (career +4.2) and approx. minutes, with a win being worth about 1.7million.

Iggy: Criminally underrated, +1.7 last year and +1.8 the year before. He's a minutes whore who never gets injured (huge positives). 29 and 30 for his two signed years. Players like him (reliant on athleticism, not a top notch shooter, shockingly almost @ 25k NBA mins) generally decline sooner than normal, but his production has been quite consistent, so I'll peg him for about the same. Will be paid 31mil over the 2 years, and will likely produce in the ballpark of 19 wins, or about 32mil real value. So we'll give him a +1mil hard line.

Bynum: The major question mark/red flag with him will always be ability to stay on the court. Further, he's a (minor) flight risk for Philly. RAPM has never been very high on Bynum (+0.2 last year, consistent around that margin) which kinda shocks me. He's a guy more conventional-advanced stats (like PER or WS) love. Last season was his first over 2k minutes, and he'll still just be 25 - for an emerging center who has been held back by freak accidents/injuries, I would expect him to continue to improve. (Perhaps more so now that he'll be featured in Philly) If he maintains only slight-above average production for about a 2.5k minute block, he's only worth about 5 or 6 wins for the next season (making him a bit overpaid) but I'm going to side a bit more with a winshares type outlook and view him in the most optimistic light, with about a 10 win block, meaning he's adequately paid. (Buut, @ ~17 million, hardly a bargain)

JRich: Somewhat in the decline phase of his career, JRich, primarily a scorer, has seen 2 straight below average PER years. He'll be 32/33/34 for the life of his contract, and I can't really envision a Nash like 30s, although his main skill (shooting) has persisted. RAPM still likes him, +0.6 last year, +0.3 the year before over 2700 minutes, so even if he declines a bit, he's still average. which has value. He's been kinda a minutes horse over his career, and I expect him to be featured a lot on a Philly team starved for both offense and especially outside shooting. (At least for this coming year; who knows what will happen in 2 years!) He'll make about 18.5million over 3 years, so if he churns about roughly average production w/ ~5.5k minutes, should be worth about 11.5 wins, or 19.5 million... +1million.

AAA: Although heralded for his defense, he IMO embodied the classic case of a guy who, once lauded for his defense, completely stops actually playing defense. (See also: Butler, Caron) I thought the Nuggets overpaid for him last year, but it looks like a genius move now parlaying him into Iguodala. The biggest wildcard in this trade though given he's signed to the longest deal, and perhaps has some upside. He'll be 27/28/29/30 over these 4 years. RAPM over his career sees him as -0.8, with last year -0.7 and the year before also -0.7. Has never had an above average PER. Has been pretty consistent w/ 33mpg the previous two years with some minor health woes, but nothing serious. If we assume slight negative production relative to a +0 type player, esp. factoring in some minimal decay @30, but overcompensate with being force fed minutes on a truly garbage team (the Magic are going to have to play SOMEONE) we allow for about 17 wins over those 4 years, coming at a cost of 31 million. In real value terms, this contract is perhaps not that bad, maybe -2million.

Harrington: His entire contract isn't totally relevant here, since from everything I've read pointed towards 2nd year only being half guaranteed and last not at all, to the tune of probably having to pay Al about 10 million for this next season. (The 6.6 plus half of 7.1) Don't know about you guys, but I enjoyed him on The Association. Seems like a classy, funny guy. Had a slight resurgence last year, posting an above average PER, after a somewhat dismal 2010/11. RAPM must love his flex 4-ness as he posted a +1.4 last year. (-0.4 in his "down" year the year before over a complete season, -0.9 the year before... Suffice to say he's bumped around a bit, depending solely on role) I don't really know what the Magic will get out of him, but something like 2000 minutes and a little over 3 wins, something like worth 5 million for a total cost of -5million. However, the point with Harrington I believe is technically to aid the Magic tanking whilst providing a flexible chip in the future to dump/clear books. Clearly, he's not a positive asset in the basketball sense.

Vuk + Harkless: Too little is known about Vuk, as we have 800 total NBA minutes. He'll be a 22 year old big man on a rookie deal who wasn't terrible and has some upside, but was a midround 1st. These normally are slight +$ ev as a general rule, so I wont attempt to actually project w/ his -0.6 RAPM. Same with Harkless, who was a mid 1st, although some feel this was a bit of a reach. (Specifically Hollinger, I don't know enough about him to view the pick, other than to treat it as a NBA caliber player on a near 4 year min, which typically constitutes value)

The 1st round picks are all protected, and generally sold for 1-3 million, although the current CBA has tightened this up a bit w/ the 3 mil max/year you can actually earn or whatnot by throwing into trades.

