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2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Wed May 22, 2013 8:24 pm
by Mike G
Preview: Lineup productions through the first 2 rounds of playoffs.
Code: Select all
eW/G .Pacers pos Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.130 Paul George SF 42 .510 19.1 7.6 4.8 3.3 1.5 3.1 .5 1.50
.107 Roy Hibbert C 35 .533 17.2 10.6 1.9 4.0 .2 2.2 2.6 1.48
.092 David West PF 35 .524 18.8 7.6 2.6 2.8 .8 2.4 .7 1.27
.083 George Hill PG 34 .538 18.3 4.4 4.9 1.7 1.0 2.3 .3 1.18
.074 Lance Stephenson SG 34 .502 11.6 9.2 4.2 2.0 1.2 1.9 .1 1.05
.024 D.J. Augustin PG 18 .551 16.3 2.2 1.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 .0 .64
.016 Gerald Green SF 8 .567 22.2 4.1 1.3 2.3 .0 1.9 .4 1.00
.007 Tyler Hansbrough PF 14 .445 10.5 8.6 .9 6.1 1.0 2.7 .0 .23
.006 Ian Mahinmi C 8 .409 6.9 11.7 .5 6.3 .0 2.7 3.0 .38
.005 Sam Young SG 5 .400 8.5 9.5 2.1 4.8 .6 1.8 .6 .45
.001 Orlando Johnson SG 2 .333 13.6 3.7 .0 .0 .0 1.8 .0 .19
.000 Jeff Pendergraph PF 6 .318 5.6 9.9 .6 7.3 .0 1.6 .5 -.02
-.001 Ben Hansbrough PG 1 .000 .0 4.7 7.9 2.2 .0 4.6 2.2 -.26
.545 240
eW/G .Heat pos Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.218 LeBron James PF 39 .600 30.0 7.6 9.4 1.5 1.5 3.3 .2 2.65
.104 Chris Bosh C 32 .564 18.1 10.7 2.6 3.6 .8 1.6 2.3 1.56
.098 Dwyane Wade SG 29 .486 17.0 6.0 9.0 2.2 2.1 3.2 .8 1.60
.064 Ray Allen SG 25 .621 22.3 4.6 2.9 2.0 1.1 1.7 .3 1.24
.057 Chris Andersen C 14 .768 26.0 10.4 1.2 5.3 .6 1.7 3.0 1.99
.051 Norris Cole PG 22 .725 20.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 1.2 2.1 .0 1.11
.050 Mario Chalmers PG 27 .488 11.2 4.0 8.4 4.0 1.5 2.0 .1 .91
.040 Udonis Haslem PF 18 .622 16.7 9.2 1.0 4.7 2.1 1.9 .7 1.10
.008 Mike Miller SF 5 .353 9.0 6.1 8.2 3.9 .0 .8 .0 .83
.007 Rashard Lewis PF 3 .500 16.2 5.7 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 1.16
.000 Joel Anthony C 2 .500 7.5 11.0 .0 7.8 2.0 5.9 2.0 .01
-.001 James Jones SF 2 .750 9.3 4.9 .0 2.2 .0 2.2 .0 -.19
-.006 Shane Battier SF 23 .435 7.2 3.4 1.2 4.3 .5 .5 .3 -.12
.691 240
Pacers' sum to .545 eWins/G, Heat to .691. They can't win 1.236 games per game; so dividing both by that number, it's Mia .56 - .44 Ind
The equivalent Pythagorean ratio is .62 to .38; about 3 ppg to Miami; most likely resulting in a 4-2 Heat series.
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Wed May 22, 2013 9:12 pm
by Mike G
Side by side, some summary stats.
