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2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 11:23 am
by Mike G
Pacers 1, Heat 0
107 - 96
Pythagorean wins .81 - .19, eWins .65 - .35

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Paul George    Ind   39  .706   28.0   5.5   8.0   4.7   .9   3.5   .0   1.95
.15   LeBron James   Mia   41  .658   24.1  10.2   4.2   2.7  2.7   3.6   .0   1.71
.14 Lance Stephenson Ind   41  .708   18.6   5.3   9.1   2.7   .9   2.2   .0   1.59
.13   David West     Ind   34  .731   25.7  11.1   4.4   2.2   .0   2.7   .0   1.85
.12   Roy Hibbert    Ind   38  .487   17.5  12.8   4.1   2.9   .0   1.2  1.0   1.54

.09   Dwyane Wade    Mia   39  .692   28.1   1.1   3.5   2.8   .0   2.8   .0   1.06
.07   Chris Andersen Mia   19  .875   32.2   8.1    .0   7.1  1.8   3.5  3.5   1.85
.07   C.J. Watson    Ind   18  .786   27.6  11.0   2.5    .0  1.9   4.6   .0   1.89
.06   Ray Allen      Mia   30  .667   14.8   6.7   4.4   2.3   .0   1.2   .0    .89
.04   George Hill    Ind   36  .625   16.1   3.0    .0   1.0  1.0   1.3  1.0    .48

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Luis Scola     Ind   14  .333    3.3  17.4   3.4    .0   .0    .0   .0    .97
.01   Mario Chalmers Mia   36  .300    3.8   2.3   5.3   4.1  1.0    .0  2.0    .16
.01   Shane Battier  Mia   16  1.50   11.8   5.3    .0   6.9   .0    .0   .0    .24
.00   Norris Cole    Mia   12  .000     .0   3.1   2.8   2.7  5.4    .0   .0    .00

-.01   Chris Bosh    Mia   32  .346    7.1   2.6   4.2   4.6   .0   1.1   .0   -.14
-.01   Rasual Butler Ind    9  .000     .0   5.3    .0    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.58
-.01   Udonis Haslem Mia   11  .000     .0   6.8    .0   5.9   .0    .0   .0   -.64
-.02   Ian Mahinmi   Ind    9  .000     .0   5.3    .0   3.6   .0   4.5  3.6   -.99
shooting: Ind .618 - .561 Mia
rebounds: Ind 38 - 29 Mia
turnovers: Mia 11 - 15 Ind

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Tue May 20, 2014 10:11 am
by Mike G
Spurs 1, Thunder 0
122 - 105
Pyth wins .88 - .12, eWins .69 - .31

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.15   Tim Duncan      SAS   29  .614   35.0  10.2   4.5   3.8   .0   1.7   .0   2.55
.13   Tony Parker     SAS   36  .519   13.2   3.5  13.8   1.0  1.0   1.4   .0   1.72
.12   Danny Green     SAS   27  1.143  30.1   6.3   1.5   4.1  2.7    .0   .0   2.19
.12   Kevin Durant    Okl   41  .667   24.2   9.1   4.1   3.6   .0   5.0   .9   1.37
.09 Russell Westbrook Okl   36  .500   20.4   5.8   7.0   3.1   .0   3.8   .0   1.15

.08   Manu Ginobili   SAS   27  .720   25.6   2.9   4.4   2.5  1.3   1.7   .0   1.49
.07   Derek Fisher    Okl   26  1.00   25.0   3.0   1.1   4.0  2.6   1.2   .0   1.35
.07   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   39  .471   12.2   6.5   2.3   1.9  2.8   1.3   .9    .88
.05   Tiago Splitter  SAS   19  .750   12.7  18.0    .0   3.9   .0   2.6  2.0   1.22
.03   Boris Diaw      SAS   20  .500   14.1   5.8   6.0   1.7  1.7   4.5   .0    .75

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Marco Belinelli SAS   16  .714   11.2   7.1   4.8    .0   .0    .0   .0    .93
.02   Patrick Mills   SAS   14  .833   14.0   2.7   5.5   9.4   .0    .0   .0    .63
.01   Reggie Jackson  Okl   28  .591   13.2   2.8   2.4   2.5   .0   1.2   .0    .25
.01   Nick Collison   Okl   16  .000     .0   8.0   2.3   2.3  4.7   2.2  2.3    .36
.01  Kendrick Perkins Okl   23  .714    8.1  16.6    .0   6.5   .0   4.5   .0    .24

