Team Context In Player Evaluation
Posted: Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:26 am
This is using statistics from the Hawks-Pacers series. Let's assume the offense Paul George is involved in is league average (around 1.07 PPP via nbawowy). He has a usage of 23 and a PPP of 1.06. It seems that with these numbers he's hurting the offense and is overall an inefficient offensive player (not including assists of course. and his usage of 23 will boost other's efficiency, but that's not the point of this exercise).
But George wasn't involved in a league average offense. In this series the Pacers scored only 1.039 PPP. When we use that instead of 1.07 PPP, George's marginal value of using a possession is actually a positive, and he uses a fair amount of possessions.
So, George was an inefficient player, but helped his team win. Put him on the Spurs though, and he would be a clear negative. This kind of gets into the whole predicting vs. explaining thing, as using league average is probably better predictively, team context better at explaining. While a player like George may not have helped a league average team on offense in this situation, he helped his team, and it feels weird to not consider that. I probably lean towards using league average, because it puts players on an even field and is better predictively, but would be interested in hearing other opinions on this topic.
But George wasn't involved in a league average offense. In this series the Pacers scored only 1.039 PPP. When we use that instead of 1.07 PPP, George's marginal value of using a possession is actually a positive, and he uses a fair amount of possessions.
So, George was an inefficient player, but helped his team win. Put him on the Spurs though, and he would be a clear negative. This kind of gets into the whole predicting vs. explaining thing, as using league average is probably better predictively, team context better at explaining. While a player like George may not have helped a league average team on offense in this situation, he helped his team, and it feels weird to not consider that. I probably lean towards using league average, because it puts players on an even field and is better predictively, but would be interested in hearing other opinions on this topic.