Code: Select all
.Indiana Min WS/G WS/48 PER e480 eW/G .Miami mpg WS/G WS/48 PER e480 eW/G
George 498 .120 .139 17.1 1.50 .130 LeBron 355 .246 .299 27.3 2.65 .218
West 419 .094 .129 16.2 1.27 .092 Bosh 289 .134 .200 18.8 1.56 .104
Hibbert 418 .130 .179 19.4 1.48 .107 Wade 263 .083 .137 17.6 1.60 .098
Stephenson 409 .078 .110 12.9 1.05 .074 Chalmers 239 .071 .128 11.7 .91 .050
Hill 406 .098 .139 15.7 1.18 .083 Allen 223 .118 .228 19.2 1.24 .064
Augustin 218 .051 .134 11.6 .64 .024 Battier 208 .035 .072 4.8 -.12 -.006
Hansbrough 170 .016 .055 9.1 .23 .007 Cole 199 .094 .203 16.6 1.11 .051
Mahinmi 92 .005 .029 8.2 .38 .006 Haslem 159 .070 .189 16.7 1.10 .040
Green 91 .018 .114 15.6 1.00 .016 Andersen 123 .108 .378 29.2 1.99 .057
Pendergraph 66 -.006 -.054 .4 -.02 .000 Miller 44 .004 .044 6.9 .83 .008
Young 59 .006 .056 7.8 .45 .005 Lewis 26 .004 .074 15.2 1.16 .007
Johnson 19 -.004 -.121 .1 .19 .001 Anthony 17 -.003 -.071 .1 .01 .000
BHansbrough 15 -.008 -.304 -6.3 -.26 -.001 Jones 15 .001 .037 3.9 -.19 -.001
totals .597 .597 14.5 5.45 .545 .totals .964 .964 17.7 6.91 .691
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Thu May 23, 2013 10:47 am
by Mike G
Heat 1, Pacers 0
score: 103-102
Pyth Wins: .53 - .47 , eWins .52 - .48
Overtime game -- 530 player minutes per win.
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.18 Lebron James Mia 47 .545 25.4 9.2 9.3 .0 3.1 2.3 2.02
.17 Chris Andersen Mia 19 1.00 50.7 10.9 .0 1.8 1.8 5.4 4.62
.12 Dwyane Wade Mia 41 .559 19.1 6.4 5.3 2.7 2.7 .9 1.54
.11 Paul George Ind 47 .628 25.9 3.7 4.2 .0 4.6 .0 1.21
.08 David West Ind 41 .619 28.2 5.3 1.0 .0 3.5 .0 1.08
.07 D.J. Augustin Ind 14 .800 28.6 .0 2.7 .0 .0 .0 2.76
.07 Chris Bosh Mia 36 .607 19.6 2.4 1.2 .0 1.0 2.0 1.06
.07 George Hill Ind 45 .263 2.4 3.8 7.3 4.0 2.4 .0 .78
.06 Roy Hibbert Ind 41 .500 16.2 9.6 1.1 .0 1.8 1.8 .83
.06 Lance Stephenson Ind 43 .292 3.8 12.1 3.3 2.5 3.4 .0 .71
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e530
.06 Mario Chalmers Mia 21 .714 24.9 2.1 4.2 1.8 3.6 .0 1.40
.05 Tyler Hansbrough Ind 12 .625 34.2 20.4 .0 2.8 2.8 .0 2.14
.03 Udonis Haslem Mia 21 .167 1.5 15.0 4.5 3.6 3.6 .0 .85
.00 Ian Mahinmi Ind 11 .000 .0 11.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .01
-.02 Norris Cole Mia 28 .250 1.5 6.0 6.1 1.2 6.2 .0 -.30
-.02 Sam Young Ind 10 .000 .0 .0 .0 3.4 .0 .0 -.88
-.04 Ray Allen Mia 22 .222 3.0 3.8 .0 .0 1.6 .0 -.85
-.06 Shane Battier Mia 31 .250 1.7 1.4 .0 1.1 1.1 .0 -1.00
Shooting: Mia .523 - .515 Ind
