APBRmetrics

Win increase next season over last, not win % increase.

Who is your guess and how big an increase?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Currently projecting 55 vs last year's 33.

A distant second in my current projections is Milwaukee, 28.5 over last year's 15.

I agree with the Cavs but for a 15 game increase.

Cavs pretty clearly the obvious pick here...

But what will they do in playoffs? As currently staffed, I think they have 50% or better chance to lose in first round.

Crow wrote:But what will they do in playoffs? As currently staffed, I think they have 50% or better chance to lose in first round.

i would happily give you action on that if youd like

Not a gambling man (to date).

By Rapm, the only much above neutral last season were LeBron and Varejao.

Miller and Jones changes things a bit. Will re-visit prediction when roster is final or at least more so.

Even though I'm not a believer in their team without Love, the Cavs are probably looking at 15 W improvement on the downside, so it'll be hard for anyone else to beat. I guess the Hawks would be my next choice, it's conceivable they rock a 50 W+ season next year

LeBron has had 17 and 16 eWins the last 2 years, so I figure him at 15-17 this year. If he's above that, he's worn out for the playoffs.
Mike Miller might repeat his 2-ish eWins of the last couple years.

Deng is gone? He's been good for 8-9 eW per year.
Hawes is gone? Along with his 5-6 / yr.
CJ Miles is gone with his 2-4 eWins
Zeller and Jack, each at 2-3 eWins, are dismissed in favor of untried guys.

Who, besides LeBron, have they gained, that is going to give them a bunch more wins?

So, how about the Bulls? Gasol should be an upgrade over Boozer, yes?
They lost Augustin but gained 4 draft picks, including #11 and #23.

Before last season, anticipating Rose's return, the braintrust here predicted that they'd improve by about 12 wins over 2012-13.
Noah and Gibson made strong gains; Butler and Hinrich proved they are reliable; and Rose may actually return and stay on the floor.

Without Rose, they're thin in the backcourt. With him, they're almost an allstar team.

Mike G wrote:So, how about the Bulls?

I thought of the Bulls as well, but if we're talking increase in number of wins, the issue is that they were too good last year. Which isn't to say that maybe they won't win ~60 games, but it would be relatively easier for a bad team to pick up more wins.

With that idea in mind, how about the Pistons? Taking the coach RAPM at face value (and perhaps this example suggests we shouldn't), adding SVG to last year's team should have made them nearly an average squad, which would be about 10 more wins than they got. With some Drummond improvement and a little other help, they could fight for the right to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

Mike G wrote:So, how about the Bulls? Gasol should be an upgrade over Boozer, yes?
They lost Augustin but gained 4 draft picks, including #11 and #23.

Before last season, anticipating Rose's return, the braintrust here predicted that they'd improve by about 12 wins over 2012-13.
Noah and Gibson made strong gains; Butler and Hinrich proved they are reliable; and Rose may actually return and stay on the floor.

Without Rose, they're thin in the backcourt. With him, they're almost an allstar team.

I don't have faith in Rose's future health.

I don't have faith in McDermott's defense.

I like their coach, I just have a vibe that the stars just aren't going to align right here.

My RPM projections have an improved Irving/Thompson, decent minutes from Wiggins, huge Bennett improvement (from nearly worst to "pretty bad").
I have Varejao producing slightly less this season (injury and RPM decline are probably).

Mike Miller should also contribute some above "replacement level."

bbstats wrote:My RPM projections have an improved Irving/Thompson, decent minutes from Wiggins, huge Bennett improvement (from nearly worst to "pretty bad").
I have Varejao producing slightly less this season (injury and RPM decline are probably).

Mike Miller should also contribute some above "replacement level."

My projections were close to yours. Had 56, although depending on the last bit of fill-ins could change slightly. I'm not as gung-ho on the current iteration of the Cavs without Love (as far as title equity) as other people. But they're going to be very good.

In my version of eWins, which I'm now dubbing kWins to avoid confusion with Mike's stat, I had Lebron being worth 14.7 wins last season -- and that was a bit of a down year for him compared to the previous two. Gotta agree that Cleveland is likely to make the biggest jump in win totals for next year. Lebron is replacing not damn much at SF. And his teammates tend to shoot better when he's around. I think Cleveland jumps by 15-20 wins next season.