.01   Caron Butler    Okl   26  .500    8.3   6.0   1.2   2.6   .0    .0   .0    .16
.01   Steven Adams    Okl   17  .667    6.7   4.5   1.9   3.9   .0    .0  2.0    .19
.00   Jeremy Lamb     Okl    7  .333    5.2    .0   4.4    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.19
-.02   Aron Baynes    SAS    7  .500    8.6   5.2    .0   9.1   .0  12.2   .0  -1.59
-.03  Thabo Sefolosha Okl   16  .000     .0   2.7    .0   2.3   .0    .0   .0   -.88
shooting: SA .639 - .600 Okl
rebounds: SA 40 - 37 Okl
turnovers: SA 12 - 15 Okl

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Wed May 21, 2014 11:14 am
by Mike G
Ind 1, Mia 1
avg score: Ind 95.0 - 91.5 Mia
Pyth wins 1.24 - .76, eWins 1.12 - .88

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.34   LeBron James   Mia   42  .588   23.4   8.0   5.5   2.6  2.2   3.3  1.3   1.94
.31 Lance Stephenson Ind   43  .667   23.2   5.6   7.7   3.4   .4   2.2   .0   1.73
.27   Dwyane Wade    Mia   37  .667   31.5   3.3   5.0   3.0   .5   3.3   .0   1.78
.24   Roy Hibbert    Ind   40  .525   15.2  13.3   1.7   1.4   .5   1.0   .9   1.43
.21   Paul George    Ind   41  .528   18.7   5.2   7.1   2.2   .4   2.8   .0   1.25

.18   David West     Ind   34  .500   16.5   9.2   4.8   3.2   .5   2.3   .5   1.25
.13   Chris Andersen Mia   24  .654   14.6  12.8    .8   2.9   .7   1.6  2.2   1.33
.13   George Hill    Ind   38  .667   15.3   4.4    .6   1.4  1.9    .5   .5    .79
.06   Ray Allen      Mia   27  .536    9.6   6.3   3.0   2.6   .6    .7   .6    .54
.04   Norris Cole    Mia   20  .611   10.8   1.0   3.0   1.8  2.6    .0   .0    .50

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   C.J. Watson    Ind   16  .500   12.9  10.1   1.3   2.2  1.1   3.4   .0    .58
.03   Chris Bosh     Mia   33  .409    8.2   4.9   2.5   3.9  1.1    .6   .6    .24
.03   Rasual Butler  Ind    9  .750   14.8   5.2    .0   2.0  2.0    .0   .0    .73
.01   Shane Battier  Mia   12  1.00   13.2   3.3   1.7   7.5   .0    .0   .0    .23
.01   Luis Scola     Ind   13  .222    3.0   8.9   3.5   2.7   .0    .0   .0    .16

.00   Udonis Haslem  Mia   15  .438    7.1   6.6   1.4   4.8   .0    .0   .0    .04
.00   Mario Chalmers Mia   30  .429    6.8   2.0   5.9   3.1   .6   3.4  1.2    .00
-.01   Ian Mahinmi   Ind    8  .250    1.4   8.8    .0   2.2   .0   2.3  2.2   -.29
shooting: Mia .567 - .546 Ind
rebounds: Ind 39.5 - 33.5 Mia
turnovers: Ind 11.5 - 12.0 Mia

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Thu May 22, 2014 11:04 am
by Mike G
Spurs 2, Thunder 0
avg score 117 - 91
Pyth wins 1.93 - .07, eWins 1.47 - .53

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.25   Danny Green     SAS   28  1.028  33.7   4.9   1.2   2.7  3.3    .0   .0   2.17
.25   Tim Duncan      SAS   29  .569   30.1  12.8   2.2   3.2   .0   2.0  1.3   2.04
.23   Tony Parker     SAS   32  .571   26.1   3.0   8.4   1.2  1.7   3.0   .0   1.75
.19   Manu Ginobili   SAS   24  .744   29.9   3.9   4.5   4.4  1.5    .8   .0   1.85
.18   Tiago Splitter  SAS   21  .714   18.3  17.0   3.1   1.8   .0   1.9  3.6   2.02

.15   Kevin Durant    Okl   35  .544   22.3   6.5   2.6   3.1   .5   4.0   .5   1.06
.13 Russell Westbrook Okl   33  .408   18.5   5.9   4.7   2.8  1.1   3.8   .0    .97
.12   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   28  .476   13.7   5.0   3.5   3.4  2.7   1.4  1.3   1.05
.09   Boris Diaw      SAS   23  .588   18.6   4.9   2.7   1.6   .8   1.6   .0    .92
.07   Jeremy Lamb     Okl   11  .652   27.4   1.7   2.3   1.7  3.4   1.6   .0   1.51