Rebounds (per48): Ind 38.9 - 34.4 Mia
Turnovers: 20-20
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Sat May 25, 2013 10:34 am
by Mike G
Pacers 1, Heat 1
Avg score: Ind 99.5 - 98.0 Mia
Pyth Wins: 1.10 - .90 , eWins 1.05 - .95
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.49 Lebron James Mia 46 .647 32.8 8.5 5.4 1.2 3.5 1.6 2.69
.28 Roy Hibbert Ind 40 .615 26.1 10.7 1.1 .0 2.7 .9 1.75
.24 Paul George Ind 43 .628 25.6 3.1 5.5 .0 3.4 .0 1.42
.24 Chris Andersen Mia 17 1.00 40.3 10.0 .0 1.0 1.0 4.2 3.69
.19 Dwyane Wade Mia 41 .508 15.1 6.4 5.0 1.3 2.2 .9 1.17
.17 David West Ind 41 .557 19.3 6.6 2.1 .4 2.7 .4 1.05
.17 George Hill Ind 43 .548 10.6 4.7 5.2 3.4 2.1 .0 .98
.13 Lance Stephenson Ind 41 .354 5.9 11.1 4.7 2.2 2.2 .0 .83
.12 Chris Bosh Mia 37 .557 18.0 4.2 1.1 .5 1.5 1.0 .83
.07 Tyler Hansbrough Ind 10 .625 19.7 17.0 .0 1.7 1.7 .0 1.83
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e505
.05 Mario Chalmers Mia 25 .571 13.5 1.8 5.7 .7 2.9 .0 .51
.02 D.J. Augustin Ind 15 .625 13.2 2.9 1.4 .0 .0 .0 .43
.01 Udonis Haslem Mia 17 .188 1.5 13.0 2.5 2.2 3.3 .0 .19
-.00 Ian Mahinmi Ind 10 .333 2.3 8.5 .0 .0 1.7 3.4 -.01
-.03 Sam Young Ind 10 .125 .5 4.2 .0 1.7 1.7 .0 -.87
-.04 Ray Allen Mia 22 .313 5.1 4.7 .0 .0 1.6 .0 -.51
-.06 Shane Battier Mia 23 .167 .9 3.7 .0 .8 .8 .8 -.70
-.07 Norris Cole Mia 24 .250 2.2 3.6 3.4 .7 4.5 .0 -.79
Shooting: Ind .550 - .531 Mia
Rebounds: Ind 39.0 - 33.3 Mia
Turnovers: Ind 16.5 - 17.0 Mia
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Mon May 27, 2013 10:28 am
by Mike G
Heat 2, Pacers 1
Avg score: Mia 103.3 - 98.3 Ind
Pyth wins: 1.98 - 1.02 , eWins: 1.74 - 1.26
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates Tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e497
.64 Lebron James Mia 44 .620 28.5 7.0 5.5 .8 2.4 1.1 2.37
.44 Roy Hibbert Ind 39 .581 23.0 13.1 1.8 .0 2.5 1.2 1.88
.40 Chris Andersen Mia 18 .970 37.0 12.9 .0 .6 .6 3.9 3.64
.36 Dwyane Wade Mia 39 .531 16.3 5.8 7.5 1.2 2.2 1.2 1.53
.23 David West Ind 39 .545 18.8 7.9 1.9 .3 2.5 .3 .98
.22 Paul George Ind 42 .585 19.4 2.7 6.5 .0 3.7 .0 .86
.20 Chris Bosh Mia 32 .598 20.6 4.4 1.0 .8 1.1 .8 1.05
.19 George Hill Ind 41 .609 14.0 3.4 4.2 2.3 1.8 .0 .77
.15 Mario Chalmers Mia 26 .638 17.6 1.7 6.7 .9 1.9 .0 .97
.13 Udonis Haslem Mia 19 .571 14.5 13.1 2.6 1.3 2.6 .0 1.09
.07 Tyler Hansbrough Ind 10 .438 12.8 17.7 .0 1.2 1.2 .0 1.16
.07 Lance Stephenson Ind 39 .343 4.7 7.7 4.2 1.9 1.6 .0 .29
.04 Ian Mahinmi Ind 9 .600 8.2 12.1 .0 .0 1.3 2.6 .63
