APBRmetrics

Topics for comments, if interested:

1. Projected vs recommended starting lineup
2. Will they retain and build around Aldridge after his current contract and should they?
3. Projected wins for next season
4. Biggest need

I like what they've done. Their starting 5 was solid, with Hickson being the weak link. ROLO in, Hickson out, shores up interior defense and positions LMA at the 4. Wes is still young ish, Batum is locked up (overpaid but still positive), and Lillard building on his ROY campaign. (Although old as a rookie, obviously still has potential)

The bench was all-time bad. Not sure if McCollum will be a panacea but he should provide more than what they got out of guys who shouldn't be on an NBA roster as a backup G. (Nolan Smith, Ronnie Price) Their best wing was arguably Sasha Pavlovic... That's sad. Dorrell Wright is an above average backup... I also like the low-cost/low-risk addition of TRob.

Meyers Leonard was the only bench player who wasn't completely terrible and another year of age should help. They possibly aren't done with their roster, but their ~8 man rotation is in focus.

Thanks for the comments. Projected wins for next season Rob? I don't immediately have a guess.

Problems? Lots: 20th in 3pt FG%, 24th in FTA (22nd in FT/FGA). 23rd in Off Reb%. 26th in eFG% allowed, 27th in opponent TO%, 20th in def reb%, 25th in FT/FGA allowed. How long do they wait for improvement and how much do they need to see soon to stay the course on coaches, players and the rest of the team & approach? I dunno, but they appear to have much work still to do.

Portland's my team, so this is from the perspective of a fan....

I really like the core of the Blazers, but there was two glaring problems -- Hickson at center and the bench. Hickson playing center on defense is like Tony Allen running the point. The bench was horrific, and it led to Lillard playing huge minutes for a rookie and jacking up tough shots. I wouldn't be surprised if his shooting efficiency skyrocketed this season. For RAPM fans, Hickson has one of the largest disparities between his PER/Win Share numbers and his RAPM. He can put up nice stats, but it's pretty empty: the Blazers shopped him around for a while and got nothing.

I'm excited for Robin Lopez as much as anything. He's a real center, and he's not constantly injured.

They should grab a few more wins on the basis of the bench and center upgrade. I have an idea for projecting wins I want to accomplish this summer, so I'll probably plug in their numbers first. With Utah tanking and the Mavs in disarray, they should fight for a playoff spot.

Here's another random point: Batum's defense. With his height, length, and athleticism, he seems like a good defender, but he's mostly been a negative. I'm not sure how good he can become. Does he just not have the awareness for it?

Crow wrote:Thanks for the comments. Projected wins for next season Rob? I don't immediately have a guess.

Problems? Lots: 20th in 3pt FG%, 24th in FTA (22nd in FT/FGA). 23rd in Off Reb%. 26th in eFG% allowed, 27th in opponent TO%, 20th in def reb%, 25th in FT/FGA allowed. How long do they wait for improvement and how much do they need to see soon to stay the course on coaches, players and the rest of the team & approach? I dunno, but they appear to have much work still to do.

Haven't done any win projections, will wait for FA to settle down.