APBRmetrics

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 10:02 am**

I decided to compare LeBron's post-season peak (24-28) to everyone else's peak.

http://bkref.com/tiny/60eXd

I want to see how this trend unfolds in future seasons, but he has a pretty sizable lead.

Edit:

Mike G, this edit is to save time. ;]

Edit:

Come on DSMok stop now, that argument is easily addressed.

LeBron 21-23 .177 WS/48

Jordan 21-23 .177 WS/48. Look at that before you criticize please, it looks bad to just try to disregard the #1 guy ever, LeBron.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:03 pm**

... he has a pretty sizable lead.

Presume you mean in Win Shares.
I can dig that age 24 to 28 will be when most players peak. Often enough, though, it's earlier or later; the greatest players tend to be the exceptions

With playoffs, there's also opportunity to consider. LeBron's 24-28 coincides pretty well with him being on his best teams. Garnett got to Boston at age 31. Olajuwon averaged 5 playoff games in the 24-28 interval, doing all his best work before and after.

Here are 6 contenders from the 1980-onward link provided in the OP. Paring their playoffs down to postseasons with at least 2 Win Shares, and ranked by their WS

Code: Select all

Bird    Age    WS        Jordan   Age    WS        Duncan   Age    WS
1984    27    4.72        1998    34    4.81        2003    26    5.93
1986    29    4.22        1991    27    4.78        1999    22    3.71
1987    30    3.21        1996    32    4.67        2005    28    3.46
1981    24    3.09        1993    29    4.40        2007    30    3.28
1985    28    2.63        1992    28    4.14        2006    29    2.59
1988    31    2.40        1989    25    4.04        2013    36    2.47
                          1990    26    3.99                
Magic   Age    WS         1997    33    3.94       LeBron   Age    WS
1988    28    3.98        1988    24    2.08        2012    27    5.82
1987    27    3.68                                  2013    28    5.20
1984    24    3.45        Shaq    Age    WS         2009    24    4.82
1991    31    3.31        2000    27    4.67        2011    26    3.80
1986    26    3.01        2004    31    3.86        2007    22    3.72
1985    25    3.01        2002    29    3.82        2010    25    2.32
1980    20    2.78        2001    28    3.66        2008    23    2.15
1982    22    2.70        1995    22    3.02                
1989    29    2.16        2003    30    2.41                
1983    23    2.09        1998    25    2.09

Note that 5 of LeBron's 6 biggest postseasons fall in the 5 years when he was 24 to 28. Same for Magic, even if you don't count years after age 28.
The others seem to be skewed toward their later years. It's of course possible that LeBron's best years are ahead of him. But he has a lot of mileage on him already.
Minutes (regular season) by age 28:

Code: Select all

LeBron  30,374
Magic   23,531
Shaq    23,072
Jordan  22,775
Duncan  22,456
Bird    18,288

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:13 pm**

Here's the comparison I would use (since that table was cherry-picking LeBron's best years):

http://bkref.com/tiny/FUy1F

That is cumulative WS/48 for players with over 100 playoff games played.

1. Jordan

2. LeBron

3. Magic
4. Dirk
5. Jerry West

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:37 pm**

DSMok1 wrote:Here's the comparison I would use (since that table was cherry-picking LeBron's best years):

Nope, read my edited post now. Your argument is ridiculous.

I also cherry picked Jordan's best seasons.

http://bkref.com/tiny/FUy1F

That is cumulative WS/48 for players with over 100 playoff games played.

1. Jordan

2. LeBron

3. Magic
4. Dirk
5. Jerry West

I don't think so. DSMok, did you really think I had not heard of that argument before? I planned for this.

Your epistemology is missing something, think more carefully why LeBron has a lower WS/48.

~

http://bkref.com/tiny/tLYzs

Divide LeBron's career into two parts, the 21-23 part and the 24-28 part.

LeBron is at 7.6 WS and .177 WS/48 from 21-23.
Jordan is at 1.6 WS and .177 WS/48 from 21-23.

~

So you penalize LeBron for going further in the playoffs at a younger age, but at the same .177 level. Once you sort through that noise you'll see your argument is not complete.