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Derek Fisher    Okl   24  .692   13.8   2.3   2.6   5.1  1.5    .7   .0    .59
.06   Marco Belinelli SAS   18  .481   14.4  10.6   3.5   2.0   .0   4.2   .0    .79
.04   Steven Adams    Okl   25  .650    9.1   7.3   1.0   2.8   .0   1.4  1.4    .40
.04   Reggie Jackson  Okl   28  .583   13.0   3.3   2.7   1.9   .0   1.9   .0    .33
.04  Kendrick Perkins Okl   19  .636    6.9  13.5    .0   8.0   .0   2.9  1.0    .45

.03   Caron Butler    Okl   23  .529   12.5   6.5   1.1   1.6   .0   2.3   .0    .34
.02   Patrick Mills   SAS   15  .313    4.2   7.4   5.1   4.7   .0    .0   .0    .36
.01   Aron Baynes     SAS   10  .500   11.7   5.9    .0   3.7  1.9   3.9   .0    .28
.01   Nick Collison   Okl   15  .200    1.1   6.9    .9   4.0  2.6   1.3  1.3    .18
.00   Perry Jones     Okl   13  .500    4.7   5.6    .0   4.1   .0    .0  1.3   -.01
-.03  Thabo Sefolosha Okl   13  .000     .0   3.1    .0   1.5  1.5   1.4   .0   -.53
shooting: SA .619 - Okl .491
rebounds: SA 46.5 - 37.5 Okl
turnovers: SA 11.0 - 15.0? Okl

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Sun May 25, 2014 11:01 am
by Mike G
Heat 2, Pacers 1
avg score 94.0 - 92.3
Pyth wins 1.68 - 1.32, eWins 1.59 - 1.41

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.58   LeBron James   Mia   41  .624   26.8   7.9   7.0   2.4   2.7   4.2   .9   2.28
.47   Dwyane Wade    Mia   37  .658   30.7   4.1   5.7   2.7   1.3   2.9   .3   2.06
.38 Lance Stephenson Ind   43  .605   17.0   8.0   6.7   3.3   1.1   2.4   .0   1.42
.28   Paul George    Ind   38  .509   18.6   4.8   6.6   2.9    .6   2.8   .0   1.17
.27   Roy Hibbert    Ind   39  .540   15.1  10.7   1.1   1.9    .6    .7   .3   1.10

.25   David West     Ind   34  .545   16.6   9.2   4.8   2.5    .7   3.4   .3   1.16
.18   Chris Andersen Mia   23  .667   12.1  13.9   2.0   3.5    .5   1.6  1.5   1.24
.15   Ray Allen      Mia   27  .689   16.0   5.3   2.3   2.2    .9    .9   .4    .89
.13   George Hill    Ind   32  .655   16.2   4.1   1.3   3.0   1.5   2.0   .4    .64
.07   Chris Bosh     Mia   30  .397    9.0   6.0   2.1   4.9   1.2    .9   .4    .35

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Norris Cole    Mia   24  .667   11.5   1.2   3.2   2.4   1.4    .5   .0    .38
.04   Udonis Haslem  Mia   16  .458    7.6   9.5   2.1   6.2    .0    .0   .0    .43
.03   Mario Chalmers Mia   25  .500    9.5   3.1   6.2   3.5    .5   4.3  1.0    .22
.03   Luis Scola     Ind   13  .400    8.4   7.3   2.2   3.6    .0    .0   .0    .35
.03   Rasual Butler  Ind   11  .750   14.3   2.7    .0   2.0   1.0    .0   .0    .39

.03   Ian Mahinmi    Ind    8  .500    5.8  11.4   1.7   1.4    .0   3.0  2.7    .50
.02   C.J. Watson    Ind   20  .500   10.0   6.3   1.4   2.3   1.2   2.5   .0    .20
.02   Shane Battier  Mia   11  .750   12.0   4.1   1.5   7.7    .0    .0   .0    .26
shooting: Mia .589 - .551 Ind
rebounds: Ind 36.0 - 32.0 Mia
turnovers: Mia 13.3 - 14.0 Ind

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Mon May 26, 2014 10:46 am
by Mike G
Spurs 2, Thunder 1
avg score 110.3 - 96.0
Pyth wins 2.59 - .41, eWins 2.05 - .95

