APBRmetrics

https://sportsbook.gamingsystem.ag/spor ... goryId=502

EAST WEST

I'd probably take the under on Philly(health), LAL(health), Phoenix(roster), over on New Orleans

That philly line looks very juicy

Nice, was waiting for these

The best I might like the most is actually under for OKC 60.5. They were at 57 last year PW and the league got much better IMO, not to mention they're going on 2 years of almost perfect health, with his playing style Westbrook is going to start getting banged up and putting in 60-65 G seasons, IMO. Winning as long as they're under 61 Ws seems like great value

I also really like the over for Orlando (they're one of the 3 most skilled teams in the league IMO) and under for the Suns and Kings, both who are messes

These numbers average 41.367 wins per team, and also rank the West better than the East by 2.5 wins per team. That's about the same disparity as last year.

...the league got much better IMO...

How did the league get much better?
Average age last year was 26.7, same as recent seasons.
Is there a great crop of rookies coming in? Were there an unusual number of injuries that we don't expect this year?

Dr Positivity wrote:Nice, was waiting for these

The best I might like the most is actually under for OKC 60.5. They were at 57 last year PW and the league got much better IMO, not to mention they're going on 2 years of almost perfect health, with his playing style Westbrook is going to start getting banged up and putting in 60-65 G seasons, IMO. Winning as long as they're under 61 Ws seems like great value

I also really like the over for Orlando (they're one of the 3 most skilled teams in the league IMO) and under for the Suns and Kings, both who are messes

Once the season gets closer, I'm sure we'll have our annual predictions thread, and we'll see what happens!

(Thunder fan speaking...)

Dumb question: are these adjusted to the betting public? i.e. are these influenced purely by estimates of the future or are they also influenced by bettors/the market?

I think the league is better because the bottom tier really improved, because of injuries and massive tanking last year

Charlotte - new coach, Sessions/Gordon, health - should be bad but much more respectable than last year
Washington - Played decently with Nene, picked up Okafor - should be good defensively
Cleveland - Irving/Varejao healthy
New Orleans - healthy Gordon, added Anthony Davis
Nets - Obviously should have a massive improvement as a whole
Golden State - healthy Bogut, Curry, should be much improved if healthy
Toronto - Added Lowry, healthy Bargnani
Minnesota - health, roster additions = improvement

Plus some other teams like Detroit who played close to .500 after a 4-20 start under Frank, Sacramento who added Brooks and Robinson, who could play better. I don't think there's nearly as many easy wins this year as last season

It's a zero-sum game, so the whole league can't be better obviously (I don't think that's what you meant anyway).

I'd borrow from mechanics terminology, and say the moment of inertia of the league is going to decrease (i.e. more teams getting closer to the middle, rather than spreading out to the two extremes).

The whole league could be better, if a bunch more players improve or stay healthy, relative to the numbers that decline or get hurt.
But some players always get hurt. Unless last season was a really bad year for that, the whole league should not improve.

I also don't see how redistribution of talent could make the league better or more competitive. Maybe fewer easy wins, but also fewer elite teams?

It's nice to be excited about the coming season. A team's fan propaganda would have you believe everyone on the roster should be playing at their career best, and no one will miss significant time. But on average, things are gonna be pretty average.