Page 1 of 1
Winning percentages associated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:19 pm
by Crow
https://chiningchang.wordpress.com/2014/06/20/post-1/
3pt FG% more helpful than attempts, offensive rebounding (at least off reb totals) pretty negative, steals hardly mattered (in face of the talk about how important steals are to team wins and draft pick future success?), spending more and being older look like generally successful strategies.
Re: Winning percentages assoicated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Sun Jun 29, 2014 10:19 pm
by Mike G
OReb% has -.32 correlation with FG%.
Bad team shooting is likely a bad team W%, but they often crash the offensive glass.
Re: Winning percentages assoicated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:39 pm
by Statman
Mike G wrote:OReb% has -.32 correlation with FG%.
Bad team shooting is likely a bad team W%, but they often crash the offensive glass.
Yeah, I think this is a bit the correlation, also with steals.
Bad teams often don't shoot as well or efficiently - so maybe the coach tries to get big guys in there that can get those O rebounds to make up for the poor shooting?
Bad defensive team coaches KNOW that they're a bad defensive team - so maybe schemes/players are utilized that are riskier to get more steals because if the offense is allowed to work for their shot there's a good chance for success? Great defensive teams don't have to take such risks - steals happen if they happen in the scheme, not by risks outside of/extending the scheme.
Re: Winning percentages assoicated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:44 pm
by Statman
Mike G wrote:OReb% has -.32 correlation with FG%.
Bad team shooting is likely a bad team W%, but they often crash the offensive glass.
Actually - looking at the chart - I THINK team TOTALS are being used (not ORB%) - which would completely explain the negative correlation - BAD teams shoot worse, many more OReb opportunities. It would also give better defensive teams better D rebound totals.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's what's going on here.
Re: Winning percentages associated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:40 pm
by Crow
The chart does use off. reb. totals as I tried to indicate.
Re: Winning percentages associated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:26 pm
by Mike G
That's correct, as Crow observed earlier. I looked at correlations with OReb%, since that would not by definition indicate more missed shots.
Re: Winning percentages associated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:10 am
by Statman
Crow wrote:The chart does use off. reb. totals as I tried to indicate.
Sorry Crow - missed it.
Re: Winning percentages associated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:54 pm
by Mike G
From this page:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... misc_stats
Correlations with SRS, 2013-14
Code: Select all
corre stat
.829 ORtg
.697 -DRtg
.686 eFG%
.671 -Opp eFG%
.539 Age
.505 Attendance
.420 FT/FGA
.336 DReb%
.314 -Opp FT/FGA
.312 3PAr
.284 FTr
.195 -TO%
.134 SOS
.067 Opp TO%
.008 Pace
-.004 OReb%
For a couple of these, there's almost certainly no causation; just correlation.
Over the last 10 seasons:
Code: Select all
correl stat
.746 ORtg
.713 -DRtg
.672 eFG%
.671 -Opp eFG%
.365 DReb%
.297 -TO%
.250 -Opp FT/FGA
.189 FT/FGA
.090 Opp TO%
-.010 OReb%
-.068 Pace
Re: Winning percentages associated with team stats in 2013-4
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:40 am
by Crow
Appreciate the crunched data. So for this season the off rtg correlation moved a good amount above historical avg. While def rtg slipped a bit. Would also be interested in comparing for age, 3pt rate and ft/fga, if you are interested too and willing.