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.38   Manu Ginobili   SAS   24  .788   35.1   3.0   6.0   4.8   1.9   1.5   .0   2.58
.34   Tim Duncan      SAS   29  .528   24.8  11.7   2.1   2.9    .0   2.2  1.2   1.87
.31 Russell Westbrook Okl   34  .458   20.8   6.8   6.7   3.3   1.8   4.4   .4   1.47
.28   Kevin Durant    Okl   35  .544   22.7   7.9   3.1   3.1    .7   4.2   .7   1.29
.27   Tony Parker     SAS   31  .506   18.8   2.4  10.3   1.6   1.2   3.7   .0   1.38

.27   Danny Green     SAS   27  .750   24.6   4.2   1.1   3.2   2.3    .0   .0   1.57
.26   Tiago Splitter  SAS   20  .704   15.2  16.7   4.4   1.9    .0   1.9  2.5   2.06
.17   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   29  .455   12.1   4.4   4.3   3.0   2.6   1.3  1.3    .94
.14   Boris Diaw      SAS   22  .481   13.5   6.4   6.3   1.0   1.0   2.1   .0   1.05
.13   Serge Ibaka     Okl   10  .833   22.5   8.9    .0   1.2   1.2   1.2  4.9   2.05

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Steven Adams    Okl   26  .606    8.7   8.7    .8   2.7    .0   1.3  2.6    .55
.08   Reggie Jackson  Okl   31  .563   13.5   3.6   4.0   2.3    .4   2.3   .0    .43
.08   Jeremy Lamb     Okl   12  .636   19.4   3.7   1.7   2.7   1.8    .9   .0   1.00
.06   Marco Belinelli SAS   17  .543   13.4   8.0   3.1   2.6    .0   3.3   .0    .53
.05   Derek Fisher    Okl   22  .525   10.0   4.4   2.9   3.7   1.6   1.1   .0    .38

.04   Patrick Mills   SAS   14  .364    5.0   5.6   6.7   4.7    .8    .8   .0    .40
.03   Caron Butler    Okl   21  .500   10.6   6.1   1.5   1.6    .0   1.6   .0    .20
-.00   Aron Baynes    SAS   10  .550   12.8   4.4    .0   2.1   1.1   3.3   .0   -.02
-.00 Kendrick Perkins Okl   17  .647    8.7  12.2    .0   8.9    .0   4.4   .7   -.04
-.01   Nick Collison  Okl   10  .200    1.2   6.7   1.2   3.9   2.6   1.3  1.3   -.08

-.02   Perry Jones    Okl   10  .500    4.6   4.7    .0   6.9    .0    .0  1.1   -.34
-.05  Thabo Sefolosha Okl    9  .000     .0   3.0    .0   1.5   1.5   1.5   .0   -.89
shooting: SA .575 - .511 Okl
rebounds: SA 43.0 - 42.3 Okl
turnovers: SA 12.7 - 16.0 Okl

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Tue May 27, 2014 10:06 am
by Mike G
Heat 3, Pacers 1
avg score 96.0 - 91.8
Pyth wins 2.58 - 1.42, eWins 2.29 - 1.71

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.95   LeBron James   Mia   40  .644   31.0   9.1   7.3   2.5  2.5   3.8   .7   2.86
.55   Dwyane Wade    Mia   37  .620   26.8   3.7   5.3   2.7  1.5   2.8   .2   1.79
.41 Lance Stephenson Ind   41  .581   15.3   7.6   6.3   3.8   .9   2.4   .0   1.22
.40   David West     Ind   35  .539   17.2  10.7   4.8   2.9   .5   3.0   .3   1.37
.37   Paul George    Ind   39  .531   19.1   5.5   5.4   2.8   .7   3.2   .0   1.14

.24   Roy Hibbert    Ind   35  .495   11.4  10.5   1.3   2.7   .5    .8   .5    .82
.22   Chris Bosh     Mia   31  .510   14.3   6.6   2.1   4.1   .9    .7   .6    .86
.19   Chris Andersen Mia   18  .667   12.3  14.2   2.1   3.5   .5   1.7  1.5   1.32
.17   Ray Allen      Mia   27  .615   14.3   5.6   2.3   1.9   .6   1.1   .3    .75
.17   George Hill    Ind   35  .662   15.6   3.4   2.1   2.9  1.0   1.9   .3    .57

