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NBA rookie classes in their first 5 seasons.

Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:22 pm
by Mike G
A rather large project; to simplify, only player-seasons of 900+ minutes are included in the samples.
Each block of lines tracks a rookie class -- designated by the first year in the block.

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year     Age   Min/Tm   PER    WS/48   WS/Tm
2014    21.3     901    11.9    .054    1.02
                    
2013    21.9    1303    12.8    .066    1.79
2014    22.6    1816    14.7    .096    3.62
                    
2012    21.4    1295    13.7    .070    1.90
2013    22.5    1802    14.5    .087    3.25
2014    23.2    1861    15.4    .103    3.97
                    
2011    21.3    1108    13.8    .070    1.62
2012    22.7    1667    15.7    .103    3.57
2013    23.8    1858    15.6    .104    4.02
2014    24.4    1620    16.7    .112    3.77
 
year     Age   Min/Tm   PER    WS/48   WS/Tm
2010    21.3    1383    14.3    .078    2.24
2011    22.4    1764    14.6    .095    3.48
2012    23.3    1826    15.4    .104    3.97
2013    24.5    1863    15.6    .104    4.02
2014    25.5    1638    16.6    .120    4.10
                    
2009    21.3    1673    14.6    .088    3.06
2010    22.3    2063    15.1    .098    4.22
2011    23.1    2176    15.7    .107    4.85
2012    24.3    1777    17.2    .129    4.78
2013    25.1    1969    16.5    .121    4.97
 
year     Age   Min/Tm   PER    WS/48   WS/Tm
2008    22.0    1141    12.9    .065    1.55
2009    22.7    1689    14.1    .087    3.06
2010    23.9    1770    15.0    .096    3.56
2011    24.7    1777    15.5    .109    4.02
2012    25.7    1367    16.3    .127    3.61
                    
2007    22.1    1050    12.9    .065    1.43
2008    22.2    1177    15.2    .102    2.49
2009    23.5    1562    15.3    .107    3.49
2010    24.3    1316    15.1    .110    3.03
2011    25.1    1121    15.3    .103    2.41
 
year     Age   Min/Tm   PER    WS/48   WS/Tm
2006    21.9    1320    13.5    .076    2.10
2007    22.8    1838    14.3    .095    3.64
2008    23.5    2162    16.0    .115    5.19
2009    24.2    1752    16.7    .116    4.23
2010    24.9    1696    16.4    .114    4.04
                    
2005    21.2    1280    13.6    .084    2.25
2006    22.3    1935    14.0    .092    3.69
2007    23.3    2070    15.8    .114    4.93
2008    24.4    2036    15.9    .106    4.48
2009    25.3    1940    15.9    .116    4.67
    
year     Age   Min/Tm   PER    WS/48   WS/Tm
2004    21.4    1276    13.6    .069    1.83
2005    22.8    1722    15.1    .100    3.57
2006    23.8    2160    16.3    .118    5.30
2007    24.8    2350    15.4    .104    5.10
2008    25.9    2207    15.2    .099    4.57
                    
2003    21.8    1295    13.2    .070    1.88
2004    23.2    1604    14.8    .102    3.42
2005    24.3    1766    15.8    .115    4.22
2006    25.4    1471    14.6    .091    2.78
2007    26.2    1596    16.1    .117    3.91
                    
2002    21.7    1416    13.5    .081    2.39
2003    22.3    1897    14.4    .092    3.64
2004    23.4    1924    15.6    .109    4.37
2005    24.6    2162    15.5    .107    4.81
2006    25.2    2207    16.1    .114    5.23

year     Age   Min/Tm   PER    WS/48   WS/Tm
2001    21.8    1114    12.2    .053    1.23
2002    23.1    1402    13.8    .087    2.54
2003    24.1    1315    13.8    .084    2.30
2004    24.9    1619    14.9    .099    3.35
2005    26.3    1633    14.1    .080    2.71

2000    22.0    1259    14.8    .083    2.18
2001    22.8    1634    16.1    .103    3.52
2002    23.9    1847    16.1    .109    4.21
2003    24.8    1708    15.6    .105    3.75
2004    25.6    1621    16.9    .123    4.17
Minutes and Win Shares per team are scaled up to 82 games, for 2012 and 2014.
PER and WS/48 are likely overstated by the exclusion of little-used players. WS per team are probably not much affected.
The 2014 rookie crop is just about as weak as the 2001 bunch. The 2001 group got more minutes as rookies, and by year 4 (2004) they were average NBA players.

Re: NBA rookie classes in their first 5 seasons.

Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:24 am
by Mike G
Here are decade averages for rookies, 2nd-year players, etc. The definition of 'decade' shifts to keep rookie classes together.

