APBRmetrics

I know this is a stats board, but I think it might be OK to have one thread where we talk about impressions we get from actually watching the games?

Houston:
Lin/Harden/Parsons/Asik look solid. Morris looked god-awful @DET, either dropping passes out-of-bounds that would have led to layups, or catching the passes but then missing the layups (might have been easy dunks for a lot of the league's PF starters). I think Patterson is starting over him ever since

Toronto:
Lowry has been great but just now sprained his ankle. Fields is struggling to get off his shot.
I love Valanciunas, he just seems extremely motivated and always hustles up and down the court. He beats himself up after making errors. I think he's been pretty much used to winning and don't wants to get used to losing, which seems like a good thing.
Rarely does RAPM disagree more with team rotation though. Amir Johnson is ranked #9 in the entire league, yet he comes from the bench and plays ~20M a game. RAPM would also give Calderon's minutes to John Lucas.

Detroit:
Kind of weird to watch. Monroe seems confused at times after catching the ball, not knowing what to do with it. Knight and Stuckey (who seems to be dealing with migraines?) are playing like absolute garbage. Might be *the* worst team in the league. I've never seen a team shoot that many unforced airballs/side_of_the_backboards. I think they're actively sabotaging Lawrence Frank. Whether the players actually are or not, it doesn't matter, they should just fire him. My personal favorite to replace him would be SVG

Minnesota:
Kirilenko looks great, Pekovic and Budinger look solid. There was one situation with Roy where he lost the ball two possessions in a row while dribbling; certainly wasn't pretty. Him and Williams are shooting horrible %s. Doesn't look like this will be the year where Williams makes the leap. Maybe on a different team?

Knicks:
Love them. Extremely deep. Very good chance to finish #2 in the east.

Lakers:
Maybe it's just me but I find their offense ugly to watch. Still think they should bring Nash off the bench and limit the minutes where Nash and Kobe share the court as much as possible. Their 2nd unit is super-bad, too. Nash might bring out the best out of those guys. They might want to gamble on Delonte, their guard defense looks extremely bad with Kobe and Nash on the court. They have too many defensive holes and are too unathletic to be a serious contender

From the bits of Houston I've seen, I'd agree that Lin. Harden Asik and Parsons look good. Having Asik screen, and then spacing the corners with the forwards is a good use of spacing, and Donatas and Jones should be fine in that role. I think they should throw money at Millsap to start at PF in the offseason. Lin-Harden-Parsons-Millsap-Asik is really good(Combined~+12 by RAPM), and the pieces seem to fit together.

I'm spoiled as a Spurs fan(Hooray for no geographical link forcing me onto a team), but I don't like the fact that Matt Bonner's minutes have been low. I think Pop is sorting out the bench big minutes, but I hope he plays Bonner as one of them(or perhaps is traded for Amir Johnson in a swap of quietly awesome underrated guys).

I was watching OKC-TOR earlier, and Collison was playing some minutes in garbage time. He must be one of/the best player in a cleanup crew, though I guess Bonner and Amir are in the running.

The only stuff of Minnesota I've seen was the first half or so against Brooklyn, which was disappointing to watch, as it just seemed like the Nets were getting whatever they wanted. Realistically, I think the Nets were just hot, potentially influenced by the occasion and I should watch them more.

I like the Knicks, but I don't know how much it was they looked good, or the 76ers being bad. Nick Young took the most Nick Young shot imaginable in the turn around, fadeaway 3 from the corner.

J.E. wrote: Lakers:
Maybe it's just me but I find their offense ugly to watch. Still think they should bring Nash off the bench and limit the minutes where Nash and Kobe share the court as much as possible. Their 2nd unit is super-bad, too. Nash might bring out the best out of those guys. They might want to gamble on Delonte, their guard defense looks extremely bad with Kobe and Nash on the court. They have too many defensive holes and are too unathletic to be a serious contender

First thing which came to mind as well. Having Nash on the court while letting Bryant or Artest initiating the offense and Nash standing on the perimeter somewhere seems like a pretty useless strategy. Nash's best trait is his ability to find his teammates in optimal spots, reducing turnovers for them and increasing scoring efficiency. That could help the Lakers' bench the most.

The Lakers have some pretty useless guards with Duhon or Morris, while West could be helpful with his ability to play SG on offense while defend the quicker backcourt player. Running with Nash/West, West/Bryant or Blake/West does not seem like a bad idea.

Their SF position seems to lack either skill or athleticism, running with Jamison as SF does not seem to be a good idea. He seems to be best used as PF.

