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Are the Heat Intentionally Leaving Danny Green Open? An article utilizing some SportVU observations on the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business and Research Group blog. I'm Nik btw, and I'd love to hear what everyone thinks of the concept behind the article. Thanks.

http://georgetownsportsanalysis.wordpre ... reen-open/

That's interesting analysis. It doesn't really suppose the Heat are daring Green to shoot, but that they're still willing to gamble that he'll cool off at least a bit. And that would justify their willingness to leave him when someone is driving to the basket.

Now that they've abandoned Chris Anderson, it's just Bosh and smaller guys protecting the rim.

Danny Green is 6-6 and goes up very high to shoot, even from 30'. The only way to stop him when he's this hot is to assign a good defender to just stick to him; and then, as the article implies, the Spurs get to go 4-on-4, which definitely favors them.

However, I haven't seen any sign the Heat are actually leaving him intentionally. He's had 2 guys lunging at him and still shoots and makes it. The times he's been truly 'open' are the anomalies, IMO.

Thanks for the feedback. Yea, especially towards the end of Game 5 when the Heat were going over the pick beyond the three point line, I doubt they were intentionally leaving him open. My point was more to provide some ideas on how to utilize SportVU observations with the goal being limiting the opposing team's offensive efficiency, even if that means letting one player go off. It's a similar idea to when some coaches used to think they could let MJ go off as long as the rest of the Bulls were limited.

Wrong question to address. It's not whether they're guarding him or not (they are guarding him, a good number of his makes have been contested 3s) but it's whether they're even allowing the shot in the first place. In the 2 Miami wins Green has 10 total 3PA; in the 3 Spurs wins, he has 28 3PA. His efficiency has been ridiculous, but it's the frequency that's more important

It's not whether they're guarding him or not (they are guarding him, a good number of his makes have been contested 3s) but it's whether they're even allowing the shot in the first place.

I don't see how those are different questions, or situations.
He doesn't shoot when he's totally guarded. He shoots when he has an opening; sometimes just a sliver of an opening.

Has he been making shots off the dribble? I'm thinking it's mostly catch and shoot.
His 3-pointers in the Finals have been 92% assisted.
In 3 wins, he's 17-28 from the arc and 4-11 inside it; these are 86% assisted.
In 2 losses, he's 8-10 from the arc and 1-4 inside; 79% assisted.

The difference is a rather pedestrian 9-18 (.500) in wins.

Well, Danny Green is pretty high up on the all-time three-point percentage rankings, so (hopefully) Miami knew he was a good shooter. Daring him to shoot would be plain stupid.

Miami's known for over-aggressive traps and pressure on the strong side of the court, and have a tendency to give up easy corner three's or other weak-side shots. A team that can move the ball well can exploit this. Green's also been making crazy shots, ones you can't defend against.

Also, the Heat have been using Mike Miller, who's been on the bench much of the season and has been making defensive lapses by the bucket-full.

So the answer to this was... yes. Because they were scared of Tim Duncan.

v-zero wrote:So the answer to this was... yes. Because they were scared of Tim Duncan.

Seems crazy - allowing a great team's most productive and efficient three point specialist get great looks at three point range just to stop others that probably would prove to be much less efficient.