So monetarily, we "could" view this as:
LAL: Giving up ~+0mil and a 1st protected (2 million?) for ~7.5, or +5.5million.
DEN: Giving up AAA (-2) and Harington (-5?) and a first (2mil I suppose) for Iggy (+1). to me this is more Denver clearing their books of 2 iffy contracts and a 1st on a super deep team for a legit stud who is compensated properly... Especially as moving Harington out means more minutes for Faried. Perhaps a +6 mil maneuver.
PHI: Although they landed the 2nd best player overall in the swap, they had to give up the 3rd best player and a few rookie deals (Vuk, Hark, 1st) of which are probably worth +6 mil or so, for a ~0 player. They also got JRich (+1) We could suggest then the hard line of -5 mil.
ORL: Rounding things out, giving up Dwight (+7.5) and JRich (+1) for 3 1sts (net perhaps +6, varies by a bit according to whatever slot they actually fall into) and AAA/harington (-2, -5) and Harkless/Vuk (+4) or about -6.5.

Need to tip your cap to Masai Ujiri. Although the Lakers made out with the best overall player, the Nuggets somehow got in their and tossed some negative assets for a positive contributor.

As far as efficiency differential projections...
Lakers were +2 SRS and swapping Dwight for Bynum. Any projection would have to incorporate their other major move, which is Nash. So I am going to leave this alone, only to say I think they're going to be a great team...
Denver finished +3.1 SRS while basically constantly fiddling with things, specifically the midseason Nene/McGee swap. Going from AAA to Iggy is an immediate improvement, obviously, but so is no more Al Harrington. Can I just say I think they, too, will be "better"? Since they will!
Philly had a +3.6 SRS but basically has a complete makeover, shipping off their 3 best players (Brand, Iggy, Lou Williams). Bynum is a fine building block but this team got a ton worse, just a truly horrific summer.
Orlando has no more Dwight, no more Ryan Anderson, and a slew of unproductive players. Bottom 2 in the league, and wont really be entertaining to watch.

Thanks for the chart DSMok1 and for the analysis Rob.

I think there is a very good chance Bynum walks unless Philly feeds him the ball a lot and / or he likes being close to his original home area. Doug Collins and the 76ers are depending pretty heavily on Jrue Holiday making Bynum happy.

(On Twitter just that much from DSMok1 would take 12 chopped up tweets or leaving the medium and the analysis Rob would take 50 straight tweets or a link to someplace like here. My brief response would take 4 tweets. 3 posts here vs 66 tweets or 3 abandonments of the limited medium to a place where substantive writing can occur. It seems appropriate that this exchange took place here.)

The Lakers are going to be weird to watch, I think. At least the starting 5. The ability to defend for those 5 is all over the place. Ron Artest doesn't seem to be as good a defender as he used to be, so their guard/wing defense is definitely going to be sketchy at times, at least for a team that wants to contend.

Now that I think about it, I'd probably pair Nash and Kobe as little as possible. I don't think their offensive games match very well and opposing guards will probably kill them (Nash and Kobe defending Westbrook and Harden?); if they somehow get a good defensive combo guard things would look good though

Kobe - Nash only has to happen about 18 minutes per game. It will probably be more, but I agree that it might be better in the low 20s than the high 20s.

They should be top 5 on both offense and defense. Maybe top 3 on each.

J.E. wrote:The Lakers are going to be weird to watch, I think. At least the starting 5. The ability to defend for those 5 is all over the place. Ron Artest doesn't seem to be as good a defender as he used to be, so their guard/wing defense is definitely going to be sketchy at times, at least for a team that wants to contend.

Now that I think about it, I'd probably pair Nash and Kobe as little as possible. I don't think their offensive games match very well and opposing guards will probably kill them (Nash and Kobe defending Westbrook and Harden?); if they somehow get a good defensive combo guard things would look good though

Nash has never failed to make his teammates look good offensively while Dwight has never failed to make his teammates look good on offense. I think you're overstating the Nash-Kobe tandem. You used Westy and Harden as somehow a counter argument, but you didn't mention that those two make any defense look bad. (Except maybe Conley/TAllen)

I also think Ron Artest's demise is widely overstated. Dude can still defend with the best of them. Metta actually had the highest % of impactful win EV minutes in the league last year, so at the minimum the coaching staff still very much believes in his ability to defend.

From an impact perspective, they remind me of the 2011 Lakers.

Pau and LO had a career year, Kobe had 10 win shares and Bynum was very efficient. They combined for 41.7 win shares, although Pau and Kobe flamed out in the playoffs. Kobe due to age probably, Pau also looked exhausted or something.

I would expect a similar amount from next year's Lakers, and a 57-61 win season assuming decent health. The 2011 Lakers had 58 pythagorean wins.

Has LeBron guarded D Howard? I can see it in the Finals. (Bosh on P Gasol.)

Crow wrote:Has LeBron guarded D Howard? I can see it in the Finals. (Bosh on P Gasol.)

Yes he has guarded him before, I recall him being on Dwight in their last meeting. I bet the Heat save that for certain possessions though. In 2011 Dwight struggled scoring on Joel Anthony so it can be done in other ways. Also I imagine he won't be getting as many touches offensively.

Thankfully LA lost Odom in a bad trade, but they have a great team now.