LeBron has the WS volume to back up his .270 24-28 rating. LeBron has a 3 WS lead on Jordan his lead will probably only grow in the future. I feel you're being quite disrespectful to the best playoff performer ever.

Losing in the first round of the playoffs is not more honorable.

1. LeBron

2. Jordan.

Over a huge sample size again. I will not let that go, your error is egregious.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:44 pm**

Kobe is another with a crater in his playoff career during ages 24 to 28. He missed the playoffs once, was out in the first round twice, and did not top .145 in WS/48.

One could search for best 5-year intervals, but what does that indicate? -- usually, that a given player was with a good team.
One could look for top 5 postseasons, but then again you're cherry-picking an arbitrary number.

Having said all that, LeBron is still well ahead of the pack in total playoff Win Shares by age 28:

Code: Select all

.WS       Player              WS       Player
29.5    LeBron James         14.2    Dirk Nowitzki
24.9    Magic Johnson*       13.7    Larry Bird*
20.6    Michael Jordan*      13.4    George Mikan*
19.7    Tim Duncan           12.6    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*
17.8    Shaquille O'Neal     12.3    Jerry West*
15.5    Bill Russell*        12.1    Wilt Chamberlain*
15.3    Walt Frazier*        12.0    Isiah Thomas*
14.6    Kobe Bryant          11.9    Scottie Pippen*
14.4    Horace Grant         11.5    Kevin McHale*
14.3    James Worthy*        11.0    Tayshaun Prince

He's already 7th in career Win Shares. One more year like this one, and he'd pass Shaq, Wilt, Magic, and possibly Duncan. Kareem is next, and Jordan is a mere 10.3 WS away.
24 players have gotten that many playoff WS after age 28. Kareem got double that.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:46 pm**

Note that 5 of LeBron's 6 biggest postseasons fall in the 5 years when he was 24 to 28. Same for Magic, even if you don't count years after age 28.
The others seem to be skewed toward their later years. It's of course possible that LeBron's best years are ahead of him. But he has a lot of mileage on him already.
Minutes (regular season) by age 28:
Code: Select all
LeBron  30,374
Magic   23,531
Shaq    23,072
Jordan  22,775
Duncan  22,456
Bird    18,288

LeBron's best regular season was in season #10. LeBron didn't go to college he has different standards than other players.

Mike G wrote:Kobe is another with a crater in his playoff career during ages 24 to 28. He missed the playoffs once, was out in the first round twice, and did not top .145 in WS/48.

One could search for best 5-year intervals, but what does that indicate? -- usually, that a given player was with a good team.
One could look for top 5 postseasons, but then again you're cherry-picking an arbitrary number.

Having said all that, LeBron is still well ahead of the pack in total playoff Win Shares by age 28:
Code: Select all
.WS       Player              WS       Player
29.5    LeBron James         14.2    Dirk Nowitzki
24.9    Magic Johnson*       13.7    Larry Bird*
20.6    Michael Jordan*      13.4    George Mikan*
19.7    Tim Duncan           12.6    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar*
17.8    Shaquille O'Neal     12.3    Jerry West*
15.5    Bill Russell*        12.1    Wilt Chamberlain*
15.3    Walt Frazier*        12.0    Isiah Thomas*
14.6    Kobe Bryant          11.9    Scottie Pippen*
14.4    Horace Grant         11.5    Kevin McHale*
14.3    James Worthy*        11.0    Tayshaun Prince
He's already 7th in career Win Shares. One more year like this one, and he'd pass Shaq, Wilt, Magic, and Duncan. Kareem is next, and Jordan is a mere 10.3 WS away.

I agree with you.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:03 pm**

That's a good point about LeBron being penalized for being in the league at a younger age and playing on poor playoff teams at that age.

Here's a revised listing (I still think it's far better to use WS/48 than total WS):

http://bkref.com/tiny/VsDn2

That's WS/48 for prime years, age 23-33.

1.LeBron
2.Jordan (basically tied)

3. Wilt
4. Magic
5. Jerry West

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:48 pm**

...it looks bad to just try to disregard the #1 guy ever, LeBron.
Last edited by huevonkiller on Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:54 am, edited 7 times in total.