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Norris Cole    Mia   25  .675   11.5   2.2   4.0   2.5  1.1    .4   .0    .52
.08   Luis Scola     Ind   13  .522   14.2   6.1   2.4   3.3   .0    .0   .0    .76
.08   Mario Chalmers Mia   25  .550    9.1   3.2   6.5   3.4   .7   3.3  1.1    .38
.05   Udonis Haslem  Mia   16  .471    7.6   9.6   1.6   5.5   .0    .0   .0    .39
.04   Ian Mahinmi    Ind   10  .600    8.8  10.1   2.0   4.2   .0   2.7  1.7    .49

.03   Shane Battier  Mia   10  .737   14.7   3.3   1.2   6.1   .0    .0   .0    .40
.02   Rasual Butler  Ind   11  .682   12.7   3.1    .0   2.3   .8    .0   .0    .25
-.02   C.J. Watson   Ind   20  .526    8.6   5.2   1.0   2.6   .9   2.3   .0   -.09
-.05   Rashard Lewis Mia   11  .000     .0   2.0   1.2   1.6  1.6    .0   .8   -.51
shooting: Mia .590 - .554 Ind
rebounds: Ind 36.3 - 32.5 Mia
turnovers: Mia 11.8 - 14.0 Ind

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Wed May 28, 2014 10:33 am
by Mike G
Spurs 2, Thunder 2
avg score: SA 105.8 - 98.3 Okl
Pyth wins 2.91 - 1.09, eWins 2.45 - 1.55

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.61 Russell Westbrook Okl   37  .515   24.1   5.9   7.6   3.2   2.5   3.7   .5   1.98
.51   Kevin Durant    Okl   37  .556   23.8   6.9   3.8   2.5   1.2   3.0   .7   1.68
.45   Tim Duncan      SAS   28  .516   21.3  11.2   3.1   2.6    .0   1.7  1.0   1.95
.41   Manu Ginobili   SAS   21  .695   30.5   2.7   5.5   5.7   2.2   1.3   .0   2.38
.28   Tony Parker     SAS   30  .522   18.3   2.3   9.4   1.5    .9   3.8   .0   1.15

.28   Danny Green     SAS   24  .706   22.2   4.3    .9   3.4   2.7   1.2   .4   1.38
.26   Boris Diaw      SAS   24  .513   14.8   8.5   5.8   1.5    .7   2.3   .0   1.31
.25   Tiago Splitter  SAS   20  .629   11.6  13.0   3.2   1.4    .0   1.9  2.3   1.48
.18   Serge Ibaka     Okl   16  .632   14.4   8.8    .6   2.3   1.1   1.1  3.9   1.34
.17   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   28  .465   12.1   5.1   3.6   2.6   2.0   1.3  1.0    .76

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.15   Cory Joseph     SAS    9  .703   34.2   3.3   2.5   6.4   1.1   2.2   .0   2.11
.13   Jeremy Lamb     Okl   14  .571   17.8   4.7   1.4   2.6   3.2    .6   .0   1.16
.10   Matt Bonner     SAS    8  .667   11.1   7.3   6.9   2.3    .0    .0  1.2   1.53
.09   Steven Adams    Okl   26  .585    8.4   9.0    .7   3.8    .0   1.0  2.4    .44
.09   Marco Belinelli SAS   19  .578   13.0   8.2   3.3   2.3    .0   2.9   .0    .57

.07   Derek Fisher    Okl   19  .545   11.0   4.5   3.6   3.4   1.4   1.0   .0    .48
.07   Reggie Jackson  Okl   26  .527   12.6   4.3   4.8   2.4    .3   2.8   .0    .33
.04   Jeff Ayres      SAS    6  .500    8.7  14.3    .0   4.6    .0    .0   .0    .86
.02   Caron Butler    Okl   22  .519   10.2   5.1   1.8   1.2    .0   1.2   .0    .13
.02   Patrick Mills   SAS   13  .300    5.5   5.0   5.9   4.1    .7    .7   .0    .16

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.00 Kendrick Perkins Okl   18  .684    7.4  13.7    .5   7.6    .0   3.6  1.5   -.02
-.01   Perry Jones    Okl    8  .583    8.1   4.9   1.2   7.0    .0    .0  1.2   -.09
-.05   Nick Collison  Okl    8  .200    1.1   5.8   1.2   5.6   2.3   1.1  1.1   -.67
-.05   Aron Baynes    SAS   11  .464    9.8   6.0    .0   4.1    .8   3.4   .0   -.57
-.07  Thabo Sefolosha Okl    7  .000     .0   3.0    .0   1.4   1.4   1.4   .0  -1.33
shooting: SA .554 - .526 Okl
rebounds: SA 42.5 - 42.3 Okl
turnovers: SA 12.8 - Okl 13.8