For Houston, Marcus Morris got the start in the first game because Patterson was injured. Morris had a disappointing rookie season, but he's had perhaps his two best games as a professional in the last two outings. The Rockets are overloaded at PF -- Patterson, Morris, Terrence Jones, Royce White, Donatas Motiejunas. If I had to guess, one or two of those players will be traded this season. Also, look for Terrence Jones to eventually make his way into the rotation (if he isn't dealt first).

I like this thread.

J.E. wrote:
Toronto:
Lowry has been great but just now sprained his ankle. Fields is struggling to get off his shot.
I love Valanciunas, he just seems extremely motivated and always hustles up and down the court. He beats himself up after making errors. I think he's been pretty much used to winning and don't wants to get used to losing, which seems like a good thing.
Rarely does RAPM disagree more with team rotation though. Amir Johnson is ranked #9 in the entire league, yet he comes from the bench and plays ~20M a game. RAPM would also give Calderon's minutes to John Lucas.

With Amir, I think the organization is pretty tied to a Barg/JV frontcourt going forward, even if it isn't the best thing for them. Same deal w/ Calderon, but for a different reason: They're showcasing him. He is very unlikely to be with the team, perhaps they can flip him for anything by the deadline. They also probably don't realize Lucas can play so are stuck w/ the vet getting the time out of default.

Minnesota:
Kirilenko looks great, Pekovic and Budinger look solid. There was one situation with Roy where he lost the ball two possessions in a row while dribbling; certainly wasn't pretty. Him and Williams are shooting horrible %s. Doesn't look like this will be the year where Williams makes the leap. Maybe on a different team?

If DWill was going to take a leap, it was with Love out. Not sure how many Wolves games you've watched, but I love Dante Cunningham. I'd add Luke Ridnour to your list of disappointments, although I believe his back is hurting him. It's affecting his play visually.

I have little faith in Roy, I thought he was totally done and I was surprised to hear about his return to the NBA. Wolves have played better w/o him, but it's a small sample. I don't mind riding him a little longer.

Talk about a deep team though, especially considering they don't have Rubio or Love right now.

Lakers:
Maybe it's just me but I find their offense ugly to watch. Still think they should bring Nash off the bench and limit the minutes where Nash and Kobe share the court as much as possible. Their 2nd unit is super-bad, too. Nash might bring out the best out of those guys. They might want to gamble on Delonte, their guard defense looks extremely bad with Kobe and Nash on the court. They have too many defensive holes and are too unathletic to be a serious contender

I actually have a different take; I think the problem is the Pau-Dwight pairing. I'd bring Pau off the bench, and stagger the minutes as much which in turn would help deal with their big depth issue. Antawn Jamison is horrible, but I like the idea of a stretch 4 alongside Dwight and paired w/ Nash, for better spacing/ease of Nash's talents, and because if anyone can mitigate the damage of a small ball lineup (esp. w/ Jamison) it's Dwight.
Mike Brown is certainly on borrowed time.

Bobbofitos wrote: I actually have a different take; I think the problem is the Pau-Dwight pairing. I'd bring Pau off the bench, and stagger the minutes as much which in turn would help deal with their big depth issue. Antawn Jamison is horrible, but I like the idea of a stretch 4 alongside Dwight and paired w/ Nash, for better spacing/ease of Nash's talents, and because if anyone can mitigate the damage of a small ball lineup (esp. w/ Jamison) it's Dwight.

While I agree with your assessment regarding the depth at the big position, I disagree with your solution. You don't need to seperate Howard and Gasol, because they not only play well off each other, but also can play a lot of minutes. For Nash and Bryant you have to manage the minutes more, because neither can play 40 minutes per game, and they don't seem to have a synergy effect, thus, it makes sense to bring one of those two off the bench instead while looking to rather have them seperately on the floor in order to maximize their talents.
For the bigs the substitution pattern must be changed in a way, that allows to have at least either Gasol or Howard at all times on the court.

Probably not real news but the 76ers have a big problem with shot creation. With all the terrible shots Nick Young takes, right now he's only one of three guys that can create their own shot consistently, with the other two being Holiday and Thad Young. Turner gets stuffed quite often when he tries to do it. In their last game they were starting Kwame Brown..
Bynum and especially Richardson (both injured) should help their offense but even when healthy, Bynum is still a downgrade from Brand offensively and so is Richardson in comparison with Williams. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished worse than 20th in ORtg.
What's their longterm plan? Bynum is certainly not a star, at least according to +/-. They also sent a future first rounder to Orlando with that trade. They'll be stuck in no-man's land for a while, it seems

Bobbofitos wrote:Talk about a deep team though

Right now they have two players with non negative impact playing for them (Kirilenko is listed as negative, but that's because my version of RAPM gave him the rookie treatment). How is that "deep"?
Cunningham always seemed like a Stromile Swift/Tyrus Thomas kind of guy: Lanky PF with low BBall IQ. Is that far off? I'll try to watch him a bit

