APBRmetrics

The list has been updated from last year to include the 2013-14 NBA Season.

http://matthewmurphy1.wordpress.com/201 ... a-players/

nice to see the likes of sidney moncrief, ben wallace, and adrian dantley rated high, they deserve it...

bchaikin wrote:nice to see the likes of sidney moncrief, ben wallace, and adrian dantley rated high, they deserve it...

Now that the draft is over, I'll do a few more draft related things - then I think my next focus will be completely finishing all the historical player ratings. I only have NBA regular season from '80 done - I'll do the playoffs next, which will be pretty easy - and then the older seasons, which will be much harder with all the playing time errors that I have to find and fix (especially in the 60s & earlier).

I'm pretty excited about the results, especially including weighted playoff results.

D-rell wrote:The list has been updated from last year to include the 2013-14 NBA Season.

http://matthewmurphy1.wordpress.com/201 ... a-players/

Last year, I recorded your rankings according to --

Career Portfolio EVAL (CPE) a.) Ranking system that multiplies player raw ratings by a career % factor (inclduing AWARDS shares, AS appearances, HOF factor, ect.) to measure career results with raw potential.

And this year, I notice the following changes:
- Tim Duncan drops from 5 to 6; displaced by LeBron, who moved from 9 to 5
- Also passed by LeBron, Kobe remains #7, while Magic drops below him to #8

- Unchanged: Garnett (17), Nowitzki (23), Wade (25)
- Durant from 46 to 26.
- Gervin from 27 to 31, dropping behind Cousy, Payton, Iverson.
- Dwight from 39 to 34. Chris Paul 43 to 38.

- Nash drops from 51 to 52, switching places with Heinsohn.
- Pierce unchanged at 53; Parker from 73 to 54; Ray Allen overtaken by McAdoo.
- Bosh passes Mourning and Wilkens to 62.

- Carmelo from 91 to 81.
- Carter drops from 92 to 94, passed by no-one. Amar'e drops off the chart (from 95).
- This results in advances by Rodman, Chet Walker, Gus Johnson, Gallatin, Hagan, Richmond, Sikma, and Dumars.

Did Kobe really have a much better year than Amar'e?
http://bkref.com/tiny/jiwkt

Mike G wrote:

D-rell wrote:The list has been updated from last year to include the 2013-14 NBA Season.

http://matthewmurphy1.wordpress.com/201 ... a-players/

Last year, I recorded your rankings according to --

Career Portfolio EVAL (CPE) a.) Ranking system that multiplies player raw ratings by a career % factor (inclduing AWARDS shares, AS appearances, HOF factor, ect.) to measure career results with raw potential.

And this year, I notice the following changes:
- Tim Duncan drops from 5 to 6; displaced by LeBron, who moved from 9 to 5
- Also passed by LeBron, Kobe remains #7, while Magic drops below him to #8

- Unchanged: Garnett (17), Nowitzki (23), Wade (25)
- Durant from 46 to 26.
- Gervin from 27 to 31, dropping behind Cousy, Payton, Iverson.
- Dwight from 39 to 34. Chris Paul 43 to 38.

- Nash drops from 51 to 52, switching places with Heinsohn.
- Pierce unchanged at 53; Parker from 73 to 54; Ray Allen overtaken by McAdoo.
- Bosh passes Mourning and Wilkens to 62.

- Carmelo from 91 to 81.
- Carter drops from 92 to 94, passed by no-one. Amar'e drops off the chart (from 95).
- This results in advances by Rodman, Chet Walker, Gus Johnson, Gallatin, Hagan, Richmond, Sikma, and Dumars.

Did Kobe really have a much better year than Amar'e?
http://bkref.com/tiny/jiwkt

Okay, I was waiting to go over some of the "career evaluation" shifts, I figured that spark points of debate. I'll explain the raw ratings adjustments. First off, I noticed I forgot to add in some defensive awards for Michael Jordan so his CPE increased from 141.62 to 142.74 (+1.1%)

NOTABLES

- LeBron shifts up to 4th 90.92 from 8th 79.13 change (11.79%). LeBrons awards shares increased, as did the ceiling on his offensive potential which is the primary reason for this increase.

- Kobe Bryant remains 6th but the CPE increased to 86.236 from 84.549 (+1.6%). The low volume of stats didn't decrease his offensive ability much, and his AS selection, despite his refusal to make an appearance, it increased his awards shares. He did have a fairly impressive second half '12-'13.

- Magic drops behind Kobe, Lebron, to 7th all-time CPE.

- Tim Duncan shifted one slot down to 8th, although his CPE increased 83.231 from 80.121 (+3.1%). Duncan's raw ability points only moderately increased (+0.5%), his career performance factor (which is multiplied by the raw abilities points to determine CPE) increased 1% by adding a 5th Title to the resume.

- Kevin Garnett remains 17th in the rankings, but his raw ability points saw a moderate increase (+0.3%), and his career performance factor declined .00001, resulting in a net CPE increase of (+0.1%)

- Both Nowinski and Wade had CPE increases +1.4%,+1.3% respectively. Wade remains 25th in the rankings, while Nowinski jumps Rick Barry one slot to 23rd.

- Durant, as mentioned makes a major jump from 46th 17.754
up to 26th 29.673 (12%) in the all-time CPE. Durant not only saw a 5.8% increase in raw ratings, largely in offensively ability, but his first MVP award spiked his career performance factor 12.1%.

- Dwight Howard jumps 5 spots almost 5% CPE. Although Howard saw some small decreases in career defensive ability, he saw an increase in awards shares, plus last year I found that I forgot to add in that AS appearance.

- Also Amar'e declined 1.2% CPE, Vince Carter CPE declined 0.2%, and many of the other player shifts in the rankings you mentioned were due to the up or down shifts of other players.

Nowitzki, not Nowinski

^
Exactly. Thanx

Also, I just added a feature ADJUSTED CPE & Surplus/Deficit (at the bottom of the blog page), which allows for a simple calculation of whether a player over- or under achieved or is over- or under rated or some of both in his career and to what extent. The numbers of surplus/Deficit are subject to interpretation whether or the player over/under achieved or is over/under rated. I haven't had the time to figure how to better determine that difference.

Ex.

Adjusted CPE Surplus/Deficit

- Adrian Dantley (-25.093) Dantley was grossly underrated in his career.

- Clyde Drexler (-10.592) Drexler underachieved based off his raw ability. I know Jordan was in the way, but..

- Grant Hill (-7.692) injuries.

- Patrick Ewing (-7.567) underachieved. Injuries.

- Wes Unseld (-5.908) Many defensive stars are underrated because they lack in offensive ability, but they have ability to affect a game nonetheless.

- James Worthy (-4.861) Underrated. I think having Magic as a teammate took some of his light, same can be said of Scottie Pippen (60th), along Jordan.

- Henry Gallatin (+9.875) Overrated. Many players from the 50s, early 60s are a bit overrated in this list. I plan to fix this by adding in a League Quality measure into the adj. CPE.

- Dwight Howard (-10.385) Difficult to tell with some active players in these calculations because raw ability ratings are assumed for the entire career but their careers are only partially finished.