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Thu May 29, 2014 9:56 am
by Mike G
Heat 3, Pacers 2
avg score 94.8 - 92.0
Pyth wins 2.99 - 2.01, eWins 2.75 - 2.25

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.95   LeBron James   Mia   37  .602   27.3   8.1   7.1   3.2  2.2   3.8   .8   2.49
.71   Dwyane Wade    Mia   37  .616   25.6   4.7   5.7   2.5  1.6   3.3   .2   1.81
.65   Paul George    Ind   40  .558   23.2   5.4   4.5   2.5  1.6   3.1   .0   1.55
.55   David West     Ind   36  .559   18.2  10.1   4.0   3.0   .8   2.8   .4   1.45
.47 Lance Stephenson Ind   41  .557   14.2   6.9   5.9   3.5  1.1   2.3   .0   1.10

.35   Chris Bosh     Mia   33  .500   15.1   7.5   2.1   4.0  1.1    .9   .7   1.03
.30   Roy Hibbert    Ind   35  .475   11.0  11.2   1.5   2.9   .4   1.3   .6    .83
.24   Ray Allen      Mia   26  .618   15.9   5.1   2.1   1.9   .5    .8   .5    .89
.21   George Hill    Ind   36  .619   13.7   4.4   1.9   2.3  1.2   1.5   .2    .56
.20   Mario Chalmers Mia   27  .612    9.9   5.0   6.3   2.8   .8   2.4   .8    .73

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.19   Chris Andersen Mia   14  .667   12.1  13.6   2.0   3.5   .5   1.6  1.5   1.29
.10   Luis Scola     Ind   14  .500   13.7   6.8   2.3   3.4   .0    .5   .0    .72
.08   Udonis Haslem  Mia   15  .526    9.1   9.4   1.3   5.4   .0    .0   .0    .49
.06   Norris Cole    Mia   23  .614    9.3   2.1   4.3   3.0   .9   1.3   .0    .24
.04   Ian Mahinmi    Ind    8  .600    8.8   9.4   1.9   4.2   .0   2.7  1.6    .44

.01   Shane Battier  Mia   10  .737   11.0   3.2    .9   6.0   .7    .7   .0    .06
.00   Rasual Butler  Ind   10  .625   10.7   2.6    .0   2.1   .7    .8   .0   -.04
-.01   Rashard Lewis Mia   15  .529    8.0   3.5    .7   2.9  1.0   1.0   .5   -.08
-.05   C.J. Watson   Ind   18  .500    7.0   4.7    .9   2.6   .7   2.0   .0   -.25
shooting: Mia .586 - .548 Ind
rebounds: Ind 38.0 - 33.6 Mia
turnovers: Mia 12.6 - 14.0 Ind

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Fri May 30, 2014 11:24 am
by Mike G
Spurs 3, Thunder 2
avg score 108.0 - 96.4
Pyth wins 4.10 - .90, eWins 3.30 - 1.70

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.78 Russell Westbrook Okl   36  .531   25.6   5.7   6.7   3.3   2.7   3.5   .4   2.10
.67   Tim Duncan      SAS   28  .547   24.0  12.3   2.9   2.6    .0   1.8  1.0   2.27
.65   Kevin Durant    Okl   37  .554   24.0   6.5   3.0   2.0   1.2   2.6   .8   1.69
.63   Manu Ginobili   SAS   21  .745   33.5   3.5   6.1   5.0   1.7   1.0   .0   2.89
.39   Tony Parker     SAS   30  .511   18.7   2.9   8.2   1.5   1.0   3.5   .0   1.25

.38   Boris Diaw      SAS   25  .552   16.3   8.3   5.0   1.1    .8   2.3   .3   1.45
.34   Danny Green     SAS   24  .705   21.5   4.9   1.0   3.4   2.5   1.3   .6   1.39
.32   Tiago Splitter  SAS   18  .651   13.2  12.2   3.0   2.4    .0   1.6  2.0   1.65
.30   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   29  .514   13.6   5.9   3.2   2.8   2.0   1.3   .8    .99
.21   Cory Joseph     SAS    8  .698   32.0   4.2   4.4   4.8   1.6   2.5   .0   2.35

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.17   Serge Ibaka     Okl   18  .517   10.2   7.0   1.1   2.4   1.2    .8  3.6    .89
.10   Steven Adams    Okl   25  .612    8.2   8.5    .8   4.0    .0   1.1  2.0    .40
.09   Jeremy Lamb     Okl   15  .525   12.6   4.3   1.3   2.3   2.3    .5   .0    .56
.07   Reggie Jackson  Okl   27  .532   12.4   4.1   3.7   2.4    .3   2.6   .0    .24
.05   Marco Belinelli SAS   18  .509   10.8   6.8   3.0   2.3    .0   2.7   .0    .25