.02 D.J. Augustin Ind 14 .722 13.4 2.0 1.0 .0 .0 .0 .19
-.03 Sam Young Ind 9 .300 2.2 7.8 .0 1.3 1.3 .0 -.61
-.04 Ray Allen Mia 21 .364 6.3 4.0 1.6 .6 1.7 .6 -.31
-.07 Shane Battier Mia 22 .333 3.2 3.8 .7 .5 .5 .5 -.54
-.07 Norris Cole Mia 21 .313 3.5 3.4 3.9 1.7 3.5 .0 -.58
Shooting: Mia .563 - .534 Ind
Rebounds: Ind 40.9 - 34.1 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 13.0 - 14.3 Ind
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 12:03 pm
by Mike G
Heat 2, Pacers 2
Avg Score: Mia 100.5 - 98.5 Ind
Pyth Wins: 2.27 - 1.73 , eWins: 2.13 - 1.87
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.78 Lebron James Mia 44 .609 26.7 6.7 5.1 .8 2.2 1.4 2.16
.60 Roy Hibbert Ind 39 .595 23.8 12.7 1.7 .2 2.3 .9 1.88
.42 Dwyane Wade Mia 39 .508 15.6 5.3 7.2 1.2 2.4 1.2 1.34
.36 Chris Andersen Mia 19 .970 26.7 10.5 .0 .5 .5 2.8 2.39
.34 George Hill Ind 41 .581 15.0 3.8 5.0 1.8 1.6 .2 1.04
.33 David West Ind 39 .536 17.5 9.0 2.0 .2 2.1 .5 1.05
.27 Paul George Ind 40 .565 18.2 4.1 6.2 .0 4.1 .5 .84
.27 Mario Chalmers Mia 27 .602 20.4 2.5 5.0 1.4 1.4 .0 1.25
.22 Chris Bosh Mia 32 .571 17.5 4.5 1.1 .6 .9 .9 .85
.18 Udonis Haslem Mia 19 .578 14.7 11.5 1.9 2.1 2.1 .0 1.17
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e493
.16 Lance Stephenson Ind 39 .431 8.3 6.9 3.8 1.4 1.4 .0 .50
.08 Tyler Hansbrough Ind 10 .472 12.6 12.5 1.1 .8 .8 .0 .96
.04 Ian Mahinmi Ind 9 .571 8.2 10.2 .0 .0 1.0 3.0 .61
.04 Sam Young Ind 11 .500 6.8 10.3 .0 2.5 .8 .0 .43
.00 Ray Allen Mia 24 .380 7.2 5.7 1.4 .7 1.5 .4 .00
-.01 D.J. Augustin Ind 15 .722 9.9 1.3 2.8 .0 1.1 .0 -.08
-.05 Norris Cole Mia 19 .368 4.6 3.8 3.5 1.4 2.8 .0 -.31
-.07 Shane Battier Mia 21 .368 3.9 3.9 .5 .4 .4 .4 -.43
Shooting: Mia .549 - .543 Ind
Rebounds: Ind 42.9 - 33.1 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 11.3 - 13.8 Ind
With almost identical shooting%, Miami with a 2.5 TO advantage, Indiana getting
10 more rebounds per game -- how can the Pacers not be winning this series?
Is Miami getting a lot more
team rebounds and/or fewer
team turnovers?
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 8:45 pm
by xkonk
Mike G wrote:
With almost identical shooting%, Miami with a 2.5 TO advantage, Indiana getting 10 more rebounds per game -- how can the Pacers not be winning this series?
Is Miami getting a lot more team rebounds and/or fewer team turnovers?
That's even leaving out the giant advantage Indiana has at the foul line - across four games, they have 24 more points on 35 more attempts.