What looks bad is editing your original post and pretending that's what people have responded to.

I feel you're being quite disrespectful to the best playoff performer ever.

A couple years ago, I mentioned that if LeBron wins a ring, he'll have the same number as Jordan had at age 27.
And at age 28, they both have 2.
LeBron got into the playoffs in his 3rd season, age 21. Same age as Jordan, but with a lot more "volume". LeBron's gone at least 11 games every year since. Jordan went at least 10 postseason games after his 4th year.

Code: Select all

Season      Jordan      LeBron
Age  yr    G   WS/48   WS/48   G   yr
21   85    4   .198    .135   13   06   
22   86    3   .161    .200   20   07
23   87    3   .165    .187   13   08
24   88   10   .234    .399   14   09
25   89   17   .270    .242   11   10
26   90   16   .284    .198   21   11
27   91   17   .333    .284   23   12
28   92   22   .216    .260   23   13
29   93   19   .270
30
31   95   10   .150
32   96   18   .306
33   97   19   .235
34   98   21   .265

LeBron had better WS/48 than Jordan in 3 of their first 4 playoffs; and over a lot more games.
After age 24, it's back and forth. Jordan played fewer games, not because the Bulls ('91-93) were losing, but because they were NOT losing very often.

Can LeBron win 4 more rings? In the next 6 years? Seems like a long shot. He got good help this year, and at critical moments. But most of his current squad seems to be disintegrating, physically.

Jordan had almost superhuman concentration, seen above as incredible consistency; and LeBron has almost superhuman physicality. I wonder what is his weakest point -- his Achilles heel -- that will give out first.

Consistency is vital in playoffs. Did Jordan ever have a bad (or mediocre) playoff series? For both these guys, one bad series and you're out. The Bulls with Jordan lost one playoff series in 7 postseasons, while winning 25.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:03 pm**

Mike G wrote:What looks bad is editing your original post and pretending that's what people have responded to.

Huh? No one is pretending, that's pretty silly.

I'm sorry I have no idea what you're talking about. I clearly typed "Edit:", and then the edited part was pasted.

No one is going to think I'm secretly editing anything, I'm explicitly admitting it before-hand. ;]

I don't want to waste time that's why I edit stuff.

A couple years ago, I mentioned that if LeBron wins a ring, he'll have the same number as Jordan had at age 27.
And at age 28, they both have 2.
LeBron got into the playoffs in his 3rd season, age 21. Same age as Jordan, but with a lot more "volume". LeBron's gone at least 11 games every year since. Jordan went at least 10 postseason games after his 4th year.
Code: Select all
Season      Jordan      LeBron
Age  yr    G   WS/48   WS/48   G   yr
21   85    4   .198    .135   13   06   
22   86    3   .161    .200   20   07
23   87    3   .165    .187   13   08
24   88   10   .234    .399   14   09
25   89   17   .270    .242   11   10
26   90   16   .284    .198   21   11
27   91   17   .333    .284   23   12
28   92   22   .216    .260   23   13
29   93   19   .270
30
31   95   10   .150
32   96   18   .306
33   97   19   .235
34   98   21   .265
LeBron had better WS/48 than Jordan in 3 of their first 4 playoffs; and over a lot more games.
After age 24, it's back and forth. Jordan played fewer games, not because the Bulls ('91-93) were losing, but because they were NOT losing very often.

Can LeBron win 4 more rings? In the next 6 years? Seems like a long shot. He got good help this year, and at critical moments. But most of his current squad seems to be disintegrating, physically.

Jordan had almost superhuman concentration, seen above as incredible consistency; and LeBron has almost superhuman physicality. I wonder what is his weakest point -- his Achilles heel -- that will give out first.

Consistency is vital in playoffs. Did Jordan ever have a bad (or mediocre) playoff series? For both these guys, one bad series and you're out. The Bulls with Jordan lost one playoff series in 7 postseasons, while winning 25.

What the Heat went through this year was insane, I don't think there was a harder title run in recent memory. There's no need to question the intangibles anymore.

