APBRmetrics

Per IPV, there are a select group of rookies showing their muscle on defense.

• - We have Jared Sullinger up at +0.90, and if you listen to Doc Rivers, that is not a fluke. I had been trying to find a way to start a "Sullinger for ROY" campaign, but decided to keep the details of that to myself until the case was strong enough to pass the giggle test (which it currently is not).
  
  - Draymond Green is at +0.75, and from what I can see with my own eyes (maybe EvanZ can add something here), this guy has a chance to be a beast on D.
  
  - The 3 other guys > 0 (though each are right around 0) are Jeff Taylor, Festus Ezeli, and Andrew Nicholson. I'm less inclined to believe these for the moment, given MP. But there's already enough evidence to lead one to believe that Sullinger and Green are indeed the real deal on D.

As a reminder, IPV is basically a rapm model on defense, using previous year rapm (defense) as a prior, and using a reasonably negative prior for rookies (who tend to not play D).

talkingpractice wrote:Per IPV, there are a select group of rookies showing their muscle on defense.

• - We have Jared Sullinger up at +0.90, and if you listen to Doc Rivers, that is not a fluke. I had been trying to find a way to start a "Sullinger for ROY" campaign, but decided to keep the details of that to myself until the case was strong enough to pass the giggle test (which it currently is not).
  
  - Draymond Green is at +0.75, and from what I can see with my own eyes (maybe EvanZ can add something here), this guy has a chance to be a beast on D.
  
  - The 3 other guys > 0 (though each are right around 0) are Jeff Taylor, Festus Ezeli, and Andrew Nicholson. I'm less inclined to believe these for the moment, given MP. But there's already enough evidence to lead one to believe that Sullinger and Green are indeed the real deal on D.

As a reminder, IPV is basically a rapm model on defense, using previous year rapm (defense) as a prior, and using a reasonably negative prior for rookies (who tend to not play D).

I would rank the rookies (overall):
1. Drummond
2. Lillard / Davis (Davis per minute, Lillard overall contribution)
4. Sullinger

That's based on a synthesis of xRAPM, ASPM, and ezPM.