J.E. wrote:Probably not real news but the 76ers have a big problem with shot creation. With all the terrible shots Nick Young takes, right now he's only one of three guys that can create their own shot consistently, with the other two being Holiday and Thad Young. Turner gets stuffed quite often when he tries to do it. In their last game they were starting Kwame Brown..
Bynum and especially Richardson (both injured) should help their offense but even when healthy, Bynum is still a downgrade from Brand offensively and so is Richardson in comparison with Williams. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished worse than 20th in ORtg.
What's their longterm plan? Bynum is certainly not a star, at least according to +/-. They also sent a future first rounder to Orlando with that trade. They'll be stuck in no-man's land for a while, it seems

Unless they believe Bynum is in fact a star. It's certainly backed up by more conventional numbers; it's really just +/- that sours on him.

Bobbofitos wrote:Talk about a deep team though

Right now they have two players with non negative impact playing for them (Kirilenko is listed as negative, but that's because my version of RAPM gave him the rookie treatment). How is that "deep"?
Cunningham always seemed like a Stromile Swift/Tyrus Thomas kind of guy: Lanky PF with low BBall IQ. Is that far off? I'll try to watch him a bit

It's deep because I don't put all my eggs in the RAPM basket. With Love and Rubio healthy, they are able to move Ridnour and Derrick Williams to the bench.

Ridnour is a quality backup (aside from Andre Miller, I can't really think of a backup PG I'd want more than Ridnour) and although D-Will has his issues, against a 2nd line he has his strengths.

Budinger has been a productive starter before and he's young... He should thrive off the bench. Stiesma is a 2nd year player who performed adequately defensively, he certainly seems like an above average backup center.

Kirilenko is a former APM all star and recently was seen dominating Euroball and the Olympics. I can't imagine he wont be viewed as a positive across every metric board. Cunningham is a stud defender unlike Swift. I have no idea what Tyrus Thomas's issues are. It looked like he got everything together for one campaign, but never has come close since. The biggest issue with Dante Cunningham is he's somewhat of a non positional guy - his best position 2 nights ago was in a super small ball lineup as the 5 alongside AK. It seems he can play the 4, depending on who is your center. I have trouble buying him as a regular starter though.

Right now they have two players with non negative impact playing for them...

If a team is -2 when a given player is on the court, and they're -5 when he's off, is that a "negative impact" by the player?

I have to say, I love watching Andrew Bogut, although his 20 minute limit is frustrating. Also Harrison Barnes has been better than I thought this early on.

I saw the GSW-MEM game live. Really like Memphis. Once again, they will probably surprise people, but only because nobody watches them play.

Does Barnes hang on the perimeter by preference / offensive or defensive design?
2nd lowest TRB% of any player 6-8 or taller playing 20+ minutes per game. Only Novak lower. 11th lowest amongst all players of that height. Tied with Udoh. http://bkref.com/tiny/1hx0u

Actually, maybe. His biggest strength so far has been getting out and scoring in transition.

The W's are 5th in DREB% right now, so it's not a major concern of mine. They must be doing something right. Although now that Bogut is on the shelf, all bets are off.

Mike G wrote:

Right now they have two players with non negative impact playing for them...

If a team is -2 when a given player is on the court, and they're -5 when he's off, is that a "negative impact" by the player?

It really depends. If me and my friend play with LeBron, Wade, DHoward and CP3, and they're -2 with him on the court, -5 with me, he's obviously not having a positive impact (compared to league average, anyway). There are other scenarios where the -2 player would have a positive impact though

Indeed, if one player could make LeBron/Wade/Dwight/Paul a losing team, that player should not be on the court or in the league; nor should the coach be.

But since half the teams in a league are going to be outscored, and more than half of the players are below average, there will be hundreds of players who are neither above average nor "negative contributors".

Just as a team that goes from 20-62 one year to 34-48 the next year has made a positive correction; a team that goes from -5 PPG to -2 PPG, with one player substitution, has found a player with positive impact.
How could it be otherwise? Non-trivial example?

Mike G wrote:a team that goes from -5 PPG to -2 PPG, with one player substitution, has found a player with positive impact. How could it be otherwise?

That would only be true if the player being subbed out was precisely average. In J.E.'s example, LeBron/Wade/Dwight/CP3 are all +5 players, so even if the 5th guy was average they should be winning by 20 pts/100 poss. If they're losing by 5 pts/100 instead, the 5th guy is, by definition, a -25 player. You sub me in and we only lose by 2 pts/100, I suppose you could say that was a positive substitution, but I'm still a -22 player. Even if you compare me to NBA replacement level (something like -3.35) instead of average, it's quite inaccurate to say I am a player with "positive impact" in any context-neutral sense.