Since you asked, Jordan played poorly against the 88 Pistons, 89 Pistons, 92 Knicks, etc. He had other solid series, but I wanted to focus on the aggregate.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:14 pm**

huevonkiller wrote:What the Heat went through this year was insane, I don't think there was a harder title run in recent memory. There's no need to question the intangibles anymore.

Judging by this: https://twitter.com/Neil_Paine/status/3 ... 62/photo/1 it appears that the Heat SoS in the playoffs was not unusually high. +1.58 opponent average SRS.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:17 pm**

DSMok1 wrote:
huevonkiller wrote:What the Heat went through this year was insane, I don't think there was a harder title run in recent memory. There's no need to question the intangibles anymore.
Judging by this: https://twitter.com/Neil_Paine/status/3 ... 62/photo/1 it appears that the Heat SoS in the playoffs was not unusually high. +1.58 opponent average SRS.

Down 5 points in game 6 with 28 seconds left, teams were 122-0 in those situations.

That is crazy. Neil probably thought the Heat would have 0 titles by now. Almost true btw, game 6 in Boston last year was scary.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:30 pm**

I have no idea what insanity the Heat went through this year.

Jordan played poorly against the 88 Pistons, 89 Pistons, 92 Knicks, etc.

In 1989 vs the Pistons, Jordan averaged 30 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.5 ast, and 2 steals. He shot .561 (TS%) while the rest of the Bulls shot .512. Pippen and Grant both averaged under 10.
With backcourt mates Hodges and Paxson, he held Isiah, Dumars, and Vinnie to .463 TS%.

The previous year, Jordan averaged 27.4, 8.8, 4.6, and 2 steals. He shot 55% while the rest of the Bulls shot 46%. Pistons backcourt (and team) shot < 50%.

These Pistons teams were both NBA Finalists, and Jordan made them look like chumps.
Bulls' #2 scorers were Sam Vincent and Craig Hodges in these series (both under 13 ppg).

In 1992 against the Knicks, Jordan averaged 31.3 - 5.7 - 4.3 - 1.4 Stl - 1.1 Blk. He shot .539 against a Knicks backcourt (Starks, Jackson, Anthony, GWilkins) that shot .500.
By this time he had a teammate (Pippen) who could score half as much as he (16 ppg), at just .493 TS.

The '88 Pistons and the '92 Knicks had the best D-Rtg in the East.
The '89 Pistons were 2nd to the Cavs, whom the Bulls beat in round 1.

I remember these series very well. Where did you get the idea that Jordan played poorly?

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:32 pm**

In two title years, the Heat have survived three 7-game series. That's one more than the Bulls had in 6 title years.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:37 pm**

Mike G wrote:I have no idea what insanity the Heat went through this year.

Did you watch the fourth quarter of game six? Or the last two minutes of game 7 when it was anyone's title?

In 1989 vs the Pistons, Jordan averaged 30 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.5 ast, and 2 steals. He shot .561 (TS%) while the rest of the Bulls shot .512. Pippen and Grant both averaged under 10.
With backcourt mates Hodges and Paxson, he held Isiah, Dumars, and Vinnie to .463 TS%.

The average offensive rating in 1989 was 110, Jordan was at 112. So in other words he played like a crappy Dwyane Wade.

The previous year, Jordan averaged 27.4, 8.8, 4.6, and 2 steals. He shot 55% while the rest of the Bulls shot 46%. Pistons backcourt (and team) shot < 50%.

He was horrible, the average offensive rating was 110 in 1988. So Jordan was 4 points below that. It was not himself really.

These Pistons teams were both NBA Finalists, and Jordan made them look like chumps.
Bulls' #2 scorers were Sam Vincent and Craig Hodges in these series (both under 13 ppg).

I remember these series very well. Where did you get the idea that Jordan didn't play well?

No he didn't, he looked very average, if that. Per game numbers don't mean anything.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2013 2:39 pm**

Mike G wrote:In two title years, the Heat have survived three 7-game series. That's one more than the Bulls had in 6 title years.

http://bkref.com/tiny/fLPZN
http://bkref.com/tiny/ZTKEY

Wade is old, Bosh is always injured. That's pretty much why. If I were running the Heat I'd play Wade half the season.

APBRmetrics

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