APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:57 pm**

Apologies if there was already a thread containing this. My memory is starting to slip.
Player-seasons of >40 games, mpg > 30, highest PER, WS, and WS/48 which were not named to all-star game. Since 1978.
2011-12 season is pro-rated to 82 games (for WS totals) as is this season (by factor 82/55)

Code: Select all

PER      Player        yr       WS/48    Player        yr        WS      Player         yr
25.7 DeMarcus Cousins 2014*     .238   John Stockton  1988      14.6   Dirk Nowitzki   2001
24.3   Manu Ginobili  2008      .232   Manu Ginobili  2008      14.1   John Stockton   1988
23.2   John Stockton  1988      .230   James Harden   2012      12.5   Reggie Miller   1991
23.1   Elton Brand    2007      .224   Dirk Nowitzki  2001      12.2   Larry Nance     1992
23.1   Dan Issel      1982      .219   Ryan Anderson  2012      12.2   Steve Francis   2001
22.8   Dirk Nowitzki  2001      .206   Clyde Drexler  1995      11.7   Clyde Drexler   1995
22.8   Al Jefferson   2012      .204   Larry Nance    1992      11.7   Stephon Marbury 2005
22.7   Al Jefferson   2008      .202   Reggie Miller  1991      11.6   James Harden    2012
22.6   Zach Randolph  2011      .201   Goran Dragic   2014*     11.5   Dan Issel       1980
22.4   Clyde Drexler  1995      .200   John Stockton  2002      11.5   Elton Brand     2007
22.4  Charles Barkley 1986      .190   Dan Issel      1981      11.2   Stephen Curry   2013
22.4   Elton Brand    2005      .190   Dan Issel      1982      11.1   Goran Dragic  * 2014
22.3   Sam Cassell    2003      .188   Dan Issel      1980      11.1   Manu Ginobili   2008
22.3   Paul Pierce    2001      .186   Dan Issel      1978      11.1   Dan Issel       1978
22.3   Goran Dragic   2014*     .185  Marques Johnson 1978      11.1   Karl Malone     2003
22.3   Andre Drummond 2014*     .185   Zach Randolph  2011      11.1 LaMarcus Aldridge 2011
22.2   Dan Issel      1980      .184   Steve Francis  2001      11.1   Ryan Anderson   2012
22.1  Cedric Ceballos 1996      .182   Karl Malone    2003      10.8   Charles Barkley 1986
22.1   Chris Paul     2006      .182   Andre Drummond 2014*     10.8   Michael Redd    2006
22.1   World B. Free  1979      .180   Elton Brand    2007      10.7   John Stockton   2002
22.0  Carmelo Anthony 2006      .180   Stephen Curry  2013      10.6   Marques Johnson 1978
22.0   Greg Monroe    2012      .180  Cedric Ceballos 1996      10.6   Elton Brand     2005
21.9   John Stockton  2002      .179   Mark Price     1990      10.5   Dan Issel       1981
21.9  Stephon Marbury 2005      .179   Paul Millsap   2012      10.5   Zach Randolph   2011
21.9   Al Jefferson   2014*     .178   Chris Paul     2006      10.5   Robert Parish   1989

http://bkref.com/tiny/KMD5z
Four from this year in the PER list.
I stripped out players with <71 games played and those from 1999 (no ASG)
While some players would make the WS list with <71 G -- Kareem in 1978 -- they weren't so much 'snubbed' as they were (likely) inactive until near mid-season.

Posted: **Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:19 pm**

I addressed this season's "snubs" here (at the bottom): http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=169

The highest ranked snubs by projected WAR (more comparable to WS) at All Star break:

10 Kyle Lowry 13.65
13 Gorin Dragic 13.41
17 Mike Conley 11.63
20 Tim Duncan 11.48
21 Al Jefferson 11.30
22 Andre Drummond 11.17

By HnR (which would be more comparable to PER, 100 NBA average):

10 Demarcus Cousins 134
11 Kyle Lowry 130
13 Gorin Dragic 129
15 Andre Drummond 127
17 Al Jefferson 127
19 Tim Duncan 126

I think we ALL can agree the selection of Joe Johnson was completely absurd: 103rd projected WAR (4.47), 154th WAR/48 (6.82, 8.2 league average), 152nd HnR (99). Why is he ALWAYS selected?

Posted: **Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:09 pm**

Joe Johnson wasn't maybe the worst all-star selection ever, but it's been a while.
Average PER is 15.0, and avg ws/48 is ~.100
So here's a list of all-stars, in reverse chronology, with PER < 14.5 AND WS/48 < .090 -- below-average players, according to both of these (unrelated) metrics.

Code: Select all

*all-stars*      yr  Age   tm    PER   ws/48
Joe Johnson  * 2014   32   Brk   14.2   .077 *
Joe Dumars     1995   31   Det   13.9   .032
Latrell Sprewell 95   24   GSW   14.1   .034
Kevin Duckworth  91   26   Por   12.7   .082
Kareem A-Jabbar  89   41   LAL   12.9   .082
Duckworth      1989   24   Por   13.9   .086
Pete Maravich  1979   31   NOJ   13.4   .004
John Havlicek  1978   37   Bos   14.3   .087
Don Buse       1977   26   Ind   14.1   .076
Norm Van Lier  1977   29   Chi   13.4   .085
Norm Van Lier  1976   28   Chi   13.0   .051
Scott Wedman   1976   23   KCK   13.9   .079
Darrall Imhoff 1967   28   LAL   13.6   .089
Willis Reed    1966   23   NYK   14.4   .069

Before this time, there were 2-4 players per year making the all-star team with below-avg stats. And every team was represented by at least one player.
Willis Reed was the only Knicks player in the 1966 ASG, though he was their #4 in both PER and WS, for a 30-50 team.

EDIT - List above requires >1000 minutes for the season. Thus no Kobe'14, Iverson'10, etc.

Posted: **Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:00 pm**

Most career (regular season) Win Shares by players never named to an all-star game

Code: Select all

105.4  Sam Perkins   1985-2001    75.3   Richard Jefferson  2002-
96.8   Andre Miller    2000-      75.2   Byron Scott       1984-97
94.1   Jason Terry     2000-      74.6   Don Nelson        1963-76
89.8   PJ Brown      1994-2008    74.4   Michael Cage     1985-2000
86.8   Derek Harper   1984-99     73.2   Mike Bibby       1999-2012
85.8  Rod Strickland 1989-2005    70.5   Brent Barry      1996-2009
81.6   Marcus Camby  1997-2013    70.5   Hot Rod Williams  1987-99
78.5   Cedric Maxwell 1978-88     70.0   Happy Hairston    1965-75
77.0   Lamar Odom     2000-13     69.5   Jerome Kersey    1985-2001
75.4   Shane Battier   2002-      66.3   Robert Horry     1993-2008

Joe Johnson's at 69.4

APBRmetrics

All star snubs

All star snubs

Re: All star snubs

Re: All star snubs

Re: All star snubs