I think the issue is in the aggregation. In game 1, Miami shot a little better and kept rebounds close, which made up for Indiana's free throw advantage (TO were tied). In game 2, Indiana won all four factors but none by a huge margin. In game 3, Miami was pounded on the boards and again lost the free throw battle but they shot much, much better than Indiana and turned the ball over far less. Last night the game 3 pattern held but Indiana won the eFG battle.
Overall, it seems obvious that Indiana will get to the line more and get more rebounds; Miami will probably turn the ball over less. Any given game will come down to if Miami shoots well enough (or Indiana poorly enough) to make up the difference. Twice they have and twice they haven't.
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Wed May 29, 2013 9:58 pm
by Mike G
Well, FT are a high % shot, and that is accounted for in the shooting% shown : Eff% = Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA). Rebounds-minus-turnovers (differential) should give a team an advantage in scoring attempts; whether from the foul line, the 3-pt line, or elsewhere.
Pts = attempts * Eff% * 2
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Fri May 31, 2013 4:19 am
by xkonk
Ah, I skimmed over and thought it was eFG, not Eff. Although since you mention it, that implies that the Heat are doing much better from the floor than Indiana is if they can offset 8 points a game from the line. I think when I looked at the first four games, Indiana's rebound advantage was around 4 offensive and 6 defensive per game. If Indiana is getting 4 more possessions/opportunities on the boards and Miami is getting 2.5 via turnovers, that isn't a huge difference overall.
In tonight's game, Miami again won the turnover battle and Indiana again won the free throw battle, but Miami kept the rebound battle pretty much even (in terms of raw numbers) and shot better. They got the win.
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Fri May 31, 2013 9:45 am
by Mike G
Heat 3, Pacers 2
Avg score 98.4 - 94.6
Pyth Wins: 3.14 - 1.86, eWins: 2.82 - 2.18
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
1.07 Lebron James Mia 44 .592 27.5 6.9 5.4 1.0 2.3 1.3 2.37
.78 Roy Hibbert Ind 39 .604 24.5 12.0 1.3 .2 2.4 1.1 1.93
.50 Paul George Ind 41 .598 20.9 5.8 5.8 .2 4.1 .4 1.20
.48 Chris Andersen Mia 18 .973 27.7 10.2 .0 .8 .4 3.0 2.57
.47 Dwyane Wade Mia 39 .500 14.2 5.5 6.7 1.1 2.4 1.1 1.18
.44 David West Ind 39 .523 16.8 9.4 1.6 .4 1.7 .6 1.10
.34 Mario Chalmers Mia 28 .579 19.0 2.2 5.9 1.3 1.3 .0 1.18
.32 Udonis Haslem Mia 20 .667 20.9 9.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 .4 1.55
.27 George Hill Ind 40 .544 11.9 3.3 4.9 2.0 1.8 .2 .65
.26 Chris Bosh Mia 32 .563 16.1 4.8 1.2 .7 .7 .7 .78
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e490
.12 Lance Stephenson Ind 37 .414 7.4 6.9 3.7 1.4 1.8 .2 .31
.10 Tyler Hansbrough Ind 10 .455 12.4 13.2 .9 .7 .7 .0 .98
.06 Ian Mahinmi Ind 9 .500 8.4 10.8 .0 .0 .8 3.2 .69
-.00 Sam Young Ind 12 .550 6.9 8.6 .0 1.8 1.8 .0 -.03
-.01 Ray Allen Mia 23 .400 8.0 6.1 1.2 .6 1.8 .3 -.04
-.03 Norris Cole Mia 18 .409 5.5 3.6 4.0 1.2 2.3 .4 -.15
