APBRmetrics

Hi everyone. I've been an avid follower of the baseball stats movement for years, but I'm just getting into basketball now. I'm looking for any advice on where to start. Are there any "must read" articles?
Specifically, I'm looking for anything predictive. Most of what I've seen out there for basketball is explanatory (attempting to value players). In baseball, a pitcher's past ERA is not the best estimate of future ERA because there is a lot of variance in some of the factors that go into a pitchers ERA. Is there any similar thinking for basketball? I imagine points off of offensive rebounds have different predictive value than points off of 3pointers. I'm also curious about player shot type tendency (and make percentage) and defensive shot types allowed (percentage made also), essentially trying to figure out how 2 teams may interact with each other.

Am I on the right track? Is there anything out there that could help me out?

I'm more than happy to "trade notes" if a basketball expert is interested in exploring baseball.

Thanks in advance,
Doug

Hi.

Read these introductions:

http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol3/iss3/1

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/advanced-stats-primer/


Look at the linkage thread at top of front page and visit some of those sites.


Browse the archives here.

For player predictions look at what Kevin Pelton has done with "Schoene" projections at ESPN (and Basketball Prospectus before that) or what Neil Paine did at basketball-reference blog or John Holinger did at ESPN and in his old season guides. Also search for 'aging curve" discussions here and look at this: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/pics/infl.png

For team (and in most cases player) projections, look at what people did in the predictions thread.

For value of plays look at the statistical plus-minus regression stuff. For consideration of prior actions on value of next plays look at http://www.amstat.org/Chapters/boston/n ... hirley.pdf and anything else using Markov chains. And maybe this viewtopic.php?f=2&t=296 And look at the prior action data available at nbawowy.com.


For trying to figure out how 2 teams may interact with each other, look at this and things associated with Bob Chaikin or xohoops viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8310&p=16510&hilit= ... kin#p16510
Or Dean Oliver's Roboscout http://82games.com/oliver.htm
And pages like this: http://www.82games.com/1314/1314OKC4.HTM

There is a lot scattered around. There are a lot of links to older stuff here http://www.countthebasket.com/