.04   Patrick Mills   SAS   14  .420    8.5   4.7   3.9   4.0    .5    .5   .0    .28
.04   Jeff Ayres      SAS    6  .500    7.3  12.6    .0   3.3    .0    .0   .0    .60
.03   Derek Fisher    Okl   18  .537   10.0   3.6   2.5   3.1   1.1   1.1   .0    .13
.03  Kendrick Perkins Okl   18  .619    5.6  13.8   1.1   7.9    .0   2.9  1.2    .14
.01   Matt Bonner     SAS   10  .400    4.3   4.5   4.0   2.8    .0    .0   .7    .09

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.01   Caron Butler   Okl   20  .475    8.1   5.7   1.3   2.1    .3   1.4   .3   -.04
-.02   Nick Collison  Okl    9  .438    4.3   6.3   2.1   5.3   1.5   1.5   .8   -.19
-.06   Aron Baynes    SAS    9  .464    9.2   7.6    .0   4.3    .7   4.4   .0   -.60
-.06   Perry Jones    Okl    8  .375    4.7   4.4    .8   7.6    .0    .8   .8   -.73
-.09  Thabo Sefolosha Okl    7  .091     .6   3.3    .0   1.1   1.1   2.1   .0  -1.32
shooting: SA .571 - .519 Okl
rebounds: SA 43.6 - 40.8 Okl
turnovers: SA 12.6 - 13.2 Okl

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Sat May 31, 2014 12:17 pm
by Mike G
Heat 4, Pacers 2
avg score 98.5 - 92.0
Pyth wins 4.28 - 1.72, eWins 3.64 - 2.36

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.22  LeBron James   Mia   36  .626   28.9   8.1   7.6   2.9  2.0   3.7   .9   2.72
.88   Dwyane Wade    Mia   36  .607   24.3   5.6   6.7   2.6  1.7   3.0   .2   1.98
.81   Paul George    Ind   41  .571   23.0   6.0   3.9   2.5  1.6   2.7   .1   1.60
.56   David West     Ind   36  .581   17.9   9.4   3.4   3.6   .7   2.9   .3   1.26
.56   Chris Bosh     Mia   33  .545   17.8   8.5   1.8   4.0  1.1    .8   .9   1.38

.44 Lance Stephenson Ind   40  .564   13.1   6.6   5.0   3.5   .9   2.2   .0    .87
.32   Chris Andersen Mia   14  .725   15.3  17.3   1.7   3.4   .4   1.4  1.3   1.86
.31   Roy Hibbert    Ind   35  .492   10.4  10.3   1.8   3.2   .4   1.5   .7    .71
.21   George Hill    Ind   36  .566   11.6   4.9   2.1   1.9  1.4   1.6   .2    .46
.20   Ray Allen      Mia   26  .598   13.4   4.7   2.4   2.2   .4   1.2   .4    .61

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.19   Mario Chalmers Mia   28  .557    8.3   4.7   6.6   2.9   .9   2.4   .7    .56
.11   Udonis Haslem  Mia   13  .591   11.4   9.6   1.2   5.9   .0    .0   .0    .66
.08   Luis Scola     Ind   13  .471   11.9   6.2   2.1   3.1   .0    .5   .0    .49
.05   Norris Cole    Mia   22  .580    8.5   2.0   4.8   2.9   .8   1.5   .0    .17
.04   Rashard Lewis  Mia   17  .554   10.4   3.7    .5   2.6  1.1    .8   .7    .19

.03   Ian Mahinmi    Ind    7  .600    7.8   8.8   1.8   3.9   .0   2.5  1.5    .28
-.00   Rasual Butler Ind    9  .654   10.3   3.1    .0   1.8   .6    .7   .0   -.04
-.01   Shane Battier Mia   12  .815   12.8   2.4    .6   5.7   .5   1.5   .0   -.04
-.08   C.J. Watson   Ind   19  .500    6.0   4.3   1.0   2.2   .6   1.7   .0   -.33
shooting: Mia .602 - .551 Ind
rebounds: Ind 36.3 - 34.2 Mia
turnovers: Mia 12.3 - 13.5 Ind

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:26 am
by Mike G
Spurs 4, Thunder 2
avg score 108.7 - 98.2
Pyth wins 4.77 - 1.23, eWins 3.88 - 2.12

