APBRmetrics

ESPN is reporting that Rudy Gay has been traded to Sacramento.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10105 ... -gay-trade

Gay has been incredibly inefficient this season. I discuss this a bit more at

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/ ... the-plomp/

Could we possibly see something along the lines of what happened when Monta Ellis moved to Dallas, ie that playing on a better team will allow Gay to get better shots? In Toronto, Gay's best teammate based on PER was DeMar DeRozan.... at a less than stellar 99th. In Sacramento, he is now teammates with two much better players in Cousins and Thomas, both top 10 in PER.
I think playing with these players will allow Sacramento to give him the ball less and use him in more designed scenarios rather than having him try to create his own shot. As of right now, Gay has shot 6.8 pull up shots a game, a shot associated with creating one's own offense. Of the other top 25 scorers in the league, the only ones who have shot more pull up shots than him are Wall, Irving, Lilliard, Westbrook, Paul George and Durant, all of whom are either point guards or a top five player in the league. Gay hasn't been bad on pull ups, hitting over 40% of them, better than all the aforementioned players but Durant. The reason the only players are perhaps viewed as more efficient is because most players don't play on a team as offensively challenged as Toronto, and therefore get more catch and shoot shots (usually converted at a much higher percentage) or close shots (also converted at a much higher percentage).
In conclusion, I think Rudy Gay will surprise people in Sacramento, as playing with Thomas and Cousins will mean he will have to create less, and will be able to get more catch and shoot shots and maybe more shots down in the post, where he isn't bad.

I have to admit that I grew up in Connecticut and a big fan of UCONN basketball. I remember watching Gay in college and thinking he could be a superstar. Part of me still roots for him to succeed.

I think a change of scenery could help Gay. I have my doubts that he'll ever be the #1 offensive option on a championship contender (and I don't think he is worth the 20 million or so he'll earn next season). Still, he has talent. In the right role and in the right system, I do believe he can have value. I'm not sure Sacramento has that system. It will be interesting to see if Sacramento plays Gay and D. Williams together at forward, and if that is successful.

italia13calcio wrote:...Gay hasn't been bad on pull ups, hitting over 40% of them, better than all the aforementioned players but Durant. The reason the only players are perhaps viewed as more efficient is because most players don't play on a team as offensively challenged as Toronto, and therefore get more catch and shoot shots (usually converted at a much higher percentage) or close shots (also converted at a much higher percentage).
In conclusion, I think Rudy Gay will surprise people in Sacramento, as playing with Thomas and Cousins will mean he will have to create less, and will be able to get more catch and shoot shots and maybe more shots down in the post, where he isn't bad.

Gay has shot a solid percentage on pull ups. Unfortunately he's shooting 34.5% on catch and shoots and 32.9% on drives (according to nba.com player tracking). It would be interesting to see these splits for past seasons.

steveshea wrote:Gay has shot a solid percentage on pull ups. Unfortunately he's shooting 34.5% on catch and shoots and 32.9% on drives (according to nba.com player tracking). It would be interesting to see these splits for past seasons.

Agreed. Maybe the low catch and shoot numbers could be a product of just not getting good looks? Otherwise, it would seem fairly counterintuitive that his catch and shoot shooting percentage would be lower than his pull up. Hopefully in a new offense with (slightly) better players he may get more open looks.

From SAC's perspective, this trade turns them into a basketball team instead of a bunch of basketball players. They can start Isaiah now, move Williams to PF, get Cousins usage under 90%, start to build some reasonable rotations, etc. And that bad year on Gay's contract next year (which I guess may not even happen, though I assume it will) isn't 'that' bad for SAC specifically.