-.09 D.J. Augustin Ind 16 .591 6.6 1.1 2.2 .0 1.3 .0 -.58
-.12 Shane Battier Mia 18 .333 3.3 3.6 .5 .4 .8 .8 -.61
Shooting: Mia .550 - .539 Ind
Rebounds: Ind 40.9 - 32.9 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 11.0 - 14.4 Ind
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:24 am
by Mike G
Heat 3, Pacers 3
Avg score: Mia 94.8 - 94.0 Ind
Pyth Wins: 3.18 - 2.82, eWins: 3.09 - 2.91
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e488
1.26 Lebron James Mia 44 .590 27.9 6.7 5.3 1.1 2.5 1.2 2.35
.92 Roy Hibbert Ind 40 .593 24.5 11.7 1.1 .2 2.3 1.1 1.87
.73 Paul George Ind 41 .611 23.0 6.1 5.7 .6 4.2 .3 1.44
.60 David West Ind 39 .500 16.0 10.3 2.2 .5 1.7 .8 1.25
.48 Dwyane Wade Mia 38 .481 13.6 4.9 5.6 1.3 2.4 1.1 1.03
.44 Chris Andersen Mia 15 .973 24.6 9.8 .0 .8 .4 3.0 2.33
.39 George Hill Ind 40 .557 13.0 3.0 5.2 1.7 1.8 .1 .78
.37 Mario Chalmers Mia 27 .576 19.1 2.3 4.9 1.4 1.6 .0 1.12
.26 Udonis Haslem Mia 20 .627 16.6 8.6 1.1 1.6 1.6 .3 1.09
.20 Chris Bosh Mia 32 .523 13.7 4.8 .9 .6 1.2 .8 .51
.18 Lance Stephenson Ind 38 .413 7.1 7.9 3.8 1.3 2.1 .2 .39
.11 Tyler Hansbrough Ind 10 .442 11.5 12.6 .7 .6 .6 .0 .91
.03 Ian Mahinmi Ind 8 .500 7.5 9.7 .0 .0 2.0 2.7 .33
.02 Sam Young Ind 11 .583 8.3 8.0 .0 1.6 1.6 .0 .17
.02 Ray Allen Mia 23 .388 8.2 5.5 1.3 1.0 1.5 .3 .07
.01 Norris Cole Mia 20 .466 7.6 3.3 3.6 .9 1.8 .3 .05
.01 Joel Anthony Mia 6 .167 .7 9.7 .0 .9 .0 2.8 .16
-.09 D.J. Augustin Ind 15 .625 7.1 .9 1.9 .0 1.2 .0 -.48
-.11 Shane Battier Mia 16 .333 3.4 3.6 .4 .4 .7 .7 -.55
Shooting: Ind .540 - .538 Mia
Rebounds: Ind 42.9 - 32.9 Mia
Turnovers: 11.3 Mia - 15.0 Ind
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 3:04 pm
by Guy
Miami with a 2.5 TO advantage, Indiana getting 10 more rebounds per game -- how can the Pacers not be winning this series?
Using rebound differential will exaggerate Indiana's advantage, I think. Each TO and each rebound is worth c. 1 point, but each rebound yields an increase of 2 in the rebound differential. So if I'm doing the math right, Miami's current TO advantage (3.7) is nearly as valuable as Ind's +10 on rebounds.
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:14 pm
by DSMok1
Also, expected points off live-ball turnovers is significantly greater than expected points off of defensive rebounds. See NBAWOWY (Prior events) or this post:
http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.p ... 368#p12368
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 8:27 pm
by colts18
I must have missed it but where did show the expected points off of an offensive rebound?
Re: 2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 9:05 pm
by Mike G
Additional points off turnovers should be contained in shooting%, and more directly, in points scored.
I'm already counting the event twice, in a sense.
Already figured a 2-rebound advantage is = 1 rebound this way rather than that way. But the ratio was 4:1 (now not quite 3:1)
If Miami hits the first of 2 FT and misses the 2nd, the Pacers get a rebound.
If Miami misses the first and hits the 2nd, there's no rebound. But each sequence has the same value for both teams.
Is Miami tending to miss their 2nd FT? While Indiana's misses have mostly been the 1st one?