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
1.02 Russel Westbrook Okl   37  .531   26.8   5.5   6.8   3.5   3.1   4.0   .3   2.25
.84   Tim Duncan      SAS   30  .543   22.5  13.4   2.7   2.4    .4   1.4  1.0   2.28
.80   Kevin Durant    Okl   39  .552   23.8   6.9   2.8   2.0   1.1   3.1  1.1   1.65
.69   Manu Ginobili   SAS   23  .664   28.9   4.5   6.0   4.8   2.3   1.5   .0   2.45
.51   Boris Diaw      SAS   27  .590   19.8   7.7   4.3   2.0    .9   2.4   .2   1.55

.41   Tony Parker     SAS   28  .516   18.7   3.2   7.3   1.3    .9   3.6   .0   1.19
.40   Danny Green     SAS   26  .646   18.5   4.9   1.5   3.3   2.8   1.4   .9   1.25
.40   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   31  .483   13.0   7.1   3.3   2.9   1.8   1.4   .8   1.03
.32   Tiago Splitter  SAS   17  .647   14.0  12.2   2.7   2.5    .0   1.4  2.1   1.55
.21   Serge Ibaka     Okl   23  .548   10.8   5.4   1.5   2.9    .8    .8  3.4    .75

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
.20   Cory Joseph     SAS    8  .653   28.0   3.8   4.6   4.2   1.4   2.1   .0   1.96
.13   Reggie Jackson  Okl   31  .555   13.5   3.9   3.4   3.0    .2   2.4   .0    .34
.08   Jeremy Lamb     Okl   13  .478   11.0   3.8   1.7   2.6   2.6    .4   .0    .49
.06   Marco Belinelli SAS   16  .525   11.4   6.7   2.8   2.1    .0   2.5   .0    .32
.04   Patrick Mills   SAS   15  .404    6.7   4.8   4.0   3.9   1.6    .8   .0    .24

.04   Steven Adams    Okl   23  .588    7.3   7.8    .7   3.9    .0   1.3  1.8    .16
.04   Jeff Ayres      SAS    5  .500    7.2  13.3    .0   3.3    .0    .0   .0    .55
.02   Derek Fisher    Okl   20  .548    8.7   4.2   2.2   3.4   1.1   1.1   .0    .07
.01   Matt Bonner     SAS   11  .438    6.2   5.6   3.2   3.9    .0    .6   .6    .08
-.01   Caron Butler   Okl   17  .475    8.1   5.4   1.3   2.1    .3   1.4   .3   -.03

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e488
-.01 Kendrick Perkins Okl   19  .619    4.4  12.1   1.3   7.3    .0   2.3  1.0   -.04
-.01   Nick Collison  Okl    8  .438    4.1   7.1   2.1   5.8   1.5   1.5   .7   -.10
-.04   Aron Baynes    SAS    8  .464    9.2   8.0    .0   4.3    .7   4.4   .0   -.40
-.06   Perry Jones    Okl    7  .375    4.6   4.1    .8   7.6    .0    .8   .8   -.67
-.08  Thabo Sefolosha Okl    6  .091     .5   3.1    .0   1.1   1.1   2.1   .0  -1.15
shooting: SA .558 - .523 Okl
rebounds/48: SA 43.7 - 40.8 Okl
turnovers: SA 12.8 - 14.2 Okl
With the one overtime, games averaged 48.83 minutes, or 488.3 player-minutes: Avg eW/488 = 1.00

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2014 2:30 pm
by xkonk
I wonder how rare it is for a team to out-shoot, out-rebound, and out-possess (out-not-turnover?) their opponent, winning by an average of around 10 points a game, and still need 6 games to take a series.

Re: 2014 Conf. finals -- Ind-Mia and Okl-SA

Posted: Sun Jun 01, 2014 8:12 pm
by Mike G
The pythagorean wins ratio 4.77/1.23 = 3.88/1
So the most likely scenario with such scoring disparity is 4-1.
It's about as likely that it's a 4-0 sweep, as it is 4-2.

None of the factors -- shooting%, rebounds, and TO -- were all that great in the Spurs' favor. Not enough to equal +10 ppg.
I used Team Turnovers from ESPN. They're equal to individual TO, plus 1 (in 6 games) for the Spurs. Does that seem plausible?

The only other disparity to account for the point differential is that rebounds are not adequately described by individual Reb. To make eWins work, I had to assume more 'team rebounds' for the Spurs.
Last night, TmReb were 14-8 for SA, according to Yahoo Sports. That seems kind of huge.