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from    thru   yr    Age    Min/Tm    PER   WS/48   WS/Tm
1980    1989    1    22.4    1851    13.8    .076    2.95
1990    1999    1    22.3    1368    14.2    .073    2.08
2000    2009    1    21.7    1283    13.5    .075    1.99
2010    2014    1    21.5    1125    13.4    .069    1.62
                            
1981    1990    2    23.5    2269    14.8    .096    4.55
1991    2000    2    23.4    1783    14.9    .087    3.23
2001    2010    2    22.6    1697    14.7    .096    3.38
2011    2014    2    22.5    1626    14.8    .094    3.20
 
from    thru   yr    Age    Min/Tm    PER   WS/48   WS/Tm
1982    1991    3    24.4    2197    15.4    .104    4.78
1992    2001    3    24.4    1767    15.5    .103    3.78
2002    2011    3    23.6    1877    15.6    .109    4.25
2012    2014    3    23.4    1654    15.5    .103    3.57
                            
1983    1992    4    25.5    2068    16.0    .117    5.03
1993    2002    4    25.3    1785    15.6    .107    3.99
2003    2012    4    24.6    1763    15.6    .107    3.94
2013    2014    4    24.5    1642    16.1    .107    3.67

from    thru   yr    Age    Min/Tm    PER   WS/48   WS/Tm
1984    1993    5    26.4    2001    16.0    .114    4.77
1994    2003    5    26.2    1713    16.1    .114    4.06
2004    2013    5    25.5    1709    15.9    .111    3.96
2014    2014    5    25.5    1438    16.6    .120    3.60
The '90s are unusual in that rookie PER were pretty good, but ws/48 are not commensurate. There were expansion teams that gave 1st and 2nd year players lots of minutes but didn't improve much. The disparity is likely due to PER giving too much credit for productivity with a bad team, while WS gives too little.

Young players got a lot more minutes in the '80s. Relative to their age peers in later decades, the difference isn't so pronounced.
That last line is just the rookie class of 2010 in their 5th season: Curry, Harden, Ibaka, DeRozan, Matthews, Lawson ...

Re: NBA rookie classes in their first 5 seasons.

Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:09 am
by Mike G
So, which were the best rookie classes?
Since 1980, top 5 1st-year classes in 3 stats; 2-year cumulative; 3-yr, etc.

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. Ranked by Win Shares         Ranked by WS per 48 min.       Ranked by PER
. rookies
class   PER   WS/48   WS      class   PER   WS/48   WS      class   PER   WS/48   WS
2009   14.6   .088    92      1985   14.2   .091    88      2000   14.8   .083    63
1985   14.2   .091    88      1980   14.2   .089    85      1993   14.7   .071    68
1982   14.5   .083    87      2009   14.6   .088    92      1999   14.6   .079    33
1980   14.2   .089    85      2005   13.6   .084    68      2009   14.6   .088    92
1981   13.5   .070    76      1996   14.5   .084    69      1997   14.6   .074    54
                                       
. 2 years                                       
1982   15.8   .110   236      1985   15.5   .111   193      1998   16.2   .098   107
1980   15.3   .103   225      1982   15.8   .110   236      2000   16.1   .103   165
2009   15.1   .098   218      2000   16.1   .103   165      1982   15.8   .110   236
1981   14.4   .093   204      1980   15.3   .103   225      2011   15.7   .103   135
1990   14.8   .095   198      2011   15.7   .103   135      1999   15.6   .095   136
                                       
 . 3 years                                      
1982   16.1   .107   369      1985   17.1   .126   313      1985   17.1   .126   313
2009   15.7   .107   364      1980   16.4   .120   349      1997   16.6   .113   208
1980   16.4   .120   349      2004   16.3   .118   319      1980   16.4   .120   349
1981   14.9   .100   342      2006   16.0   .115   328      2004   16.3   .118   319
1990   15.7   .108   338      2003   15.8   .115   281      1982   16.1   .107   369
                                       
. 4 years                                       
1982   16.1   .110   501      1985   18.1   .143   461      1985   18.1   .143   461
1990   15.6   .107   482      2009   17.2   .129   479      2009   17.2   .129   479
2009   17.2   .129   479      1988   16.3   .125   332      2011   16.7   .112   355
1980   16.6   .123   476      1986   16.5   .124   399      1999   16.7   .114   416
2004   15.4   .104   472      1980   16.6   .123   476      2006   16.7   .116   455
                                       
.  5 years                                       
2009   16.5   .121   628      1985   17.9   .139   591      1985   17.9   .139   591
1982   16.1   .103   626      2008   16.3   .127   453      1997   17.2   .126   440
1990   16.2   .119   610      1997   17.2   .126   440      1986   17.1   .124   555
2004   15.2   .099   610      1986   17.1   .124   555      2000   16.9   .123   517
2002   16.1   .114   603      2000   16.9   .123   517      1992   16.7   .119   438